A LOT TO CHOOSE FROM

I know tonight's list is a lot of stocks and as of yet there are no stops, initially you can probably use about a 10%-15% stop to figure your position sizing, hopefully before market open I'll have the stops and notes complete.

Pretty much any of these trades can be taken at market open at market price. I especially like the few long positions near the bottom. I would consider these "Cats and Dogs-Rally" type stocks; as such I wouldn't put a lot of money into them. However, they look a lot like the setups that were generating the double digit daily returns in January. For now, I'd keep them as speculative positions and don't swing for the fences, keep the risk low and the stops a little wide on them-give them a chance to work.

The short positions, for the most part are all in high probability/low risk areas. While I would keep the stops a little tighter, these are the type of shorts we may have to take several swings at before we hit the trend so we want to keep the losses to about 1% of position or portfolio depending on how you are applying your risk model. If you need help figuring it out with position sizing and stops, find the trades you like and email me, I'll help you with position sizing.

There are so many because the recent rally has put many in a great area to short them. You needn't trade them all, but rather make sure you are not chosing trades that are highly correlated to positions you may already have. The recent ideas (within the last week) are also still in play.

Emil me with any questions. Also broadly speaking and you'll see it in the recent trade ideas-especially the intraday post last week, we are short Silver -SLV (or buy ZSL-2x leveraged Ultrashort) and long gold.

Check out www.Trade-Guild.net  for today's market analysis for this week.

GOOG looking like a good short

One of my new Custom indicators measuring price/volume relationships showing weakness in GOOG

A daily chart of 3C and an extended long range 3C in blue-both showing negative divergences in GOOG or distribution.

Despite any bounce attempt, this looks like a decent short today.

This am's trading action

This morning's trading range as of 10:02, a break above or below it usually determines which way the market will close for the day.

5-min 3C showing selling into yesterday afternoon's Buy Trade Program

Another 5-min 3C showing the same with a negative leading divergence this morning.

Here's  1-min chart suggesting that price will rally from support or at least try at least once more

*Update
The Trades I'm especially liking-whether you got in already or are looking to include:


CYMI
KLAC
UGP
GOOG
GS
DGP

All from last night's list

TRADES FOR THE 26TH ARE UP

There are longs and shorts in there, some interesting plays as well considering the market's Buy program that hit around 1:45-I think it was filling a gap, but tomorrow we'll know more. In any case, it gives us better short positioning.

Adding a Few Positions Intraday

Here are a few positions that will be on tonight's list, but you may want to take a look at them now:




-JPM (S) and GS (S) are both in good position for a new short or an add-to
-PWRD is a short featured here, it is a good short or add-to now
-EDZ (L) looks good and it's pulling back intraday-I'd establish a small position for now and add later

-TWM (L) an UltraShort on the Russell 2000, make sure you are not too correlated with the market in other positions or you'll have to reduce this one. This is your basic market short.

-Possibly a little DGP (GOLD double long ETN) Keep this position small as it is still "iffy", but it has broken and held a major downtrend line and is up today.

-GOOG (S)

-(S) SLV or (L) ZSL I believe silver has downside and it is not as correlated to gold s people think.
-AAPL (S) is acting perfectly in a Broadening top scenario
-UGP (S) this is another I'd establish a small position in for the moment
-KLAC (S) KLAC has fallen out of a flag and is a long term short
-CRM (S) there's a high probability this is coming off the right shoulder of a H&S top, this is a high probability/low risk short.
-FLEX (S) appears to be coming down out of a large triangle top.
-CYMI (S)-especially if it appears it will close below $31.37-this is a large double top.

New Trades are up-All are for the open at marlet

New Trades are up-anything from the list-the new list is in play.

Boring

For awhile today it looked as if we might see a bearish engulfing pattern-the Q's did, but the rest of the market didn't and XLF was actually up today. Everything was missing any sense of direction. It may be like a doji day (which it wasn't) in which upside momentum waned and perhaps tomorrow we'll see something definitive, but as of now, still sitting on our hands and waiting for this market to tell us when o jump back in -either one gun or both barrels blazing.

If you are a swing or day trader let me know and I'll come up with some trades for you, but if you are following our current model-Trend, then just sit tight.\\
a few trades of recent that I still like-PWRD (S), AMZN (S), MOT (S), the TASR long has performed well-18% in 3 days, MSO (L) still looks ok, CRR (S) is performing, INAP was up as much as 10% in  days.

So for now, again, we'll sit this out another day, but at least we are moving in the right direction.

Patience is a Virtue

Right now we are sitting on our hands until the effects of the Fed decision are fully realized. In the past, the original reaction (this time was a rally) is almost always the wrong reaction and the markets reverse within days. It's my opinion that the Fed is making $ for the banks and such more expensive for a single reason and moving the discount rate terms from 30 days back to overnight confirms my suspicions which have been with me for awhile as Fed and Treasury statements in the near past have all seem to be aimed at the banks, "Close your Carry Trade Positions"-I see this move as a shot across the bow, thus perhaps that's why we saw such a wild early market decline today.

We will see. Thursday/Friday formed a small Harami reversal and today-thus far it looked like we were not only getting confirmation but a bearish engulfing pattern as well.

If you are not afraid of risk then I think you can short in these areas, we prefer to sit on our hands for a day and wait confirmation-we won't be missing that much of the move. It will also allow me time to see who is going to get hit the hardest (read as -where has most of the Carry Trade money gone?-gold, semi's, emerging markets?). So that's the analysis for now, it may be updated later today.

No post last night

I had a lot going on last night and didn't get to post, but basically we have been in a holding pattern because there's no confirmation on the short side and not close to enough evidence or market strength to go out on the long limb. The Fed's announcement caught many if not everyone off guard, except a select few I think got wind of it around 2:15 pm-look at the Q's or any market average at that time and watch the behavior. In any case, this will likely be a day were you might want to take a look t the shorts on the list, tonight I will see were the high probability low trades ended up and post them, but others mentioned recently can probably be initiated.  I might wait until a morning trading range forms and breaks to the downside or the 2:15 level from yesterday is taken out or the open from yesterday is taken out. Just some sort of confirmation and maybe a little later in the am after the retail trades are out of the cards.

New Trades for tomorrow are up-

I think this market is headed down, but it is acting very erractically lately, probably the currency tug of
war.


There are several longs in there that look exceptional-the shorts from the list previous are still in play and many faired ok today even in an up market.


I'll be putting up a bunch of charts of the trades -I have a little extra time, this way you can see what I'm
looking at.

AMZN's confirmed H&S top

3C distribution into the top as you'd expect to see.

The bearflag in CRR

The 2-day chart makes it easier to see

The huge rounding bottom in MSO -it's like a cup and handle except for where it falls, everything else is pretty much there and now it's broken out!

Here's the handle breakout.

The daily 3C chart which calls accumulation in the "U" and even points out accumulation right before the breakout.

Finally TASR in my trend/stop channel which held the entire consolidation.

Feeling more confident now

Take a look at this post from Trade Guild-I feel a lot better about ll the trades from yesterday (at a significant discount-forget the stops, we'll reset them) except the first two. All the UltraShort and the trades I added intraday today are all back in serious play, this is the clear signal I've been looking for:

http://www.trade-guild.net/2010/02/mighty-dollar-might-and-market.html

A Nice Disorderly Market

Well we get paid to take chances, but the difference between what we do and gambling is to only take those chances when the odds are in our favor. If you bought any on the Ultrashorts I mentioned last night, I think in time, you will find that you got in at an excellent price.

The market did not react the way I hoped it would, but that's not unusual-I can't expect a perfectly clean down trend that is textbook. However, it's important you know more about the situation so go to Trade-Guild.net and READ THIS POST.

To those who renewed your subscriptions recently-Thank you very much.

For right now, we are going to sit tight and see what this market does tomorrow as the trend is in question and we want to always be on the side of the trend. The shorts I posted intraday today I do believe were actionable today and if you got in and need a second opinion, let me know. Our Gold Short from last week broke that big bear flag and made a nice gain today. There were several others as well-SSN long was up again.

Email me with questions.

AMZN

This is also looking like a good short here with a fairly tight stop at $121.19-feel free to adjust, but it's not performing with the rest of the NAZ100 plus it has a top pattern and a bear-flag like formation.

MOT

Is looking good here as well for a short, whether an add-too or opening a new position, the stop would be in the area of $7.77

DTO

DTO gapped below our stop, but I will say at these levels it does makes sense to try a quick long right here and now and maybe have a stop under whatever today's lows will be-ON THE CLOSE ONLY (for the stop)

New Trades are up-

Make sure to check the last sheet, for about the last week, there are still excellent shorts there.

I've added some Ultra and 3X ETFs, I think everything looks good here and now on all of them-they are all longs and we buy at market on the open and use strict risk management/position sizing-Read the 2% rule.

Charts:

The S&P-500 is still a long way off from doing any technically significant damage-it would have to break above the red trend line and I don't think so.

Same with the Dow 30

However, the Q's are very close to changing their sub-intermediate trend, this week will be interesting. My feelings are the probabilities are they will run the stops intraday and close below on weakness.

The 5 minute 3C has done a good job tracking the turns in the Q's and it's not looking good right now for the bulls.

Here a longer 10 min 3C on the sPY shows a little of the same, but more neutral-I think because it was a long weekend and the Greek situation (see Trade-Guild.net) could have gone either way.

And here's a 10 min on the Q's and it is ambiguous at best-it seems to be leaning toward confirmation with recent weakness. The longer term 3C charts are all over the place, this is why I think it was the Greek debacle over the weekend.

Trades For Feb. 16

These are the most current trades

Okay, I'm in the middle of running scans and keep coming up with the same cast of characters. There are a few interesting developments I'll go over in the next post and you'll have your ideas for tomorrow and this week. Below I took this from one of the classes I teach, it's a bit advanced for the typical person who is only vaguely familiar with T.A. but those of you who read charts and can spot confirmation and divergences both negative and positive, should appreciate this post. I had to paste PDF pages so that's why it's a bit messy. You can use whatever your fvorite indicator is, I used my 3C (usually yellow) because it simply is easy to use in spotting divergences-that's all-plus I think it's awesome!

The point is, I used this method to nail an entry on GS down to the day and minute more or less with a lot of confirmation. So check it out, if you have questions, let me know Brandt@Trade-Guild.net

More coming tonight.

Aligning Time Frames

Once you have established the direction of your trades, have identified the main driver of any one position-the market's trend, then you probably want to look for the ideal time to enter. While this can be done with daily charts, depending on your style, time and resources, it can be further narrowed down. For example, “I know the stock I want to short, I know the market is in a bounce which is good because it gives me better positioning with less risk, but how do I determine when to initiate my short?”

Aligning Timeframes

There are entire books on this subject so I can not cover it extensively in our class, but the premise is, the daily chart is favorable for your short, you want the hourly and maybe all the way to the 1-minute chat to be favorable as well. How you determine favorability will be up to you. Here's an example of How I use my 3C Custom indicator to “Align Timeframes”

In this daily chart of GS I can see clearly that my indicator is registering a negative divergence around August, but this only tells me there is “Distribution”-it does not tell me when they will have depleted their inventory through distribution and when prices will sink. I have also established a trendline for the top and as it develops I can see it is a H&S top. I would like to be short the stock once price breaks the neckline and then a rally back near the neckline for my entry.

The next daily chart of GS  (previous) shows the break of the neckline and the subsequent rally to resistance, this is an ideal place for me to short, having a confirmed top and a rally which presents low risk, but how do I know which day is the best day to enter, “when will this bounce be over and price will start to move down?” Point “A” (2/3/2010)  looks ideal on the chart-it's a reversal signal and at resistance.

The next chart (above) is still GS, but a 30-min chart focused on 2/3/10 and as you can see price tests resistance (the red trendline) you can see at point “A” another negative divergence indicating a lot of sellers stepped in at that level. This helps me align my timeframes and gives me a higher probability of having reached an excellent entry point.

The final chart of GS (previous) shows my indicator focussed on 2/3/10-each bar represents 5 minute5! You can further see here that the ideal time to short GS was on 2/3/10 at approximately 3 p.m. when I saw another negative divergence in my 3C indicator at point “A”. I have now aligned my daily, 30-minute and even 5-minute charts all to give me the best possible known entry (known because anything after 2/3/10 we have the benefit of already knowing what happened in looking back.)

Further confirmation shows the QQQQ's daily chart at point “A” (2/3/10) at resistance.

An hourly chart of the QQQQ (previous) representing the market, shows another negative divergence at 2/3/10 point “A”

Finally a 1-minute chart of the QQQQ shows negative divergences at 3 p.m. and a worse one at the retest of the 3 p.m. highs near 3:45 p.m. Now I've not only received multiple timeframe confirmations on GS, but the broader market as well-I found an excellent entry point by aligning and confirming.

Summary

As you know, Technical Analysis is about putting the probabilities on your side. I Found a very reliable Head and Shoulders pattern in GS-a financial company. I know financials did not perform well toward the end of the rally for several months. I say daily distribution using my indicator showing negative divergences. Not knowing how long the stock would be under distribution before a move lower, I waited for confirmation in the break of the neckline of the Head and Shoulders top and then waited for a high probability low risk rally to resistance. I used an hourly chart of my indicator to verify there was true selling at the resistance point and further narrowed it down to almost exactly 3 p.m. on February 3rd, 2010. To add even more confirmation, I used the exact same process using the QQQQ as a proxy for the overall market as the market's moves have more gravitational pull on your individual stock then anything else. I saw all the same negative divergences at nearly the exact same time. So I had many probabilities in my favor:

1) A weak industry group

2) A Stock in a highly reliable top formation that confirmed the formation

3) I saw Distribution further confirming the top

4) I waited for a low risk/high probability entry

5) I confirmed distribution at resistance on the day I wanted to short GS in multiple timeframes

6) I further confirmed all the same as above in the QQQQ-or more or less, I saw the market was showing a strong likelihood of a downside reversal.

All in all, you couldn't ask for a better entry!

Shorts Everywhere

Review the lost from the last few days, there are great shorts all over it. Here are some that may or may not be on the list that look good right now-All short-All at the open at market

ADCT looks good here

YZC in good pos. w/ an excellent neg. divergence in 3C
MVC in good pos.
RTP in good pos.
RY
WBK
TSL is about to trigger a short limit order out of the bear flag
CMC-nice  H&S
VALE strong Short
RTP

Intraday Update 2

Looking at 3C, I see nothing that would keep me from shorting in this area, it looks like a reversal for the most part to the down side.

Intraday Update

I continue to believe yesterday's 12:20 high for the QQQQ NASDAQ 100 was the high probably for the rally and we are moving down from here. We are adding positions, SLV short and long DZZ a leveraged short on Gold. There are many others in the watchlist that look great and trades underway that are profitable on the short side and can be added. We used the 30+% move in SSN today to exit that long.

FXP and FAZ are two 3x leveraged short positions (you buy them) that look very good right here. Watch your correlation-China is correlated with the $, commods, gold, silver, etc-and the market in a round about way. And of course the short on financials, you'll want to consider any banking shorts GS, JPM, etc. you may have and almost consider them as one position. That is why I gve you so many shorts last update so you can find groups not closely correlated to your current positions.

Today is the Day?

Maybe? Yesterday many of the averages-most except for the Dj-30 put in short term reversal signals, meaning the bounce may be over. The Dow was stronger because of KO's announcement of earnings. You may want to start building some short positions/adding, but don't get too aggressive until we see that reversal for sure. All the shorts I posted two nights ago for the most part are in even better position to short. If you have questions, email me.

More then Enough

Yesterday I posted more then enough trades to keep you stocked and today most of them are even more attractive-especially on the short side. All prices UNLESS otherwise noted in the notes are buy on the open AT MARKET. All stops are SUGGESTIONS. You can give them more room (I'd advise buying less shares to equalize your risk) or you can tighten them (and afford to buy more shares at similar risk-there's a lot on Trade-Guild.net under Resources and Concepts on proper risk management which is the centerpiece of what we are doing here).

ALL STOPS ARE AT or as close as possible to MARKET CLOSE-otherwise you are justing getting needlessly stopped out of trades during intraday swings. For the most part, the short trades are position trades, meant to be held for weeks-months-Read at TG under Resources and Concepts "How to make more then 100% in a short". Instead of the stocks, you may also want to look at a leveraged ETF in the same industry group and I'm always happy to answer emails as timely as I can.



NOTE, I Have not notified anyone of their subscription running out, but several of you have gone ahead and renewed-Thank you very much -I'm glad you are getting something of value from the site. I will be sending out notices if you are about to renew or are past due and I'll give a day or two grace period. Please feel free to send suggestions of how I can make this site more helpful to you and check back during the day. Today I noted at 12:50 tht 12:20 was what I believed would be the high of the day-that can be useful information and it was dead on for the rest of the day.

Thanks for reading!

Intrday update #2

Based on 3C readings of the Q's I have reason to believe we may have hit an intraday high at 12:20. I see plenty of negative divergences throughout multiple timeframes so we are holding our short positions and using strength to exit longs.

Intraday Update

These trades-most on last night's list, are all looking interesting this am.


BVN
SNWL
SF
WIT
MOT
MNTG
FCX
TUP
OXGN
CRM
IOC
CRNT
NEXM
ATW
CYMI

Bunch of new Trades up

You'll find them under Feb 8th on the spread sheet at the bottom and all are for execution on the open at market except where noted.

The market did not give us the same strong close we saw Friday and made new lows in several averages. It looks like we're back on the way down. Short trades like MOT, JPM, GSS, etc (email me if you need another opinion) can be conservatively added to and all the others are fairly good position to take a full position although you may want to enter partial and add upon follow through or a pullback. There are a few longs as well-mostly speculative.

I know there are a lot of trades, but I listed what looks good right now. The key to choosing may be that you chose a trade that you do not already have correlated exposure to. For the first time there are some gold stocks and more oil industry stocks. So don't be overwhelmed by the list, look for trades that are in groups you are not in yet.

SRS

is an UltraShort on Real Estate (2x inverse) and looks pretty good right in this area. The breakout would occur around $8.50 where I'm sure there are a lot of buy orders lined up. Take a look, I like it here.

XLF (11:30 am) looks like it's hit in intraday double top and should pull back a little from here, it could be a quick day trade on a leveraged financial ETF like FAZ or SKF-or this could be the start of something bigger, but I can't say that yet considering the strength of Friday's pattern.

Check back often today.

Holding Pattern

Ok, again we are in another holding pattern with the G7 meeting basically saying the EU will manage the Greek crisis. Whether the market believes it or not is an unknown and if it matters is an unknown. What is known is we had a strong close/reversal signal Friday suggesting that the market may move up Monday and possibly beyond. The last two lists I put out last week have all the shorts I would consider or consider adding to if we do get such a bounce. As long as it stays under resistance we could see anything from an intraday move to a bear flag, in any case, it should provide good positioning for shorts, specifically the ones I mentioned in the last week.

Do not over commit again until we see what this means but there's no point in listing shorts on a market bounce and longs are countertrend at this point so go with what is there. Check this site tomorrow during market hours as I will update with any shorts should this flop and turn south-MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE SITE AFTER 12pm UNTIL CLOSE or until I post.

Some favorites still include JPM or GS-not both maybe some FAZ, FAS (both long as they are inverse already).  I'll add anything I think shows a good risk/reward ration as of tomorrow when we know a little more. Just hang in there and be patient. If you have longs and the market moves higher, it ay be time to consider taking gains or losses and closing them out. If you need a second opinion on any, let me know by email.

Have a great week!

It Seems Pretty Clear

Market sentiment has shifted, this is no run of the mill pullback and I think we got decent positioning on the timeframe, ma day earlier would have been the best, but I did write this on Feb 3rd at 3:18 pm,

"I'm seeing a lot of activity suggesting we are seeing the top of the bounce or the start of the top. So the shorts I've been talking about, maybe start adding to and getting into those positions but remain conservative until we get confirmation, but we are acting now on the shorts."


So I'm happy all in all with the way the indicators are performing.We even got a nice exit today out of our BOFL position at about 15% and added a bunch to the shorts all this week.


The market closed really bad today, didn't really bust through support but closed at the low of the day with a 10:1 ratio of stocks closing down on rising volume vs.stocks closing up-That's huge and is either going to sink more Friday (I'd say it will) or has quickly hit an oversold condition-The VIX is soaring.


So are there shorts out there still? Yes! If I'm right, then this is just the beggining of a much larger trend down and we'll be tlking about how to make more than 100% on a short. So don't feel like the 5% move down today in many of these has sidelined you, they are still very short-able in the larger context. When I see what looks like a home run I'll post them but for now last night's list which was a bit big, is the current positions as most of the shorts I have, already moved-might as well hit these high Beta shorts.


What I posted yesterday was significant, and they were the highest Beta stock in the WL. What is important now is propper position sizing and diversification.


If you want a second opinion then let me know by email. Lets see what you have on the short side, what your exposure is and what needs to be trimmed or added. For rigt now let these shorts work. Another ippourtnity will present it self.


A strane chart that doesn't make a lot of sense to me is AIG starting to look a little bullish. There's a chance it may have some sort of pop or breakout from the descending wedge. If you try it, be conervative-these patterns usually give second chances to add, but it's one of the strangest charts I've seen as a long right now.


Use the email, I'm here to help and answer your questions: Brandt@Trade-Guild.net  or Bt24_7@yahoo.com

TIME TO START HITTING THE SHORTS

I have a lot I can give you, even look at past ideas within the last week or so, like STD which gave a good entry  few days back.


CTIC had a decent move today-look for follow through and an exit.
Reiterate Shorts on PWRD, JEF,GS.

The ideas I gave you for the 4th-on the list as the 3rd, are the ones that look the best now with the highest BETA. If I were to give you all, there would be 50. The Beta means if the market moves 1% and the stock has a Beta of 1, then it would move 1%. If the Beta is 1.20 then it would move about 1.2%. So some of these are big movers.

With the dollar showing strength I have Silver and oil on the list. Also there several foreign banks on the list, nearly all I'm tracking look bad.

Email me if you have questions.

Now Is the Time?

I'm seeing a lot of activity suggesting we are seeing the top of the bounce or the start of the top. So the shorts I've been talking about, maybe start adding to and getting into those positions but remain conservative until we get confirmation, but we are acting now on the shorts.

We are almost there

I'm not crazy about how the longs are performing, I'd say any chance you get to make a buck, take it soon-the rally wont last that long. Go to Trade-Guild.net and look at the 10 charts I posted including the short on GS!

For now, I'm putting a couple of shorts out there, but it's still hold mode until this bounce starts to roll-over then load em up.

Shorts

Here's a few I'd consider getting a position started in-not huge or if you have, add conservatively-PWRD and EBIX both short.

Not Lazy, Disciplined

Yesterday I wrote,
"The dollar remains strong but 3C suggests a pullback, which may give the market room to bounce."

An intraday chart of 3C-you can see on Friday it didn't make higher highs and thus gave me a warning of the reversal. This is one of the few indicators you will see (I created it) that has the power of prediction rather than reaction. If you'd like to try it, click on the links below and let them know that Trade Guild sent you and then email me.




Today, the market gave us a clue as to it's intensions. This is why I mixed it up yesterday. Hopefully the longs will move on the bounce, at that point, I'll be watching for signs of the end of the bounce-we sell the longs, add to or initiate shorts and we start making money on a market downtrend. So for now, I'm not adding anything, if your position is okay (email me if you need an opinion) then I'd say hold what ya got. We are letting our shorts bounce, I kept them rather small anticipating this so we'll ride that out and we are about 60% in terms of positions long and bout 60% in terms of capital short. When this is all said and done, I'd like to be near 85% short of invested capital. I'll let you know when I see a turn in 3C, but if the market bounce gives you a gift on the long side-20,30% gain or more-Take it and be prepared to start picking up shorts. I'm not sure how I'm going to give them to you because nearly all will line up the same day and I have over 200 excellent looking candidates.


Is this a bounce or more? 1580 of the Russell 2000 closed up-Strong right? No, they closed up on diminishing volume-the weakest of the 4 possible price volume relationships, this is a market that looks ready to bounce, but not very enthusiastic about it. Those kind of numbers are seen at the end of an up-move, not the start!


OF all NYSE stocks roughly 1650 closed down today, 3089 closed up on less volume and 1547 closed up on increasing volume-that is heavily lopsided bearish. Of the NASDAQ 100-77 of them closed up on lighter volume-EVEN WORSE! The Dow -30-26! The S&P-500 386 on lighter volume and only 65 on heavier.


You see what I mean-the market is petrified to move up. So be patient. Take a look at some of the past ideas that haven't moved for short term long trades, you can always run them by me or just wait. A Huge opportunity to back up the truck is days a way.