Friday, September 30, 2011
Inverse ETFs
Always look for confirmation, here are a few inverse ETFs, meaning shorts.
These are all 15 min charts ERY
FAZ
SPXU
SQQQ
One More Example
Another Example
This is the opposite and a negative divergence. This is the last uptrend as it topped and we went short on the top.
Here we measure the highs at 9/16 (click on the chart for a larger view) and then 9/20 makes higher highs, this is a head fake and we see it more often then not, but compare 3C at the second move, the higher high, 3C is lower then the first top. This tells us there is significantly less money in the stock even though it is making a higher high. That's why we call it the underlying action. If you weren't looking at 3C, most traders would buy the higher high, this fell about 8%, or nearly 24% for the position we were using and 24% in 2 days is a pretty decent gain.
Example
In the last post when I said I'd like to see movement in the range, even a drop below the range because it makes it easier to tell what's going on, this is what I mean.
Since 3C is measuring the raw data of money flow at different time intervals, movement is good. For example, the QQQ above is positive at the low end of the range around 9:30, the recent move to the low end of the range shows 3C even higher, it's this relative comparison that tells me whether there's more money flowing in at the same level or less, here we see more.
The SPY on a 15 min chart, it's hard to make this chart move a lot in a day and to make a positive divergence in a day is very hard. Looking at yesterday's late action at the bottom of the range and comparing it to the recent move to the bottom of the range shows a big difference in 3C, it's moved up quite a bit, especially for this time frame in such a short period of time.
Chart Request Copper-FCX/JJC
Being copper tend to lead the market, I've updated FCX a few times recently.
FCX 1 min leading positive
FCX 2 min leading positive
FCX 5 min leading positive and king of range bound trade, at least turning lateral
FCX 10 min leading positive
FCX 15 min leading positive
FCX 60 min also leading positive-this may have something to do with a bigger move in the market, remember how good the commodities index looked as far as the underlying trade from yesterday?
I don't want to speculate too much, but when did commodities really get out of control to the upside?
JJC 1 min leading positive divergence-this is a running divergence, there's an intraday negative.
KKC 5 min leading positive, look at the leading status now and the last accumulation period even though pries are lower now, that's very bullish as far as the underlying trade goes.
JJC 15 min, again the same situation as above.
JJC 30 min leading positive divergence-even at the reversal on Tuesday it was leading, this tends to confirm what I said earlier, "I look at this as 1 accumulation zone".
JJC 60 min positive divergence is out of control to the upside, VERY BULLISH.
As for the 3C depth hart, JJC is hitting levels consistent with the start of QE2, the very thing that drove commodities up so high.
Perhaps it's true, the BENK only knows 1 thing, PRINT
I don't want to speculate too much, but when did commodities really get out of control to the upside?
Perhaps it's true, the BENK only knows 1 thing, PRINT
Short Term Update
All leading positive divergences. I said to a member yesterday that would prefer to see a rally on Monday or Tuesday rather then today, to keep momentum up. From what I have seen the last few days and especially today with a seemingly dull market, this looks like almost every other accumulation period we have seen. If this keeps up today, I will consider adding any dry powder in to the mix. There are still some other charts want to check for confirmation. I'd also prefer to see some more movement inside the ranges I showed at the end of the last market post, it makes it easier to confirm accumulation near the lows of the range or even a peak below the range.
Jimmy B's Speech
Here's a link to Bloomberg covering the speech of the man who's name I shall not utter least be locked up abroad in Saudi Arabia.
Bloomberg Story
Can you believe they are talking about this, this is the second time in two days! The first time was from the Grand Daddy himself. This is the kind of event I said we'd need to see to get a catalyst to make that move that the longer term charts have been implying as per this earlier post.
Bloomberg Story
Can you believe they are talking about this, this is the second time in two days! The first time was from the Grand Daddy himself. This is the kind of event I said we'd need to see to get a catalyst to make that move that the longer term charts have been implying as per this earlier post.
Market Update
Remember that accumulation occurs in to lower prices and flat trading ranges, usually in that order.
