Quick Post

I hope everyone did well today,

I just wanted to touch base before tomorrow. First, THANK YOU ALL SO MUCH FOR ALL OF THE KIND, THOUGHTFUL EMAILS, you are my family.

Second, as always, tomorrow is the F_O_M_C announcement and as I always warn, BEWARE THE KNEE JERK REACTION, it's strong, but often wrong and in this case was part of what we were expecting to culminate the choppy range predicted Friday, Sunday and Monday.

I haven't gone through the entire market yet, but this is EXACTLY WHAT I THOUGHT WE'D SEE AND TOMORROW'S F_E_D POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT MAY BE THE TRIGGER.

The way I see it, the market has another $10 bn in tapering priced in or that's consensus so if the F_E_D abstains that sends the market higher, but they don't even need to do that, even if the policy statement sounds slightly more dovish, that could be the same trigger because it seems (as expected since Friday) that the market had enough time (almost exactly) to build a base in to the F_O_M_C tomorrow at 2 pm and the key to it was the USD/JPY and Yen/USD and they all did what we expected.

Remember the big picture is weakness so while we hitch-hike on some trading longs, the real play is shorting price strength.

The charts and really the only ones that matter for me right now...

 As of Friday/Sunday we needed some Yen downside and we had signals for it., we've gotten that as the USD/JPY had just hit another lower low in its downtrend, but recall we need that pair to move up for a bounce to trade long and sell short in to.

This 15 min chart still has the overall negative and price did fall as expected, there's a small positive so I might expect a pullback in the early afternoon before the F_O_M_C at 2 pm

 We also had signals for the $USD to gain and it did, still positive so that's still on point.

 60 min chart of the USD/JPY, the downtrend since 2014 started is clear, lower highs/lower lows. We were near the lows of the year when we saw this sideways chop in the market coming, which establishes a small base to bounce off, but not big enough to change anything. We have some hitch hiking longs, but the big play is to short or add to shorts on a bounce or price strength, not true market strength.

The orange box is where I predicted the USD/JPY would move to before this is over, I believe on Sunday, we have a good start.

ES 15 min went from a clear downtrend toward that volatile, wide chop or lateral/sideways trade, what was needed to form a reversal process, I predicted 2.5 days and tomorrow afternoon it will be 2.5 days.

So far, so good.

 The NQ 5 min chart shows a small negative divegrence, this fits perfectly with the Yen chart, a small pullback tomorrow - probably early afternoon, a last chance to set up hedges/longs. The wide, choppy sideways trade since Monday should be apparent.

And TF 1 min futures tonight show a sharper negative divegrence as they should, again hinting at a pullback which would really just be part of this lateral/sideways chop that we were looking for.

Everything looks great after being away a day.

I have a feeling the exchange from longs to shorts will occur fairly quickly, but can still be intensely volatile.

Don't forget what the prize (Big picture) is.

TF/Russell 2000 futures daily chart's massive distribution.


I'll see you in a few hours and THANK YOU AGAIN, YOU ARE REALLY THE BEST I COULD EVER HOPE FOR.