A FEW IDEAS,

TAKE A LOOK AT TRADE-GUILD TONIGHT http://www.trade-guild.net/2010/04/as-expected.html

It looks like the bounce may be over, so now is the time (if in fact this is true), to start adding a little more to your position, but you still don't want to be fully committed. As mentioned, clean up those long positions, especially the non-performers.

If you have questions, don't hesitate to email me.

Bounce , Bounce, Bounce.....

Last night I wrote on Trade Guild that I thought we'd see a bounce up, we got that today . 3C is looking like we'll see some more tomorrow, as are the after hour indications. I wouldn't be surprised however, to see the day end mixed, neutral or down.

Again, you can use today to enter reasonable short positions, I'd advocate buying the position or shorting it in 1/4 or 1/3's. The idea is not to fill out the position until we get downside confirmation (the bounce is over). All of the ideas listed, especially the broader ETF's, are all good selections. The best strategy would be wait until you see a breakdown, or a new low and then add to the position, intraday is the best or near the close.

The move up today was unimpressive and the market breadth was horrible, the dominant price volume relationship was close up/volume down which is actually the most bearish configuration even through we saw a net gain on the day.

I'd say a break of 118.20-118.40 on the SPY would be a trigger to add. You could also add at a run up to resistance at the 122 area, but you'd need to close out that part of the position if the SPY were to close above 122 or at least thin it out, this is why I'm saying "go slow putting on your shorts". Also that's an ideal area to take profits on longs and reduce your long exposure.

The break on the QQQQ would be at $48.90 and the DIA around $109.70.

My favorite tend to be the Ultra-Short ETF's. Be sure you do NOT over-correlate positions in similar industries.

If you are using 3C, watch the 5 minute chart for negative divergences near resistance-that would be an ideal time to start building or adding a short position.

Today's advance is meaningless in the context of the damage done on the last move down. I believe this is a bull-trap and it will trigger on the SPY at 118.20, QQQQ 48.90 and the DIA at 109.70. Watch for big volume as price crosses below that level, at that point it is likely you'll see a waterfall sell-off.

Email any questions to me at BT24_7@yahoo.com

DONT FORGET TO CHECK TRADE GUILD

The article calling the reversal was posted Monday afternoon, it came true almost to a tee using 3C, it's not me -it's my indicator. Check it out.

THIS IS WHAT WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR

It's time to start loading the truck up, don't be reckless, you may want to initiate positions and add to them on pullbacks (if you didn't already today based on my last post).

I have a lot of ideas, longs, stocks, and ETFs. Again, don't be reckless, stick to the 2% rule, but get that cash to work in the market. Downside moves can be very fast and you don't want to miss them-FEAR is stronger than GREED!

Bulltrap to be sprung?

A close below 1207.50 area should do it, check the recent shorts. Some other ideas would be ETF's that are Ultrshort or short financials like SKF (long) or FAZ (long). You may also want some market exposure through an ETF like TWM. Right now, I have a lot of shorts on the spread sheet, most will be good plays, even if they have crossed through their stops. A Bull trap usually sees a fast move down, that is why I saw get in there and get broad exposure to the short side, maybe clean up the longs. If we get the close I mentioned, you'll want to have at least 50/50 short/long exposure and maybe even heavier on the short side, although another day of confirmation will allow you time to get up to about a 70/30 ratio.

Tonight, I'll post individual ideas that are new, I want to make sure we get what I think we are going to get before I have you commit capital that may end up being counter trend. There are very few longs I would consider AT THIS MOMENT.

Look for a new Spreadsheet tonight with new ideas. Remember not to make any short position too big, they must conform to the 2% rule/position sizing and I'd enter half of the intended position s close to the close as possible unless the break below the mentioned level comes intraday on heavy volume and the retest of resistance-(1207 area) fails, then intraday trades would make sense, but if the close is not below our level, you'll want to thin them out before the close.

Bull Trap

Take a look at the last post at Trade-Guild.net. Then take a look at the recent shorts. I'll add more tonight, but I think there's a strong chance a bulltrap was just set.

Grab Bag

I'm having some trouble with the spreadsheet tonight, so I'm listing the trades here as you'd find them on the spreadsheet.

Symbol/Position long or short/ Stop/ Notes and Targets



COIN/ L/ $.86/ target $1.48 speculative

AKS/ S/ $20.10/ target $12

XOMA/ L/ $.63/ target=1.50 speculative

LSCC/ L/ $3.81/ target $7

CPF/ L/ $1.90/ speculative, but could be a big winner-target $5.75+

EMKR/ L/ $1.15/ TARGET =POSSIBLY $4

CRBC/ L/ $1/ VERY SPECULATIVE-COULD BE A BIG MOVER-TARGET AS HIGH AS $5+

BAC/ S/ $19.07 /LIMIT ORDER <$18.11 TARGET $14, MAYBE LOWER

STD/ S/ $15/ LIMIT ORDER<$13.50 TARGET BELOW $10

NVDA/ S/ $17.40/ LIMIT ORDER< $16.36-TARGET $14-$11.50

STP/ S/ $14.67/ TARGET $11-$8

I'll get them on the spread sheet as soon as it starts behaving. We had 7% and 10% movers today from last night's list! I hope you made some $$

LONG TRADES

Here are a few nice looking longs that look ready to break out of bases. Just remember your risk management rules, no position loses more then 1-2% of portfolio value, do not over correlate positions and be cautious with speculative trades. Last, take a gift when you get it.

Good luck. Intermediate term/long term, still looking for a significant move down.

GOOD START

We have what looks to be a change in sentiment, still, I advise you keep your positions reasonable until we get solid confirmation. I listed quite a few ETF's, but no stops or targets yet, I want to see how things develop, but these are selected for the maximum potential profits.

The other trades are decent looking as well.

As always, in a situation like this (uncertainty), I would say buy your position in 1/3's.

We'll see this week if this is the real thing, but volume Friday showed us a commitment on the part of traders we haven't seen in months, maybe a lot longer. Be ready, be cautious.

New Trades up

Read the rant at T.G.

I posted a few longs tonight, but I think FRE/FNM are also a couple of longs worth a shot. Email me any companies you know the Feds have seized that is still publicly trading and I'll take a look at it and see if there's anything there.

Toes in the Water

Check earnings dates before taking any of these trades. They are about evenly split between longs and shorts. The market hasn't decided yet with A's putrid numbers that were more like a pig with lipstick. Today however, INTC blew out earnings, however it's all about sentiment. AA got slightly spanked today, INTC will probably be rewarded tomorrow, but the question is not what did they do, it is what will they do and today's report might be a hard act to follow next quarter.

So I've listed a few trades that looks decent whichever way this thing breaks. Interestingly, financials didn't look great....

There may be some targets there or some double ETFs.

Remember, it's earnings, if you have to trade, do so cautiously.

Read this

That's my take and even though AA is down a little in after hours, we need to see the reaction tomorrow, as well as the six banks I mentioned-you may want to look into going short in one of those. 

Above is an hourly 3C chart-note the negative divergence (distribution) into the top-same with the blue (long term) 3C.

And here's today's 1-min 3C chart? Did someone know something as they sold into the gap up this a.m.?

I'll post trades tomorrow, but I want to see which way sentiment goes.

Earnings Season Begins Monday

I hate to trade during earnings, you lose your edge and technical analysis is all about gaining an edge. That being said, there will be no trade ideas posted tonight until we see the market's reaction to Alcoa's earnings report.

What we are looking for is not what's in the report, but how the market responds to the report. The last few days the market has been marked up and looks set to gap up Monday morning based on Asian trade tonight. This behavior is impossible to reconcile at this point when the market breadth has been shaky at best and apathetic in most cases over the last 3 weeks. Speaking of which, it seems the market is up almost everyday, but the SP-500 has gained less then 3% in the last 3 weeks, just to put things into perspective.

If you want to get a leg up, the sectors I'll be paying close attention to next week will be: Computer and Software Services, Conglomerates, Media, Consumer Durables, Drugs, Energy, Health Services, Materials, Housing, Auto Manufacturers, Financials, Specialty Retail and Treasury related securities.

Lets see what mood the market is in. It's fair to say that interest rates will be rising and there are a lot of industries that will suffer as a result of that so rate sensitive sectors like semi-conductors and bio-techs, businesses that rely on borrowed capital that are not producing positive cash flow will all be on the radar.

So take a break, be patient and we'll leap when the odds are in our favor.

Have a great week.

Sell High Buy Low

Same as being long, just in reverse-short selling! Today's higher prices gave better entries into many of the shorts I've laid out recently. Still we have the problem of confirmation, but one thing to keep in mind, there are more up days in a bear market then down days....

Don't swing for the fences yet. This is a volatile time. Clean up those longs, take profits. I'd be oriented at least 50% of your invested portfolio on the short side and maybe 50% of the portfolio in the market.

WE HAVE IT

Please read the last two articles posted at Trade-Guild.net today, finally we have some decisive negative breadth and even on a day when we had some good news like the treasury auctions going well, sentiment is shifting.

I've included a few spec trades tonight, but a lot of the trade, especially the ETFs toward the bottom of the list, are longer term plays. I think you can get your toes wet, but wait for more confirmation before diving right in.

It is important that you read the Trade Guild posts.

Good luck

DON'T KNOW IF THIS IS A MISTAKE

I posted some decent looking trades, I'm not really that confident in the market right now, I want to see some confirmation. the upside moves are nearly meaningless, they have little breadth. However, before we can jump in with both feet, we need the confirmation that we have been awaiting. You paid for the service so I need to give you something for your money, but right now, please play it safe, don't swing for the fences right now.

Extended Easter

It's interesting the Fed called this Monday meeting having known the job numbers, having just had a very poor showing for Treasuries at auction and on a day when half the world's markets will be closed as in much of the rest of the world, Easter is a two-day event running into Monday and on a day that is sure to have light volume here in the Us with extended holiday weekends.

I wonder what they have to say? The last time they did this they hiked the rate on the discount window. In any case, something is not passing the smell test. I'm going to urge caution for Monday, take a look at the recent lists, there are a lot of good ideas on there such as MOT short and some longs if you are so inclined to trade, but I'm going to see how this plays out.

Technical Analysis is about putting the odds in your favor, it's like the difference between a gambler and a card counter. With such uncertainty-not to mention the market's reaction to the Friday jobs report- it's difficult to put any odds in your favor. Monday trading is more akin to gambling so hand tight. I'll deliver you up lots of ideas once we see where this is going.

And Happy Easter...