Daily Wrap

Today's gap up was right along the lines of expectations since leading indicators and 3C divergences started giving us objective evidence in the afternoon, but even before that, it was pretty much expected based on the head fake concept and the reversal process concept both detailed in yesterday's post, GLD, SQQQ & Head Fakes.

The IWM/R2K looked a lot more like a textbook head fake, although head fakes are meant to be more extreme and move emotion which causes traders to move positioning. The NASDAQ's move was a lot more in line with what I suggested a head fake should do in yesterday's DAILY WRAP

"... as the reversal process continues and perhaps we get a head fake move which sounds scary, it feels even scarier, but would be an absolute blessing to new positions getting ready for a downside pivot. "

The relative performance was a bit off today after the initial opening gap up...

 With the NDX by far showing the best relative performance and the Dow (which has some pretty ugly charts surprisingly relative to the others) and Transports looking the worst.

However the NDX also had the best head fake set-up by far on its daily chart, clear resistance at 3 points, that will get any technical trader's attention and that's EXACTLY what head fake moves are designed to do.

As mentioned earlier today, all short squeeze here which you can tell by the diagonal line up with little to no pullbacks.

However intraday breadth market wide was on the weak side, also indicative of a short squeeze.

Other than the open with a quick 1500+ reading, TICK spent most of the day in a fairly normal range barely touching +1000 levels which are far from extremes in breadth, you wouldn't think that looking at the NDX's price action alone.

As I said yesterday in the DAILY WRAP, 

"Futures didn't look good as I showed a sampling of, the charts saw a lot of deterioration today, there was an attempt to support the market after the Yellen decline with HYG so that kind of tells me the reversal process which is very narrow at this point is likely not over, especially with no head fake move and if I'm correct in my thinking that the next move down slices through the 200-day (SPX), then a head fake move would be an even higher probability with such an important move to come right after."

From the looks of this chart, it looks pretty clear that there's some Carry funded support in the form of USD/JPY...

USD/JPY (candlesticks) vs ES/SPX-E-mini Futures (purple) on a 5 min chart. However if you recall yesterday's Futures update as I run through 80+ futures charts in multiple timeframes each day, one of the things I mentioned was from the look of $USDX and Yen futures, it looks like the USD/JPY is about to come down. I went through the same charts today and came up with the same probability.

$USD looks a bit more stable, but as for Yen futures...

 Yen futures 5 min chart

Yen futures 15 min chart

Yen futures 30 min chart...

There are more timeframes in between that are positive in the Yen, but you get the idea. While the $USD looks a bit more stable, I didn't say it doesn't have negative divergence and if you understand the carry pair of USD/JPY. a move higher in the Yen/JPY means a move lower in the USD/JPY which as you saw above compared to ES, appears to be another mechanism (outside of HYG, VIX smack-downs etc.) that has provided support for this market bounce. Obviously a reversal in the FX pair would have market consequences and it's interesting how the timeframes in Yen futures fit with the negative divergence in most of the Index Futures. This is the thing I love about the market, there's a ton of correlation and confirmation or non-confirmation if you know where to look.

As you saw earlier in Leading Indicators, the TLT pullback I expected today was VERY short loved in in that short loved period sent Yields even lower which have been acting as a leading indicator as of late, which means they tend to pull the equity market toward them (yields) like a magnet, again, as posted in today's lI update, yields were even lower today diverging significantly with the SPX where as they led it to the upside earlier in the week and late last week. I think some financial commentators are having trouble understanding this relationship or strange relationship, but this is simply one of the reasons we have long used yields as a leading indicator because they do diverge and they tend to be one of my favorite leading indicators (so long as nothing funky os going on in treasuries as we saw earlier in the year).

There isn't much I haven't covered this week or especially the last 2-days, you've seen just about everything out there, everything I have expected and thus far those expectations being met. I decided to be patient today because tomorrow is a monthly options expiration and we "usually" see a max-pain op-ex pin somewhere near Thursday's close until about 2 p.m. and then the last 2 hours of the day, we tend to get some of the best data of the week. Strictly from a reversal process perspective, this is appealing if that's what we get, I think it would set up even stronger divergences, better timing on positions and more certainty as I really want to be as close as possible with option positions.

While not the strongest head fake move, I did like the IWM close very much as well as the higher volume in the SPY and QQQ, the reason is simple and best exemplified by the IWM.

The IWM put in a closing Daily Star with increased volume, which is a more reliable downside reversal candle, especially because of the volume.

As for the head fake move itself in the IWM, as I said , it wasn't the most impressive, but from a proportionality point of view (and there's more proportionality in these stages than most people realize), it is nearly a textbook example , with the exception of the psychological component which the QQQ/NDX was bay far the best example with the best setup as seen above with CLEAR resistance which traders will chase on break out confirmation.

The IWM Igloo/Chimney top just as I had shown several examples of yesterday well before we knew we were getting such a move beyond the high probability of the concept...

From yesterday's GLD, SQQQ & Head Fakes when the IWM was still very ugly on the downside...

Examples of past Igloo/Chimney head fake moves and yesterday's notable absence of any such move, which as I pointed out above would be even more important with a downside move taking out the 200-day as sentiment makes a big change at that point just as this bounce has changed sentiment to wildly bullish with traders chasing price-otherwise known as bull traps that have the same or equal, but opposite effect as a short squeeze on a downside move. Also note there's a proportionality between the reversal process and the preceding trend and/or the former reversal process. This has been a pretty parabolic move so my expectations weren't for a huge reversal process, but as of this chart from yesterday, it was still way too skinny.

While I'm most interested (right now) in what Index futures look like in the morning as yesterday I anticipated the 3-5 min charts would fall out of sync today on a head fake move and remember,  this was before we had a head fake move , as posted yesterday in the DAILY WRAP:

"While the 3 min charts are still ugly, these could move toward positive if we are going to get a head fake move and it wouldn't be a bother, In fact the 5 min charts could as well and I wouldn't be too concerned about it as long as they are clearly negative by the time we are loading up the truck which is a PREREQUISITE "

As of this time, we are getting some odd signals in the intraday and 3 min charts, however as I said above, it's what they look like in the morning and most importantly during the cash market tomorrow, in this case I think patience today will pay off as well.

 ES intraday suggesting distribution through the head fake today, actually that's the way we confirm a head fake and as for the stellar performing NDX...

NQ futures have taken a sharp downturn really since about 12:30 today, but really in to the After hours so it will be interesting and informative to me what they end up looking like in the morning as they can easily hit the 5 min timeframe overnight.

We have some interesting signals on the table from Leading Indicators to the averages, to Futures. Tonight's is no different thus far and we "seem" to be right on track with last Friday's week Ahead forecast that this bounce process would take up the week, which it has thus far.

Bonus charts... 
I like to check in on Breadth charts every now and then. We've seen it declining for a good year+ now, but it is especially notable now, here are a few examples and remember this uses the largest US stock Index, ALL NYSE stocks. If you think the trouble "might" be imaginary, think again.

 The Breadth Indicator is Green, the comparison symbol is the SPX in red unless otherwise noted...

The Percentage of ALL NYSE Stocks Trading ABOVE Their 40-Day Moving Average. In a normal, fairly healthy market this average runs around 80% , it hasn't moved above 60% this year and has been as low as 20% with a current reading of just over 40%, so despite a head fake move, a short squeeze, a week long bounce that has been the best bounce of the year, the Percentage of ALL NYSE Stocks Trading ABOVE Their 40-Day Moving Average has refused to make a higher high (green).

The Percentage of ALL NYSE Stocks Trading ABOVE Their 200-Day Moving Average vs the SPX (red) which usually runs around +70% in a normal market. Not only is the indicator making a series of lower highs and lows, but is at the lowest high pivot of the year.

The Percentage of ALL NYSE Stocks Trading 1 Standard Deviation ABOVE Their 40-Day Moving Average, or momentum stocks which are usually around +70% on a rally/bounce and now right around a mere 30% again with a clear trend lower.

The Percentage of ALL NYSE Stocks Trading 2 Standard deviations ABOVE Their 200-Day Moving Average which usually runs around +40%, now barely able to break 10% and another clear trend of lower highs and lower lows.

The NASDAQ COMPOSITE's A/D line which is much worse than it looks here over a longer period, but as you can see, despite the new NDX breakout today, breadth in the NASDAQ has fallen way off and didnn't even make a new high for the year which is already significantly depressed.

Remember these are hard math percentages of stocks within the NYSE, there's no interpretation, no tricks, no gimmicks, no quirks about the indications, it's pure, cold, hard math and it's very bad breadth!

I'll check in on futures before turning in, as usual if there's something that looks out of place and needs to be aired out, I'll post it, otherwise we'll let the market which has been well managed through the overnight session all week ( but now Yellen is done speaking before Congress)  tell us what it has to say in the morning before the open. I'm expecting a max-pain join with signals deteriorating through the day, that would be ideal in my view.

It seems many of you have already logged on to the new website, take a look around, there are ways to manage the content type that is delivered to you by email or you can get everything by default as it is now. I'll give you advance notice and we'll send out test posts/emails so you can verify your settings are as you want them. Don't be afraid to update your password if you like or your email address for email delivery. 

Have  a great night!

NEW WEBSITE

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I will still be posting as normal at this site with our normal Groups email delivery until sometime next week when we will transition to the new site. You will receive advance notice before we move to the new site.

Please take some time to look around and familiarize yourself with members' portal content and settings.

Once I start posting on the new site, I will automatically set the default email subscription for everyone.  I'm just trying to keep you from having those posts sent to you twice, one from blogger and one from new site.  You will be able to change your email under your profile settings as well as the categories you wish to receive.  Otherwise all posts will be sent to your email by default.

Thank you for your patience with our transition.  If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.

Brandt H

NFLX Update

After NFLX's post earnings gap, I've answered a lot of emails today saying "NFLX is in line right now, I wouldn't be shorting it at the moment, but I'll keep an eye on it today".

So after having kept an eye on it all day, I still wouldn't say this is a short entry, but there has been deterioration which can be seen the price's ROC alone, but beyond that...

 Intraday turning negative 1 min'

The same at the stronger 3 min

And surprisingly out to 5 min intraday.

It would seem to me this strength is being sold in to. However to make this a short, I want to see that these charts are reflecting massive distribution, that doesn't take too long to get to from a 5 min chart going negative in a single day, but until it does, I'd say don't try to average it, not until there's excellent probabilities for doing so. So far there are pretty decent probabilities based on a single day's trade, but let the chart get to the point where it can't be ignored any longer.

There's a high probability that even though NFLX has a better relative performance than the overall market, when the overall market is ready to pivot down, NFLX will feel the pull.

Quick Update

I'm just on the edge of pulling the trigger on numerous positions such as QQQ puts, IWM puts (especially), maybe AAPL, and numerous others.

The intraday charts have really turned on these, for example...

 IWM intraday leading negative looking very good for an options/put position.

QQQ intraday falling apart and not just the Q's, but...

NDX futures as well.

AAPL which I mentioned as being on the list of assets I'm closely looking at also showing some real deterioration intraday.

Then there's the same voice from late yesterday that said, "Don't chase the IWM lower". I think this has more to do with an options expiration max-pain pin which as we know typically opens and holds near Thursday's close, which I'm thinking might offer more deterioration, stronger signals and better timing.

I have already set up some decent exposure to the short side with positions in UVXY long, SQQQ long, SRTY long, BIS long, etc (all inverse ETFs), but for the final positions, the ones that are best timed especially for options, something is telling me, just be patient. Let those charts just make you panic to get positions out.

I think there's pretty decent exposure, but for the moment I think I'm going to go with my gut which is not a guess, it's an educated guess based on the charts, based on how the market normally reacts on options expiration and based on an overall view of Leading Indicators, market averages and Index futures.

I don't think a day is going to make a huge difference and it's actually right in line with expectations for this week that this process last the week.

If I see anything moving more than I'd anticipate and looking like it needs immediate attention in to the close, I'll put them out there. For now, we've done some work, actually a bit of it, I think I'm going to trust patience and the overall picture here.

Leading Indicators

Really just a break from tunnel vision, but a good reminder of what's really what when you start focussing too closely on intraday moves and looking for the smallest signal standing out that is like the thread that unravels the entire sweater.

Honestly, the intraday, "Threading the needle"can be exhausting. If I were just trading my own account and not worried about numerous different traders' styles and the information they need, I'd just log in my short orders, head to the beach, come back next week and be a happy guy, but on the other hand, if you're going to do something, do it right to the best of your ability.

However once in a while, that requires stepping back from the tick of each 1 minute bar and seeing what the bigger picture is showing, reminding yourself of who's who in the zoo and where we are so we know where we are going.

Leading Indicators have been very useful even on an intraday basis, for example we saw the VIX and HYG levers pulled yesterday which gave us a good idea of what to expect today, which is a major concept (the topping Igloo/Chimney). As I said yesterday in the DAILY WRAP post,

" ...as the reversal process continues and perhaps we get a head fake move which sounds scary, it feels even scarier, but would be an absolute blessing to new positions getting ready for a downside pivot. "

So I took a minute to see what the Leading Indicators were saying as they have been pretty consistent and I added in some longer term Leading Indicators which are the most important. Then we'll get back to the intraday stuff. During my moments of stepping back, I'm thinking with tomorrow being the monthly options expiration and with the market most often opening near the Thursday close, tomorrow might offer the best openings to positions that are highly leveraged such as options, but this is just a thought based on experience and really what matters most is what the charts tell us.

As for Leading Indicators...

 This is the SPX:RUT Ratio Custom Indicator which has been supportive of the bounce early on, but has turned down and the last 2 days have diverged significantly which is what I want to see in a head fake scenario.

Our custom VIX Inversion incidicator with buy signals at the white painted bars and candles gave an earlier buy signal, you may recall last week we forecast a head fake move on Tuesday at "B" which played out, but did not see the accumulation it should have so we stood by and good thing as the market remained flat from there then a second signal was given.

Remember these signals have no target attached to them other than generally the bigger they are, the stronger they are. There's no downside sell signal level, but you can see the indicator has fallen way off since giving buy signals for a bounce which we are currently in.

 This is a daily chart's longer view and you can see it has been a fairly accurate indication when there's a VIX inversion but the previous 2 buy signals didn't go far on their bounces.

 HYG/HY Corp. Credit is again, one of the first levers of market manipulation pulled for short term moves, we often know something is coming by early HYG divergences. It may be a bit early to call the death of HYG's bounce and market support, but intraday charts are getting ugly.

 This is HYG in blue vs the SPX in green, you can see the relative performance, HYG's support for the bounce, but this asset that is almost exclusively traded by smart money has not been as excited about chasing upside risk as the market which should tell you something,

The last several days/week have seen a serious fall off in the relative performance, even though we see very near term signals of support like yesterday's 3C positive divergence .

 On a longer term trend, it should be remembered that the basic saying is "HY Credit leads, stocks follow". In this case HY Corp. Credit has made a series of lower highs and lower lows and is clearly in a primary downtrend that the market should catch down to.

 Here's a better view of HYG vs the SPX. At #1 HYG is leading the market higher during the entire QE episodes, at #2 it is in line wit the SPX and at #3 it starts making lower highs and lower lows which is a primary downtrend. The SPX has some serious catching down to do and I suspect that starts with the next pivot to the downside slicing through the SPX's 200-day moving average.

 As for Pro Sentiment, this is the first positive/bounce divergence since May, but as you see, they don't seem willing to take on risk, as I called this bounce before it even started, rather than a risk on move, a risk off bounce as I expected pros to be selling in to it and that's what the chart above is telling us as well as numerous others.

 This is that downtrend since the May SPX head fake/false breakout (yellow) and the first positive divergence that has since failed.

 And our secondary/confirmation Pro Sentiment indication showing the same thing.

 Yields led the market higher as they act like a magnet for equities, but recently they have led it lower as you can see.

 The same goes for commodities.

 And the long term picture in commodities is leading much lower, but this is in large part a reflection of China''s state of affairs, commodity prices always have been.

 And HY Credit which has been mildly supportive short term which is no longer, in fact leading negative at a head fake move today.

As for the bigger picture, the same as HYG Credit with a leading position, in line and then leading negative in a primary downtrend.

These are some of the most damning charts for the stock market.

And of course for the Dow theory buffs the ratio between Industrials and the once high flying transports. That's Dow non confirmation and historically a very bad signal for the market.

Now that we have some perspective, back to the nitty gritty...

IWM Follow Up

Or rather SRTY. It seems I made a typo in the last market update post and typed "Blog off top' regarding the QQQ, that should have said, "Blow-off top".

In any case, here's the IWM, why I chose a partial position at this point (3 years ago I would have absolutely gone all in, I've learned to be a bit more patient since then and a bit more careful-probably too careful in some instances, but over the period of many years and many trades I'd rather be a little too careful and have the best signals than too enthusiastic on what I believe in before I actually have the objective evidence that operates us from gamblers going on a hunch, even an educated hunch).

 IWM 2 min with yesterday's intraday negative sending it lower causing me a brief moment of panic before telling myself that all of the probabilities point to a wider reversal process and the highest probability is a head fake move around 80% before a reversal, usually right before a reversal. Then additional charts with divergences like the late day positive (white) started showing up and patience was well founded.

The 2 min chart is leading negative deeper today than yesterday and this is important on a 2min chart which is far from the strongest timeframe because of timing, at this stage these intraday charts make for excellent timing signals. Note the price difference between point A and point B and note the 3C difference between point A and B, that is the essence of a divergence and exactly what I want to see in a suspected head fake move because it's only a head fake move if you can show objective evidence that it is most likely to fail, then it becomes a very valuable positioning point in the cycle.

 This is the 1 min intraday chart, it's overall negative and there's not much to see, the only thing to see is the far right with a potential intraday positive divergence which could send the IWM back toward its morning range. If the other charts and/or this chart keep leading negative and worsening in to an intraday move back toward the a.m. highs in IWM, we then have the basis for a sweet options entry. Not that it couldn't be done here and now, but if you're going to try to thread the needle, might as well do it right.

 The 5 min IWM chart is just on the border of making a new leading low which is important because of the concept of migration and the 10 min chart that I pointed out earlier in my first IWM update, IWM UPDATE

In fact since capturing these charts, the IWM is seeing some additional upside as the intraday 1 min chart was very close to pointing out at the time of capture and the 5 min chart above is now leading at a new low below the red trendily so the hopes that I had or was beginning to explain above are already in play right now.

 As I was explaining, the importance of the 5 min chart deteriorating is that the divergence is strengthening and in this morning's first IWM update, I said I'd like to see the 10 min chart make a new leading negative low. At the time I captured the 10 min chart for the post this morning, the IWM 10 min was right at the small red hash mark and I drew in a blue arrow showing where I'd like to see it move. Thus far it has moved lower as expected and hoped for and the target I set was a new leading negative low below the yellow trendily.

Since capturing this chart just 5+ mins ago, it too is lower than what you see above and just off the yellow line which I anticipate it will break beneath, if it can do this with the IWM still holding up price, the options/put position entry looks exceptionally good which is part of the reason (leaving options open-no pun intended), for the partial SRTY position.

 The real dirty chart is this 30 min chart, it reduces noise as small moves don't show up here, they aren't strong enough to, but the larger underlying trend is cleaned up and is much more clear.

This is officially a VERY ugly chart, I really can't see this not being an excellent short so it's really all about timing right now and which tools are deployed (options, ETFs, leveraged ETFs, etc.)

The same thing is seen here on the Russell 2000 futures 15 min chart with the small base from a week or so ago with an in line trend on stage 2 mark up of this bounce cycle and a pretty clear divergence at the stage 3 top of this cycle.

So far so good, patience does pay, it's nerve racking sometimes, but if its based on objective evidence and strong concepts, it usually wins out.

TRADE IDEA: SRTY (IWM 3X SHORT) LONG

I'm going to go ahead and open that SRTY position I was hoping to score as the IWM lost ground yesterday and I refused to chase it lower. The charts are moving in the right direction, but I do still have a standard I want to see met on that 10 min chart I mentioned earlier. For now I'll open half a fill size position in SRTY which is already bigger than a full size IWM short. If the charts that I'm looking for are met, I'll either add to the SRTY and/or open an IWM put position, although the Q's are ;looking more interesting for that which is why I left room in SQQQ yesterday.

Quick Market Update

I just went through the Futures charts again, there definitely looks to be several different trend changes coming, one looks to be the USD/JPY as mentioned yesterday.

The QQQ looks to be in a short squeeze (which wouldn't be surprising) while intraday internals look like this via TICK...

 Intraday NYSE TICK which other than the open with a +1500 print, has been in a VERY mellow range and trending down all morning.

Our custom TICK histogram shows yesterday's late day ugliness and then the closing improvement that went with several end of day positive divergence suggesting we would see a move higher from yesterday's closing levels and put in an more appropriate (relative proportionally sized and head fake) reversal process. My drawing is not great and the scaling is not very good for such a drawing, but this would be the Igloo/Chimney top/head fake in the SPY (yellow), but the real point of interest with the Q's acting as they are is the intraday TICK here as well trending down as intraday breadth gets worse.

I'd dare to say the Q's are looking like a blog-off move.

Among Index futures, like yesterday, one of the ugliest set of charts belongs to Dow futures which is now what I would have expected.

Among leading indicators, HY Credit is falling/divergent, HYG was used yesterday as we saw as a ramping/support lever, but today is pretty flat and not willing to chase risk much more. Other Leading Indicators like the SPX:RUT ratio are in worse position than they were yesterday, the Pro Sentiment indicators which were split yesterday with one leaning toward higher prices today are still split, but commodities continue to diverge lower and 30 year yields, which I suspected we'd see a pullback in TLT today which we did on the pen before it took off to the upside once again are creating an even wider leading divergence between yields and the SPX which is a negative leading indication for the market.

The Q's are just putting in their first intraday negative divergence since jumping in line so watch them and the IWM is worsening.

I'm going to take a closer look at the IWM, I might be much closer to an IWM position than I thought I'd be at this time of day.

More to follow, but this is looking like the typical head fake move, especially in the QQQ.

IWM UPDATE

Yesterday the IWM broke down and really tested my patience as I'd love an IWM short here whether a longer term leveraged inverse ETF such as SRTY (3x short IWM) and/or maybe a put position. I didn't chase IWM lower yesterday, today is a perfect reason why we don't chase assets. 

So I'm watching IWM which was one of the averages that sent out a late day positive divergence suggesting it was going to make either a wider reversal process or a head fake move, either way, it was telling us that chasing the IWM after it had lost that late afternoon ground was not at all in our best interest.

As for today, I'm very interested in IWM, I'm very thankful that it did come back up and is in a nice looking position. At this moment, like the rest of the market, it's about the charts/timing and when to take action or "load up the truck". I'm not crazy about the idea of opening an options trade the day before a monthly options expiration so I'm completely depending on the charts which as I said yesterday are VERY ugly, but they can get even worse and that's what I'm looking for.

Specifically looking at IWM it is one of the most symmetrical examples of an Igloo/Chimney top as posted earlier this morning.

The charts which I'll keep pretty simple for now...

A Pretty textbook looking Igloo/Chimney example, although they are often more extreme. The "Chimney" or head fake portion as posted yesterday, GLD, SQQQ & Head Fakes, are typically fairly short relative to the reversal process and often proportional as this one looks, however even as they tend to be one of the best price-based timing indications for a trend reversal (in this case down), it's important to make sure the charts are giving good timing signals as this is really threading the needle,  plus confirming that it is a head fake/false move is the most important thing.

 Thus far I'm starting with this 2 min chart because this is the one showing the divergences yesterday that took the IWM lower, much lower relative to the other averages and this is also the one that posted the late day positive divergence suggesting it was not done in the area and would head higher.

So far this morning the 3C indication is a leading negative divergence, of course if this just continues to deteriorate, then a position in the IWM will be very enticing, op-ex tomorrow or not.

The more important 10 min chart shows what I believe was the IWM's top and the last downside pivot, then recall we opened an IWM call position which was closed earlier this week, ironically even with today's upside move, the closing of the IWM calls, Closing July 17th IWM $125 Calls was really perfect. Today the calls are worth just a little less than when we closed them on Tuesday, the difference is I doubt there are many people who would have been able to stomach holding them yesterday as their value plunged considering they expire tomorrow.

Also note to the far right the blue arrow I drew in on the chart, ideally I would like to see 3C make a move similar to the blue arrow I drew on the chart and post a new leading negative low.

 The even stronger 30 min chart shows the IWM's price/trend confirmation on the upside to the far left and the larger negative divergence, what I think was the IWM's top in the middle of the chart and the current leading negative divergence on a  30 min chart which is a very strong signal.

So as I started the post, I'll end it the same way... at this point, most of what I'm looking for is timing related, whether a position today makes the most sense, maybe tomorrow or Monday- it's up to the charts to tell us the message of the market. So far it's looking pretty good for today, but that's speculation until that objective evidence comes in and I see the chart that can't be ignored.

I just want to throw the IWM out there for your consideration, as it may be coming up very quickly.