Daily Warp... FAIL

I wasn't going to post this tonight with the other post, but now is no time for complacency, as things get further down the rabbit hole volatility increase, ranges and gaps increase, unpredictability increases and you can even see some really big moves on the upside that don't mean a thing.

After looking at the market and thinking back to what happened today, there was a serious effort to put in a base that at least the IWM could correct from, this is normal behavior, even for a bearish tone which may be one of the biggest changes, "normal behavior" because we haven't seen it in 4 years.

So as I mentioned, a base was under construction to bounce off, it just saw a complete FAIL.

I don't have all the charts, but enough. If you look at sentiment you can see what happened there alone.

 sentiment was moving toward a small bounce, then a total FAIL, this was evident in 3C, a positive divegrence/base was building and then wiped out.

They haven't given up yet...

 The other sentiment indicator took a cue from their efforts to salvage the situation, just compare the noon hour and after action with the SPY arbitrage below.

Yep, tried they did, but even with that it wasn't enough to even stop the bleeding.

The SPX futures saw the biggest drop in 4 months, the VIX saw the largest gain in 2 months, right on time after yesterday's note that the VIX had not only hit the average we were looking for, but put in a bullish reversal candle...

I hope you are taking down the concepts and not just listening to the posts because every move in the VIX right up to today was predicted weeks before hand giving you the chance to get ready, I was watching positions work today quite comfortably, no stress, no chasing trades, the signals were there in advance, the work was done at the best prices.

As for the VIX, I know they want to get a bounce, but the cat is out of the bag here so if they do get a bounce in the market it's going to likely be an insignificant correction in the VIX before it heads higher and the market lower.

This is why I say "I wouldn't enter a market correlated long with your money"...

The SPX makes the breakout move that many people think is such an important event, they pay too much attention to price, there's nothing to learn there that everyone with eyes doesn't already know, but seeing the distribution in this area is worth knowing. Seeing the SPX is now in a position in which 1 gap down can take out more than a month of longs on super-turbo charged margin and negative net worth is exactly why I wouldn't enter a market correlated long, flip to a bull.

I could care less that the Russell 2000 broke below it's 50 day moving average today, but I know technical traders care and I can use that against them just like Wall St. does, what I do care about though...

Is the R2K is making lower highs and lower lows, this is Bernie's favorite measure of the "wealth Effect", therefore the NY F_E_D's open markets desk's main priority. The R2K should always lead the market, but here it's leading in the wrong direction.

These aren't big moves, but as I said, there's not a lot to learn from price, the real stuff is under the surface.

Take the Percentage of NYSE stocks Above their 40-Day Moving Average, from their last high in October, the SPX has moved up exactly 0.58% (still want to talk about how this market is just unstoppable on the upside?), the percentage has gone from the Octobeer high of 82% to the current low of 33% and the market has barely moved (+0.58%), that's market breadth totally falling apart and part of the reason I was ticked at BAC's "Big Breadth Revelation", they saw 1 indicator of 50 that are all falling apart.

The Percentage of NYSE Stocks 1 SD > 40-Day m.a. over the same period has gone from 66% to 15%, the same indicator except 2 SD's went from 41% to FOUR PERCENT! The SPX is trading up here and the percentage of NYSE stocks trading 2 standard deviations above their 40-day is only FOUR PERCENT!!!!


As warned about a week ago, Transports got walloped today, there's a short there.

Check out the NYSE A/D line...

Not only has the NYSE A/D line failed to cross October's high (vs SPX red), it's now at the May 21st levels although the SPX is 6.77% higher, that's a problem with breadth...BANK OF AMERICA!!!

Indicators I rarely post, but watch are all negatively divergent and this is the best way to use them, Zweig and the MCO (vs the SPX)...

 Zweig Breadth Thrust...

McClellan Oscillator

Looking even closer at the breadth picture, here's some of my indicators for the NDX component stocks vs the Q's...

 15 min Count New Highs at 250 bars and Count New Lows

Intraday 15 min NDX A/D line at a new low

The percentage of NDX stocks above their  15 min 50-bar moving average and below it.

I can't really make this case any stronger and I'm not trying to convince you of anything other than what's in front of you, the reason is this is what you need to remember when we make those trades that make you want to cover your eyes, hold your nose and jump, the ones that every fiber of your emotional being is saying, "Why are you doing this?" These are also the trades with the best entries, the best timing typically and believe it or not, the least risk.


However I think they'll still try, don't ever get complacent, but I'd also say don't get too wrapped up in what the market does overnight or early in the morning, DON'T BE MYOPIC, LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE.

If the market had put together a halfway decent base that could be traded long today, I'd probably do it, but like one member told me of his plans, he'll wait for any bounce and short that, that's thinking, that's patience and using the probabilities to your advantage.

The market is going to get where it's going, like Jesse said, "time" and in my experience, realistic expectations and those can be gained by looking at past reversals and bear markets a day at a time and think about how you'd feel on that day if you had all of your children's education fund in the market, you need to make it emotionally meaningful to make it useful because you have the advantage of knowing what comes next, we don't have that in real time, we live on the right edge of the chart, but knowing what is normal will keep you from freaking out and making an emotional decision because the market was up 1%.

So, do I think they'll try again tomorrow, yes I do, BUT TODAY WAS A FAIL AND THAT IS SOMETHING NEW IN THE MARKET'S CHARACTER.

One reason I think they'll try again is the intraday Yen charts look like it will pullback, even though the Carry Crosses aren't as effective if effective at all, they may give them a try, they certainly gave the SPY arbitrage a try today and the market still failed. However one of my favorite (NEXT DAY) indicators is the custom layout I designed to keep track of the Dominant Price/Volume Relationships among the major averages.

Today our dominant theme was strong, 20 of the Dow 30, 60 of the NASDAQ 100 and 289 of the SPX-500, that relationship was Close Down/Volume Up. This is a short term capitulation event, the problem is the momentum on the downside never gave any room, we didn't have any reversal candlesticks, but considering the VIX, a pop might be what we get.

I'll be looking for the divergences because I will, if I have good reason, take out a call option and add a few percentage points. If I don't have good reason, I look for other trades and let the ones opened already... work.

Some other things I see was an effort to knock VXX down with some distribution. HYG was out of the game, it seems no one wants to risk getting caught with their pants down in credit, but I'll be watching there too.

The USO pullback we expected looks like it's coming as well as the Gold/GDX and NUGT positions, they should open up again shortly so those are some nice trades. MCP should be working shortly as well and UNG should pullback soon and we can play that with DGAZ, then enter UNG long when that's done. If the market can get a little base together (there's room along side today's action, the range would be wide, but it could work), then in the trading portfolio I'd enter a FAS position being I can't use any options there, that was the point.

I may even move SRTY and a few others around IF the charts warrant it, but this doesn't change the Probabilities which are rip-roaring strong on the bearish side, I know we've had to wait, but I think that's largely because this will likely be an epic, historical opportunity, it won't be emotionally easy, but it should be rather straight forward with a lot of opportunities.
I think the market may be (INDEX futures) putting in some lows right now, but either way it doesn't matter, if we go lower, we're all set for it, if we get a bounce we can make some extra scratch and set up more trades in line with the probabilities, we're in a good position.

When I look at the October Cycle charts, I know this is the spark that starts a fire, we haven''t seen anything yet, I'm thankful I stumbled on 3C actually trying to create something a bit different. I am really just thinking right now about getting my "Fluid marital situation" resolved and funding my account, I'd like to enjoy this with all of you.

 SPY October Cycle, this is like the fuse and this isn't coming back even if we do get some pretty intense up days...

The IWM, the Channel Buster here means the IWM has a fast and large plunge ahead of it.

And the POctober cycle for the Q's... I don't even have to draw the divergences.

Like I said at the top, I wasn't even going to write on this subject tonight, but there are opportunities and I wanted you to see what it looks like when Wall Street itself FAILS.

This and That and the Other

I have made the case for the market, there's not much I can add to it accept to update it and look for or manage positions.

There are some really nasty structural defects in the market that I think will exacerbate a real panic decline which is what most of us like to think of when we think "bear market", but did you know on average there are just about as many up days as down days in a bear market? Then of course Wall Street will try to keep you guessing if you are really in a bear market or if you may be near the bottom of one; how do you think traders felt just 2 and a half months after the initial 1929 market crash when the market rallied for the next 5 MONTHS and gained about +45%? How many do you think may have thought, those 2.5 months of crash were just a fluke, especially after a bull market of about 8 years that gained almost 500%?

Did you know there were at least 5 (more depending on how you count them) of these bear market rallies like that first one mentioned above? 

My question to you is this, looking back at the most easily identifiable bear market in equities, "Do you think you would have had the fortitude to reap the reward of approx. 346 points of a possible 386?"Or do you think watching the market day after day for 5 months push higher and higher may have scared you out of your positions? Even if you had the benefit of multiple objective sources that all pointed the same direction, which established the direction of highest probabilities?

What about this?

After the initial decline and what looks like capitulation volume possibly calling an end to the decline, and BEFORE the counter trend rally I mentioned above, what about a month of higher highs knowing the market had gained 500% before this 2.5 month anomaly?

Yes, trading is hard and Wall Street is there to make it even harder because someone has to lose in a zero sum game for someone to win.

I'm just trying to point out a few things, like how narrow our view can be sometimes, this is the 1929 crash in full.

To ride that bear down seems pretty easy when you look at it like this, but I just showed you a month long period and a 5 month period, had you exited out of fear at the end of that, you would have missed the rest of the gains from 300 points to about 44 points. It always seems so much harder when you're in the middle of a day and the market is up half a percent and you feel panicked. This is the hardest lesson I ever taught in my years of teaching trading, to get people to look at historical charts with emotion, to understand how you would have felt, to understand what is normal and what is not.

What if you had this 3C chart back then? 

Knowing this chart confirmed most of that huge rally and then seeing a change in character at the white arrow where price suddenly saw a huge increase in the upside Rate of Change and 3C started telling you distribution was taking place? Unfortunately we can't see what the 6 other timeframes we use had to say back then, I wish I knew, but knowing this  (which does not show how far the DOW actually fell to the right), would you have been able to use the data because I haven't heard of too many other indicators that predicted the reversal?

This is why I quote people who are smarted than I am and who can say it far better than I ever will be able to, respected traders like Jesse Livermore, a man who was a notorious bear during this period and known for bear raids, known for making his vast fortune (3 times) selling the market short (not that I am saying I'm a perpetual bear, I just want to be on the right side of the major move).

It's advice like this that is so easy to dismiss when you are too close to events or your risk management is not up to par, but looking back historically, there's a reason this man is considered the "World's Greatest Trader...

I think rather than talk about the little things which we already know (of course I'll cover anything relevant), maybe it's good to contemplate some advice from those who we can learn from.

For instance...

“I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.”

Even with HFTs and all of the other changes, 2007/2008 bore a lot of resemblance to 1929 in a scaled way, but as I always say, the market is fractal in nature for the very same reason he says there's essentially, "Nothing new under the sun".

I'm sure you've heard the full version of this one...

“Money is made by sitting, not trading.”

“It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”

“Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.” (We'll deal with this again)

If we consider those quotes, it's clear what he's saying, once you know the probabilities, stick with them, but how? This is where the lesson is yours to learn, what prevents you from "Sitting"? Too big of a position size? Too tight of a stop? Emotions? A partner who doesn't support your trading? Unrealistic expectations of how much money you need and how much money you can make trading for a living?

This one is hard for even me to contemplate...

 “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”

I understand this is in the same category as the above, however one of my things is trying to nail down the timing, but I do understand the quote in this context. When I did NOTHING else but trade (that means no additional income which can be a very stressful job), I blew up an options portfolio because as you've probably heard me say, I was using them exactly the way Wall Street designed the derivative products and the house always wins.

It wasn't until I started doing the exact opposite of the allure of options, for instance spending more and buying quality over spending less and buying quantity or buying expirations that were in many cases, 10 times longer than I anticipated needing, that I finally was able to use options as a tool when needed.  You always here the stories of option trade jackpots, hitting the timing just right with a large supply of out of the money options and a 500% gain, but you don't hear the rest of the story or see how it ends. With options, I've learned to try to get the best timing possible, but the most important thing to my success with them is to have enough time on the contracts, that's what made the biggest difference .

How about these two...

 “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”

 “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”

What can we learn and apply? For me, patience is a big part and having good reason to enter, exit or otherwise change or leave a position alone.

I've made the mistake of making too many trades, when I first started trading full-time I didn't have a supportive spouse, I felt I HAD to show her I could make a regular paycheck so I turned away from my then chosen method of swing trading as I may have to wait weeks for the gains and started day trading. I was able to make some money, but at 100-200 trades a week, my transaction costs alone could have easily paid all of my bills for the month.

As you saw today, earlier there was some evidence for opening some new trades, but it wasn't enough. In the past, I can't say I would have had that same discipline or patience, in fact on of the hardest things for me to stop doing was chasing trades, the hardest thing for me to do was learn to take a trade even when price and popular opinion as well as my own emotions were totally against it.  However I learned that these positions gave me some of the best entries and they actually had the least risk. I suppose you could say I not only had to learn patience, but I had to learn to trust in faith and probabilities because there's no (LEGAL) greater edge than the best, objective case you can make for probabilities.

Also the action or the need to get back losses quickly, this is a business, there are business costs and not every business will survive, that's just truth. However a surefire way to destroy your business is by making it personal and treating it like gambling.

Those are just a few things to chew over and there's no right answer for everyone and you may disagree, but I think someone so successful that JP Morgan himself had to ask Jesse to stop shorting the market to prevent a collapse of the banking sector and economy in 1907, deserves to be contemplated.

For my part, we all know what the recent Investor Intelligence Percentage of Bears has been, all time lows, we also know that Investor Intelligence is one of about 3-4 sources that is used to construct "Dumb Money " indicators, essentially, when dumb money is at extremes like this, you want to be on the other side of the boat.

Since I have always kept only a tracking portfolio because of time constraints and because I want to keep track of all ideas put out there, it's not an optimal representation of what a real model portfolio would look like, having 20-60 stocks in a portfolio is not my idea of trading, it's over-diversification in my view. However, at times as you know, especially when there's been a significant shift in the market, I like to see how the tracking portfolios are doing vs the bulk of traders, in other words, see how our positions measure up against the crowd.

I only recently started a "Trading Portfolio" mainly to see if I can maintain my level of commitment to the site while trading my own portfolio without risking my money due to not having time to pay enough attention. I've long considered this, there are several issues that I have had to consider such as trust of members that I'm not front-running a trade in a small cap and then putting it out for the membership, I think I can do that with timestamps to prove that the idea was given to members before I acted on it. One of the other issues is the "Follow" issue, I don't want a portfolio like that to become a "Follow me" portfolio because there's no idea that I'd put out and wouldn't trade, but I may not have room to trade an idea, that doesn't mean it's any less of a good idea. I'm sure you get the point.

So I'm seeing how it is going and I'll likely start a small portfolio because I don't want to miss the opportunities this market is giving and going to give which I think will be historic, a small portfolio will alleviate some of the "Front running" concerns and I think it would be a good lesson in risk management which the new site has some new additions like the 2% rule calculator because small portfolios with larger transaction costs are by far the hardest challenge. I'll see how it goes, but I'm thinking as soon as I wrap up the transient marital issues later this month (if you know what I mean) I'll likely move forward with the new site opening.

In the mean time, I did check today to see how the positions we set up in advance fared against the crowd.

THE TRADING PORTFOLIO IS ONLY 9-DAYS OLD, there are no options used, just equities and ETFs, I run about 6 positions on average and so far that portfolio is up +13.7% since 9-days ago.

To put that in perspective, the median performance for all hedge funds is 6% as of November for the year, if I wrapped it up for the year right now I'd double their average  performance and these guys make 2-3% in management fees and 20-50% in incentive fees for profitable trades above the high water mark.

I was surprised that none of the tracking portfolios had huge gains, yet they outperformed the group by a wide margin.


 I first heard of this site because MIT had a trading contest using it and it's one of the most realistic with margin maintenance, trade slippage, interest, transaction costs, etc. Unfortunately it was only after I had opened a good number of positions I found out that you can't see anything else other than another member's rank and last trade unless you pay a monthly fee, I should have checked it for webmaster tools, but since then I've found no other substitute outside of a spreadsheet which can't give all of the same reality based functions without a lot more programming know how then I have. CBOE also has a pretty interesting site, but there's no way for me to migrate open positions to the new site without opening new trades and that defeats the purpose.

The portfolios performance below starts with the trading portfolio which was just opened. The "Rank" is versus all other players on the site for the timeframe seen to the left (weekly/monthly), I've actually won numerous times which is supposed to come with a cash prize, but I've never seen that. The "Return" is for the same time period and it shows the SPX's return for the same.

Below that (blue) you can find out how many other contestants there are, for example, the Trading Portfolio at the top ranked #57, below you can see that is 57 of 6,527 other "players".

You'll also see the options tracking portfolio which I keep separate and the Core position portfolio.

The point of sharing this is not bragging rights, I've had much higher scores and not shared them, it's when we have transitional moments because it shows me how we did vs. the crowd so in a way, it's a sort of "Sentiment" indicator. On a week like this where the trading portfolio places in the top .008%, I can see we were on the right track while the majority were pursuing a different course.

Keep in mind that all of these except the newest "Trading " portfolio are WAY over diversified for me (I can achieve diversification with 5-6 positions without killing performance), I'd never run a true portfolio like that as your winners represent a very small fraction, but when the entire portfolio does well, I know we have good stock selection.

On average our "Core Shorts" have been outperforming the SPX by a 7:1 margin on down days, (if the SPX is down 1%, the entire tracking portfolio is down -7%) which is fantastic.

*See below for additional comments

Trading Portfolio Weekly

Options Tracking Portfolio

Options Tracking Portfolio

Core Position Tracking Portfolio

Core Position Tracking Portfolio 

I have a board meeting to attend in which I'm making a $160,000 decision for the community as Treasurer and Secretary (In FL, a corporation only needs a President and Secretary, they are must haves).

I'll take another look at the market and emails when I get back, but I think pondering some of the quotes from above may be a very useful exercise.

When the new site is online, we have a ton of new tools and features that will open your eyes to your trading, trading in general and lots of other details you'll find no where else as well as new features like the Risk Management (@% Rule) Risk Calculator and much, much more.

Market Update...THIS DOESN'T LOOK GOOD

The lack of a respectable (even intraday) base has gone from bad to worse, this is just the nature of the market and why I always go with the probabilities even when it's a tough trade to make or hold because I've had years upon years of experience with 3C and I know what the probabilities are with the indicator and I know I've never seen anything literally "This off the charts"

In the words of John Templeton...

"“To buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward.”

I'd add to that, that you must have an OBJECTIVE and OVERWHELMING reason to do so, in any part of life, faith is one of the hardest things especially when your emotions are telling you something different and they are very strong.

If I have found the strongest probabilities, the only reason for me to change course or tactics in mid-stream, even if for only a day, is finding similarly strong probabilities, if I lack them, then any choices I make to the contrary are made from emotions and emotions are usually the best reverse indicator.


So the SPY... I have no reason to move, even for a short term counter trend correction.

 This "could" have been a workable base, it still "could" be with a bit more time, but the probabilities aren't there yet if they ever will be.

The fastest 3C chart isn't even positive which means it has deteriorated.

The 2 min chart is just as negative as it was 3-days ago

the 3 min

Higher probabilities at 10 mins tell me things are very ugly, but we've known that, price is responding to that. Why do you think we are not scrambling to enter shorts or chase the market? We did our work already.

 The 15 min chart, this is very hard to overcome, even short term moves don't stand a chance.

At the bottom I try to put in to context the size of each divergence

The IWM is no better, it lost what it had yesterday

And the IWM 15

Look at the QQQ 10 min

GDX / NUGT / DUST

OK, DUST, a 1-day trade for a counter trend move in NUGT is now done, I could have likely squeezed an extra percent or two out of it, but it just wasn't worth it. I accomplished what I set out to do, not only to hedge the NUGT long, but to make some extra scratch on the opportunity, that's trading.

The P/L for this 1-day position was great...

At a fill of $45.20, that's a 1-day gain of +10.3%

 As far as GDX goes (DUST and NUGT are the 3x leveraged short/long versions of GDX) it filled the gap or enough for me.

DUST didn't quite, but ETFs try to track performance on a 1-day basis in most cases, they don't always succeed, sometimes it's good for you, sometimes not.

This is DUST though losing 3C momentum, the first negative divergence is showing up and I suspect it will grow and become more powerful until DUST heads down and NUGT is a long again (maybe a day or two?)

DUST 2 min migration

GDX 1 min positive.

All that GDX/NUGT need now for a new entry is to put in the reversal process which won't be that big considering it was just a gap fill so I may be re-entering NUGT tomorrow.

Remember this tells us something about the market, GDX/NUGT trade like Gold and gold trades opposite the market right now for the most part so you can kind of get another perspective or piece of the puzzle to compliment your analysis and it's not an area many traders would look, but that's what you need to do to beat the masses, think outside the box.

Closing DUST Long

This one entered yesterday is nearly 9% already, it's real close to my target and I'm going to take the gain and create some dry powder.

I'm not re-entering NUGT yet, it still has a reversal process to put in.

Market Update

I was just answering an email as there was some surprise there could be a bounce with the SPY down a little under -.80%, but look at the Russell 2k, it's in a short term down trend, lower highs, lower lows and down about -3.3% for December already, this is perfectly understandable as I said last night for the IWM to want to move back toward the relative performance of other averages, but it's also trading more like a normal market, we're so use to a market moving one way every day even if it's a 0.05% gain, that's not normal, waves in the market are normal, not linear lines and it gives us opportunities.

I've been looking around and while anything that's longer term or core position I have no intention of moving, I would say for example, move some things around in the trading portfolio, it's up 13% for pretty much December since inception and I'd put in some short term TRADING POSITIONS that were long, but I'm on the fence because I don't like this base (intraday), it's not organized, it's not wide enough in my opinion. I may change my mind if I see something change as things have been changing fast and I'd take some extra gains on a TRADE only, for a bounce only, not to be confused with me being bullish on the market.

I'll of course let you know, but right now it's the shape and size/organization of intraday bases that is throwing me and making me want to sit back and wait because the positions in the trading portfolio can withstand the drawdown and they are still aligned with the highest probabilities so if I had to do nothing, I'd still be fine, but it's always fun to add a little extra % to the bottom line.

VXX Follow Up

I'll get in to what I'm thinking and a market update next, but I'm not willing to enter a inverse VXX position as I think VIX futures stay bid no matter what happens.

I'm also not willing to give up the whole position as it's the big one among them with the VIX BB squeeze.

For even a pullback, the position was just too large.

The fill was 3.48 for 30 contracts so this is cut in half, but it was bigger than a full size core position, just too much, but I can't say I won't add it back on the right signals.

I think VIX futures will stay bid no matter what happens in the market over the next day or so, so I don't even want to think about any trades in the opposite direction.

 This is the intraday chart for VXX / UVXY so a little downside looks probable, I don't want to carry that much draw down when I can open back up at better prices, there's no way I could justify adding to a position that large at better prices.

All that really matters for VXX / UVXY long are the charts in 10 min+ like this, this is going much higher and hopefully I get to add back to that position and didn't make a mistake here, but you do the best with the knowledge you have right now.

Taking Half off Large VXX Jan $45 Call position

Just too big here.

Trade Idea/Set-Up: SBUX... Let it come to you

This is a short sale trade idea for SBUX, apparently the chart last night caught a few people's attention as well as recent action on the daily chart which caught my attention.

My favorite trades are the ones that we plan ahead of time and they come to us offering us the best entry, the lowest risk, the best timing and the satisfaction and security of knowing that the asset has done exactly what we expected.

I think SBUX falls in to the category, the only thing I'm not sure about because of overall market tone is whether SBUX will be a full-blown Channel Buster or a modified/abbreviated version.

 First off, this would not be the first Channel Buster for SBUX, there was one in 2012. Not all Channel Busters lead to a reversal of trend, but just about all of them lead to a sharp reversal to the other side of the channel and they are almost always worth trading.

Secondly, note the ROC (Rate of Change) in price from 2009-2012, then we have an event and after that event, 2013's accelerated rate of ascent is very reminiscent of End of Stage 2 volatility which usually runs right in to stage 3 "Top/Distribution".

 So even without a full blown reversal, this Channel Buster was worth -30%  and marked clearly where to get in and out.

 Here's our current Channel Buster.

This is where I'm unsure of how it proceeds, about 2/3rds of a stocks movement is determined by the market, some run on their own, but few.

Technical traders expect a "Kiss of the Channel Goodbye", that's when there may be a little more downside and the asset rallies back up to the lower channel trendline and stops there as it acts as resistance, many technical traders consider that to be an excellent shorting opportunity and Wall St. knows it, that's why in almost all cases that "Kiss" is a lot bigger than their stops have planned for as they place them just inside the channel. The market will run price up through the stops and often through the top of the channel, shaking out all new shorts, but the stock broke down for a reason and ultimately I'd expect that reason to continue so SBUX should have price alerts set around the lower channel line, inside and on top of, those are the entry areas we want to look at for a very low risk entry.

As for 3C, BEAUTIFUL... I'll just label the charts timeframes, you can see the rest...

 1-day

4 hour

 30 min

15 min

10 min- at this point, the confirmation is overwhelming, tons of distribution.

Recent 3 min, we need to watch for a reversal process to the upside and have those alerts set so we don't miss this one as it looks very good.

My X-Over system went long and now it's 2 of 3 on a sell or short signal and the middle window will be the 3rd very soon.

Also my Trend Channel is broken, as I've said many times, often there's volatility and choppiness after the trend breaks, but it's rarely worth staying long fighting for scraps among heightened volatility and  and unpredictable chop, once the TC is broken, it's just a matter of time before a reversal so this is good to see as well.

I'm sure you get the basic concept of what we are looking for, just don't forget the position, set those alerts.