The Week Behind, The Week Ahead

Well we were right on the base, the market move which wasn't just a bounce,m but the best 3-day move in the market the entirety of 2013 while everyone was as bearish as could be. We even got the specific catalyst that would spark the market correct, but this was a small opportunity, on a scale of 1-10, maybe a 3. I believe before this move is over we'l have about a 5 and the next opportunity that this move sets up (have you noticed how one move in the market sets up the next?) will likely be a 10, the kind of move that we may only see once in a lifetime.

I'll be addressing the week behind us because the market doesn't do anything randomly, random events sometimes effect the market such as the large banking sector liquidity CRISIS in China this week that seems to be the reason gold and silver were slapped around when they were otherwise ready to rally. Just look at the Precious Metals right on the Chinese market open, the Chinese banks that can't find any liquidity just like the US financial crisis that brought down Lehman, a company around nearly a century, are selling assets to raise capital and one of their largest holdings at a gain is gold and silver. If they don't raise liquidity, they could be the next Lehman and the normal channels (other banks on overnight loans) are shut down, just like Lehman because in an opaque market such as the US financial system in 2008, the counter-party risk was too large, in other words you didn't know if the bank you were lending to was a Lehman or not. Now just imagine how much more opaque China is, so yes, sometimes there are surprise events that the market has to discount on the spot as they were not anticipated by the market.

The week behind will lead to the week ahead and what to expect.

I'll address the amazing call (amazing not because it was right, but because it was true, it actually happened) of the F_E_D somehow being the catalyst and an amazing (6) F_E_D speakers this week, each with their own job to do to control the market; the first 3 created the strong 3-day rally, the 4th and 5th created the draw-down (semi-pullback today as we expected yesterday) which could have been for several reasons from the op-ex pin to creating an actual pullback.

The final speaker of the week gave the market the same message the first three F_E_D speakers gave the market.

Can you honestly say you think this was coincidence? The fact we had so many F_E_D speakers, the fact that the 3 Hawks all came out with the same message which was extremely uncharacteristic and on the day they needed the market to at least consolidate for at least an op-ex pin (there were two speakers right in time for the market to do what was needed today-again both sharing the same message and one of them was from earlier in the week now giving the opposite message). Clearly the number of speakers, the clusters they were in and timing and messages they carried at the time was what was needed, when something else was needed as we saw the underlying trade YESTERDAY suggesting at minimum an op-ex pin and more likely a pullback to come,  what exactly are the chances that we have two additional speakers  (one of which was almost contradicting himself from earlier statements in the week) and they were right in time (just before the market open) to create the price move needed?

Do you believe in coincidences like this in the market?

Look at it this way, you know we were already expecting a strong move to the upside well before the start of this week (and I mean even stronger than the strongest 3-day rally in all of 2013 that we saw this week), the signals were already in, we just needed some catalyst to serve as a spark and to give Financial media an excuse to give the masses who want to understand the market rather than make money in it.

 When the market was set up (the right size base and accumulation were in place) for a move to the upside at the start of the new week, we just so happen to have 3 F_E_D speakers to give the market the only message it cares about right now, and to make it more believable, they use 3 of the biggest hawks who have opposed the VERY message they delivered.

And as you know we had signals yesterday that suggested the market at least holds for an Options Expiration pin, if not a decent pullback and more likely BOTH....

Right after ES (The S&P E-mini Futures) makes the high for the week and between 15 and 90 minutes before the market opens, we have a cluster of 2 F_E_D speakers just before the open to make sure the above happens, or in more detail...

 This is overnight trade with ES building on Thursday's close and moving ES to an overnight (3 a.m.) high of the week, setting the market up for a 4th day of gains, but we already knew that couldn't happen from the 3C signals Thursday...


So at 8 a.m. and 9:15 before the market opens, two F_E_D speakers (one who already spoke earlier in the week to pump the market) give the opposite message from earlier in the week so the market looks like this in to the open...

What are the chances that we have 6 speakers, 3 who are known hawks come and say exactly what the market needed to hear, but only after the 4-day base we predicted last week was built and the 3C accumulation was in place and then we see distribution signals Thursday and futures make a new high for the week overnight to add to the already record 3-day move for the year, which we already knew Thursday couldn't be allowed to happen as distribution was already set in motion. So what are the chances that those two speakers contradict what the other three said earlier in the week (AGAIN WITH ONE OF THEM CONTRADICTING HIS OWN MESSAGE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK) to once again give the market EXACTLY what it needed?

Coincidence? Coincidence that I could have predicted it over the weekend? 

You can make up your own minds, but from the way I've seen mini market cycles set up days and weeks in advance and how they lead to larger cycles that have been set up months in advance take place and how we were able to use that information to make winning trades that placed us in the top 1/10th of 1 % of all portfolios, I can't imagine that is coincidence.

So this weekend, I'll show you the signs and signals in place for our next round of, "Random Market Walk".

MCP P/L Equity Long

 MCP  has been a position we've had interest in for some time. We did however have a MCP "New Position or Add-to" alert on 6/21

The alert came out right where the white arrow is on this 30 min chart.

Around 11:10 this morning the MCP July $5 calls were closed in this post, "MCP Position Management" I said I'd be closing the calls as I didn't see any further momentum that would add to their value short term, but since the equity position doesn't rely on volatility, time decay, etc. I also said in that post that I'd leave the equity long position open.

The fill for the July $5 calls was just over a +25% gain.

Later in the day at 3:36 I posted, that I'd be taking at least half of the long equity position off the table this turned out to be the intraday highs of the day and this is the P/L for the equity position below...

At the $6.17 fill, the P/L for the equity MCP position came to +8.25%.

I love MCP and look forward to re-entering the position.

When traders chose positions, they get it all backwards, they pick the stock and then they hope the market cooperates with their position.

The greatest force moving the majority of stocks on any given day is the market, the second largest force (typically and more specifically in a healthy-non-manipulated environment in which Sector Rotation is active) is obviously Sectors in or out of rotation and finally, believe it or not, the least influential (of course with obvious caveats) is the stock itself. In our case this is not as true because we can see where extraordinary events are occurring such as in MCP.

In any case, closing MCP right now has a lot more to do with general very near term market conditions than the stock itself.

As I was saying, I love MCP and beyond the typical "Move with the market" assets, there are a few out there that have their own legs and will either buck the market's trend or they will trade directionally with the market, but have much better relative performance.

I'll post MCP charts as well so you can see why I'd like to re-enter MCP at more favorable prices.

 This is the MCP 3-min intraday 3C signal going from accumulation to price / 3C trend confirmation to a negative intraday divergence  today, especially toward the close. I ended up closing the entire position.

 The 5 min chart makes the accumulation period very clear, it also makes clear that the size of the accumulation period is more than enough to support a move higher, however the EOD negative divergence suggested that MCP would see a pullback in the near term and I decided, rather than hold MCP through draw down in a very volatile and unpredictable period, I'd rather not have MCP acting as "Opportunity cost for the roughly $10k position size when those funds could be better utilized short term or at least are safe off the table.

The 10 min MCP chart shows distribution at the two parabolic-like spikes in May and accumulation in MCP starting earlier in June.

Remember how I said wherever the divergence first starts, even with lower prices as this is the way institutional money has to accumulate because of their position sizes,  in my many years of 3C experience I've noted that the eventual reversal from accumulation will exceed the level in which accumulation was first noticed. Well that happened again (this is the 3rd example in the last few days), thus as long as the signal stays solid, I have faith in the indicator.

Again the size of the base here and I could make a case for an even larger base, is more than enough to make a much higher move as we expect generally and specifically with MCP as it has legs of its own outside of market correlation.

So I'll be looking for a lower price area with confirmed 3C accumulation of the pullback (which should be at least a fill of today's gap)  to re-open at least the equity longs and perhaps the call position if the environment is favorable.

GLD / SLV

I don't have any really good signals that suggest either should be closed so I'm leaving them as is.

I don't like the idea of ever chasing an asset, but especially not one that's up 2.5 to 5.5% today. That's me.

Closing NUGT Long Equity Position

I'd like to re-open it, but for now I think the signals are on the side of closing it near term

Taking at Least Half of MCP off the Table (Equity long)

VXX/ UVXY Positions (Long)

You already know I took a call in UVXY meaning I do expect a pretty serious pullback, there's no point in doing these things if they aren't effective and to be effective they need to create Fear, Greed and HOPE.

 VXX 2 min


3 min

5 min

10 min

30 min

This still looks very much like the market movement expected yesterday, pullback and finish a very strong upside move.

Closest thing to a market update

The general gist: There are a lot of short term hum-drum signals, I could take them to mean the pullback is coming starting today at the close or that we could see some more fooling around in this area before a pullback. 

Overall if you want to play it safer (note I only took 1 pullback position, the UVXY call), I might skip trying to trade the pullback and keep your eye on the first prize to the upside which unlocks the final prize.

NOW...

First let me say that the biggest mover of the market I think will be the 3:30 F_E_D speech.

I also do not consider today to be a pullback, it started looking that way early, but in my opinion today has been nothing more than an op-ex pin.

Furthermore, when I say pullback in this environment, I don't mean a little dip and then everything is happy again, this is meant to scare the hell out of any long and make all shorts feel like geniuses.


First Index Futures look to me like there's still a decent pullback coming, we really haven't had much more than an op-ex pin today. However that said, the long charts 30-60  and even 2 hour all are still on board with a bigger move to the upside.

HYG is underperforming the SPX today, also 3C charts say to me the pullback is not only not done, it really hasn't even started yet, but the longer trend expected still has HYG on board.

High Yield is in line, I'd say it will move, but the fact that it is not panicked alone suggests to me they know what's coming (the upside move).

Commodities are broadly not supportive, but not in a huge way, but this time they don't have the $USD to blame completely.

Sentiment indicators are either in line or in the case of FCT, dragging, they are expecting some downside, but they aren't panicked by any means, suggesting to me they still believe in a very strong move after a pullback.

Niether the Aussie or the Euro are near term supportive, just the opposite in fact.

Yields have even given up ground, long term (as in the final up move we expect) they are still in the right place, shorter term as in intraday and day to day over the next couple/several days, they have moved to a position in which they'd exert downside magnetism on the market.

Overall if you want to play it safer (note I only took 1 pullback position, the UVXY call), I might skip trying to trade the pullback and keep your eye on the first prize to the upside which unlocks the final prize.

Full AAPL Update

Or at least as full as I can offer during the trading day.

This is why AAPL is one of the few bounce trades (meaning unlike UNG which I think will be a primary bull position over the next year, whereas AAPL will still be a primary bear position, but has a better bounce than most other assets we have call options in) that I not only have July Calls in and I think they'll be fine, but also one that has enough upside potential to also have a long equity (no leverage) position as well, which is better served for the longer trend than the call.

The reason why? I don't think AAPL is a bounce, I think its a counter trend rally (and these are the strongest rallies you'll see in the market).

AS far as today, remember what I said at the start of the week, this is the end of Q2 and there's going to be window dressing (The Institutional/ Hedge Fund "Art of Looking Smart"). I also said Thursday (yesterday) was the last day for trades to be made and show up in the new prospectus, client report. Even though the end of the quarter isn't until today, the T+3 (Trade plus 3 days) settlement rule would make yesterday the last day to move positions  and since AAOL has lost 8% this quarter, 28% this year and about 45% since its highs last year, I'd think most managers wouldn't want AAPL showing up as a current holding, but if it were me, as soon as the last day is over (yesterday), I'd buy AAPL back and clients wouldn't know about it until the end of the next quarter (with some obvious caveats).

This is why I think AAPL didn't participate this week and why AAPL looks a bit different today than the rest of the week.

This is a chart I drew some time ago, I didn't even remember it until I stumbled on the layout. What I was showing you was the change in character from a downtrend to a lateral trend which is most often a base. Then what looks like a large bull flag, because of the triangle and the probability of a base under construction, the obvious assumption would be Technical traders would see a head fake and the triangle would see a downside break instead of the upside break the technical pattern suggests, another example of Technical Analysis being used against technical traders.

 Just from a "feel" perspective, with a 45% loss under its arm, this looks and feels like the right area for a counter-trend rally, not a trend reversal, but a rally that makes people believe that. 

The Crash of 1929 and bear market that followed saw 5 counter-trend rallies , the first one started 3 months after the crash started and ultimately moved +50%over 5 months, how many people do you think bought in to the move as being a real, renewed uptrend? I'd say 95%.

 This is my X-over screen to avoid false X-overs and to manage trades, pullback expectations, etc.  Since 2009, the indicators all stayed long, RSI gave a hint at the top, but they would have kept you in for the majority of the gain.

The confirmed signal down is still in effect and may stay in effect even with a counter trend rally. So far the Price window has given a long signal, the other two (custom indicator and RSI below) have stayed in a "non-confirmation" mode for the price window X-over.

 My Trend Channel would have kept you long until the decline from the highs to $610, but that's the majority of the trend. Note the change in character with the increased upside move in yellow, this is always a warning the trend is about to end. The current short stop would be $465. I think we could see that level.

 My long term 3C is clearly negative, as far as I'm concerned, counter-trend rally or not, AAPL is a long term bear and when its in the right position, I'll reopen the short.

My MACD Heat Map takes some explaining, but it did suggest a bounce/rally was coming as well as calling the top.

The 1 min 3C and volume saw one of the larger volume moves this morning, head fake moves, even on a 1 min timeframe (fractal nature of the market) are there for a purpose. Please read my two articles on Head fake moves to understand why.

 The 3 min 3C shows stronger than usual accumulation and right at the area of large volume this morning.

The 5 min chart, note how strong the leading positive divergence is in general, but especially today.

 Even the 10 min 3C saw an increased 3C move today.

 The 15 min positive trend, this shows a large base, a lot of accumulation and a move that has so much upside potential, it can only be a counter-trend rally, no bounce has this much support from 3C.

Despite two triangles that should have produced large volume for institutional money to accumulate, in the end it was the psychological $400 level that had the largest volume.

The overall 30 min. Note the positive divergence in to the bottom at "A" and how much bigger the current leading positive divergence is at "B" so I'd expect a move much stronger than the one that started at "A".

While I don't want to chase any asset, I think AAPL is still a good add to or new position right here, that even counts for options, although longer dat

AAPL is Finally looking like it should

It looks like the signals that AAPL has been giving are finally going to pay off. I believe I mentioned last night that while the market was having its best 3 day period of the year, AAPL was moving almost directly opposite to about the same degree, but it has maintained a positive 3C position which is why I've left both the $400 July Calls and the AAPL long equity positions both open.

Charts are coming, but I wanted to get this out, AAPL does look like its time has come.

$USD and possible embargo on Williams' Speech broken?

I think this is the reason for the 3C move in ES and other averages...

Not that the market has followed the legacy arbitrage correlation at all this week, it may be getting ready to now? FX correlations have flipped at least 3 times since last week. The 1 min $USDX leading negative looks almost like the mirror opposite of ES 1 min.

As far as short term, after the 1 min there's not much more of a signal.

There is a 30 min leading negative, but it's almost impossible to say how it effects the market as the $USD's correlation was positive with the market at the start of last week, it flipped 180 degrees at the F_O_M_C, then this week it flipped again back to a correlation similar to the start of last week's like a carry trade, and now? Who knows.

The only thing I do feel strongly about as far as the $USD making such a sudden move, is the HIGH probability that the 3:30 John Williams speech has made it out of media embargo and someone on the street is acting on it. "If" this were the case, then my earlier notion today that a 3:30 F_E_D speaker could undo any market pullback or correction in to the close at least, would be right on and also answer a shocking answer as to corruption, but perhaps not a very surprising answer.

IS the F_E_D moving the market this week in a very detailed way as I suggested it would last Saturday?

IF this happens to be true, obviously it would end the pullback/consolidation in to the close.

Quick Market Update

So far this is just an intraday signal and we still have plenty of time for more than 1 intraday trend to play out.

All of the Index futures 1 min charts are leading positive pretty strongly.

All of the averages have either a 1 or 2 min 3C move that is either leading, but most are not, however they are improving at a very fast rate.

Here's an example of a leading move in ES, SPX E-mini futures.

ES 1 min

As an intraday chart it doesn't make a huge difference to the market update, which I'm still working on as there are some ambiguous or just not very powerful signals, for me at this time it is not a question of whether the uptrend will continue and be as strong as expected, for me it's more of a question of timing and more specifically the timing until the move to the upside resumes in earnest, not a pullback or even consolidation (choppy noise within a trend).

UVXY

I'll get to the market update ASAP, of course a position long UVXY obviously would have market implications, UVXY moves up, the market (typically and I say this because this very strong inverse correlation had an exception yesterday) moves down.

However as I mentioned in the last post about UVXY calls, I said this may be a "Very" short term trade.

 Here;s the VXX (UVXY is the leveraged version of VXX- Short term VIX Futures) in red vs the SPY in green. Note there's typically a nearly perfect inverse (opposite) correlation and for a good reason, if VIX futures are being bid up, it's typically for protection in response to the market moving down.

Interestingly yesterday the correlation didn't hold so well and VXX fell when it should have been rising. Today the correlation is working intraday, BUT, VXX should be in the green today, it's not because of yesterday's activity.

 This is UVXY's 1 min going positive here, you can see clear 3C distribution on the open today.

This is the chart that spurred me to action, the 2 min UVXY which had been in line with price action over the last 3 days seen here, today though it's leading positive in a big way, (even bigger right now)

 An intraday look at the same chart

The 5 min shows where UVXY went leading negative and at the second high, exceptionally leading negative, but now a relative positive. Remember relative divergences are always much weaker than a leading divergence, but this still is important.

 UVXY 10 min showing the 3C divergences at former tops and some accumulation, but what's important now is the leading negative 3C signal at a new leading low. This suggests that the UVXY move up will be short lived, that's in line with market pullback expectations, pullback enough to get the shorts frenzied and entering short, but ultimately the market should squeeze them hard and move to what could even be a new high, but at least a move strong enough to change retail's mind to bullish (they are very fickle).

Just for confirmation, this is the non-leveraged VXX and the 10 min chart, almost exactly the same, the pullback doesn't matter to me as I said yesterday, it's noise, but it's actually helpful in getting shorts to commit, it's this longer term chart that I'm interested in, this is not the ultimate prize, burt as we hitch-hike a ride with the market, it leads right to the ultimate prize.

This is the current 2 mi UVXY chart.

2 min chart at most recent capture.

There's also migration and the 3 min chart is starting to lead positive.

I may also enter a long UVXY equity position as well for the equity tracking portfolio.

Opening UVXY July $70 Call Right Away

This may be a very short term trade, but I think worthwhile.

Charts coming

MCP Update

As you can probably tell by now with that VERY clear MCP triangle, it is becoming a prime candidate for a head fake move, perhaps even a Crazy Ivan (2- head fake moves to clear stops and orders on both sides of the triangle).

Right now the 1 min chart that has been down all day (however the 2 min has been in line-suggesting clearly that the 1 min was all about creating this triangle consolidation), but is starting to move up, it's not bullish as of now, but improving.

This could certainly be a "tell" before a head fake move. The only reason this would matter in my view is for leveraged option positions or getting the very best tactical entry if you have time to watch the market like that. Otherwise as far as the trend in the days and possibly weeks ahead, I see no reason MCP won't head higher.

If we get a breakout/breakdown from the triangle which we will have to get soon as the apex of the triangle is now so narrow, I'll check them right away to see if they are head fake move/moves and what the probabilities are for a leveraged position, where and when.

Quick Market Update

I'll have some charts out shortly, but as you know, I expected a pullback in this area, I don't believe in coincidences as ridiculous as this one would seem to be, but 3:30 could tell us definitively.

In any case, either way, so far I'm seeing EXACTLY what I'd expect from a pullback and what that means is it looks like a pullback, not the bearish action the retail bears (overwhelmingly large numbers yesterday) are expecting. It looks to me so far that this is a pullback as expected and not a reversal of the 3-day move up and yesterday's start to the breakout of the 4+ day base. It looks very much like we will see that strong mover to the upside continue after this brief interlude.

I have to gather a little more data like credit's underlying action, but I'll have charts out shortly.

GLD / SLV Update

There's still no 2 min negatives in GLD or SLV, only the 1 min which as I just explained (and have many times in the past) is a 50/50 chance of an intraday pullback or consolidation, usually it is definitely some correction as we are seeing now, however when the 2 min is added to the miix, then a correction through price becomes the highest probability correction.

Things being as they are, the probabilities are still 50/50 between a consolidation and correction, so far we've had a consolidation.

The 2 min SLV chart is actually leading positive now so it wouldn't be surprising if this consolidation ended and the move to the upside continued.

MCP Charts/ P/L

Fill for the July $5 Calls at just over 25%, the longer MCP moves sideways or down, the more the profit is eaten in to. I always prefer to take the position off the table before the first correction sets in.

That however does not apply to an equity long that does not suffer from time decay and volatility changes.

 The 1 min chart with a negative divergence like this is usually a 50/50 toss up between a consolidation which is a correction through time and a pullback which is a correction through price.

 This is the typical correction through time, a very obvious / clear symmetrical triangle which has no outcome bias on its own, it depends on the preceding trend which in this case is up, so you could call this a small "Bull Pennant" which technical traders expect to break to the upside, which makes the pattern unpredictable as Wall St. likes to use technical analysis against technical traders (i.e. a head fake break below the triangle is something Technical traders would not expect to see and as such they'd take as a failure of the breakout move), even volume is perfect for the pattern.

The 2 min chart is largely in line so it's still a 50/50 toss up as to consolidation or pullback.

It's the 3 min chart that made my mind up that a pullback is a better than 50/50 outcome intraday, this could make for an excellent new position in MCP if it comes.

The 10 min chart shows the start of accumulation, you might remember what I said yesterday about price targets vs. where 3C accumulation started. 

MCP has already surpassed the point in which accumulation on the 10 min chart started, it typically moves well past that point eventually.

With the 15 min chart this strong, I have little doubt MCP will see further upside, I just prefer to rise it out in a non-leveraged position unless we get a pullback that discounts calls and 3C accumulation on the pullback, then I'd enter a new call position.

GLD, SLV and GDX / NUGT

I think by now with gold especially and silver to a lesser degree, dumping right as China opens clearly shows Chinese banks are selling assets to make up for the severe shortage in liquidity that the Chinese financial system has been experiencing this week like the US did in 2008 and a big part of that is because of the same US problem then..., Counter-party Risk.

However there seems to be asset managers who are and have been interested in accumulating the PMs, it's just every once in a while a Fundamental event that's not on the map pops up, that would be the severe Chinese Financial system's Frozen liquidity situation that has seen banks suspend all loans this week.

In any case, whether the PMs were getting ready to pop late yesterday or as I suspect may be the case (or likely both), the F_E_D's new story-line caused it, they have started to pop.

I'm holding positions open in PMs and GDX, but I probably wouldn't enter a new leveraged position at this point until there's a pullback that can be verified as seeing accumulation. Again Williams could easily cause that. Smaller pullbacks, if you are so inclined to enter the trade, seem a bit safer with either non-leveraged or 2-3x leveraged ETFs rather than options, for options, I'd prefer to do what I said above.

Here are the charts...

As of RIGHT NOW, a pullback of any size doesn't seem likely as we have some 1 min negatives, but we are missing the 2 min that gives a pullback a very high probability intraday, that could change of course at any moment, but the consolidation right now I think is just that, a consolidation, not likely a pullback unless the 2 min charts go negative.

IF the market makes a stronger move to the upside, that could do it, but ES is moving up and so far it hasn't changed the 2 min charts at all.

GLD 3 min looks like there may have been some movement late yesterday toward higher prices in GLD, but looking at 1 min charts, it looks as if the F_E_D announcement was the real cause, there was an initial short consolidation that was strongly accumulated and then the parabolic-like move straight up right after.

 The 5 min chart looks more like either they were preparing for a move higher or at least as of yesterday afternoon an accumulation phase was under way that morphed in to a move higher after the F_E_D double whammy this morning, the timing is near perfect.

I'll be holding positions for now for the following reason/s

 The gold futures 15 and 30 min charts showing the same accumulation as GLD (same timeframe) and it hasn't suffered at all, despite Chinese banks selling gold (just look at gold right as China opens)  to create some liquidity.

SLV 2 min has a similar question as GLD, but again

The 30 min chart is less ambiguous, like gold, it's very strong over the entire period. In fact I think if I had to chose again, knowing what I know now about Chinese liquidity, I'd chose silver over gold, but as far as metals being sold, even copper is being sold on China's open, gold is just a stronger asset to increase liquidity fast before the banks have to shutter their windows.
 

 Silver 3o and 60 min 3C futures are very strong, there's been no damage to them.

 As for miners, just as we saw a divergence between GG and GLD as well as SLW and SLV, GDX has been acting better recently (yesterday is the specific period I was talking about for Gold, Silver and Miners).

The 10 min GDX divergence is strong with no damage so I think we have a bigger move (much bigger) in store, I do think it will be choppy depending on how the equity market moves and of course the situation in China, but there's a counter (bullish) situation in India as well so it's hard to try to balance the scales for forecasting purposes between the market, a total unknown such as China's financial liquidity lock up- maybe it lasts a week, maybe like the US it just gets worse until the PBoC has to step in, but they are no where near as happy to do so as the F_E_D was in 2008/2009.

GDX 15 min also shows more upside, I think SLV/silver still has the edge.

NUGT 3x long Gold Miners ETF shows an intraday  1 min negative , if anything, this is the closest to an actual pullback rather than consolidation, and it's on a pullback with verified accumulation I'd consider opening a new NUGT long or adding to an existing one.

 NUGT 30 min seems to clearly have quite a bit of upside ahead of it.

This is the 3 min chart, it is perfectly in line so any intraday pullback has a very high probability of seeing accumulation in to the PB, making it a decent add to or new position.