A Little Under the Weather Tonight

I'll be posting the week wrap up tomorrow. Basically I think we are still on track for a bounce-it looked like we would get it today as the DOW and the S&P were positive most of the session, but not today. There is a strong upside reversal candlestick pattern in place I'll tell you more about and the trades I dropped today should do pretty well next week-especially oil.

I'll be back Tomorrow-thanks for the understanding.

One Last One for the Road

STEC is down badly, it appears to be seeing some bounce-type accumulation so for a bounce play, consider STEC long-this is very short term. I would say a stop around 12.26 would make sense and not have too much risk, but again, it's a bounce long so it is speculative.

SCO

THIS ULTRASHORT OF CRUDE SEEMS TO BE BREAKING DOWN, I DON'T THINK YOU CAN SHORT IT, BUT I DO BELIEVE YOU CAN BUY SOMETHING LIKE DBO WHICH IS A LEVERAGED LONG ON OIL-SORRY FOR THE CAPS

To Bounce or not to Bounce

The SPY $108.64 area seems to be an important area of support developing. To really fuel a bounce into next week and give us a lot of great opportunities, I think the SPY needs to tackle the $109 level.

The 5 min 3C is showing a negative divergence at the 1:45-ish highs, but the 1 min chart is still fairly strong.

This is what I call a sloppy market. The charts almost look as if a child scribbled on a piece of paper. I really do not like these type of charts and would never trade a stock with one. I hope we see something more solid after 3 p.m.

In any case, as last night's video suggested, we do have higher prices in both the Dow and S&P-however the Q's and the Russell 2k are both lagging, I doubt they make it today.

Another Short Term Long Trade

This 1 min chart of FDO shows a persistent positive 3C posture, a consolidation and the apparent breakout from it. Initially a stop below the consolidation around $42.85 makes sense, it's not a lot of risk, but be careful with position sizing here. If the trade works, email me and we'll look for targets and stops.

NFLX

While short trades were not high on my priority list, there appears to be at least a quick short trade in NFLX which is breaking down out of an intraday triangle around $131.70. It mat be worth a shot, anything above $132.50 short term, I would stop out. If the trade works, email me and we can look at it as a longer time frame position trade.

**UPDATE-add PCLN to the short term trades as s short position, there are several timeframes all negative.

USO and GS seem to be decent short term-(market bounce) long trades. If you like them, email me for more information.

AAPL

Just met the target for a long trade-this is a short time frame trade, meant to follow the market bounce. I would suggest using a stop that locks in gains, perhaps something like a 50 bar moving average on a 5 min chart. This is considered a counter trend trade and thus is a little risky so I wouldn't over commit funds to it. You could also use higher highs, higher lows =uptrend definition for a stop.

Oil

10-minute 3C chart of USO. The 5 and 1 minute charts are also positive. There's a negative divergence in UUP (proxy for the $USD) and the Dollar typically moves opposite of Oil because oil is priced in $USD. Any loss of value in the dollar demands higher prices in oil to compensate. So between the negative divergence suggesting lower prices in the dollar, it also suggests higher prices in the market and oil. This is not something that is meant to imply strength in the market or that I have abandoned my bearish bias, I'm leaving all my bearish plays in place, this is just signifying the probability, as I suggested in the video last night of a market bounce. Again to put this all in perspective, look at the 2008 charts right after the initial break of the major top or the same in the 1929 crash that I have posted recently, they both show that despite an extremely bearish environment, nothing goes straight down. This long oil trade or long market trade is just a short term bounce type of trade. IF/when it comes to pass it could be a day, it could be a week. This is why I posted the past bear market crash charts so you can see that this type of behavior is normal. At the same time, for short term traders, it does offer a prospective short term opportunity.

Finally

We finally have two positive divergences in the SPY, the DIA has been positive a few minutes longer. I divergence is the strongest tick signal as shown in the video last night, the other is 3C, both at 11:06

Update

Thus far this morning 3C has been very flat, no obvious signals except some accumulation on the gap lower at the open as we saw yesterday. It's kind of an eerie quietness. So we keep watching. If you saw last night's video, then you know I think the highest probability is another day of some price strength, it obviously is not strong strength, but the fact we haven't seen another 2+% decline suggests there is some there. COT triggered long this a.m. and has pulled back into some accumulation so it could be a decent quick trade on the long side, just be sure to have a good stop and understand that we are in a very bearish environment which means it could turn anytime and you must be ready to take profits on a stock like this and not become attached because of gains it may make for you.

AAPL

AAPL is in a downside continuation pattern, but 3C suggests an intraday breakout up is coming, I'd wait for confirmation maybe above $250.50-$250.75 and this may make a decent long day trade

COT

JUST TRIGGERED A LONG POSITION