New Video and New Trades Are Up

OIL

Across all versions of 3C, the 15 minute timeframe is where the accumulation seems to be occurring. The blue arrow represents price's trend lower and the while is 3c's trend higher, this represents positive accumulation. Most other shorter timeframes today show price and 3C in-line which is to say conforming price action and not telling us much. The dollar was higher today, so that would explain in part the weakness in oil, but it seems there may be another reason oil is under apparent accumulation. As I tell you, we usually find out when the information is no longer useful.

To see a trend clearly, I often use a longer chart like a weekly, this is a 3-day chart. We see a few important things here, one-the volume tends to rise-even subtle near bottoms and then we see a reversal of trend-compare each highlighted volume bar with price action after it. Next , even though oil was down today, it did not break important support that has been established. Last, under and over price are small blue arrows, each one is connected by the long blue arrows and it shows clearly we have a trend of higher highs and higher lows which is the definition of an uptrend. The are not huge knockout scores, but taken together a picture emerges of underlying strength in the trend.

This is not a guarantee, however it is a higher probability and that is what we look for in our trades, higher probabilities. Thus far, I don't see any real damage to the oil trade, but we must use risk management always as the market is very dynamic.

Interesting

I thought you might find this interesting. The blue small arrows show TICK Index accumulation on this custom indicator I created in StockFinder-both occur at the bottom of the "W" double bottom formation. The second one goes hand in hand with the 3C divergence I posted at 2:43 or thereabouts, the divergence is clearly around 2 p.m.-these two indicators have nothing in common.

The red arrow shows a negative divergence where prices backed off a bit, but overall, the index is higher now relatively speaking as illustrated by the long white arrow. With the TRIN above 2 it is likely we see some sort of strength at least early on tomorrow.

Afternoon Update

Well this divergence held, we have a breakout and it looks like the measured move will be met. The chart below is 5 minutes, so as the price pattern suggested, it was used as an accumulation zone. This is what I mean by charting and T.A. being fractal, this same bottom would occur on a daily chart stretching out over 6 months or more. Look for more upside from here.

I might let this run a bit more, but I would also start looking into short set ups that I can sell short into strength.

Another Update

Above you can see where we were on the last update, since then, considerable damage has been done to this divergence as you can see by the red arrow, however, we still have a relative positive divergence at the lower white arrow.

The price formation also looks a lot like a rounding double bottom.

Afternoon Update

This is the second well-formed divergence, the first was destroyed. If we get a breakout above the B.O. level, you can see the probable target, at least the pattern implied target, we could of course see the pendulum effect and have a move higher, or like the first divergence this one too can be consumed in bearishness.In any case, if it does breakout, it gives you a second chance to short or add if you feel you need to. Remember,you want to do that which does not come naturally, like shorting into strength. Your emotions are generally a reverse indicator.

Shorts For You Now

V S $74.11 possibly pick up some here and add on a break of $70.85

DBRN S initial stop is wide at $23.80 but as soon as it makes a new low that stop can come down substantially.

MSPD S stop at $7.10 I think it looks pretty solid right here.

CREE is triggering a short right now with a stop at $61.89

FNSR is triggering a short now with a stop above $14.63

SLG short with a stop at $59.61

DAN Short with a stop at $11.85

GPI Short $28.81

Don't forget about VECO-I think it's a short right here, it's on the list 8/17

Inverse ETFs: You buy these for short exposure, most are leveraged as well.

FAZ, EDZ, SRS, EEV, FXP, ERY,SSG, SMN, SPXU, SRTY, SQQQ, SDOW, TZA, MWN, BGZ,  DRV, SOXS (low volume)

I'll be bringing you more, but this is enough to fill out an entire portfolio.

Update 2

We have our first positive divergence forming, this may be an intraday bounce that lets you get better position on shorts or allows you to let go of any longs that are not performing well in this market. Thus far a notable exception has been RINO long.

This looks pretty real

GS is one you want to take a look at in this area as a potential short. I'll be listing others. Be careful with the size of the position if you already have SKF or FAZ.