Tuesday, January 18, 2011

AMR Possible Earnings Play

DAL is dragging the space down today on their earnings. Tomorrow before the open, AMR reports. I found these charts to be the most interesting of all the earnings plays I've looked at thus far.


AMR Daily-some accumulation in white, resistance near $8.75 3x with a small daily negative divergence.

A closer look at the 15 min chart shows each successive attempt at $8.75 showing negative divergences.

A few years ago AMR telegraphed very well via 3C on a upside move. This isn't looking too good for AMR. Remember though, the earnings play idea is not about whether they beat or miss, but the reaction to earnings which can take several days to play out or it can be immediate. What I'm seeing on the chart above looks like money moving out of AMR. One concern I have is whether the DAL earnings will create an oversold environment. In any case, they report before the bell tomorrow and always, earnings trades are speculative and need god risk management a the report before the open can produce an unfavorable gap. This is the best looking chart though thus far for an earnings play-this one on the short side.

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