For awhile today it looked as if we might see a bearish engulfing pattern-the Q's did, but the rest of the market didn't and XLF was actually up today. Everything was missing any sense of direction. It may be like a doji day (which it wasn't) in which upside momentum waned and perhaps tomorrow we'll see something definitive, but as of now, still sitting on our hands and waiting for this market to tell us when o jump back in -either one gun or both barrels blazing.
If you are a swing or day trader let me know and I'll come up with some trades for you, but if you are following our current model-Trend, then just sit tight.\\
a few trades of recent that I still like-PWRD (S), AMZN (S), MOT (S), the TASR long has performed well-18% in 3 days, MSO (L) still looks ok, CRR (S) is performing, INAP was up as much as 10% in days.
So for now, again, we'll sit this out another day, but at least we are moving in the right direction.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Patience is a Virtue
Right now we are sitting on our hands until the effects of the Fed decision are fully realized. In the past, the original reaction (this time was a rally) is almost always the wrong reaction and the markets reverse within days. It's my opinion that the Fed is making $ for the banks and such more expensive for a single reason and moving the discount rate terms from 30 days back to overnight confirms my suspicions which have been with me for awhile as Fed and Treasury statements in the near past have all seem to be aimed at the banks, "Close your Carry Trade Positions"-I see this move as a shot across the bow, thus perhaps that's why we saw such a wild early market decline today.
We will see. Thursday/Friday formed a small Harami reversal and today-thus far it looked like we were not only getting confirmation but a bearish engulfing pattern as well.
If you are not afraid of risk then I think you can short in these areas, we prefer to sit on our hands for a day and wait confirmation-we won't be missing that much of the move. It will also allow me time to see who is going to get hit the hardest (read as -where has most of the Carry Trade money gone?-gold, semi's, emerging markets?). So that's the analysis for now, it may be updated later today.
We will see. Thursday/Friday formed a small Harami reversal and today-thus far it looked like we were not only getting confirmation but a bearish engulfing pattern as well.
If you are not afraid of risk then I think you can short in these areas, we prefer to sit on our hands for a day and wait confirmation-we won't be missing that much of the move. It will also allow me time to see who is going to get hit the hardest (read as -where has most of the Carry Trade money gone?-gold, semi's, emerging markets?). So that's the analysis for now, it may be updated later today.
