Looking for INTRADAY strength in SLV/GLD

they may be worth a day trade on the upside if you are really on top of your game, they tend to be moving opposite the market recently.

Some Leading Indicators

So far so good here too...

First of all an intraday indicator I mentioned earlier looks like the market will do as expected.

The NYSE TICK Indications show the market likely to pullback, this is my own custom version, but as we saw earlier, that was the highest intraday probability as TICK fell out of the channel.

Longer term, but not too long...

 Commodities are weaker today relatively vs SPX, this seems to be a discounting of the War Premia.

Yields and the SPX are almost perfectly in line so the magnetic pull of yields on equities right now is pretty non-existient.

Sentiment from HIO is looking even better while retail is still bearish and easily spooked, it would take a heck of a strong day to get them trusting the market again, but likely not more than a day as they are VERY fickle right now from being thrashed around.

 VXX w/ an inverted SPX shows there's not much difference in performance of the VIX futures today, the 5 min VIX futures chart I showed earlier is the most important and it's suggesting the market is preparing for a move higher.

HYG Credit is leading the SPX so this is what we want to see, but it's short term like a bounce, it's not a week or month long divergence so we can gain some scale perspective.

Finally (for now), I'm happy to see the skittish (because of the thin liquidity) High Yield Credit (A Smart Money Risk Asset) to be diverging even higher vs the SPX, this shows smart money seems to be preparing for a move higher as well, most technical traders have no idea to look for this.

So I think the thesis we have been working on is still good, it's a matter oof trade management, some new positions and finding set ups we like for the big picture on a bounce as well as making sure nothing creeps up on us that we could have controlled (unlike a surprise attack on Syria, but we may even be able to read that if smart money knows it).

Gold Miners: GDX / DUST Update

I've been bearish on Gold miners, specifically GDX, I haven't included Junior miners in my analysis, there's no particular reason, I just haven't.

I have a Sept GDX Put open, I had wished I had gone with the 3x short gold miners ETF, DUST because I see this as a longer trending position than an option can catch, eventually I did open that equity position which is doing great so far.

The short story is I think GDX short/DUST long look excellent, there may be some more whiplash chop, but they have solid position-type trade signals.

Here's a look, remember we want to see 3C negative divergences for GDX and positive divergences for DUST as GDX is long and DUST is a short/bear 3x leveraged ETF.

 This is GDX 1 min intraday, it saw a small positive on the open and is pretty much in line, slightly negative, I suspect it will range around for a bit.

The 5 min with a clear negative at yesterday's gap up and in line status now so there's nothing on the chart that I see to interfere with the next "Highest probability" chart.

The 60 min GDX shows a cycle from stage 4 to 1, then 2 and now 3, the next stage is 4 (Decline) from this huge leading negative divergence, but this is in shorter timeframes as well, it's not some far off in the future divergence.

 DUST with its strong positive divergence on a -8% gap down yesterday to close up +13% yesterday, that's nothing compared to what this can do.

Again the 5 min chart is largely in line confirming GDX, but...

The 15 min chart with a huge leading positive divergence and an appropriate size base hint at a move well in to the mid 30's very conservatively speaking, I wouldn't be surprised if it hit the $50's

I'll be very patient with this one if need be, maybe trade around it, but if it comes down to a reasonable area with a good set up, I'd consider a trade here is you haven't already.

TICK: Watching for an Intraday Reversal

I think just by the strength exhibited today in the 3C charts not to mention the 5 min VIX futures, something bullish is coming, I also still think a larger base is probably the most likely outcome.

You can watch the NYSE 1 min TICK chart to get a feel for a market intraday reversal, I think we are getting close to one.

 NYSE TICK, you can see it slipping in the channel

My custom TICK Indicator, you can see it going from negative to positive, I suspect it will start moving negative soon.

I don't see it as worthwhile to put on any trades specific to this move (assuming that's what we are getting, but I have felt like that almost all day), there might be some maintenance/management  you might consider, like I wanted to take some off the table in XOM.

Market Update

I want to be careful here not to get in to a position of long exposure on what may be the top of a "W" base, in which case, longs would experience drawdown while the overall base would pullback and create a stronger base. Or worse, a flash rally with no legs, but I don't think that's a high probability right now.

The other possibilities are getting the market toward a Friday op-ex pin higher, although doubtful in my view OR this has to do with Syria Strike timing. Yesterday when a strike seemed it could happen at any moment the market was jittery, now today it seems it has been put off a couple of days, perhaps the weekend.

If they do it on the weekend and all goes well (remember it was said to be a 2-day strike), then it would have little effect on the market as uncertainty had been removed (short term).

There are a lot of great looking charts including credit/HYG in many surprising timeframes, VIX futures as well.

I'll try to give you a feel, I'm still a little hot about that XOM "FAIL", but I think the position has a lot more upside, it would have been a nice +35% 1 day move for something I probably could have added back at a lower entry.

 DIA 3 min like a lot of charts, shows what I expected yesterday, "Give the market a few more hours and the divergences will start to become more solid.  Just look at how much was added today already on many of the charts below.


The 3 min DIA chart has a slight negative, it makes me wonder if we will get a pullback with yesterday being the first part of the "W" base and later today/tomorrow being the second part. It's hard to say because there was accumulation while prices fell while Kerry spoke yesterday, otherwise the market would have more of a rounded look right now.

 DIA 5 min added a lot today thus far as expected yesterday, but still looks like 3C is a bit high for prices moving up.

The 10 min chart shows good migration and I think this is a serious divergence that will likely take us higher in to that bounce that was interrupted. Retail sentiment is blowing with the wind, whichever way price is going, they are following so they could be set up for a nice bear trap short term.

 IWM 5 min looks respectable and a lot added today

Even the 10 min, this is when we know things are getting more serious.

QQQ 5 min

QQQ 10 min looks great, a pullback and higher leading positive would be fantastic, like money on the ground.

SPY 1 min, to me this is too much , too high in to higher prices, I think there has to be a pullback at some point.

This is the 5 min ES chart and it looks pretty good

The 5 min VIX futures shown last night show the positive in which we made a 1-day double digit gain, now imagine the gain on the size of this negative and the market moves opposite VIX futures.

Right now the 1 min VIX futures isn't really telling us much, I'm still watching for signs of a pullback.

XOM Update

You may recall Friday, Aug. 23rd I closed an XOM core short equity position and opened an XOM Sept. $85 call position .

If you look at the charts, not only was the character of price clear, but the 3C charts were exactly what I'd expect and this morning XOM is up at least 30+% as I expected this to bounce.

This is delayed so it's probably better than the +32% gain from today alone. For whatever reason this is the second time in about a week I can't get an order to go through on this platform, but I intended to take half off the table on the initial momentum, maybe add it back if the scenario was right and let the other half run as I think XOM ultimately has more upside, in fact probably quite a bit more.

 This 60 min chart and the appropriate size of the base makes XOM look like an excellent upside candidate.

The 30 min chart is leading as well. You should look at the original post linked above and charts, this way you'll see exactly what I saw at the moment.

The 1 min chart was lagging a bit so I thought taking initial momentum or part of it off the table made some sense, since we still have some longer term positives, I'd leave the rest to run.

The 3 min chart is still perfectly in line so I have no problem letting the rest run, as of now all of it will have to run.

If I do get a fill, I'll let you know.

XOM Sept $85 Calls

I'd be taking half off the table right now if I could get a stinking fill!.

You might take a look if you are in.

AAPL Fast Mover

AAPL is putting positive divergences together pretty quick, I'm hesitant to get involved with these real fast movers without a reasonable base, otherwise I suspect they make a pop and flame out and you really need to be nimble and watching carefully, I'd rather look for the more sustainable possibilities and maybe AAPL becomes one, it's right around a sym. triangle so any number of head fake moves including one to return it to building a more sustainable base are possible.

 1 min positive with a sym. triangle at the yellow bar that looks to be just breaking out.

3 min leading positive  which looks good, it's just not long enough on the time scale, to me this needs to come down, make a "W" and a stronger/higher pos. divergence before it is sustainable.

5 min is positive so the divergences are migrating fast now as I said late yesterday, the problem is still the same, if a base doesn't have a large enough footprint you can't build very high before things become unstable.

10 min is in line. I think if what I'd like to see happen actually did happen, then this 10 min would have time to go positive rather than in line.

FSLR Update

First remember how quickly we went from the first half of the day yesterday being positive in 1 min charts and strongly, but only 1 min charts, to suddenly and quickly moving to longer timeframes.

Second, the price pattern is about the right size proportionally for a normal "in character" reversal as part of the reversal process. In other words, while I don't yet have that strong feeling I should be taking positions quickly, the extra hour or two I wished we had at the close yesterday is right now so things should be solidifying.

 You may recall the bullish ascending triangle that traders would expect to break out to the upside and my thoughts that it would be a head fake move, it was in the form of a "Failed breakout". Failed breakouts lead to fast reversals.

Now the SPY's rounding bottom has taken on a nice form and at least half way done as a rounding bottom, there was a stop run at the high volume, but typically there would be 1 final one just before a reversal to the upside begins. We still have charts that need to fill in, this is why I wanted the extra time yesterday.

FSLR

 3 min relative and then leading positive as is often the case

FSLR 5 min going leading positive at an area that would be considered a head fake stop run.

And the overall 30 min chart which I liked so much still in great shape, the yellow line being the head fake stop run. I would add to FSLR if the charts all started lining up and the overall market environment was constructive as it has been moving in that direction.

Volatility or VIX futures represented by VXX and UVXY are seeing strong, early distribution that confirms market strengthening, UVXY 1 min

UVXY 3 min, the positive to the left was where we went long VXX calls for a quick 1-day or less double digit return, it's now moving toward the negative.

I'll let you know if I decide to add to FSLR calls or perhaps some other way of playing FSLR.

Silver & Interesting 3C/Market Concept

I've talked about this numerous times, over the last few weeks I've demonstrated it nearly every day of the last two weeks, it's not particular to 3C, but 3C uncovered it for me in the market.

"Whatever the ending 3C indication is at the close, the next day will pick up right where it left off no matter what happened overnight".

Last week I predicted the opening/early market behavior based on the afternoon charts and was correct every day, the most recent example is yesterday's Put position in SLV.

This is a market concept, I've just learned about it through 3C, I don't have the exact answers other than market maker inventory and the losses or gains they'd experience if price ran too far away from the previous close, but they have ways to make up for that, especially on the NYSE side where the Specialist sets the opening price and even time as opposed to the market setting it on the NASDAQ.

 This is yesterday's 4 p.m. close in Silver Futures at $24.505. Overnight Silver ran up to a high of $25.16.

However at 9:30 this morning Silver had returned to the area of the 4 p.m. close at a price of $$24.53, only two and a half cents higher than the 4 p.m. close and moving down fast,

The 3 min 3C chart of SLV yesterday looked like SLV was going to see weakness on the close for this morning, not a huge gap up, the green arrow is this morning's open.

As you can see on a 1 min chart, SLV, despite moving around a bit last night, picked up right where it left off yesterday.

Then this morning the range support from yesterday where all the stops and limits would be congregated (ANOTHER MARKET CONCEPT) were hit as you can see by the volume. We'll have to wait a little bit to see if there was any accumulation there or just distribution.

However the point of the post was the nature of the closing 3C divergence often picks up right where it closed upon the next open, even if it's over the weekend! This is not because of 3C obviously, but 3C allows us to see this peculiar market concept.