QUICK EOD WRAP

I'll make an effort to put up a more extensive Daily Wrap or perhaps some trade ideas as many people found this post, which was a quick update of the watchlist or positions we have some activity in, very useful.

The truth is, today is my Birthday and I have a B-day dinner with family. Remarkably a few of you somehow knew/remembered my birthday which I find amazing as I didn't even realize today was my birthday until I saw my inbox filled with FB birthday messages. For those of you who sent me birthday wishes and emails today, Thank you very much, but I want to know how you knew!!!!

In any case, the market is getting stranger and stranger, all of the cycles that we are so use to are starting to really just look like empty shells or wasted efforts. I told you yesterday that this "W" base in the market was already quite weak compared to the typical cycle base. When I saw how much the market was depending on levers of intraday manipulation (The SPY Arbitrage model), I was a bit surprised as they weren't using levers to get past a sticky point in the market, they were using them the entire day.

As I suspected a few days ago, something more than meets the eye is going on with TLT, I chose some very long (August) calls to try to see how long I can hold that position as by summer, the market should be in shambles and treasuries should do well not only from a "Flight to safety " trade status, but because banks will not have the free lunch they have had since 2009 and they'll need collateral to put up to borrow from the F_E_D as QE is eventually withdrawn and the housing sector comes crashing down (it's like 2007 all over again in many respects)- not to mention whatever they have in the market, that could be big trouble.

The only real correlation that counts any more is this one...

 The Yen / SPX (green/red respectively) correlation, it's the only one that seems to matter across the globe including Japan as well.

This is a 1 min chart of today.

Surely most of you remember me tracking and noting the changes in character in the carry trades? I posted probably over a hundred charts over the course of a month or so that looked a lot like these below.

 This is the AUD/JPY carry trade which I was tracking and making the argument that these were being shut down. Remember, carry trades in FX (currency) are a way hedge funds and others leverage their AUM (Assets Under Management) as these Carry positions can have as much as 200:1 leverage.

The AUD/JPY was a channel buster, by the way, these all started just before the new cycle that started at 11/16/2012 lows. The pair broke above the channel (channel buster) which appears at first to be bullish, but rarely ever is; then it breaks down below the channel.

 The EUR/USD did the same thing, you can see it peal away from the trendline, break under it and pullback to what we call, "Kissing the channel goodbye"

The USD/JPY is the only one left and this is why the yen has such a tight correlation with the market.

Today (overnight) the Nikkei which only a week or so ago and all of this year was like a runaway train to the upside with the bulls driving, was down again, this time by 5% when an unsourced piece came out via Reuters saying the Japanese Pension system was allowing a change that would let stocks move higher in the pension program, I don't understand exactly what it was, but it did this to the Nikkei instantly, even without a source...

It looked like this is the USD/JPY...

1 min $USD/JPY.

As I said, things looked a bit lose in the market, but I wasn't in panic mode, I find the market almost wants to get you in that mode and chasing stuff only to be violently whipsawed the other direction.

Near the close, the USD/JPY really looked like it was and still will, make a run higher which is obviously good for the market on the upside.

 The leading positive divergence (1 min)  in the pair near the close looks very strong. However much like the market averages' 3C charts, the big picture doesn't look so good.

This is the 4 hour chart of the pair for the year, I trust the 3C trend is VERY clear?

So if we look at some of the averages, we see the same thing on a macro and micro (meaning days or less) basis.

Lets look at the SPY

 Intraday 1 min, I trust the signal is clear, if not, then price following the signal should be clear.

At 3 mins we have an almost "in line" status.

At 5, leading negative

30 min leading negative

2 hour leading negative as the SPX is near the highs for the year and 3C is near the lows for the year on a very powerful timeframe, that's bad.

My interpretation, the very short term intraday trade either gave out, is pulling back before trying to ramp higher or was specifically trying to scare people in to making rushed, emotional decisions and positions.


The 3 min tells me that this is not yet over, it could end up that way, but so far the intraday volatility which I warned would make it very hard to hold a position, thus our "Hit and Run" tactics, is just shaking everything lose. However the signal is not that consistent that I'd say WE MUST BE in all positions NOW.

The 5 min tells me that while the above may be true, we don't have long. The 30 min and 2 hour show the damage is done, its bad and we aren't coming back from this.

I saw the same pattern in a number of individual bellwether stocks today as well, this is why I had to exit some of the options as a loss of momentum is a killer, but I feel we can still ride some to the upside for a day or so longer.

The bottom line is things are looking really bad, but we still have some time and a lot of positions that are ALMOST there, its just a matter of patience.

I'll try to get back with you again after my B-day dinner.

Oh, by the way, the closed positions (which have less and less profit as the volatility takes over, looked like this:

The URTY (3x Long IWM ETF) was a full size position and was in the equities tracking portfolio as a hedge for some short positions I liked the entry on and didn't want to give them up. The gain was around 3%, but again, this was used largely as a hedge until I felt I didn't need it anymore, which was today. A position that large and leveraged going the wrong way on a market break-down wouldn't be good.

The NFLX Call position that was closed yesterday for volatility/momentum reasons, was opened again today with nearly an 11% 1-day gain. I think there's more upside if we get another decent entry so we may play this one again. Heck, some Hedge funds can't make 11%, actually the majority of hedge funds can't make 11% for the year, much less a day.

I'd say things are still on track, but VERY volatile and with that comes increased unpredictability. So I'll be winding down call trades and focussing on filling out equity shorts which I would have done more of today if I had felt the signals were telling me, "This is a high probability trade right now". Instead many were saying, this is a great trade that in years past you would have gladly taken right here and now, but we have a better edge now that allows for better entries.

The $USD move is looking so strong...

If you can enter a leveraged short GLD ETF for a short term trade, you can catch the pullback I'm quite sure

SLV and GLD

SLV is obviously filling the gap, it is showing positive signals as it does so which is good as it sets up a low risk long trade, in my view it's not ready yet, but perhaps by tomorrow.

I think with the $USD finding some upside soon, GLD will do the same and both will likely offer nice long swing or option trades.

We'll watch tomorrow, that may be the time, at least for SLV.

UNG

UNG suffered some intraday downside, however it seems to have stabilized and the divergences that were in place earlier are building again and in some important cases, were building through the afternoon decline so I'm fine with sticking out UNG for now.

Market Update and GS Charts

I'm a little amped up, but not panicky and rushing about to get short everything, I think that is short sighted.

It looks to me as if the $USD will see higher ground and the JPY lower, that means the USD/JPY moves higher and that carries risk with it and supports the market.

GS is actually a good proxy for the market and why I'm not rushing.

 The 1 min intraday is not good, but it's not as bad as it should be considering the other charts.

This is why I feel the market and GS still have some probable upside, although it is likely to come in choppy volatility.

This 3 min chart is serious damage, this is why I don't mind adding GS here and now because we are so close to a real waterfall break

All of the other charts look bad, I'm just not posting 7 charts right now.

The most important is the 60 min, it was in line on the downtrend and the uptrend preceding it, it is completely leading negative, GS has been nothing but sold through this entire May move.

This again is a good proxy for the market

GS

I wouldn't mind adding to the GS Core position equity short here, if it gives signals like it will bounce fairly strong, it can just be sold and re-opened.

My feel for the charts which I'll post later is that GS will see near term volatility up and down, but the important charts are trashed so if you have the stomach for some near term volatility, I think this is great positioning for an equity short. I'd probably leave a little room to add

Holding the MCP Calls for now

The longer term signals on MCP are good so I'm wondering if this is a shakeout move as most traders expect the triangle to break to the upside, that's why I suspected it would and quickly fail, but a shakeout to the downside followed by a breakout to the upside (Crazy Ivan) is just as workable.

Also opening June $20 XLF Puts - SPEC

As for longer term positions, XLF short is one I wouldn't mind starting here, at least 50% or FAZ long for 3x leverage short Financials. I wouldn't want to completely fill the positions out, but I wouldn't be too bothered about opening them here.

AAPL

AAPL is getting VERY parabolic. I'm considering adding to the equity short position, but I still don't have the signals I want. I think short term AAPL is coming down after a parabolic move like this, but you have to be nimble to play it.

Another Way to Play TLT W/O Options

You can play TLT long without options and still get some leverage by shorting TBT, which is a 2x leveraged Bear ETF for 20+ year Treasuries,  essentially it is a 2x leveraged short of TLT, so instead of buying TBT, you short it and you are effectively long TLT 2x.

TLT continues to show nice accumulation on every dip today around the $114.50 area. A head fake move below $114 would be great to add in to, but I don't know how much longer this market can hold it together.

Market Update

They are pulling the levers, I can only assume they're going to try for an afternoon ramp, however have you noticed how "Wedged" the averages are today? The typical head fake for a bearish ascending wedge would be an upside breakout followed by a decline.

It's obvious from the SPY arb that this market has no strength to make these moves without pulling a lot of levers. Also CONTEXT is dropping as TLT improves, this is what I though t the positive model was all about last night.

In addition, the $USD looks like it will pop to the upside, it has been flat with a nice positive divergence

 SPY Arbitrage-they are pulling all levers to try to move this market up. This is why the "W" base looked so weak, it was. If they need all the levers to move the market up, there's very little strength in that base.

ES/CONTEXT model is coming down as Treasuries have improved.

Watch that wedge in the SPY/Market

Going to go with a QQQ Put Trading Position

This is for a 1-day pullback, maybe a bit more or less, but it's a short term spec position and I think it will make a little money. I'll probably go with a June $75 Put, again, SPECULATIVE SIZE POSITION

GLD

GLD is looking very good for a continued bear market rally run to the upside, however near term it will likely fill today's gap. I don't have signals beyond intraday 1 min that suggest that yet, but if GLD does fill the gap, that pullback would be a nice entry for a GLD long, however you choose to play it.

If I had GLD calls I'd be out by now and am, but if I had a leveraged ETF or GLD equity long, I'd ride out the gap fill and keep those positions, maybe add if we get the gap fill. Normally I'd say 90% we get it, but until I have more signals confirm,ing, I can't say that and the gap could be filled on the way back down as this does look like a bear market rally in GLD.

GOOG

I'd really like to add to GOOG (short) equity position and fill it out, but GOOG really looks like it will make a move higher first which has to say something for the market.

Remember we have the op-ex Friday (I know they are weekly) and Thursday's tend to close pretty close to Friday's pin.

That may be part of what all of these mixed signals are about.

I'm going to remain patient with GOOG for now.

Starting Half Position in COST Short

This is an equity short, it is 50% the size of a full position for me that is no more than 15% of portfolio before margin so it would be about 7.5%.

One reason is I'd consider adding to it on any strength, the other reason is it's not the highest beta stock, but I can average up the gains as short position gains are available right away to be used (at least some of them), whereas a long position you need to sell it before you can use the gains, this makes pyramiding a winning short a good strategy.

So for now, 50% position in COST, obviously with a wide stop, enough to be able to add to COST if it were to make new highs.

MCP Calls Update

MCP is in an intraday triangle, I'm hoping it will push through a momentum move to the upside, even though it is likely to be a head fake, I want to try to close the calls in to that momentum move on the upside.

Closing NFLX July $210 Call from Today

Quick Market Update

I'm not seeing that earlier improvement take a foot hold.

Closing Long URTY Equity position

This was more of a hedge, but I want to clean this up and I don't see much more profit potential

Opening TLT Aug $114 Calls

I don't know when TLT will move, but I think it already has the accumulation needed to do so from a while back, in fact most of 2013.

I want to be ready, plus it acted aggressively accumulating the dip off the intraday ($115+) level.

 3 min accumulation of the dip-leading positive.

15 min accumulation of the dip-that's aggressive and you know what the 60 min positive looks like.

There are ways to manage risk in options through different trading strategies, I try yo keep them very simple, Calls and Puts just so you know what I'm thinking, what my convictions are, plus I don't have time to find the best strike, expiration and strategy, I leave that to you.

However in this case of buying a call, the entire premium paid is the risk, no more, no less.

I intend on making the TLT position bigger than a spec position, whether I do that over days or a shorter period remains to be seen.

UNG is looking even better-but...

This may only be for a quick move to the upside, I mentioned I might have to close the shares added earlier, but I think if you wanted to add a little to UNG, now is the time, at least you should get an upside pop at minimum.

HYG is coming back now

Well that's a good lesson in, "You make the best decisions you can with the information you have". 

I never kick myself over something like this because we live at the right edge of the chart, the unknowable and from what I saw, I'd make the same choice again.

What is important is that these moves up hold and have 3C support, otherwise they'd be head fakes.

Quick Market Update

This is why I don't want to overreact, we usually will have the information we need before anything happens in price.

This will show how far the damage was spreading and how quickly in the QQQ and now how there's a renewed bullish effort taking hold, whether it can maintain a foothold remains to be seen.

 The negative divergence over the last few hours moved or migrated to the 3 min chart, it's still leading negative.

However, all new divergences start of the fastest charts and the 1 min is showing some healing after having been pretty ugly as well.

If this keeps up and the 3 min chart straightens out, we're still game on. For now I'm going to assume that is where we are unless I see something that convinces me otherwise.

I'm going to run through the watchlist to get a feel for the market via individual stocks as well as check whether any positions, bullish or bearish have set up.

HYG Calls P/L

As mentioned, I knew I'd take a loss here and there's still a decent chance HYG goes on to gain more ground, but I don't have proof that this is a high probability scenario, I'd rather take the loss now than a worse one later as HYG looks like this right now...

 This is intraday, but there's no longer charts backing this up, this is pretty much it. If a high probability set up came around, I'd take it, but I don't see it any time soon.

The cost basis was $.87 so at the fill of $.45, that's about a 50% loss, which is why these are speculative trades and smaller in size.

More importantly, HYG is a big part of the SPY arbitrage, without it the SPY will struggle badly and you know what the long term HYG chart looks like, as if the market should have already broken so I think this is very thin ice; either this "W" bottom is going to come together and make a strong move or we are at the edge of it failing.

I just don't understand the obvious Japanese manipulation as their averages were pounded until the Japanese government came out with a change to their Pension plan that benefitted stocks, then the Japanese markets shot up like a rocket, it was clear intervention.

I can only guess that it was either to support this "W" and really the move planned to take off from it, or it was simply managing the destruction as the Nikkei was set for a 5% 1-day loss, the biggest thus far. It was only a week ago that the Nikkei seemed unstoppable on its parabolic run, that's the thing about parabolic moves, they end badly.

****Thinking Out-loud

I definitely WOULD NOT post this if I didn't think it was a real possibility.

Last night I ended saying that it looks like we have a nice "W" bottom to move up from, but that I wasn't the only one who would have noticed it so I want to keep my eye on it to make sure its not a trap.

I can't say for sure it's a trap, but I don't see the charts progressing in the manner I'd expect. This is based on an hour or two of watching so I don't want to blow this out of proportion, but we are in an extremely volatile market and it can crack at any time.

In any case, I wanted you to know at least what thoughts are running through my head right now.

I'll update you as soon as I have something more solid myself.

I'm going to take a loss on this, but I'm closing HYG $94 Calls

Adding A Little UNG Long Equity Back

I'm going to bring UNG up to about half a full equity position size, I may add more later, I may sell these, it depends on how it acts, but there's a nice positive here.

TLT Treasuries, The Flight To Safety (and Collateral) Trade

Yes, banks need collateral so they can borrow from the biggest bank in the U.S.- the F_E_D.

TLT is also a flight to safety trade, I have said several times recently, "Something is Going On With TLT/Treasuries" and have expressed other comments along those lines.

In this morning's Watchlist update, I said this about TLT,

"I expect to accumulate in a range around $114 to $115-ish until the market move is over, then a big move up in TLT."

Other recent comments have included,

"sentiment changing as I believe TLT is going to surprise to the upside."

"I mentioned it last night that I didn't trust this move, it's too gravitational, too many people are sucked up in it which makes it the perfect boat to flip as everyone is lined up on one side."

You get the drift. It's my gut feeling that there's a big trade here, but how to leverage it and enter because I'd like to build a position just in case, but that can't be easily done with basic option strategies and to simply buy TLT wouldn't have enough ROE to make it worthwhile. I'm still thinking about this one, but here's some of the evidence. 

As far as that range goes...

 I said I though the range would be $114 to $115-ish, you can see right above $115 today TLT turned down, however overall there's a leading positive divergence. I checked the 30 year Treasury futures, /ZB and here's what I found.

The 5 min chart shows a leading positive divergence at the bottom of the range ($114 TLT area) and above the TLT $115 area you see a negative divergence, this isn't to sell off shares, it's to create and maintain a range as I talked about earlier (re: Ranges and 3C acc. / dist.).

 The 60 min TLT chart from negative at the top which we knew was being set up at the time to a relative positive, and then a stronger positive divergence. This is the typical way divergences form, next will be a leading positive and at 60 mins, that's a huge signal to go long TLT, which is a huge signal that the market will be in free-fall.

 This is the 30 year future 15 min chart showing a leading positive divergence (very similar to TLT)

And this is the daily 30 yr. futures, it's already leading positive, this is why I'd like to start building now.

In any case, I think this is a big trade, it's just a matter of how/when to enter and how to leverage the trade.

USO June $32.50 Call P/L

At the $1.26 fill the P/L came out to a +12.5% gain.

I have an open $33 USO call that's a bit smaller than this one , so "if" USO presents a nice target and high probability trade, I'd likely re-enter it. 

Closing 1 USO Call-June $32.50

It looks like the $USD is going to bounce, I think that's what the market is picking up so I'm taking the USO momentum and cashing in on that position, may re-open, I'll have to asses how much Call/Energy exposure I have open

Market Update

Actually what I just posted about AAPL I'd say applies to the entire market, pretty much verbatim.

AAPL

AAPL looks like it's about to see an intraday pullback, this is 1 min only. AAPL's longer or mid-term charts still have a lot of upside potential, but being AAPL just broke out of a range, it may try to shake lose some weak hands.

There goes USO

Why I Like MCP & NFLX Calls & What They Say About the Market

The fact is, most traders get "stock-picking" completely wrong or at least backwards, they pick the stock and then hope the market moves in the direction of their trade.

The largest gravitational pull on any stock's price is the market's direction itself, I'd say it accounts for about 65% of the stock's move. 

The Industry and Sub-Industry Groups are next, whether they are in rotation or not has a lot to do with how the stock performs. In the recent Homebuilder rally it wasn't 1 or 2 stocks in the industry group, it was a majority.

Least important is the actual stock itself other than stock specific events like earnings, news, etc.

The point is, start with the market, then refine to the sectors and then find the stock.

Here's what I see in these two and why it seems to back up the theory I have about a market "W" base launching an emotional strike against traders which it tries on Tuesday and failed.

 NFLX 5 min with a head fake move to the left right before the downside reversal which morphed in to a capitulation shakeout with a vertical drop that turned in to a rounding bottom and it looks like it already had a stop run/head fake move to the right below the yellow trrendline. Volume is right for the price pattern as well, but more importantly 3C is leading positive in a big way.

I may not hold this NFLX call through the entire possibility of a nice upside move because the volatility is just a killer with options right now, but I would likely keep coming back, hit and run, hit and run.

MCP

 MCP's 5 min chart shows a different type of accumulation pattern, the kind that few notice. This is what I compare to, "The kids in the room next door are a little too quiet", you just know they're up to something.

This is a tight rectangle trading range, this is one of the most often seen price patterns when it comes to accumulation or distribution. I believe the pattern is so tight because market makers or specialists (depending on where the stock is listed) are working an order that has a specific fill, like filling at VWAP, so as I pointed out in the market yesterday, once price runs above VWAP in an accumulation phase, the middle man (MM or Specialist) will let out a little supply or flash misleading quotes, work the bid/ask spread and do whatever it takes to halt price and send it back to the accumulation zone near the bottom. The same happens with distribution. These patterns are always small volume as they don't want to attract any attention.

It's not just retail or other institutional funds jumping in and driving prices up while they are trying to accumulate, but worse it's the predatory HFTs that seek out "Icebergs", which are big orders being filled in small increments as to not attract attention, like an iceberg only the tip is visible, the bulk is below the water line. So these HFTs will ping the market until they identify an iceberg and then they'll front run them forcing the institution to pay higher prices for the order as the HFT sells to them and in a way becomes a malevolent market maker.

MCP 15 min leading positive as well. I thought I'd point out the head fake moves just before reversals and at "A" a "Tweezer top" candle stick formation-even on a 15 min chart it works as a reversal pattern like it would on a daily chart-that's the fractal nature of the market.

In any case, I don't see how or why anyone would accumulate a bounce this large is they didn't think the market could support it.

GLD June $133 Call P/L

I suspected I'd take a loss on this one, but I'd rather take a small loss here and be able to enter a better position and make up for it than to watch this position just fall further and further behind with every successive correction. After all, it's hit and run month.

At the fill of $3.65, the position came out to be a -12.6% loss.

Closing GLD June $133

It will probably be at a loss, but I can make it up on a pullback in to the gap as the 15 min chart still shows a lot of upside potential.

Watchlist Update

I have a lot of assets, but most of you are interested in them. Keep in mind it took me 30 mins or so to go through all of them so some things may have changed already.

As for the market averages, there's a 1 min negative and in some 2-3 min negatives that are causing the pullback/correction I just posted a bit ago, however they still look to have gas in the tank. There's some rotation, the SPY doesn't look as strong as it did yesterday, I think Financial weakness in underlying trade has something to do with it and rotation. The IWWM looks stronger than yesterday and the Q's look the best.

In my view, all can move higher with little effort.

After that stick save in Japan last night, someone obviously wants this move to happen.

Here's a brief overview of assets on the WL:

HYG has been building 3C short term accumulation, it looks like it will move higher and support the market.

TLT I expect to accumulate in a range around $114 to $115-ish until the market move is over, then a big move up in TLT.

VXX so far is in line, I'll check again later, it is market supportive right now.

BEAV a core short position, is close to filling yesterday's gap-, it's probably in decent position here, but I might wait for the overall market unless I specifically confirm strong weakness ahead of the market.

UNG  looks like it "may" be repairing some damage, at least it did before the EIA Natural Gas report came out at 10:30 and volatility picked up. We'll wait for that to die down, but there's a chance it may start returning to a buy back.

COF is a possible short, there was a nice parabolic move this a.m. on the open, I'd like to see @ least $62.75 or > $63.50 would be even better to enter COF as a new short.

AMZN-in line so far this a.m., I think it has more upside to go, I'd like to see @ least $271.50, >$276 would be better and >$284 would be best to look at a new or add-to short position.

FDX looks like a rounding bottom, it doesn't have the best signals for a bounce. I'd like to see it in the $99->$103.25 area to consider a position there.

FAZ is building a big positive divergence that reaches out to the 60 min chart. It's not time to enter, but when it is, this is a decent proxy for a Financial short with 3x leverage.

XLF & XLK are both close to in line, slightly weaker- this may be why (XLF) the SPY doesn't look as good today, that would likely be rotation.

GS The short term charts are in line, I'd like to see >$165 for an add-to/new short position.

IBM is close to an add to, $210+ is the area, I'd like to see the market break down at the same time.

VXX is accumulating intraday, but these short term signals I believe are/were related to the market correction. VXX, where it counts, 30 min+, is exceptionally strong, I'd be looking for some basing and look to add to or start accumulating some of VXX or the 3x leveraged UVXY long, this is a play on a market break down.

COST Good thing we waited huh? I'd like to see it > $116, it has some VERY weak signals on the positive side so I might even consider adding some right here, but not a full position. COST would be near the top of my short, short list.

XOM >$93 is where I would want to see it to add.

GOOG  I suspect a bounce from the 5/23-present price formation (rounding) , I'm not interested in trying to buy the bounce, more interested in shorting it.

IOC  has seen insane bearish volatility, it may be giving us another chance to open nor add to existing shorts there- remember this is Energy so watch your correlations.

GLD  is in line so far and benefitting from a weaker $USD as is silver and oil. For now, I'll continue to hold the $133 call left over after closing the $130 yesterday

XHB-I'm looking for a bounce here, it's pretty sloppy, but I think a bounce in XHB would be worth waiting for and it would be on my radar.

USO looks to be getting ready to bounce, again the weaker $USD is helping USO, PMs and most risk assets.

Opening SMALL Spec Long in MCP June $6 Calls

MCP Quick Long Trade

MCP is pulling back a bit from the start of a run, it looks like it will run higher short term, a stop can be placed under the recent range, not at an obvious place.

Market Update

I'm going through every asset and will update all in a list next.

I expect an intraday correction from a parabolic opening, but I see more gas in the tank for the averages on the upside, so far we're still on track

Starting NFLX Call Again

June 20th/ $210. This is still speculative, but I think it pops to the upside for a quick trade.

Futures

This morning, this is all that really matters to me at this point...

 The SPY is set to open right where the "W" pattern left off.

Index futures are in line on intraday charts.

*This is an area where we want to be extra careful, I'm sure I'm not the only one who sees that "W" base, therefore there's always the possibility it is a trap. I'd think if it was, it would fire off partially at least before turning so we need to be on our toes and frosty.