Thursday, March 19, 2015

Daily Wrap

Yesterday's knee-jerk move saw very little to no actual confirmation or follow through today with the averages split as they have been to either a very wide extent or a smaller extent over the last wee, but in either case, this isn't sector rotation which is bullish, the divergences in the averages are a problem that they should not see in a healthy move.

Today we saw half the averages green led by the Russell 2000 at a paltry gain of +0.22% and lagged with a more substantial loss of -0.62% in the Dow which now has the advantage or disadvantage of AAPL's weight as the NASDAQ has had all of these years, it just didn't work out well today, perhaps because of Tag and Google's foray in to the smart watch arena giving the Apple watch a run for its money at $10,000 on the high end.

The Dow lost the psychologically important $18k level and ended up giving back half of its gains to end at 17962. The NASDAQ as hard as it tried, made it above $5k today, but closed under at 4992, another psychological defeat.

The SPX also gave back about half of its gains.

All in all the averages today were split as you can see with the SPX and Dow closing in the red, Transports right at ZERO, the NDX at +0.10% and the R2K at +.22%. I have to say, all things considered, this isn't too far off last night's expectations based on the Dominant Price/Volume Relationship, the only average that didn't close as would be expected is the NDX and it was only up +0.10% ( as well as the overbought condition in the S&P sectors and Morningstar groups.

As pointed out earlier, all in all today felt like either an op-ex pin or a reversal process of a parabolic move as it would be within the reasonable bounds of symmetry or perhaps both, but the one thing there wasn't was follow through and that's not surprising for a knee jerk reaction.

USO which had rallied above the area we expected it to spend some time building a larger base yesterday, gave that back today and is back where we expect.
 USO 60 min chart and the first half of a "W" base with a descending (looking) triangle which broke lower as we expected and moved to the low end of the range at this year's lows as we expected to start to put together the second half of a larger base that can support a primary trend upside reversal.

This shows USO's pop yesterday with a negative divergence in to the close and price making good on that today and it looks like a little more to go on the downside as of the closing signal.

UGLD long (Gold) was held and at a +5% gain since opening the position Wednesday, Trade Idea- UGLD (3x long Gold/GLD).

While I may close it, broadly I like Gold here, I'm just not sure if the base area is finished after the pullback we called, but for today, we had solid confirmation so I left it in place.
 Intraday confirmation in GLD as we bought this just minutes before it took off to the upside yesterday.

However on the longer 60 min chart, the pullback we expected from a negative divegrence looks to be done, I'm just not sure the base is complete, but until UGLD gives me a good reason not to hold it, I see no reason not to keep it open.

treasury yields retraced about half of yesterday's decline, this was mildly supportive of the market broadly speaking, but I have to wonder if this isn't more options expiration MAX Pain pin related as the pin is usually close to Thursday's close and typically remains in force until about 2 p.m. at which time the market can do whatever it likes, but the underlying 3C signals are some of the best data of the week allowing us to forecast the "Week Ahead".

Financials underperformed again. You may recall in last night's, Daily Wrap...F_E_D Fear I posted a chart of the S&P Sectors' relative performance after the 2 p.m. F_O_M_C, Financials lagged badly and once again today they were a laggard, giving back all gains from yesterday.

The $USD round-tripped as the EURO gave back its gains. However the changed in the longer term $USD chart which I have been following such as Tuesday's post, Leading Indicators and Perhaps a Surprising Change in Dollar Direction , could be indicative of a lot of things, the slowing US economy could be one. The US allies signing up to be part of the new Chinese development bank to rival the U.S. based World Bank and as such $USD dominance and/or it could have something to do with the carry trade unwind which I have expected to be an event as the market makes good on real moves to the downside. For at least 2 years I've maintained my belief the Yen would rally and $USD likely sell off as the bear market became real. Last night I showed you the longer term Yen positive divegrence and the longer term $USD negative divegrence suggestive of perhaps the carry trade unwind which will have a dramatic effect on stocks financed by the trade.

Although the $USD retraced today, I don't suspect it will hold. Here's the $USDX intraday...

 The $USDX 1 min negative suggesting it moves down while both the Euro and Yen look like they'll move up near term.

5 min $USDX negative with the Euro and Yen both positive on the same timeframe.

However I think this is less about the Euro / Yen near term any way, you did see last night's 4 hour chart of the Yen with support and a huge positive divergence which is why I think the carry unwind may be on, but as I was saying out at 15 min the $USDX is still negative calling for downside while the Euro/Yen are more in line here.

In other words, this is about the $USD right now and the Carry cross unwind is another subject that's of course related, for more on the longer term, check...Leading Indicators and Perhaps a Surprising Change in Dollar Direction or last night's Daily Wrap.

Yesterday quite a few Leading Indicators were indicating that the move up yesterday was as we suspected, was a knee jerk move.

As you know I always warn, "Beware the F_E_D knee jerk reaction. It's almost always wrong and almost always retraced or worse in either direction".

I warned at least a half dozen times  and off the top of my head for sure in Tuesday's Daily Wrap- Just Couldn't Pull the Rabbit Out of the Hat, as well as Monday's Leading Indicators and Perspective.

This is just something seen so often and not just since Bernanke, but for well over a decade, that it has just become boilerplate with anything F_E_D related (and the move can go in either direction). You may recall the September 2012 introduction of QE3, every bone in my body said, cover any and all shorts, but every chart said the exact opposite. After the initial knee jerk reaction that lasted until a very enlightening question to Bernanke that gave me my first clue the F_E_D was already starting to consider its exit, at 2:24 p.m. on September 19th 2012, the intraday high for the day, the market moved lower from there by some 8% with most shorts doubling or tripling that loss over the next 2 months.

The 2:24 p.m. September 19th intraday highs weren't seen again until mid January 2013.

In any case, taking a look at Leading Indicators today should give us some additional color on some negative slides from yesterday and in general.

 Our custom SPX:RUT ratio was leading the market as we've seen before in to the "W" base area, but since it has NOT confirmed yesterday or anything near the area, thus based on the reading, I wouldn't expect much and likely a turn to the downside.

I highlighted the 10th as that was the day we saw something coming although most of it was gut feel until the charts started coming in the next day.
 As for Pro Sentiment, it hardly bought the move bs the SPX at all, in fact today it continued its stage 4 decline, just off a new lower low.

The Broader overall view looks something like this, that's a lot of catching down when we get to a primary downtrend.

As for the VIX short term futures (VXX), as you know I'm waiting there to replace a UVXY position closed last week at a +10% gain, but on the day (VXX price inverted) we saw better relative performance from VXX after 1 p.m.

 This is the head fake move we had expected or wondered about in VXX, I'm just waiting on strong leading positive divergences as the reversal area would be sturdier widened out just a bit more maybe a day.

 As mentioned earlier, this is generally what I'm expecting, a full "W" base, a break below intraday support and likely an entry right there.

As for Yields, this is the broader picture of the 30 year.
 At the Jan 29-Feb 2nd February cycle stage 1 base, 30 year yields are moving up in support of stage 2 mark -up of the cycle, but go negative at #3 at stage 3 top of the cycle, At #5 yields in red jump on the strong Non-Farm payrolls data on March 6th and finally revert back to the mean at #6, since they have negatively diverged and are in stage 4 as yields act like a magnet for equities so the SOPX in green should head down to yields' lower reality at #7

 Since the NFP data and the pop in yields, it has been a solid downtrend, even after the reversion to the SPX (green box).

 And on an intraday basis since reversion to the mean on the NFP data, look at that divergence, this is why we use yields as a leading indicator, they should tractor beam prices down to revert to yields reality (30 y).

This is the same for the 10 year which closed at 1.977 today, still under 2%.

Intraday 10 year yields were helpful in short term intraday support of the market as you see above on a 1 min basis, but you can see the bigger picture above, trouble lies ahead for the market.

 Funny how our leading indicator, Yields looks so similar to our Leading Indicator High Yield Corporate Credit which was in line to the left with the stage 4 decline, then was positive briefly while the SPX formed a small "W" base for a bouncer as we expected , but even yesterday HY credit was not as enthusiastic and still diverged negatively and today even worse.

 Since the Feb. cycle's stage 3 top, HYG has led the market lower in to stage 4 decline and at this Counter Trend Bounce, it's leading the market lower again as you see the big picture.

This is the primary trend in HYG vs the SPX which has a LOT of catching down to do. Note the lower highs and lower lows in HYG (blue) vs the SPX. "Credit leads, stocks follow" and right now Credit is in a primary downtrend.

 HYG intraday, the orange area is where it closed yesterday so it was in the red all day and diverging lower intraday as well.

High Yield credit which is not manipulated like HYG is for small moves here and there is clearly leading lower as well.

The numbers are the 4 stages of a cycle for the Feb, cycle and other than the market counter trend bounce which is totally normal, HY Credit is leading and has never left stage 4 decline. Again, the SPX has some catching down to do with the rest of the market.

 HY Credit vs SPX and a clear stage 4 decline, no ambiguity.

 As for commodities which have recently been leading again (brown) vs the SPX, you can see where they led positive in white and where they led negative in red and how badly.

Despite the moves in gold and oil yesterday sending commods higher, that was really not a game changed in any way.

Commodities were decidedly less enthusiastic about this knee jerk as you can see and barely moved out of their stage 4 decline.

On a long term basis and this is probably not a great leading indication of anything other than the global economy, you can see, Houston we have a problem!

As for internals, today once again the SPX (298 stocks), the Dow (24 stocks) and the NDX 100 (64 stocks) all had a Dominant Price/Volume Relationship and just like yesterday, the Russell 2000 was the only one that didn't with the component stocks evenly split between the 4 possible relations. As for the others, the Dominant Price/Volume Relationship (unlike yesterday's 1-day overbought) was Close Down/Volume Down) which I call, "carry on doing what you were doing" as it is the least influential 1-day bias relationship with no real bias, however it is the dominant theme during a full fledged bear market.

I might however chose to interpret it a bit differently given these candlestick closes:
 Remember the Dominant Price/Volume Relationship has nothing to do with how the Index and volume closed, it has to do with how the component stocks in the index and their respective volume closed/ So while I normally wouldn't assign much value to this particular relationship, with the SPX/SPY having an inside day or Harami reversal which is at best an indecision pair of candles and at worst a reversal set up, the indecisive volume fits the candlestick pattern, although I like to see heavy volume on reversal candles, on pair patterns like this, yesterday's heavy volume and today's indecision is just what I'd look for.

 The NASDAQ 100 closed the same way
 The DIA joined in as well

As did Transports (Dow -20) and the COMPOSITE wasn't far off

The S&P sectors had a mirror reversal of yesterday with only 1 of 9 closing green today which was Healthcare as bios are still tearing it up with a +0.58% gain in HC.

The laggard was Materials at -1.72%

Among the 238 Morningstar groups that closed super bullish yesterday, only 62 of 238 closed green today, yesterday I believe it was around 212 of 238.

I'm going to give Breadth indicators a night off and check them tomorrow, let them get some movement in as I mentioned yesterday, most were remarkably flat all things considered.

Finally you got a good look at Futures and the averages before the close in,  Broad Market Update.

I'm pretty sure you can put the pieces of the picture together, things obviously haven't looked good since I mentioned the divergence in NQ/NASDAQ futures last night that just got worse after midnight until it pulled futures lower overnight.

Tonight they are broadly in line. Don't forget what my expectations are with the IWM/Russell 2000 intraday triangle, that looks like the trade set up and probably where most positions will look good like VXY, SRTY, , puts and many others. I have a feeling that's going to be what we look for and futures in line tonight just makes that closer to a reality although the op-ex pin could be responsible for that as well.

Just be patient, we'll have some great trades if we just let them come to us and tell us when they are ready.
As of my earlier posts today, this is EXACTLY what I was looking for given technical traders are so predictable so watch for the bite (volume) and I'll watch for the divergences on that bite, that should be our timing indication.

Have a great night!



VXX / UVXY Trade Set-UpUpdate

As you know I closed the UVXY position for a 10% gain last Friday, Taking UVXY (2x long VXX short Term VIX Futures) off the table for now . I can't recall if it was a LEading Indicators update or another post, but since the VXX (Short Term VIX Futures) chart was so flat, beyond the normal correlation, I wondered if it would see a head fake move; in this case a stop run in which shares can be accumulated on the cheap and in size without anyone even giving it a second thought. Bo one ever wonders who's on the other side of a stop run and why, but it's the easiest, fastest way for smart money to accumulate at a discount in size without raising warning alerts.

Considering my opinion on a possible IWM/TF short term intraday move and the outcome, I think the charts below are very interesting, although they are still telling me to be patient before adding VXX or the 2x leveraged long UVXY long back in the line up. Consider the IWM triangle and most probable head fake based on technical trader's' expectations.

In that scenario, the following VXX charts make a lot of sense as does the trade set up and timing trigger.
 VXX with a notable change in ROC (price) and thus character. Also the flat range that was getting so obvious, I recently wondered if it wasn't too obvious with stops and orders lined up just below support.

 Well judging by the volume at the break of support yesterday, I'd say the middle men were going to be gunning for that area any way as it's a bunch of shares on the cheap with no Iceberg hunting algos on their tails. Based on the IWM 1 min chart and TF shown in the last post (the sym. triangle and what I thought would be most likely to happen), then this "W" base that VXX is working on,  which it needs to work on,  would likely see one more stop run under the "W" base area's support on a smaller move, this would almost certainly be the long entry for VXX/UVXY. I'll be setting price alerts. The two yellow arrows would be the probable outcome I'd be looking for and trade set up, LET THE TRADE COME TO YOU ON YOUR TERMS.

My custom DeMArk inspired Buy/Sell signals show a recent buy, the last two have been accurate as well, although these don't tell you anything about how high the target is, just that a buy signal is in effect and this indicator seems to work best on VIX and VIX derivative ETFs.

Broad Market Update

Last Tuesday March 10th, knowing a bounce was coming, we closed out AAPL puts and QQQ March 20th puts as even lateral chop after that point would just eat away at the value through time decay of the options. We got out , AAPL Update and AAPL/QQQ P/L with an AAPL +22% gain and a QQQ +48% gain and didn't take any loss over time decay,  but even back then the plan was to re-establish those positions as well as the UVXY long closed last Friday, Taking UVXY (2x long VXX short Term VIX Futures) off the table for now for about a +10% gain for a week or so of holding after it became apparent that the VXX which had been in a flat base-like area would likely decline and even put in a possible head fake move which I'd like to use to re-eneter the position. I'm watching VXX/UVXY right now for the confirming signal of a head fake move, so far I suspect it is in the middle of creating a reversal process rather than the weak reversal events ( a "W" or large "U" shaped base is a process vs a "V" shaped reversal is an event and you can't build a strong foundation of such a flimsy base). I haven't forgotten UVXY, just waiting for the timing probabilities to jump off the chart.

The point is, from the Jan 29th-Feb. 2nd stage 1 base starting the February cycle, we had moved to stage 3 top and stage 4 decline with the SPX retracing all of the head fake gains, this move since we first identified its probabilities last Tuesday March 10th has been as I have maintained from the start, a normal counter trend bounce.

Yesterday morning in the A.M. Update I addressed the original positive / bounce divergences that were first becoming clear Tuesday March 10th, in saying...

"There still seems to be gas in the tank for QQQ and SPY, not so much for the IWM and that may be why we saw some panic selling as expected yesterday, kind of a last minute emergency fuel dump, but as I said, there's still some gas in the tank and I expect we will still see volatility both ways right through the rest of the day and probably week."

Last night in several posts including the Daily Wrap, I suspected that even though we only had about 2 hours of cash market data, the futures, particularly NASDAQ 100 futures were pointing to that gas in the tank being burnt through.

Here's where we stand with the divergences in the averages (the very short term 1 min charts may look a bit different by the time I get all of these posted, but the general idea still holds).

I'd normally work from the fastest intraday charts as they are the most sensitive to any new changes like any new signals after yesterday's F_E_D inspired knee-jerk reaction, which I always warn about in bold letters at least a day in advance. However in this case I'm starting with a longer timeframe which are stronger underlying money flow signals, however not as sensitive to details and they don't move as fast, but I want to give you your bearings so when we look at the shorter term intraday charts, you'll have an idea of where we are in the puzzle.

First a daily chart of events on the SPX to get your bearings...
Daily SPX 500 chart. 1)= The top of the Broadening Top formation (resistance trendline). 2)=The month long 2015 range with near perfect support and resistance, a VERY obvious range in the most watched average which means technical traders WILL chase a breakout of resistance allowing smart money to sell in to the move. 3)=You rarely see them unless you look, but this is a small head fake move that would have pulled in initial shorts as true and tested support broke, the move back in to the range is where most shorts would have placed their stops which starts the move with a short squeeze and powers upside momentum until the break out buyers show up which happened at 4) which is the actual move above the range that we predicted back then not only NEEDED to happen, but would happen and this is before we even had evidence to support the concept. At this point, Technical traders' predictability set them up to hold the bag as the stage 3 top of the cycle formed at #5) and turned down after some small head fake (chimney price formations) to enter stage 4 decline for the cycle and completely retrace the head fake move at #6) which became a very obvious area to look for a bounce with 100-day averages either just broken or at support of them. With new shorts entering on the failed move and breakout buying longs having stops hit, it's a perfect place to stage a counter trend bounce which we had also forecasted in advance and I showed the September highs to October lows as an example of what to expect with the first bounce in September being a bit too early and the second being a bit too deep in to stage 4 so I said it would be between the two as you may recall as this was posted at least a half dozen times. Even our date target and price targets were hit EXACTLY and I don't like giving out targets.



This is the QQQ 30 min chart that includes the entire February cycle with concepts that we use regularly pointed out.

We first saw the most recent cycle coming late in January, in fact before we even had any signals as evidence, the fact there was such a well defined range in place meant that this would have to see a head fake move above before there could be any move below to challenge the October lows. This is the range I'm talking about.

 The January 29th - February 2nd strong accumulation formed a "W" base which was stage 1 of the cycle (base/accumulation). At stage 2 we have Mark-Up or "Participation as 3C confirmed the early part of stage 2 and at stage 3 TOP we have typical distribution, although on a 30 min chart this is quite strong which led to stage 4 decline that was under way, but not before a "Chimney" head fake breaking above recent range resistance at the top (yellow arrow). Head fake moves tend to be some of the best price pattern based timing signals we have. They are the most difficult emotionally to enter a trade, but offer the best price, the lowest risk and the highest timing probabilities if you can bring yourself to overcome the fear of shorting in to price gains or buying price declines .

As you'll see when we look closer at the Q's, there was an accumulation phase on this chart at the "CTB" Counter Trend Bounce" which is a perfectly normal occurrence, but the larger picture is the leading negative divegrence on the chart which tells us before the bounce even starts that the highest probability resolution is a failed bounce and that we should be using price strength to sell in to or short in to.

Again, I'm going to start looking at multiple timeframe analysis now that you have your bearings with the longest timeframe charts of the SPY first, then with the other averages I'll probably start with the earlier/faster timeframes so you can see what has transpired since yesterday and the process of migration in which a divergence moves from a fast timeframe to a longer one telling us that the divergence is gaining strength.
 SPY 30 min shows the base on a 30 min chart which will not have accumulation as early as a 5 min chart as it takes a stronger flow of funds that you don't see right off the bat as accumulation starts,  but recall it was March 10th when we first saw the signs that caused us to close AAPL / QQQ time sensitive puts.

You can see the positive divegrence at a "W" like base at the white positive 3C divergence and in to yesterday's move / knee jerk, you can see we  have a clean negative divergence indicating distribution in large size in to this move up and yesterday's knee jerk reaction.

This is a larger view of the same SPY 30 min chart also showing the Jan. 2015 range that was too obvious for the pros not to run it. Right before the move to the upside on Feb 2nd you can see a head fake bear trap at the yellow arrow. At #2 we have the break above the range and the Breakout chasers. At stage 3 of the cycle (TOP/Distribution), you can see a clear and strong 3C negative divergence with price that led to the stage 4 decline and a counter trend bounce only after the entire head fake move was retraced.

 On a SPY 15 min chart looking more at the base, remember the March 10th date, we can see a "W" base (white) on a strong 3C positive divegrence, although strong, not enough gas in the tank for much more than a counter trend bounce which tend to be some of the strongest bounces when they fall within a preceding downtrend as they have to be convincing to get any one to bite.

The current leading negative 3C divegrence making lower lows should be clear.

 On a shorter 10 min chart you can see the distribution at stage 3 (TOP) of the February cycle as it is leading negative, leading to the stage 4 price DECLINE and in to a "W" base and positive divegrence. That too has seen an inline "gas still in the tank" signal turn to a leading negative divergence right at yesterday's knee jerk ramp.

The 5 min chart is more detailed showing the actual "W" base and divergences forming it. Also the leading negative divegrence in to the local area as we did see some distribution earlier in the week and in to yesterday's knee jerk move.

On an intraday 2 min chart note a small positive divegrence just before the F_O_M_C came out and it's small head fake move. This is a fractal concept and is seen on 1 minute charts or 1 month charts.

There's a weaker relative negative divegrence in to the price advance that grows stronger in to a leading negative divegrence in to the highs and since.

The positive divegrence to the right was the one mentioned in the last post and is only important on an intraday basis.

And the SPY 1 min positive divegrence from my last post, as you can see, since I captured and posted it , it has grown a little stronger and moved to the 2 min chart above, although it's still an intraday short term signal that I think has more to do with monthly options expiration than anything (tomorrow) as they'll be looking for the max pain pin which is usually near the Thursday close preceding op-ex.

Now that you probably have your bearings on the charts, where the bases where (you'll note I marked March 10th on same charts as that Tuesday we started closing puts like AAPL and QQQ as we expected a bounce), you'll also see some yellow arrows/areas which I use to denote head fake moves as well as the normal white positive divegrence and red negative divergence with a box usually representing either a price area of the divegrence or a stronger leading divegrence.

Since I have so many charts using multiple asset confirmation and so many timeframes using multiple timeframe analysis, I'll leave the commentary to a minimum. See below for the same update in Index futures, I have picked a divergence from each relevant timeframe in one of the major Index futures to save space so there's 1 chart for every timeframe rather than 3.

 QQQ 1 min intraday showing the same positive as the SPY as this is an earlier chart as well (as I warned at the start, it takes too long to load and post all of these to keep 1 min charts as current as they can be).


 Since yesterday's move the 2 min chart is in leading negative position, this is the time we needed beyond the 2 hours since the F_O_M_C yesterday.

 QQQ 10 min at the February cycle and the counter trend  bounce.

A closer view of the same 10 min QQQ chart above showing the "W" base, head fake move just before the launch/bounce and leading negative divergence.

 The stronger QQQ 15 min in to the counter trend bounce area, note the size and strength of the current leading negative divegrence.

QQQ 30 min since the start of the February cycle (jan. 29-Feb 2nd). This is to put the overall leading negative divegrence in to perspective as it's much worse than it appears above this chart.

 QQQ 30 min at stage 3 top of the Feb. cycle. Note the positive divegrence at the bounce base isn't as big, this is because the size of the accumulation wasn't enough to move the chart significantly, however the distribution is larger suggesting there were more short selling than just selling in which we'd expect the positive and negative to be about the same size.

 IWM 2 min. Although this is a HUGE leading negative trend in 3C, I wanted to point it out by asking you to look at 3C's location at point "A" and price's location at point "A", then look at 3C and price's location at point "B". If there were even simple confirmation of the move saying it had basic support, this chart would have moved with price as it does to the left on confirmation. This should tell you something about why this bounce was where it was when it was and what it was used for. Remember, Technical traders are very predictable and that makes Wall Street's actions to manipulate them predictable which you can use to your advantage, although as notes, it's not always the easiest emotional area to take tactical action on a position.

 IWM 5 min since the knee jerk higher yesterday. The yellow arrows in this instance are just pointing out a triangle. Considering Technical traders see this as a consolidation/continuation price pattern, what do you think the most probable course of price is?

I say a head fake (failed ) breakout to the upside first, pulling in new longs before a drop below the apex of the triangle locking longs in a bull trap.

Now you see why I'm waiting on entering some additional positions.

IWM 10 min chart which had a very different looking bounce/accumulation area, it also had very different relative performance both weaker and stronger and yesterday a VERY different Dominant Price/Volume Relationship.

There's something very interesting going on in the IWWM and I don't see it as a positive event despite current price.

I'll be looking for the IWM put entry and maybe SRTY long.

IWM 15 min since the 10th of March.

As for the Index Futures, we've already seen a lot of updates, but here are some important ones.

(ES=SPX futures / NQ=NASDAQ 100 futures / TF= Russell 2000 Futures)

 TF 1 min intraday. Remember what I just said about the intraday triangle and the most probable outcome, the TF chart is already set up for such an outcome.

NQ 5 min

ES 7 min

TF 10 min, remember most of its strength was last week, the SPY and QQQ gained extra strength this week as they rotated in Monday vs Friday's relative performance among the averages.

NQ 15 and this is about as far as we went as far as gas in the tank.

ES 30 min

ES 60 min

NQ 4 hour all the way back to the October low where we forecast a FACE RIPPING RALLY, while investor sentiment indicators were at all time bearish lows.

ES 1-day

I'll try to get a LEading Indicators update out as well.