Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Feeling more confident now

Take a look at this post from Trade Guild-I feel a lot better about ll the trades from yesterday (at a significant discount-forget the stops, we'll reset them) except the first two. All the UltraShort and the trades I added intraday today are all back in serious play, this is the clear signal I've been looking for:

http://www.trade-guild.net/2010/02/mighty-dollar-might-and-market.html

A Nice Disorderly Market

Well we get paid to take chances, but the difference between what we do and gambling is to only take those chances when the odds are in our favor. If you bought any on the Ultrashorts I mentioned last night, I think in time, you will find that you got in at an excellent price.

The market did not react the way I hoped it would, but that's not unusual-I can't expect a perfectly clean down trend that is textbook. However, it's important you know more about the situation so go to Trade-Guild.net and READ THIS POST.

To those who renewed your subscriptions recently-Thank you very much.

For right now, we are going to sit tight and see what this market does tomorrow as the trend is in question and we want to always be on the side of the trend. The shorts I posted intraday today I do believe were actionable today and if you got in and need a second opinion, let me know. Our Gold Short from last week broke that big bear flag and made a nice gain today. There were several others as well-SSN long was up again.

Email me with questions.

AMZN

This is also looking like a good short here with a fairly tight stop at $121.19-feel free to adjust, but it's not performing with the rest of the NAZ100 plus it has a top pattern and a bear-flag like formation.

MOT

Is looking good here as well for a short, whether an add-too or opening a new position, the stop would be in the area of $7.77

DTO

DTO gapped below our stop, but I will say at these levels it does makes sense to try a quick long right here and now and maybe have a stop under whatever today's lows will be-ON THE CLOSE ONLY (for the stop)

New Trades are up-

Make sure to check the last sheet, for about the last week, there are still excellent shorts there.

I've added some Ultra and 3X ETFs, I think everything looks good here and now on all of them-they are all longs and we buy at market on the open and use strict risk management/position sizing-Read the 2% rule.

Charts:
The S&P-500 is still a long way off from doing any technically significant damage-it would have to break above the red trend line and I don't think so.


Same with the Dow 30


However, the Q's are very close to changing their sub-intermediate trend, this week will be interesting. My feelings are the probabilities are they will run the stops intraday and close below on weakness.


The 5 minute 3C has done a good job tracking the turns in the Q's and it's not looking good right now for the bulls.


Here a longer 10 min 3C on the sPY shows a little of the same, but more neutral-I think because it was a long weekend and the Greek situation (see Trade-Guild.net) could have gone either way.


And here's a 10 min on the Q's and it is ambiguous at best-it seems to be leaning toward confirmation with recent weakness. The longer term 3C charts are all over the place, this is why I think it was the Greek debacle over the weekend.