Friday, November 11, 2011

Interesting

The DOW-30 moved nearly 950 points this week and the gain for the week, +.89%, not even 1%!

This is typical of the volatility that I have mentioned as the market changes character in to something more bearish. You could almost say, "It was a high, Churn and Burn week".

The biggest move was -389 points on the 3.20% move down Wednesday, today's 257 point move up was on very light volume, about 30% below the 50 day average due to the holidays, Wednesday's move had good volume.


GLD Update and DZZ request

Gold is close to offering up a decent short trade...
 GLD 1 min

 GLD 2 min

 GLD 5 min

 GLD 15 min

 GLD 60 min

 DZZ 1 min

 DZZ 5 min

 DZZ 15 min

 DZZ 30 min

DZZ hourly.

DXX, the leveraged short ETF for gold, is not quite there on the short term charts, but very close to a handsome looking long position (short GLD). You may want to take a closer look, this is excellent confirmation between the horrible GLD harts and very bullish DZZ charts

Break of intraday support/TICK

 SPY and DIA are just breaking intraday support for the first time, this is why I would be considering using the strength to add shorts as it is just transitioning, but still at an excellent level.

The TICK chart never looks like this, trading in the upper range most of the day, it's due to the lght volume/easy to ramp market because of the holidays, but in the last hour it has moved for the first time in to the -750/-1000 zone as support starts to break.

Final Hour Update

1 chart-the one that started and looks to finish it all.

By the way, my kidney pain started when I woke up at 3 a.m. to check the Euro open, haven't slept since.

I hear all those micro violins :)

There was a positive divergence just about 45 minutes to the EU open at 3 a.m. in white. Now ES is making a deep leading negative low.

I WOULD CONSIDER USING THIS STRENGTH AND THIS SIGNAL TO ADD OR INITIATE ANY SHORT POSITIONS YOU MAY BE CONSIDERING.

I CERTAINLY WOULD BE, PARTICULARLY AT THIS MOMENT.

Just Follow AAPL

As shown yesterday, the Q's underperformance was probably due in no small part to the QQQ's heaviest weighted component, AAPL, and with AAPL looking like this, it' no wonder the Q's look tired.

 AAPL 1 min today leading negative

AAPL 5 min leading negative.

Credit vs. Equities.

Credit moved up today as it should in a risk on day, however it's also showing that it is being sold in to strength/the gap as well.

 SPY in green and HYG in red, HYG didn't move to the same degree as the market, relatively speaking in the box that represents today.

Here's the HYG chart showing the same thing as the market except the Q's which are still making up lost ground from yesterday.

 The DIA already filled the gap and is just treading water while the Q's fill as much as they can, the SPY didn't quite make it to fill the gap, but is behaving the dame way as the DIA, just laterally treading water.

DIA 5 min.

 The Q's are showing signs that it's tiring and is not going to make it through the gap.

 QQQ 5 min

QQQ 10 min

Market Update

 This has been the tough spot, the 5 min chart, the DIA is putting in a second lower divergence so I like the looks of this.

 As mentioned in a previous update, the Q's were behind the most so they will work the hardest today and the 5 min is still in line, but the Q's are far from filling the gap.

 The SPY is doing the same as the DIA on the 5 min chart, which is good.

As well as ES.

I mentioned last night this gap may be filled in my daily wrap, it's not a concern at all for me on the short side, especially on such a light volume day with the bond market's closed.

ES Update

Volume is very thin today with Veterans' Day in the US (the bond market is closed) and Armistice day in the EU. However, ES looks to be rounding over with 3C.

Market Update

 DIA 1 min rounding over

 DIA 2 min

 DIA 5 min

 Just as the Q's way underperformed yesterday, they should have more catching up today. 1 min

 QQQ 2 min

 QQQ 5 min

 SPY 2 min and 1 min are starting to track down

 SPY 5 min

 Here's the DIA gap-filled

 The SPY gap nearly filled

I dubt the QQ gap will be filled. The trade looks parabolic on these 30 min charts and I would guess from the charts, it will be parabolic on the way dwn as well before the weekend.

Market Update

My updates and comments today are going to be a bit briefer then norm, I've been fighting going to the Emergency Room since 3 a.m. with what I'm sure is a kidney stone.

Right now the market is up on some brief hope as votes are paving the way for leaders to step down in Greece and Italy.

The SPY 1 min chart is falling a little out f line, the 2 min and 5 min are still strong and we are in the space of the gap that I mentioned last night that may e filled, it runs up to about $127.70 n the SPY.

If any reverses first, I expect the DIA as the short term charts there are starting to turn down.