I made it back from my appointment with 5 vials-whoa! Not good for a needle phobic, but I told them to use the bigger needle to get it done faster to get back before the close-that's devotion :)
So the last charts I just posted I wanted to get out ASAP so I didn't annote them, I thought the signals were all pretty obvious.
So now I'm going to answer some emails and take a closer look at the close and post some better charts for you.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
CONTEXT/Credit/Commodities
Before I go (not really in a rush for this appointment) I saw this and thought you should see it.
Earlier both the Context Model and ES were headed lower with ES leading, now the model is leading, meaning underlying risk assets are selling of t a faster pace then ES-this is bearish for ES.
Here commodities hit a multi-day new low and are dislocated from the SPX
Furthermore Credit has sold off to a new multi-day low as well.
Credit leads the market, equities follow.
Credit leads the market, equities follow.
Out for an hour
I unfortunately have a Dr or rather lab appointment in 30 minutes to get my blood drawn... Ugh, I'm a bit of a needle-phobic, I'll be bringing my laptop and hopefully will have a connection, but if not, I'll catch up on any emails and end of day action as soon as return, it's just down the street so hopefully it goes quick (for more then 1 reason).
Keep URRE on your radar
So far URRE is doing what I have been looking for, so long as it keeps rounding and volume keeps picking up (it doesn't have to be huge spikes, just a bit higher) then it appears it has found a rounding bottom.
Rounding price action, volume is piking up. The volume should expand, but still stay relatively quiet until it breaks out in to stage 2 mark up.
15 min 3C in the bottom area.
Daily 3C still very strong
Market Update
The market s looking like some heavy distribution is taking place and in the same area is was seen the last few days.
DIA leading negative
IWM leading negative
IWM 2 min leading negative
QQQ 2 min leading negative
SPY 1 min leading negative
SPY 2 min leading negative
The NYSE TICK chart has also had a change in character today.
This looks like a distribution zone.
This looks like a distribution zone.
Interesting USO behavior
I like to see if there s some catalyst behind the move, 3C has been negative, but this is a sharp move and against the FX correlation
Broad Market Update
Although I have marked divergences to make them easier to see and I've tried to show today's action as well, try to look at the price trend vs. the 3C trend, try to block out my annotations and just visualize the trend of each. Remember when prices are down and 3C is up, it's a positive for the market, when prices are up and 3C is trending down, it's a negative and when price and 3C travel together, it is confirmation of the trend (marked with green arrows).
DIA long term 1 min trend, the yellow arrow marks a bullish triangle head fake. While many individual divergences are marked, the most important is the recent leading negative in the red box.
This is the recent action on the 1 min chart in the DIA, there's a nice head fake, today's overall trend has been negative, not following prices.
The 5 min chart also reveals the bigger trend, the red box is the worst divergence, a leading negative.
This long term 30 min chart is a good one to try to visualize just the price and 3 trend.
IWM 1 min shows distribution in to today's move.
The longer 2 min trend, 3C fails to make higher highs.
An even longer 2 min perspective, another good one to try to ignore the annotations. This is also showing the IWM in the most dangerous spot on this chart.
IWM 5 min, I have marked divergences with arrows and the effected price region with boxes around price, white positive/ red negative. Note how small the positive divergences are vs the negative divergences in length.
IWM 5 min for today, hitting apparent resistance or a sell/short zone.
There are many interesting divergences on the 30 min chart, but again, the trend is what is most telling and the recent leading negative divergence also makes this a dangerous area for the IWM
The IWM 60 min reduces the noise and the trend is apparent.
QQQ 1 min action for today, note it is going negative in to a price spike, note past price spikes w/ negative divergences like the one to the left.
long term QQQ 1 min trend
Long term QQQ 2 min trend, also in a dangerous spot right now.
QQQ 2 min close up of yesterday and today
QQQ 10 min trend
Another area I have marked divergences and the effected price area, but the overall trend is most telling.
Although this is a good chart to study to see how divergences effect price.
The QQQ hourly is very clear as far as the trend goes and it's one of the most important timeframes.
SPY 1 min for recent action
The longer term 1 min trend.
Recent SPY 2 min action
Longer term 5 min SPY trend.
The 30 min sPY trend is very dangerous here.
Here's the long term daily XLE trend.
Some interesting action in the XLF 2 min chart, remember the rotation I showed earlier.
XLF 15 min is in trouble too.
The long term 30 min XLF trend.
XLK recent action is quite troublesome
The 15 min chart looks very bad here.
The hourly really tells the story though.
Take a look at this when you have more time to study it closer. There's good short/long term confirmation, good confirmation between averages and industry groups and the trends are quite clearly negative
IWM 1 min shows distribution in to today's move.
Although this is a good chart to study to see how divergences effect price.
Take a look at this when you have more time to study it closer. There's good short/long term confirmation, good confirmation between averages and industry groups and the trends are quite clearly negative
