LVS Trade Idea (Short)

 A big triangle-an obvious top that has broken down after kissing the pattern goodbye.

 30 min neg. divergences confirm the top/distribution/short selling.

 The 1 min suggests a bounce-a good place to initiate a short or phase into one.

ADX turned down from over 50-the end of the trend. The trend channel has held the uptrend perfectly here and the stop is just below $50, this looks to be a great trade, especially if we can get a bounce on it.

Follow Through or 1 day oversold?

Tomorrow should tell us a lot about how bad off this market is. the dominant price -volume relationship was price down and volume up which normally creates a 1-day oversold bounce, we also had some late day 3C positive divergences on 1 min charts. We should see a bounce correction tomorrow, but if we see resumed downside on volume, this market is in huge trouble.

If we get the bounce, it's still in trouble and you just need to keep your eye on the trend, it would be very normal to see a bounce tomorrow and healthy for a bear market as well. If we don't-watch out below.

Another Warning-

Don't get lost in the lines of intraday pullbacks, maybe an oversold correction tomorrow or any of that, remember the bigger picture, that' what you should be preparing for. Here's a reminder.

The market has done what we've expected since that wedge and is looking very bad. I'd try not to get too aggressive in trading the jiggles and keep your eye on the prize.

Naval Assets

The USS Kearsarge and the USS Ponce as well as the Enterprise Aircraft Carrier are all en route-thse are strike groups so there are additional ships within each. Like I said when Egypt's Mubarak left, "this isn't the end of anything, it's the start" and this is a very ugly region with massive implications. I doubt the Fed can fight the market too long on this one.


Story from the National Journal

The US is escalating uncertainty with the Troop/Naval/Air force Deployments

And the market hates uncertainty, especially just before a potential outbreak of hostilities. Thus the term, "when the missiles fly, it's time to by". Because we love war? The market loves war? I don't know about that, I do know that it has a lot to do with the fact that the uncertainty has been removed.

check the news for the latest deployments, Stratfor should be updating US Naval positions, but the  Kearsarge with it's marines and amphibious assault craft as well as jump jets is moving on scene. Germany has sent several attack ships as well as Canada now. Check Google for Robert Gates + Libya + Troop deployments. There are other naval assets in the region as well, I believe we have an aircraft carrier or two -I'll have to check Stratfor's latest deployment map.

F Trade Alert

I just mentioned this one and it has given a swing short signal at $14.89 (remember yesterday's risk management example) -stops include: $15.29 and what is now $15.69.

INSIDERS STILL WANT OUT

Update-I corrected the $ figures, forgot to add the zeros.

Bloomberg released the insider sales to buys report today, here's the chart of what they look like

That ratio is 122 shares sold for every 1 bought, it's been like this for a long time. In dollar terms, about $128  million in buys and and $5.4 Billion in sales. As always, there's a lot of reasons an insider may sell, but "I think my stock is going to be worth a lot more soon" is not one of them.

Another Clue

As price didn't already tell us this market is ugly, thus i've been encouraging you to raise cash, lower long margin and get your toes wet on the short side, we also have this NYSE TICK chart and this is the worst I've seen it since watching it.

This shows advancing issues and declining issues for each tick on a 1 minute chart. It's rare to see a couple of spikes at -1250, today we see most of the day there. This is part and parcel of the horrible market breadth I've warned about as the Fed manipulates the averages higher, but not the entire breadth of the market-it's called "Getting the most bang for your buck" to create the "wealth effect" and it's done by buying the heavily weighted stocks on an index.

THIS CHART IS REALLY UGLY

SPY

For our newer members if I didn't say it, obvious pattern like this wedge get broken up before they take off, there's still a positive divergence there so we still have a very good chance of seeing an intraday move to retrace the wedge, whether that is today, or tomorrow morning, I don't know. However, anytime there's an obvious technical pattern, the black box trading algorithms that search them out, usually throw traders off by initially doing the opposite of what is expected (in this case an upside breakout), after they run the stops and limits, they usually turn the pattern to what it should do, so we can't automatically assume this is a failed pattern, in fact, we usually assume that this is the black box game and the pattern is still relevant.

MOVEMENT IN THE DOLLAR/EURO

UUP is our dollar index proxy as the DI doesn't give me intraday volume information.

FXE-Euro Trust ETF

 60 min negative divergence-leading too!

 15 min leading negative divergence

 And th recent 5 min activity, Euro falling!

 FXE daily chart-hit resistance today and looks to be a failure of momentum opening the door to downside.

UUP-the Dollar index is weighted 50% by the Euro, so the Euro has the most effect on it and UUP

 UUP crossing resistance just recently on the daily chart

 30 min positive divergence-another downside head fake?

15 min positive divergence-usually the timeframe where we see reversals.

I'm not sure what the catalyst is here, but we do have some bullish movement in the dollar. Traditionally, the dollar has an inverse correlation with commodities, equities and especially oil.

Charts You Should Know About...

Here are a number of charts looking quite bearish I've found with a scan and flipping through watchlists:


USG looks like a short right here.
BEN looks the same, a short right in here
BRCD was just covered and it's doing what I expected. Most of these charts I have only had a glance at, BRCD I've looked at more carefully.
ALK looks like a short right here.
RCL is also looking like a short here
MEOH is either at a short or very close, depending on your risk tolerance..
XOMA is one that I'm looking at as a possible long, I like what I see thus far
JOE looks like a short right here


I'll try to give some more insight after market, but take a look at these now.

Just Noticed this

Hourly chart of the SPY, note the small hourly gap-remember gap resistance/support is often the best, so our wedge that formed is right.... You guessed it, at a natural spot for a little fight to be put up at support.

Broad Market Update

2 p.m. is the time we usually see some market hanky panky-the close is the most important, around 3:30 the day traders start to close out positions, so lets see what's cooking.

SLV

 OK, still not seeing intraday price activity that looks like short covering and right now our daily candle has traced out an evening star which is the first part of 2 candles for a reversal. The action alone shows a loss of upside price momentum-thus short covering? Probably not seeing a lot of that.

 SLV 1 min in a lateral trend, good for distribution and a 3C negative divergence. There has been no upside since the negative divergence.

 The 5 min 3C chart is looking worse, it's in a leading negative divergence and there's been no upside confirmation for today's price move, again not really a healthy looking chart right here and my guess is that a reversal is brewing.

SPY

 Today's confirmation candle of yesterday's star is also suggesting a reversal in the SPY-which could be VERY serious for market downside as I showed yesterday with the close only chart of the S&P, it was "kissing the support goodbye". Now I'd be surprised to see the market allow such a traditional reversal without some games, but if the Fed is no longer able to steer the market, then what we are seeing may be the real deal, we may finally be seeing a transparent market and according to the amount of accumulation that caused this correction, the reversal here would make sense.


 Intraday, 2:00 p.m. hanky panky, we have a very obvious "bullish" descending wedge so we may see that intraday upside that muddies the reversal from nice and clean to .... questionable. Ultimately though, you have to remember the bigger trend and intraday hanky panky is just that.

 Here's the positive intraday 1 min divergence suggesting the wedge breaks out to the upside...

 5 min though, which is more serious is not showing the same, just downside confirmation. However if we do see a positive divergence form here, then we can look forward to the muddy reversal.

USO

 The 1 min 3C with the positive divergence of late yesterday noted earlier, and we are seeing confirmation of the price trend today.

  The 5 min is a bit more negative, not too bad of a divergence, but we don't want to see it develop. Remember I said earlier, "I'm not convinced that the correction in USO is over yet".

The 60 min chart which is a broader view is still in line which to me suggests that even if we do have more correction/consolidation, we still have a bullish longer term outlook in USO.

BQI Trade Idea

 BQI is in a bigger consolidation triangle-note the stops have been hit on the upside and downside, I call that a "Crazy Ivan" for those who saw The Hunt For Red October. It's a Russian submarine maneuver designed to detect any subs that follow in the prop wash where they can not be detected. In trading, it's clearing all the stops ad limit orders and often happens before a breakout- at least with increasing frequency.

 60 min 3C positive and negative divergences at the head fakes.

The 15 min chart is also showing a positive divergence on the recent downside break down.

I like the trade here, and here's why...

looking at the daily chart again, note the "tweezer bottom" support put in today and Monday, that's an area where I'd put a stop just below so there's not too much risk, especially as most traders were already stopped out on the break of obvious support-that's why we don't put stops in places like that and NEVER on the books with our brokers if we can help it. If the trade goes bad, not much risk there, if it goes well, then you have a great entry.

GLD intraday

There's a negative divergence, GLD has added nothing since it showed up on the 1 min. Watch this and DZZ as posted earlier. This, (considering the larger pattern) may be significant.

There Goes CFW!

CFW Trade Alert

This is one we played in January and it looks like it's gathering a head of steam. Don't let the price gain through you, with risk management it's all the same.

 Rectangular or lateral movement tends to be areas of accumulation/distribution, especially accumulation as the locals seek to fill at a particular average price. When volume surges like we see today, that's a call to retail traders running volume surge screens as they believe volume surges are smart money buying-they are not, smart money bought long before and is only advertising what retail traders believe to be their buying. This often marks the start of stage 2 "Mark up" in which smart money will slowly distribute their shares into demand as to not effect the delicate supply/demand balance and to get the highest average selling price as they sell into demand.

 The daily 3C chart looks a whole lot like good accumulation. If this base breaks out, it could support a multiple leg move that could see 3 digit gains.. Note TSV confirming n the bottom window.

 The 30 min chart showing another positive divergence at the lows-again, "best average cost basis" and again TSV confirms.

The large triangles as I often say are bases or tops, depending on the preceding trend, this would be a base. A breakout above today's highs looks like a good confirmation zone, but there are many entries including taking it here. My stop would be at the red trendline area -maybe $.33-NOT $.35 as it's too obvious.

Good luck-this sector is still hot and in rotation.

A False Breakout in Gold?

For me, the precious metals have been very complicated for a number of reasons, but we are looking at DZZ-an inverse ETF or short on Gold and it's break down today, is it real or not?

 First of all there's a very well seen line of support in DZZ, that becomes a very obvious place to put stops for technical traders, it also becomes an obvious target for black box trading and HFT firms so the breakdown is in line with a false break because of the support issue alone.

Looking at the 5 min 3C we see some positive action. I'd like to see this followed up of course by a move above resistance (former support) and our answer will be more definitive, right now I'd say there is a GOOD chance this is a head fake move. Any positions taken now in light of that should be probing, confirmation is when we want to get more serious about the position size.

Watch for a price move above $7.88.

A Hint?

 The VXX short term futures have an inverse relation with the market-the S&P-500 is in white.

Take a look at the volume and price action in VXX recently! A message, seems that way.

By the way, Senator Toomey just schooled Bernanke, it was embarrassing for Bernanke.

DBLE Trade (long)

 This is a pretty hot sector, the consolidation looks good to me.

The trend channel has held the entire uptrend, I'd consider it as a stop.

3C isn't showing much here as many indicators get turned around in consolidations, but a move above $11.60 would be very interesting as a long position.

Some Leveraged Inverse ETFs I've liked

 EDZ -nice base, and moving up today on volume

 EDZ 15 min positive leading divergence

FXP

 The trend is clearly up, today we get a bounce off support.

 Again, the 15 min is in a positive divergence-remember 15 min generally is a good time frame to see reversals.

TZA

 TZA has tested support and held, we ar seeing a nice move up today which may be the start of a leg up.

The 1 min chart is showing excellent confirmation.

I like all of these here, I'd like to add these positions and build them, not just to buy all at once, tops in the market are too volatile and we should always wait for confirmation before swinging for th fences, but as I said, I like all in the area.

Quick SLV/USO Update

SLV is significantly more complicated, but lets take a look at the short term in the moves up in both today.

 Posible negative divergence in SLV, the gap wasn't that big so we want to watch and see if this develops more.

USO has been trading in line with price, which is good. We can still have pullbacks intraday, but so long as we aren't seeing distribution, I'm still liking the move up in USO.