Monday, June 29, 2015

Position Management-QQQ Puts

I'm looking at the July 17th QQQ $110 puts that are now at a +60% gain. Any loss of momentum or temporary hang up around the SPX 150-ma intraday (even though I believe we slice through it this week to the downside), I may look at resetting the July 17th expiration for something longer, this greatly depends on what very near term intraday trade looks like.

As for futures where we have the most information right now...
 NQ/NDX Futures 5 min chart shows the reversal process from Tuesday/Wednesday after the initial price strength Monday of last week and the failure of the top moving to stage 4 decline. The 5 min chart is showing confirmation right now which is why I'm considering closing and re-setting the position to take gains and "maybe" get better positioning with a longer expiration.

 The NQ 3 min chart shows the early bounce attempt or very limited intraday 3C accumulation of the lows which looks like it wants to make a gap fill, but even that seems to be starting to fail right now.

The QQQ 1 min chart has caught up, you can see a little of the positive divergence late Friday which had me wondering if we see some price strength early Monday, while we have a nasty gap down, the attempt to fill it is indeed price strength.

However the 3 min Futures chart looks as if it may be failing already so we'll see as the 3 and 5 min charts in the cash market catch up. If it looks like we may spend some time in the area, I'll be closing the QQQ puts and booking the gain and looking for a new entry with a longer expiration.

However if it looks like we are going to see more IMMEDIATE downside, I'll obviously want to leave them open and there are hints like the 3 min futures chart and these two intraday cash market charts, that this may be the case.
 IWM late day divergence from Friday. As I said Friday, this is no where near the strength of thee previous Friday in which the forecast was for early price strength on Monday as we saw.

The IWM 1 min intraday looks to already be failing.

As does the 1 min intraday SPY.

I'm just trying to preserve the most profits and allow for extra gains if it looks probable, but I would like to extend the expiration on the QQQ puts beyond July 17th soon.

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