Now Is the Time?

I'm seeing a lot of activity suggesting we are seeing the top of the bounce or the start of the top. So the shorts I've been talking about, maybe start adding to and getting into those positions but remain conservative until we get confirmation, but we are acting now on the shorts.

We are almost there

I'm not crazy about how the longs are performing, I'd say any chance you get to make a buck, take it soon-the rally wont last that long. Go to Trade-Guild.net and look at the 10 charts I posted including the short on GS!

For now, I'm putting a couple of shorts out there, but it's still hold mode until this bounce starts to roll-over then load em up.

Shorts

Here's a few I'd consider getting a position started in-not huge or if you have, add conservatively-PWRD and EBIX both short.

Not Lazy, Disciplined

Yesterday I wrote,
"The dollar remains strong but 3C suggests a pullback, which may give the market room to bounce."

An intraday chart of 3C-you can see on Friday it didn't make higher highs and thus gave me a warning of the reversal. This is one of the few indicators you will see (I created it) that has the power of prediction rather than reaction. If you'd like to try it, click on the links below and let them know that Trade Guild sent you and then email me.




Today, the market gave us a clue as to it's intensions. This is why I mixed it up yesterday. Hopefully the longs will move on the bounce, at that point, I'll be watching for signs of the end of the bounce-we sell the longs, add to or initiate shorts and we start making money on a market downtrend. So for now, I'm not adding anything, if your position is okay (email me if you need an opinion) then I'd say hold what ya got. We are letting our shorts bounce, I kept them rather small anticipating this so we'll ride that out and we are about 60% in terms of positions long and bout 60% in terms of capital short. When this is all said and done, I'd like to be near 85% short of invested capital. I'll let you know when I see a turn in 3C, but if the market bounce gives you a gift on the long side-20,30% gain or more-Take it and be prepared to start picking up shorts. I'm not sure how I'm going to give them to you because nearly all will line up the same day and I have over 200 excellent looking candidates.


Is this a bounce or more? 1580 of the Russell 2000 closed up-Strong right? No, they closed up on diminishing volume-the weakest of the 4 possible price volume relationships, this is a market that looks ready to bounce, but not very enthusiastic about it. Those kind of numbers are seen at the end of an up-move, not the start!


OF all NYSE stocks roughly 1650 closed down today, 3089 closed up on less volume and 1547 closed up on increasing volume-that is heavily lopsided bearish. Of the NASDAQ 100-77 of them closed up on lighter volume-EVEN WORSE! The Dow -30-26! The S&P-500 386 on lighter volume and only 65 on heavier.


You see what I mean-the market is petrified to move up. So be patient. Take a look at some of the past ideas that haven't moved for short term long trades, you can always run them by me or just wait. A Huge opportunity to back up the truck is days a way.

TRADES FOR TOMORROW

The market is still ugly, we could bounce or see the S&P head to the $1030 area before we get a meaningful bounce, I hope it comes sooner.

I've listed longs and shorts, but don't be afraid to tighten stops or use limit orders close to the stop level, that is probably the best tactic right now until we see what this market is going to do, but you do want short exposure. I really like EBIX (S) right here.

Other positions that look interesting include: MEG, GNBK, OESX all long and JEF (S).

The dollar remains strong but 3C suggests a pullback, which may give the market room to bounce.

Any questions-Email me as usual.

Brandt@Trade-Guild.net

Here's where we stand

If you have been following this site since early on, you probably have heard me call this that "Cats and Dogs Rally".

Here's how it works, there's a period toward the end of a bull run or bull market where people feel like the new bull has taken off and they sat it out and missed it, so they look for cheap stocks to buy up and smart money knows this. The stock pattens prove it. It's an explosive period because they are low volume, low price stocks that move huge.

If you follow me on Trade-Guild you know I've been saying for months this is a "Historic" bear market rally-not the start of a bull and I expect new lows to be made. Well make hey while the sun is shining and that's what we did. The fact is, over the last week, especially since earnings started with Alcoa's flop, sentient has finally flipped and stocks and rallies have nothing to do with value, and everything to do with market sentiment. So I'm not going to list anymore of the CAT and DOG longs. If I did, I'd just be repeating what's already on the list. A few that re still viable IMO:

SSN, CXM, MOVE, PEBO may have some more upside after that nice run, CRTX, MNTG, CMM, AMCC, and ENG.

If you have one not on the list and it looks ok or you want a second opinion just email me, then by all means, hold onto it, but be very conservative in how much you put into it. The last chance run for any of these stocks is entirely dependent on a market bounce which I think we may get.

Here's the new reality. the focus here is going to switch, not because I want it to, it's because you take what the market offers. The watchlist I look at and add to every night is about 400 stocks, out of which 30% are doing nothing 20% look like longs, and 50% or maybe more are stunningly amazing short set-ups that are 3 days of bounce away from picture perfect entries.

Stocks fall faster then they rise because fear is stronger then greed. These are exceptionally high probability shorts and with a bounce, they'll be in perfect position with little risk. They won't make you 20% in a day, but they will make you money and as we go along, I'll show you how to make more than 100% in a short position. I'll also start giving you the Ultra ETF's that I think are going to make a lot of money.

So it's sad that the CATS and DOGS fun is over, but now is the time that we can make bigger commitments to longer term positions and make a lot of money over the next several months.

BUT! For now, you have to be patient. That is the only edge you have over Wall Street, patience. Wait for the bounce. I have hundreds of stocks that are perfect shorts-look at GS and JPM-they are picture perfect, if the just bounce a little. So don't swing for the fences, tke whatever the market gives you in these longs if it bounces and take it fairly quick. Then get ready to back up the truck and get serious about committing capital to high probability shorts.

The second shoe is about to drop.

The Market Waits

Even not knowing about tonight's State of the Union Address, it's clear the market is waiting on something and it looks exceptionally dangerous right not. I have 100 shorts that need a bounce to be perfect set-ups, but they ned the bounce and the market yesterday at the close was ugly. So play it safe right now-be conservative. We'll know soon enough.

Strange Times

The market is due for a bounce in my opinion, it looks like it wants to bounce, but it is not acting well-that makes this a very dangerous time. There are a ton of great looking shorts that if they just bounced, would be perfect. On the other hand-the market doesn't need to bounce, it's not oversold, it can continue down. So it's a tough call right now, but I'm going with "wait for the bounce". In the meantime-longs that still look good to me:

SSN, TXCC, MBRK, CXM, CRTX, FOLD, MTLK and BOFL

All the other ides will be on the spread sheet, just be patient, you'll get a fat pitch. And if you do go for the shorts now, thinking you'll miss the bus, be careful and limit those positions so they can absorb a bounce.

Good luck.

I Hate Mondays

They usually carry over whatever the market's behavior was on Friday-usually. There have been M&A announcements which are almost lways typical for a Mondy and there have been some recently-that gives the mrket a boost.

Are we oversold? Not even close-especially not when considering how ovverbought the market has been. However there's support right at the Oct. highs and they're not far away. So a bounce may be coming soon.

Until then I don't want to give out to many positions as the market movement is going to cut about half the probability, but for sure check out



SSN, CXM, PSUN, MBRK, FOLD, and CTIC all long.

**Here's a few more-some are familiar from older lists but still good-all long




NCS
GBNK
MOVE
TIBB
PEBO
CRTX
IDRA
TXCC
CMM
WSBF
TSFG
MNTG


No shorts today, we'll wait for the bounce first.

Jan. 22 Trades

Here's the newest trades for Friday Jan 22, 2010