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My Trend Channel

Lets not forget my Trend Channel which has held all of the recent swings-this is my proprietary indicator.

 DIA

 IWM

 QQQ

SPY

A break of the lower channel signifies a change in trend.

Bollinger Bands Indicating a directional move

 XLF

 DIA

IWM

 QQQ

SPY

UUP/$USD Update

In the short term, my earlier concerns about the dollar/Euro have started to abate-in the short term meaning over the next day or so.

 The second positive divergence in UUP 1 min

 a positive divergence in UUP 5 min

And a relative positive divergence in UUP 10 min.

My Gut

I'm sticking with my shorts and adding a few, if you don't have a lot of short side exposure, I think this area makes sense from a risk/reward perspective, you can always have a stop a few percent higher. Since I think this is probably going to end up as a fall of a day to several days, I have chosen to use leveraged ETFs/inverse ETFs, plus my short on RIMM.

IWM Update

Something looks very wrong with this market, I'm holding my shorts.

 IWM 1 min

Look at that IWM 5 min chart!

And a slight change in the $USD/EUR

 The first $USD positive divergence today

 EUR/FXE 1 min negative

And now a 5 min negative relative divergence....

When in Doubt, Check the Bellwethers AAPL

I think we can safely say AAPL is one of the biggest bellwethers and the results are a bit surprising in how little AAPL has moved and more surprising in how negative it is.

 1 min negative

 5 min negative

 10 min negative

And a 15 min leading negative divergence!

VXX-Another Inverse Correlation

The VXX has an inverse relationship with the market, when the VXX is up, the market is down, when the VXX is down, the market is up. Whle there's been distribution in the market in to higher prices, there has been accumulation in the VXX in to lower prices, exactly what you would expect to see for the correlation.

 VXX starts a leading divergence this afternoon on the 1 min and has been in positive territory all day.

The 5 min is showing a pretty well developed positive divergence.

Not sure what this is about or if the $USD / market correlation can be broken, but this is another sign that the market seems to want to head lower shortly.

Italian Vote Passes

Here's what the Euro did in response...

It passed in the last 15 minutes or so and this is a 5 min chart.

Not much!

Example

 IWM 5 min continues negative

 QQQ 5 min is leading negative

 QQQ 10 mn has turned negative

 SPY 10 mn has turned negative

And the DIA-has turned negative on a 15 min chart!

A Dichotmy

This is an interesting dichotomy, the market is rising in to longer term distribution, meaning it is looking lke the fall will be greater as I explained, but the Italian Austerity vote looks set to send the Euro higher, presumably the dollar lower, which is equity positive...

FXE 5 min

GLD Update

The last GLD post suggested something new and meaningful, the only chart that was not looking good was the 1 min chart...

now take a look...

a positive and leading positive divergence on GLD 1 min.

What a difference 20 minutes makes.

Trade Idea-TZA (LONG)

This again is a short term trade of a day maybe a few, but look at the recent accumulaton in TZA-WOW!

 1 min 3C

5 min 3C

A few interesting points...

Take a look at GLD.. Remember, GLD has been a safe haven trade...

 The 15 min chart is showing a pretty strong positive and leading positive divergence

 The 5 min chart as well

Only the intraday 1 min chart has been showing weakness as the market has been moving up today.

Now the IWM...

 The IWM 1 min is quite negative

 The 5 min is now in a leading negative divergence

And now even the 10 min is going negative...

Earlier I assumed we'd see a fade of the gap on early signals, but as they develop, we may be setting up for a move down that is larger then I anticipated.

I like RIMM Right in this area for at least a fade short

RIMM Update

RIMM too looks to be wedging a bit, not as obvious as the IWM.

 1 min

 5 min

10 min

IWM Follow Up

There's a good chance we are looking at that IWM ascending triangle head fake I mentioned in THIS IWM post a few minutes ago.

Financials Intraday update

 FAS Financial Bull 3X s seeing some intraday negative movement

 As FAZ, the Financial Bear 3x, is seeing some positive movement.

XLF financials are also seeing some negative divergence on the 1 mn chart

As far as sector rotation intraday, financials have been a leader as well as energy. Tech has been rather weak as well as Staples, Utilities, HealthCare, and Discretionary.

SPY Intraday support

SPY intraday support, which is also the same area as the 9/2 highs/resistance. Note the RSI negative divergence as well.

IWM Wedging

I should have pointed this out as well, the IWM wedging in a bearish ascending wedge.

When these patterns are very obvious, Technicians expect them to break straight down, however they will usually pull an upside breakout first as a head fake and knock out some early shorts betting on the pattern before falling.

Market Update

It look like the head fake was just too irresistible and why not with nice resistance like that formed?

 DIA 1 min continues lower in to higher price highs.

 The 5 min is negative on a relative divergence, the two relative points are in the small red squares around price.

 Ironically, the IWM which is up the most, looks the worst on this 1 min chart, in a negative leading divergence.

 The 5 min doesn't look much better.

 Actually maybe the QQQ 1 min looks worse?

 And another negative relative divergence on the QQQ 5 min chart

 The SPY's 1 min negative divergence continues to build despite higher prices.

As does the 5 min.

We are probably getting lose to a reversal, watch around the intraday support for some volatility.