HGSI-Worth a Look

 Here's a weekly chart with a triangle...

 The hourly 3C chart...

 15 min positive divergence...

 10 min positive divergence...

 1 min positive divergence....

Above the green line @ $25.55, might make for a good probing long entry. A stop at the red trendline around $25.05 makes this a fairly low risk probing trade.

GLD follow up

I've been watching GLD for a false breakout as the triangle was very obvious. What makes sense fundamentally doesn't always jive with the chart, but that' part of the market's continuos surprises and how Wall Street makes its living.

 Gold's breakout makes fundamental sense, but is it real?

 the 10-min chart...-

 The 5 min chart

The 1 min chart

This is not the follow through you'd expect to see and there seems to be plenty of profit taking. Just a reminder, keep your risk management in place and be ready to change as the market gives you reason. It's not about being right, it's about making money.

FXP-a Trade Opportunity

 FXP-Daily-Long term this is a very bullish chart. Here's a fairly low risk set up, long above the green trendline with a stop under the red line-also at the 50-day moving average.

 My Crossover Trade Screen, we have 3 signals giving a long signal

Here, intraday you can see a low volume pullback and small base, a breakout above the trendline would be very bullish. Look for volume to increase on any move up.

Market Update

The SPY 1 min chart

PCLN-Doll of Momentum

The porcelain of the market doll, PCLN is showing some cracks. I was asked to look at PCLN as an earnings play. I look for very distinct patterns in 3C that suggest earnings may have been leaked, I do not see those here -at least not yet-we have until the 17th and I wouldn't expect to see them yet anyway. However, here is what I do see.

 In a linear regression  channel, PCLN is deteriorating.

 Here you see a false breakout from the channel, as usual, false breakouts reverse quickly and this one was not as fast and volatile as some, but it did fall to the lower channel.

 Surprisingly, you may not have seen it, but since that breakout, we've had nearly 2.5 months where PCLN has only gained 3.72%-severe underperformance and another sign of the falling upside momentum.

 The daily 3C accumulation/Distribution cycle seems to be playing out as there was confirmation from the accumulative base during June-July-confirmation ran from then until November at the false breakout, since we have seen a distributive cycle.

 The hourly chart confirms this as well.

 So does the 15 minute chart

 Here's the Heiken-Ashi chart -in white we've seen some momentum along the top Bollinger bands, that faded fast. In yellow we have a series of indecision candles and the bands are squeezing as volatility drops signaling a highly directional move may be in the works. Volume has dropped as well, you will see why in a moment. Note at the red arrows the last volatility squeezes and the events after them.

 Here we see the trend loosing momentum as a very high reading or 64 turned down, the current reading of 22 is near a trendless market. Also the Vortex indicator has lacked clear signals lately.

 From the false breakout, you see a divergence in RSI

 Here's TSV 55- a long version similar to 3C accumulation/distribution. Look at the red squares on the left and see what happened the last time TSV crossed down through the moving average as well as the "0" line, we are on a similar path now with a negative overall divergence.

Here's a triangle, and this is why you saw declining volume and the indecision in the Heiken-Ashi chart.

Ultimately there may be a false breakout to the upside, but I have a feeling the long term chart is falling apart.

Market Micro-and mid-term update

These are the 3C charts of the DIA, IWM, QQQQ and SPY in 1/5/15 minute timeframes

 DIA 1

 DIA 5 MIN

 DIA 15 MIN

 IWM 1 MIN

 IWM 5 MIN

 IWM 15 MIN

 QQQQ 1 MIN

 QQQQ 5 MIN

 QQQQ 15 MIN

 SPY 1 MIN

 SPY 5 MIN

SPY 15 MIN

It appears there was some accumulation around 11 a.m., we'll have to see if we get the same accumulation as last Friday in the late afternoon, the same happened yesterday.

World Events Portray the Rise of Radical Islam

We know nearly every government in the Middle East and many in Northern Africa and even the poorest parts of Eastern Europe have felt the effects of riots, food riots and protests-peacful or violent. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt which may or may not gain a foot hold in Egyptian politics as they have failed in recent parliamentary elections and thus far have failed to put forth a strong opposition figure that protesters support, is clearly working with armed militants from Hamas that crossed over into Egypt last week to coordinate protests. It's becoming very unclear whether the military regime (forget Mubarak-he's done) will be able to whether the storm. As I've said, what protesters call for and what they get can diverge radically as we saw in the Revolution in Iran in 1979 which overthrew the Shah. Even here in America many Democrats are increasingly disenchanted with their presidential choice. This is not a judgement of the President, just an observation of fact. These are becoming and may be known as the golden days of Islamic militant factions, this is what they have been trying to achieve and now, without their direct participation, opportunities are being handed to them with no losses, no fighting. I imagine many see this as a sign from Allah. Again, I'm not making judgements.

Inflation, which Bernanke refuses to see in its true state is clearly behind the initial spark that has sent the middle east into chaos. As I've mentioned, the US has for decades miscalculated foreign and economic policy and failed to see or imagine the costs and consequences of their actions. Egyptians know that the tear gas thrown at them by police and internal security forces came from the U.S. and it seems the consensus is, most Egyptians couldn't care less about the peace treaty with Israel or the relations with the U.S., why do you think the US has been a key benefactor to the Egyptian regime? These are extremely dangerous times of unintended consequences. It's shocking that oil traders are so short sighted by rumors of Mubarak's fall. It's shocking to hear the Joint Chiefs of Staff say that the American military stands ready to assist. Perhaps they do have a clue, but to hear it and for Egyptians to hear it may have been a shockingly bad miscalculation.

As for the Muslim Brotherhood, of course they have toned down the rhetoric in recent incarnations over the last decade and appeared to be non-radicalized, but why then are they working with their offshoot -Hamas?

Here are some recent statements by officials within the Brotherhood

NEWS 1
NEWS 2


Egypt has for decades been the bedrock of semi-secular support for a stable mid-east. Should radical elements infiltrate and succeed in changing the face of Egyptian positions with regard to Israel, other allies in the region will fall fast.

I don't believe the Iraq war was all about oil, (although you can not say it wasn't about oil to a large extent as HAL profited enormously and we all remember oil prices a few years ago), but a more strategic view was about setting up a US military presence in the middle of key opponents such as Syria and Iran. Whether Mr. Obama grasps that and how important it was to have a US presence and stable government there that would tolerate American bases on the outskirts and border regions of Iraq is an unknown?

Even Iran is not happy with Egyptian events as the shift of power in the middle east could dramatically reduce Iran's influence and bring Egypt to center stage. These are huge events and one wonders about reports from the BLS today whether the Fed may be looking for an early exit strategy as it is clear that their Q.E program has helped stir rampant inflation in all sorts of commodities, especially food. I never understood their take on inflation excluding volatile gas and food as these are the staples of everyday life.

In any case, world events are shifting the undertones in the market, it's not obvious yet, but in looking through some high Beta stocks where I expected to see a huge ramp up, I found many looking very poorly over recent weeks.

Be prepared to be prepared.

Not that I listen to CNBC, but....

Speculative Trade-NGAS Long

 NGAS daily chart in a consolidation.

 Here' a recent 15 min positive divergence in NGAS

I'd look for a breakout above $.60 to trigger a trade. This will be on the SPECULATIVE watchlist as price makes this clearly a speculative trade.

And Here's the Reason

Rumor of Mubarak to resign. click the link

USO

Here was the other possibility we discussed with regard to USO's direction, that is why the trade was characterized as a "probing" trade.

Doesn't make a lot of sense with middle east conflict, but the charts are the charts and price action is the ultimate judge. Luckily USO was in a good R:R set-up position and not extended.

 5 min negative divergence right off the opening gap-in other words-distribution right off the open into the highs.

The 1 min is confirming with a slight chance of an intraday bounce developing.

EEE Continues it's vertical climb

Numerous posts on EEE have been put out and trades, it's now up over for us 613% since 12/29 when it triggered at $.61, we had another alert trade just this week on 2/2 I believe.

Here's the charts

 EEE Here's the original trade at $.61-We've had subsequent trades since.

 The 5 min 3C looks good

 1 min 3C shows profit taking at the highs today

 Here's a possible stop based on a 10-bar moving average on a 15 minute chart

Here's a longer Trend Channel stop using a 60 minute chart.

I'd probably be taking some profit off the table today and trailing a stop.

POMO Results in-Submitted:Accepted Ratio 3.96x

This is just a bit below the median of 4.1x and is slightly bullish for the market. As far as what was monetized in a flip, I'll get that data to you ASAP.

For those looking for POMO Results, you can get them from the NY Fed which carries out the monetization of debt.

NY FED

Both of our Trades in Bonds are Doing Well

And they're not too far away to get involved...

 TLT short

For those that want a little more bang for the buck, 3x leveraged TMV Long.