Sunday Futures

As you have seen, all of the talk and news of the weekend os largely centered on what looks like an imminent cruise missile attach on Syria, I'll leave it at that other than to say the market is not fond of uncertainty, thus the saying, "When the missiles fly, it's time to buy", which is not a nod to war, it's a nod to the removal of uncertainty in the run up to a potential military action.

Futures however for the most part, look as if nothing was going on except in a few areas.

I pretty much wrapped up what we were seeing in 3C charts in the market late Friday in this post.

The gist of the post was this...

"unless something dramatic changes between now and the close, I'd expect weakness in to the close and likely Monday early on, however the 10-15 min charts and even 30 and 60 min in HY Credit are VERY strong so I have little doubt a downside move this afternoon or in to Monday will be nothing more than noise, but may be good for some trades."

We saw a late day VIX Smash to pump the SPX over its 50-day ma.a

This sent the SPX (red) closing +.38% just above it 50-day m.a.

You may recall earlier however, I did like the VXX for a short term long trade (meaning the market moves the opposite direction short term) based on this chart and some others out to about 5-10 min positive...

 This may indeed be the early market weakness I posted about in the afternoon for the start of the week as VXX moves opposite the market. However as I said, I think it will be little more than noise or a distraction and ultimately the market will continue on with a bounce that I think can be seen as having started on the ES (SPX Futures) 60 min chart.

You may recall many positive divergences started around 8/16, the same as this ES 60 min chart, it's leading positive so a bounce to me is very likely, however, there's room there for a short term pullback starting early in the week, like I said though, for the very short term, I do think this bounces completes its move higher.

Perhaps reflecting short term weakness early in the week as I posted above Friday afternoon, this R2K 5 min futures chart is a good representation...

This 5 min negative divergence would suggest early weakness just as many other charts did late Friday, but it's still no match for the 60 min positive above suggesting we will continue the bounce that has started, ultimately leading to a much larger move to the downside which I believe we are already engaged in. The market has a lot of jiggles or noise, some are useful, many are there to throw traders off or create opportunities not only for Wall St., but they can work for us as well.

As mentioned in Friday's EOD post, Credit is showing strong positive divergences so I think it is a big help with the continuation of a market bounce.

Futures tonight in some areas look like nothing is going on, take ES for example.

Since ES opened tonight, it's nearly flat from Friday's close.

However some you might have expected to move (remember covering the XOM short and opening XOM Calls Friday?)... Crude Futures...

Crude gapped up tonight obviously on concerns over Syria.

Guess what else gapped up? Precious metals, both gold and silver...

However, so far, neither one has been able to hold the gap and have fallen below Friday Futures close.

Another interesting opening in futures is US Treasury Futures...

1 min 30 year Treasury futures gap down sending yields up, which equities "typically" follow, for now though all across the curve T's have gapped down and not surprising with an afternoon 3C negative divergence.

SURPRISINGLY, currencies are relatively flat for all of the commotion!

As of the information we have from late Friday and the opening of futures tonight, I have no reason to change any expectation: very short term (almost negligible) early weakness in the market this week, the continuing trend I believe will be a continued bounce that started accumulation 8/16 and thus should be pretty decent which we have many short term positions set up for-early weakness in the market tomorrow may give us more opportunities to set up short term positions... and ultimately the bounce leading to a much larger break to the down side than we have seen in recent changes in character like the Dow-Industrials closing red for 3 consecutive weeks now. Not long ago we couldn't get 3 consecutive days down in any average!

I'll see you in a few hours.