Friday, August 19, 2011
SPY PIN?
If so, quick look at the calls and puts would suggest $113 would be the target or just shy of $113, there are hardly any calls below that level and the majority of the puts are much higher.
ZSL/SLV
I wouldn't be surprised to see SLV fall before the close, remember, today is most likely a false breakout from the ascending wedge that was in place in SLV.
Market Update
So far it seems like the theory I had a few days ago may be the correct one.
At last update we had triangles in all the major averages and the Bollinger Bands pinching, indicating a directional move was likely. In my theory I was looking for a re-test of the lows, we'll have to wait and see if the market drops that far, and then next week a short squeeze.
Here are what some important charts look like as the market fell out of the triangle (which could be a head fake move, but I doubt it this late on a Friday.)
DIA 10 min leading divergence on the break
IWM 5 min leading divergence
QQQ 5 mn leading divergence
SPY 10 min leading divergence
Yesterday much of the action in 3C that was positive was in the 1-5 min timeframe and I said, it has to start somewhere and if it keeps up, it will migrate to the longer charts, now it is on the 5-10 min charts, which s what I would expect to see if my theory plays out about options expiration.
I'm going to be around for about 30 more minutes, but I do have a family emergency that requires my presence at about 3:30. I wouldn't leave before the market closed unless t was a matter of life and death and it is. Thank you for your understanding.
At last update we had triangles in all the major averages and the Bollinger Bands pinching, indicating a directional move was likely. In my theory I was looking for a re-test of the lows, we'll have to wait and see if the market drops that far, and then next week a short squeeze.
Here are what some important charts look like as the market fell out of the triangle (which could be a head fake move, but I doubt it this late on a Friday.)
Yesterday much of the action in 3C that was positive was in the 1-5 min timeframe and I said, it has to start somewhere and if it keeps up, it will migrate to the longer charts, now it is on the 5-10 min charts, which s what I would expect to see if my theory plays out about options expiration.
I'm going to be around for about 30 more minutes, but I do have a family emergency that requires my presence at about 3:30. I wouldn't leave before the market closed unless t was a matter of life and death and it is. Thank you for your understanding.
TLT
TLT/ Long term Treasuries or the safe haven trade.
TLT breakout, both days are Stars, which means they lost momentum.
The 60 min 3C chart is negative at the breakout, likely to be a false breakout.
The 10 min is also negative at the breakout, at each day's high.
The 1 min chart showing the negative divergence at today's high.
Should TLT break below the $109.35 area, especially on volume, you may want to look at buying TBT or TBF.
Should TLT break below the $109.35 area, especially on volume, you may want to look at buying TBT or TBF.
A Pin?
Market acton is pretty dead today and slow markets always make me nervous. It could be that they are pinning the market to the $114 area or some other level to cause maximum pain on options expiration, but there are some signs that we shouldn't sit back too relaxed in the calm before the storm.
SPY triangle suggesting a break coming one way or the other.
The SPY 30 min Bollinger Bands are pinching, signaling a highly directional move shortly.
Market Update
RIMM Update
Yesterday I updated RIMM two of the main themes were that a) RIMM would continue to hold support inside the trading range and b) expect a pullback in to the afternoon trade, both happened as the charts were showing.
As for today's trade... (Remember, my expectation s for RIMM to breakout of the trading range to the upside, run a bit and then set up a short position).
Yesterday's update about RIMM trading down in the afternoon, but holding support
Today's trade is pinching in a wedge, which is a bit bearish, it should, according to technical analysis, breakdown from the wedge, but from our experience there's almost always an upside breakout first as you can see happening now.
3C 10 min is lagging badly, suggesting a pullback
So is the 15 min chart.
I do suspect RMM will continue to hold support on what may be the 3rd test of support inside the trading range.
As for today's trade... (Remember, my expectation s for RIMM to breakout of the trading range to the upside, run a bit and then set up a short position).
I do suspect RMM will continue to hold support on what may be the 3rd test of support inside the trading range.
Stocks from last night's post
I showed charts of numerous stocks last night that had some kind of strange, bullish behavior and listed several more. Looking through those stocks today, nearly 70% of them are either near unchanged or in the green.
Perhaps a little more development in the charts will shed some more light.
Perhaps a little more development in the charts will shed some more light.
Early Market Update
There's not a lot going on yet, but some of the divergences in the short timeframes last night can be understood now in this morning's market action.
As mentioned above, we saw a lot of early positive divergences on the open, lifting the averages in to the green, the DIA is now negative on the 1 min.
DIA 5 min is in line with price.
As is the 10 min.
IWM 1 min saw a big opening positive divergence, it went negative and now is about in line with price.
The 5 min still has a leading positive position, but from what I recall last night, the IWM was one of the stronger looking averages.
QQQ 1 min opening positive divergence lifting it in to the green and a negative divergence at the high, currently in line with price.
QQQ 5 min is in line with price
The 10 min is lagging price slightly.
SPY opening positive divergence and it has been in line since.
The 5 min is in line with price.
The 10 min is leading a bit.
Early trade usually doesn't give great indications, but I wanted to get something out there for you.
Early trade usually doesn't give great indications, but I wanted to get something out there for you.
PMs Update
As for silver,
"Here's an hourly chart of SLV in a bearish ascending wedge, most traders expect a straight drop down out of the wedge, because it is so obvious, it is likely to be gamed, so I would look for a breakout to the upside, maybe even a new local high and then a plunge in SLV, lifting ZSL. It shouldn't be long now that the wedge is so tight."
This morning SLV did both.
ERY Stop 2
I meant to add this to the last post.
This s the widest stop I would use, you can always take partial profits at the tighter stop and leave some on the table with the wider stop.
50 bar m.a. on 30 min chart. It's worked well with trends in ERY.
This s the widest stop I would use, you can always take partial profits at the tighter stop and leave some on the table with the wider stop.
ERY Stop
This is the tightest stop that can be used with ERY right now, if you are looking for a longer term trade, then you need a wider stop, but I never viewed this as a long term trade.
50 bar m.a. on a 10 min hart.
