Well I said it would be an interesting last hour

Last night, market futures, especially Europe, looked pretty strong which usually implies a strong day here in the US. As you know, yesterday I took off my long positions and started positioning for a move down. 


Well the market couldn't get off its back all day, even with such a hefty beat in the NFP and that was really the only thing I expected to create some volatility to the upside early on, but nope! Then in afternoon trade, the 1 minute positive divergence defied the currencies, WALL STREET alone was moving the market, you would otherwise call that manipulating the market. It certainly wasn't the dismal Consumer Credit announced at 3 p.m., right around the time the market took off intraday. Consumer Credit wasn't "just" a miss, it fell the most in over a year!


So I figured maybe they were going to try for a new closing high/bull-trap/head fake, but they didn't quite make it. They may have done enough to lock in some longs over the weekend. None of the charts improved, so seems that they spent just enough money to move the market up, but they weren't accumulating.


It was a busy day for me, 85 emails today and a period of several hours of non-stop posting, I was "holding it" for more then 2 hours trying to take care of everything and watch the market. I'm still exhausted from last week. I NEVER sleep during the day, it feels like a waste of time, but yesterday after the close and wrapping up emails, my body took over and I slept until my dog Emma woke me up for "potty", I wrote my post after that for last night and right back to bed. I'm looking forward to some down time and I usually hate weekends because the market isn't open.


I think we'll be spreading Attila's ashes in the Atlantic Ocean at sunrise this weekend.


 My sincere sympathy goes out to one of our members/family/Wolf Pack who lost a beloved family member, a 13+ year old Cocker Spaniel named Chauncey (with a great life story) just a few short days ago. My thoughts are with you Jim and knowing the Wolf Pack, I'm sure many of theirs are too.


There's more to life then just trading and I'm blessed to have such a great pack. Trading can be lonely and isolating, I would say our members give back just as much as the site gives.


Have a great weekend everyone, As usual, by Sunday I'll have a post up.

Market Update

Much earlier today I showed consistent signs of a short term positive divergence suggesting a consolidation or bounce, we have seen both.

 SPY 1 min positive with a consolidation followed by an intraday bounce.

 DIA 1 min showing the same

 However it is no effecting the bearishness of the longer term signals like this 5 min DIA chart in a leading negative divergence, also showing signs of an intraday bounce.

 QQQ 1 min positive divergence and largely in line

 QQQ 10 min shows signs of the bounce, but still hasn't changed the negative picture of a leading negative divergence.

 IWM 1 min with a leading positive divergence on the intraday bounce

 However, once again it's not helping the 5 min hart which as I have numbered, shows 3C making lower highs/lower lows, or becoming more negative despite some positive price action intraday

IWM 10 min also shows no sign of improvement from the intraday bounce.

Wall Street is up to something, what or why, I don't know, but look at this.

 Here's the SPY bouncing for the last 1.5 hours.

Yet over the same period the Euro has weakened and the dollar has been stronger, this is exactly the opposite price reaction you would expect to see.

It seems clear to me that Wall Street is moving the market higher intraday, while it seems they continue to distribute in to the intraday strength. This is Wall Street's game. This isn't seen very often.

CHART REQUEST CSCO

 1 min negative, but showing the signs of an intraday bounce which is under way

 2 min-same as above

 5 min shows accumulation of the 10/4 lows and a current negative divergence

 10 min also shows a longer term accumulation period/base before the move up, currently a relative negative divergence

 15 min shows the last 3 cycles, distribution at the 9/27 top, accumulation at the 10/4 bottom and current distribution. Hows that for seeing Wall Street's underlying actions?

 30 min shows a longer accumulation period from 9/22 -10/4. CSCO "may" be in a wide trading range creating a bigger base. If so, we should see signs on the 1 day chart soon.

Current 60 min negative divergence, both in long and short relative terms as well as accumulation at the lows.

Before I go-Market update

 SPY

 DIA

 IWM

QQQ

Those short term positive divergences have already created a consolidation, whether they can add an intraday bounce, I don't know. However the 5/10 min chart, et still are negative, this doesn't appear at all to be anything more then what I first said, an intraday bounce/consolidation

JJC/Copper

Here's an interesting one, I'm going to give my thoughts and label the timeframes, but I desperately need 5 mins to get something to drink and powder my nose.

 5 min

 10 min

 15 min

 30 min

60 min

This looks like a pullback is coming, there was a margin hike by the CME in copper. However, there appears to be a much longer term very positive base. I would watch for a pullback to the $40 area and we'll check it again to see if the long term hart is better or worse. My impression is a large accumulation period is going on and it is simply trading within a base right now.

FCX/Coal

Coal tends to lead the market, but do I remember correctly a margin hike recently?

 FCX 2 min leading neg.

 5 min leading neg.

 10 min leading neg.

 15 min showing accumulation at the bottom and thus far in line trade.

 Same with the 30 min, except the move up in prices was on a negative divergence, I didn't check for support/resistance whether it was a head fake or not-or a bull trap.

Long term 60 min with a long term base and trading in a leading positive divergence. I would watch the $30 area carefully for signs about this and the broader market.

I think I have Carpal Tunnel Syndrome now... LOL

FXI/China 25

 1 min-looks like an intraday bounce, you can see the last one 3C called out

 2 min leading negative -also signs of a bounce intraday

 5 min leading negative-signs of intraday bounce

 10 min leading negative

15 min looks bad.

The 30 min has deteriorated a little, but is still leading positive, the 60 min is in line.

EEM/Emerging Markets

 EEM 1 min, negative, suggesting a possible bounce intrday

 2 min the same as above

 5 min was negative yesterday, continued today and is almost leading negative.

 10 min and 15 min above and below as well as 30/60 min are all about in line with price-trend confirmation.

QUICK MARKET UPDATE

 DIA 1 min looks like there may be a consolidation or intraday bounce

 DIA 2 min leading negative

 DIA 5 min leading negative, but also may be ready for a bounce, or the 10 min just hasn't caught up yet

 DIA 10 min leading negative

The 30 min is flat, not sure if I would say negative as the market is flatish, but this has me thinking about getting a little more aggressive on my shorts, I'm just concerned with the Germany/France meeting this weekend about the ESFS-a wild card over the weekend.

 QQQ 2 min also showing signs of a possible intraday bounce

 The 5 min is negative, but is also close to looking like an intraday bounce.

 The 10 min is leading negative.

 As is the 15 min, another reason to think about shorting some more.

 The 30 min is probably in line, but not looking as good as it was before when it was leading positive a bit.

 SPY 1 min suggests an intraday bounce-which may serve as a good area to make any tactical adjustments you may want to make.

 The 5 min also looks like a probable consolidation or intraday bounce.

 10 min is leading negative-again, bounce or just hasn't caught up?

 SPY 15 min has been the strongest of all the averages, it's still in positive territory, but flat today, which is somewhat of a deterioration.

The same with the 30 min.

Again, this has me thinking (if I can get to it) to get a little more aggressive on the model portfolio.