Market sentiment has shifted, this is no run of the mill pullback and I think we got decent positioning on the timeframe, ma day earlier would have been the best, but I did write this on Feb 3rd at 3:18 pm,
"I'm seeing a lot of activity suggesting we are seeing the top of the bounce or the start of the top. So the shorts I've been talking about, maybe start adding to and getting into those positions but remain conservative until we get confirmation, but we are acting now on the shorts."
So I'm happy all in all with the way the indicators are performing.We even got a nice exit today out of our BOFL position at about 15% and added a bunch to the shorts all this week.
The market closed really bad today, didn't really bust through support but closed at the low of the day with a 10:1 ratio of stocks closing down on rising volume vs.stocks closing up-That's huge and is either going to sink more Friday (I'd say it will) or has quickly hit an oversold condition-The VIX is soaring.
So are there shorts out there still? Yes! If I'm right, then this is just the beggining of a much larger trend down and we'll be tlking about how to make more than 100% on a short. So don't feel like the 5% move down today in many of these has sidelined you, they are still very short-able in the larger context. When I see what looks like a home run I'll post them but for now last night's list which was a bit big, is the current positions as most of the shorts I have, already moved-might as well hit these high Beta shorts.
What I posted yesterday was significant, and they were the highest Beta stock in the WL. What is important now is propper position sizing and diversification.
If you want a second opinion then let me know by email. Lets see what you have on the short side, what your exposure is and what needs to be trimmed or added. For rigt now let these shorts work. Another ippourtnity will present it self.
A strane chart that doesn't make a lot of sense to me is AIG starting to look a little bullish. There's a chance it may have some sort of pop or breakout from the descending wedge. If you try it, be conervative-these patterns usually give second chances to add, but it's one of the strangest charts I've seen as a long right now.
Use the email, I'm here to help and answer your questions: Brandt@Trade-Guild.net or Bt24_7@yahoo.com
Thursday, February 4, 2010
TIME TO START HITTING THE SHORTS
I have a lot I can give you, even look at past ideas within the last week or so, like STD which gave a good entry few days back.
CTIC had a decent move today-look for follow through and an exit.
Reiterate Shorts on PWRD, JEF,GS.
The ideas I gave you for the 4th-on the list as the 3rd, are the ones that look the best now with the highest BETA. If I were to give you all, there would be 50. The Beta means if the market moves 1% and the stock has a Beta of 1, then it would move 1%. If the Beta is 1.20 then it would move about 1.2%. So some of these are big movers.
With the dollar showing strength I have Silver and oil on the list. Also there several foreign banks on the list, nearly all I'm tracking look bad.
Email me if you have questions.
CTIC had a decent move today-look for follow through and an exit.
Reiterate Shorts on PWRD, JEF,GS.
The ideas I gave you for the 4th-on the list as the 3rd, are the ones that look the best now with the highest BETA. If I were to give you all, there would be 50. The Beta means if the market moves 1% and the stock has a Beta of 1, then it would move 1%. If the Beta is 1.20 then it would move about 1.2%. So some of these are big movers.
With the dollar showing strength I have Silver and oil on the list. Also there several foreign banks on the list, nearly all I'm tracking look bad.
Email me if you have questions.
