The Miners Trading System

There are no new signals tonight, both systems are still long NUGT.

FCX Breaks the Wedge

This morning  updated FCX 


I showed you a wedging price formation that had broken out of what I suspect s a large triangle top. This afternoon, FCX broke below the wedge, which may be the first stage in calling out the false breakout of the major top.

 Here's the daily hart with the large triangle top and a recent breakout from that top, which I'm fairly certan is a head fake.

Here's the intraday chart of the breakout which has been wedging, which in this case is bearish. As you can see, FCX has broken below this wedge, however bearish this may be, remember, Wall Street still plays the game. Most retail technical traders would have recognized the bearish wedge and gone short the pattern as it nears its apex. The breakdown today would have validated their trade, which means you have to be on watch for Wall Street to try to knock these traders out of their position. The easiest and most common way would be for an upside breakout above the wedge, this will stop out the retail shorts, then send FCX back down (a Crazy Ivan shakeout). The bearish implications are real and retail traders are right about the strategic view of this pattern, it's just Wall Street's short term tactics that cause volatility. Or said more succinctly, the bearish pattern is real, we just have to be on guard as Wall Street may game it in the short term.

Market Update

 DIA Bollinger Bands imply a directional move coming.

 Here's the 15 min 3C chart with a negative 3C divergence, note it's right below the trendline I was looking for a move above as a head fake.

 The Q's look the same...

 The 15 min 3C chart.

And here's the SPY with a very negative 15 min 3C chart, also in a tight consolidation. I think we are getting very close.

BJRI Trade Working Well

This morning at 11:38 I brought you the BJRI trade, which was brought to my attention by a member several days ago. 

I said in the post this morning, "I like the trade right here" @ $53.46. BJRI is now trading at $52.18 at a 2.4% profit since the trade was mentioned, and t's looking bad.

 Today's daily chart...

A 5 min intraday chart.


I would consider adding or starting a short position in BJRI on any strength,

PNFP Trade Idea Follow Up (short)

In yesterday morning's PNFP update I sad, "Keep PNFP on your radar, it's getting close."


I'm not fond of picking tops, but PNFP is showing some signs that it may be in a worthwhile position to go short as a high probability/low risk trade.

 Here's the major top on a daily chart. Remember the first break of a top is almost ALWAYS followed by a volatility move and I rarely like to short the first break of support for this reason, PNFP, if it failed here would be the second break of the top and much more inlne with my personal preferences. You can always wait for the break of support at the red trendline, but for those of you who like to get in a bit earlier and have the risk management to take trades like this, keep reading.

 Here's some intraday negative looking trade.

 The hourly chart is negative, you can easily see it without my arrows as PNFP is at a breakout level, but 3C is much lower.

 Here's the 15 min negative divergence.

 The 10 min.

And a very ugly 1 min.


I think PNFP can be shorted in the area or on a little strength if it materializes. My personal preference is to give initial positions some room on the stop and I'd choose the $16.45 area as an initial stop, this gives you less then 3% risk, which should be able to easily fill out a 15% of portfolio position without risking more then 2%. In fact it would allow you to invest nearly 70% of your portfolio in the trade, which you would never do hopefully. I don't like any more then 15% invested in any one idea. At that rate, your risk on the position is well below 1% portfolio risk.


The initial target is $12, but there's plenty more downside, I just see that as the first major stop based on support.

Breaking Currency News!

This is a biggie... Remember, the dollar goes up, most risk assets go down. The FXE Euro goes down and the dollar index goes up. UUP represents the dollar index, FXE, the Euro. There have been some amazing moves today.

 Here the dollar breaks intraday support, that should have lifted the market slightly, perhaps they are going for the area in the DOW/QQQ I mentioned, but the 1 min UUP positive divergence is STRONG.

 More impressive is the 5 min pos. div.

 And a 10 min positive!

 This is where it gets exceptional, a 1 day positive divergence in the 15 min chart, it takes a LOT of accumulation to do that.

 But t doesn't stop there, it''s now reached the 30 min chart in a single day on a break of support. Almost certainly a head fake.

 FXE should show the inverse of UUP for confirmation, I mentioned it earlier.  The 1 min is negative.

 As is the 5 min.

And the 15 min, again in one day.

This is a major event in currencies and has profound implications for the market. I would like to see a head fake lower in UUP sending the DIA/QQQ to breakout highs, that would almost certainly be a false breakout and time to throw the shorts on with more confidence.

USO Update-

My first post of the day on USO I feared this move up was a head fake

"1 in 3C chart is not confirming yet, it should have by now, so this move will have to be watched as a possible head fake."


My Follow up post  I said, 


"The 1 and 5 min 3C charts below are not a good sign for USO's breakout"


And now we have this...

A move down coming very close to a false breakout should it cross below the $38.40 area.

 Since the last update, the 10 min chart has gone negative. Remember, when divergences get more serious, they migrate to the longer term 3C charts.

 Not only did the 5 min chart above and the 1 min hart below, not confirm the breakout, but they went on to post an even worse negative divergence at the second red arrow.

USO's only chance right now is to hold support at the breakout level, otherwise we may see a quick move down as the longs who bought the breakout start selling at a loss. And this on a day when the dollar s down! 


There are some preliminary signs that the Euro may slip soon, that would send the dollar higher and negatively impact USO as well as equities, commodities and precious metals in general.

CSE Follow Up

Yesterday  updated the CSE short idea

It looks like we are getting close to a nice entry.

 CSE top

 The recent bounce, I would have liked to see a target around $6.40-$6.50, maybe we still will, but the charts are falling apart.

 The 15 min chart is now in a leading negative divergence.

 As is the 10 min 3C chart.

 The 5 min chart looks especially bad.

 The 1 min chart shows a slight possibility of an intraday move up, but it's not that strong.

The 3-day Trend Channel has held major trends and I'd consider it as a stop in my risk management planning, somewhere around $6.60 if you are looking at CSE as a trending trade.

Getting Closer

You may recall an earlier post in which I said the DIA and QQQ are very close to a resistance level which would cause a surge in buying, a perfect spot for a false breakout and to turn this bounce. The DIA has made a lot of progress and the Q's aren't far off.

What about Treasuries?

Here's my last update on T's

 Here was the move out of nowhere, my last update I said I thought it was a melt-up so the locals could get better positioning on a short trade, having some inside knowledge.

 At the white arrow is my TLT pullback call, note the melt-up had ZERO 3C confirmation.

And the action since.... It seems there's some inside information that we are not yet privy to, but the locals are acting on it.  TBF and TBT are the inverse or bear ETFs on 20+ year treasures.

Flip Flop

And if you were wondering what happened to the market since that quick move up...

Here's the story...my how fast things change

GLD Update

In this earlier update today, I said I think the path of least resistance is down. GLD has since broken some important levels.

 Today's break of support on heavy volume.

 Resistance tests, both failed

Confirmation of resistance test failures. GLD should be back on track. Our original call was for a pullback, possibly quite deep. Yesterday's Taylor article move was as expected, a knee jerk reaction.

URRE Long Trade Idea Follow Up

As I've mentioned previously, some members asked if URRE was a good stock to play the bounce, my answer was no based on the 3C charts and URRE has pulled back as the bounce has unfolded, but during this pullback, there's positive 3C accumulation, setting URRE up for a nice long trade, most likely about the time the market heads down.

 This daily bullish descending wedge s a very bullish pattern on its own.

 Add the daily 3C chart and the extent of the bullishness grows exponentially.

 Accumulation into the pullback on the 15 min chart

 And a leading positive divergence on the 10-min chart

 Also leading on the 5 min chart.

The recent volatility pinch looks like URRE s about to make a very directional move. whether it's up or down, I feel it will be a bullish opportunity. If down, then likely a false break down and a great buy, if up, then up , up and away.