Tuesday, August 31, 2010

This may be my last update for the trading day

I do see what appears to be some building accumulation in the SPY, but more in the Q's and DIA on a 5 -min chart. Price action is in a consolidation, almost the entire day since the move of the opening lows, this could suggest we are seeing a quiet effort to move the market higher perhaps toward the last hour of the day. Again, it is a listless market and indicators are not highly reliable in a consolidation zone as they react to the swings up and down, that's why I used a 5 min chart to give better clarity.



USO Update

The 1 min positive divergence continues-remember though, we saw quite a few in the market get run over yesterday, however we do have the oil inventory report tomorrow morning, that "could" spark a Catalyst-

Thanks GG!

USO Struggling to Gain a Foothold?

It's a 1-min positive divergence, not anything more yet, but it is in the area of the continuation flag I talked about last week, that flag may be acting as support.

TICK INDEX

This index is useful for day traders and those looking for some extra confirmation in small intraday moves that may be at very important levels. Here the Index in green goes into a negative divergence after the breakout in the QQQQ, you can see the SPY in red moving higher, the Tick Index moving lower which created the small pullback we saw right after the breakout in the Q's triangle. So far the triangle held up to the first test. Anyway, another short term tool you should look into.

AAPL GOOG

Interestingly, both are in different size triangles, that have not broken out yet, GOOG is bigger then AAPL's, but the Q's did break-these are two stocks to watch as they are bellwethers for the market. Tech like the semi conductors will also be an area of interest.

Interestingly USO and the dollar are both down now, but the dollar looks short term to medium term to be in better shape, I don't like the way oil is behaving at all, the negative divergences are getting stronger there, as yesterday, oil seems to be one place smart money is operating.

Why so Quiet?

I know some of you are wondering that, I'm just not seeing that accumulation by market makers that would propel a bounce higher, it's another day s if it's just retail traders running the show, there seems to be no plotting scheming or planning. It's strange and it makes me look at the charts in a more typical view since 3C is not showing anything really. I see a continuation triangle from just after 11 am that is breaking to the upside, so now I suppose the thing to watch for is if this bounce can stand on it's feet and the point in which smart money re-enters the market, it should be on the sell-side. That's why so quiet, there's just a strange listlessness in 3C, it's not common, I'm going to look around some more, at market leaders and such and see if there are traps being set there.

Watch this little 1-min triangle and make sure it doesn't break below the $43.60 area on the QQQQ, that would probably lead to a downside move.

Update 2

I've seen this relative divergence, it was there last night and I talked about it when I mentioned that the 1 min charts were not that far gone and sat in pretty good posture, well the relative divergence has held and prices have moved up a bit, but I must admit, this was not the kind of accumulation I was looking for, I was looking for something beyond that, something more decisive.

We'll see what develops.

Morning Trade Notes

The gap down is not much of a surprise considering how we ended the day, however whether we finish our bounce today or head lower, as we have seen so many times, the opening gap is reliable to predict just about nothing.

If there is to be a recovery and a bounce today then we should see accumulation into the opening gap, it won't be there right away, but it should appear soon.