Miners Trading System

Both systems are still long NUGT, but getting close to a potential crossover to DUST

We Can Only Hope So

Check out this story, if true, I think this will have a huge impact on 3C and we'll see some very clean and clear signals without the HFT churn. Oh, I just love thinking about the day!

"A Paranoid Trader is a Good Trader"

Or something like that...

So, obviously my compulsive side came out a little about this late day divergence on the 1/5 min charts; so I fired up StockFinder which has a longer historical base and looked at our current divergences and looked back at some historical divergences on the 5 min chart that were positive in an otherwise negative 3C trend. Most of what I found was from the early August downtrend or the August Op-Ex week fall in the markets and what I found was, maybe I'm a little too paranoid sometimes and that you always have to keep the bigger picture in mind when focusing in on a tight perspective.

Here are the charts...

 Here's the current DIA chart and 1 min positive divergence, I found a similar one on the Wednesday of Op-Ex week, the next day the market fell nearly 4 % (the divergence is at the white arrow, the next day is in either a red or green box depending on if it was up or down-obviously down in this case).

 Here's the current 5 min positive divergence all the way to the right, I also found that in historical perspective, this divergence is in the middle of one of the worst negative leading divergences we have seen since the market bottomed around Aug. 8th; that has to be taken in to consideration.

 Here's the historical peak from the start of the August downtrend. You can see (5) 5 minute positive divergences, all saw the next day down.

 Here's the current IWM 1 min positive divergence from this afternoon, and it's in the middle of the worst negative leading divergence on the chart.

 This is around the start of the August downtrend, Aug 1/2 being the nasty part of its start. There were (2) 5 min positive divergences, the first led to a flat day on the next day, the second gapped down and finished about unchanged, but I don't think the 5 min positive from the day before had much to do with the finish, so the important part is it still gapped down. Then a very positive 5 min divergence on Aug 1st, leading positive in fact, and then the start of one of the worst days down following that positive divergence.

 Here's the QQQ's current 1 min positive divergence from today, also in the worst negative leading divergence on the chart.

 Here's today's late day 5 min positive divergence...

 We see a very strong 5 min positive divergence in leading position on Aug. 1st and then a nasty day down on August 2nd.

 Here's the SPY's current 1 min positive divergence

 Here's today's 5 min positive divergence, also in a leading negative divergence and barely visible on the historical chart.

Rolling the history back a bit, we see 2 5 min positives that led to a flat day and an up day, the second was the up day, but that was a quite large 5 min positive. We also see 2 that led to down days.

So, I think there's not a lot of historical precedent to get too paranoid-(sorry, it's my nature). Those divergences could very well have simply led to the flat range at the end of the day and even if they led to a gap up, I think putting them in context by looking at the historical charts says what I said earlier, in the big picture, they are kind of irrelevant.

End of day divergence

This end of day short term positive divergence has still got me wondering because I'm seeing it in multiple places like XLf, XLE, all of the averages.

 SPY 1 min-it's entirely possible that the divergence was just signaling a consolidation rather then a bounce, as you can see momentum to the downside faded during the divergence.

 On most charts it can be found on the 5 min too. So this could imply a bounce or some early strength tomorrow.

Because the 10/15 minute charts deteriorated even more today, I didn't change my holdings and kept my shorts in place.

I could speculate as to a lot of things, such as a solid NFP number tomorrow that gaps the market higher, but then traders realize it isn't good for QE3 hopes and it becomes a "sell the news" event, or it could simply be as I stated under the 1 min chart and have just caused a consolidation. Either way, I don't think it changes much as the 10-15 and even 30 minute charts are too far gone in to the negative leading divergences to change the ultimate outcome.

When I do my research for the nightly wrap I'll see f there's anything else that hints at a cause. However as I often say, a consolidation implied by a short term positive divergence can take place through movement of price (i.e.: a bounce) or simply through time (i.e.: a trading range-which is what we ultimately saw).

Just an interesting little bit of acton that should be resolved tomorrow morning.

Strange EOD divergence

 QQQ 1 min

 QQQ 5 min

QQQ 10 min

Sometime these divergences just create trading ranges like we saw at the EOD...

For Intraday/Day Traders-SPY Stop

This Trend Channel stop has held the downtrend all day.

Click on the chart for a larger view.

Market Update

It looks like an EOD intraday bounce is brewing...

 DIA 1 min

 IWM 1 min

 QQQ 1 min

SPY 1 min

USO/Oil

 FXE (Euro) 1 min leading negative divergence-suggests strength n the dollar, which is typically bad for oil prices.

 FXE 15 min negative divergence

 UUP/$USD 1 min positive divergence

 USO 15 min leading negative divergence

 USO 10 min leading negative divergence

 USO 5 min leading negative divergence

 USO 1 min relative positive divergence-intraday USO may have some upside, which would be helpful in getting better positioning and reducing risk on a USO short or buying DTO or ERY-leveraged inverse ETFs.

 DTO 15 min leading positive divergence

ERY 10 min leading positive divergence.

Could 3C Be Telegraphing Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls?

I've had several recent conversations today with members wondering if this may in fact be the case. Lets take a look at some charts.

 Today the SPY breaks below yesterday's close and is red on the day at a loss of .90% thus far.

 We have actually been in the midst of the reversal for the last few days if you look at the chart above.

 3C on the 15 min chart has been strongly telegraphing a leading negative divergence for a couple of days, from the time we get a 15 min leading divergence to the actual decline, is often within a day or two, but yesterday the market managed to hold together. We know Wall Street sets up the game board in their favor weeks and even months ahead, but is it possible that they have the leaked numbers already? Yes it is, and would they use that to initiate the real depth of the reversal 3C has been predicting to get the maximum bang for their buck? The answer is, "Yes".  I and we have seen it many times before with all kinds of reports and economic data".

Here is the indicator I worked on yesterday to give you an idea of the power of a divergence. The first decline was the August Op-Ex week, when on Wednesday I said, "Look for a sharp sell-off over the next two days"-that sell-off came the next day. However, look how 3C had already been telegraphing the weakness to come and how it rounds over around the time of the break from distribution to decline.

The short answer is yes, I think it is very possible that they have leaked numbers or inside information about the jobs report tomorrow. And as we saw with the bounce, even when there was bad news, Wall Street had set their cycle in motion and the market ignored the bad news just to keep rising.

This s how much control and advance knowledge Wall Street has, this s how un-even the playing field really is. Hopefully 3C gave you enough notice to set your portfolio the way you want t for this next cycle.

Market Update

 DIA 1 min shows the distribution into the move up this a.m. and a little accumulation earlier.

 DIA 5 min Also distribution at the ISM bump and a relative positive divergence inside a leading negative divergence.

 DIA 10 min this chart has added a bunch of leading negative downside

 IWM 1 min again a head fake of sorts at the ISM report and a leading negative divergence

  IWM 5 min shows some recent accumulation

  IWM 10 min continues to add to the leading negative divergence

 QQQ 1 min continues to add to the leading negative divergence as well as distribution at the ISM bump up

 QQQ 5 min The main theme is the leading negative divergence

 QQQ 10 min a mall leading positive divergence within a larger negative leading divergence

 SPY 1 min a hint of a little accumulation

 SPY 5 min another hint of some short term intraday accumulation

 SPY 5 min the bigger picture is still of a leading negative divergence

SPY 10 min-adding to the leading negative divergence

GLD/SLV-"Mums the word"

You may have noticed I haven't commented much on SLV/GLD over the last day or two. 3C is a great indicator that often gives us an advantage, but smart money has to be moving. Sometimes people want  3C charts for certain trades they have on and I have to tell them, "It's just not telling us anything"; this could be because of transition or it could be because smart money simply isn't making any big moves that would show up. When training people with 3C, I tell them, "If the divergence doesn't jump off the chart, if you have to search for it, then it's not a high probability trade"; that's been the case with SLV and GLD lately. I actually just took off a long silver position simply because I didn't see the edge in the trade.

I think correlations on both PM's are still up in the air and as I have noted for several months, this was something I expected to happen. It has happened with gold as the dollar correlation has fallen completely apart.

As you know, I don't consider myself a Guru, if I was then I would have a solid opinion on both that I was SURE of. That's not my job, to promote myself as a GURU, my job is to help you find an edge as a student of the ever changing market.

Any way, here are the charts, you'll see there just isn't a consistent edge to be found on either GLD or SLV so for now, I stay away until there is.

 GLD 15 min, the recent green area doesn't tell us anything about where GLD is going.

 The 5 min charts had some great calls, but again in green, who knows where this s heading?

 The 2 min charts have made some short term calls, but without confirmation in the longer charts, there's no consistency to any call.

 The same applies on the 1 min chart of GLD

SLV

 This chart looks slightly better then inline and things made more sense a few days ago when I put on a long silver trade.

 The 10 min chart s mostly in line, so it tells us nothing about changes in the trend.

 The 5 min chart is negative, but again, without confirmation on other charts, it's just one chart and 3C s meant for confirmation, thus the name "3C"=compare, compare, compare or you could substitute "confirmation"

The 1 min chart is simply in line telling us nothing about the future.

I WILL keep an eye on these charts though and as soon as something develops, you'll be the first to know.