Daily Wrap

As per usual when volatility picks up, the charts are moving faster than I can capture and post them, but you'll see that our initial forecast looks to be right and the more specific to today, The Thin Facade of Price is Giving Way to Reality post, looks especially to be right which is just building on top of the Mass Psychology concepts that were first put forward and every step along the way the market has done as we expected and giving us confirmation before hand, during and clearly after.

I think the A.M. UPDATE from this morning taken with the The Thin Facade of Price is Giving Way to Reality both put a fine point and perhaps an exclamation mark on our forecast that started based entirely on Mass Psychology Friday December 12th which was added to on Saturday December 13th, with evidence showing up as futures opened Sunday December 14th and price action on December 15th and 16th.

This is ES, this is what I'd call a facade or a veneer as explained earlier today in The Thin Facade of Price is Giving Way to Reality.

The divergence for the misdirection in price or the "appearance" of something more substantial than what is actually there, was set up this morning pre-market as you can see with the positive divergence before the cash market open and then distribution through the end of the day, but more importantly on stronger charts.

In other words, this was nothing more than illusion hiding something a lot more dangerous and much more ugly. Take a look at TICK data for today (NYSE)...

I don't think this is because of a light volume day considering price percentage moves, however at +750 max range highs, this was a VERY THIN MARKET WITH THE CLOSING ACTION MOVING WAY OUT OF THE DAILY RANGE AND IN TO THE -1100. Unlike volume, the TICK (advancers minus decliners) has NOTHING to do with the poor liquidity.volume of the holiday season.

As mentioned, TF/Russell 2000 futures have been showing distribution all day, so the price action to the upside is only more useful in selling/short selling in to price strength which was CLEARLY the theme today.

NQ/NASDAQ 100 futures which earlier I had "billed" as the tie breaker between the early positive ES charts and early very negative TF charts, however NQ came in almost perfectly in line, so it was a strange day early on. However in to the close, look at this accumulation and move higher, a purposeful move. This is NOT the strong accumulation of a move meant to be held, this is the "Steering" divergence type of move. Enough intraday accumulation to get NQ/NASDAQ 100 to make a move higher in to the close, but look at how those higher prices were handled as far as underlying/institutional trade...

QQQ's short term 1 min "FACADE" or "Veneer" with CLEAR distribution once the Q's moved ABOVE $105.

As far as what's beyond that "veneer" or Facade, it has been very clear on charts as early as the very next timeframe, 2 min.

I know you probably don't relate to the wood-working analogy, but as I mentioned, the actual wood veneer which is paper backed and very thin, sometimes 1/40th of an inch, is VERY easy to sand through revealing the paper behind in what we call a "burn" mark as you have sanded or burned through the "veneer" leaving an ugly mark.

Today's 1 min chart action is very reminiscent of that analogy, the facade or veneer was thin enough that it actually burned through and revealed distribution on even the shortest timeframe meant to conceal the uglier mess that the market is below the veneer.

If we look at the slightly longer charts that will no longer conceal the ugliness behind the facade, the 2 min IWM is VERY clear as to exactly what is happening, this is pure distribution.

The SPY 1 min nearly perfectly in line, however...

Once again just dig a little deeper and the 2 mi chart reveals what is really going on.

The DOW which is of little interest to me as far as trading, it has had a better looking 3C chart as long only fund managers are going to move to the Dow as they did in 2007. The Dow was one of the last to decline and the decline wasn't nearly as sharp as the other averages, however as is plainly visible, the 2 min chart shows VERY clear distribution and specifically in to the last 2-days.

As for Leading Indicators...

 VXX/Short term VIX futures, way outperformed the SPX today (SPX prices in green are inverted to show the normal correlation). Obviously the protection of VIX futures is being sought out which is interesting given this is the last day (with the T+3 rule) for Window Dressing and the first day of the Santa Rally.

 Spot VIX also absolutely outperformed the correlation vs the SPX (green).

Considering all of the major averages close up today, the fact that Spot did also shows the depths of hedging or protection being sought in VIX/Puts.

Recent Dojis and stars in Spot VIX with the addition of a green close today shows the bearish nature of price although the thing facade of price is likely obscuring the true state of the market for most.

 TLT, as expected as a market lever and exhausted market lever, also outperformed the SPX correlation (again SPX prices (green are inverted to better show the correlation) vs the normal correlation to the far left.

As I said on F_O_M_C Wednesday, this is the exact same type of action in yields seen as the last two meetings both saw initial bullish knee jerk reactions completely retraces (with the September meeting leading to the October lows).

30-year yields are leading the SPX lower, the same as the last two F_O_M_C knee jerk reactions.

 This is TLT's near term intraday action today vs the SPX (inverted SPX prices).

Credit signaling a fall in the market...

 This is the most often used lever among credit products to ramp the market. As I said the week of December 12th when we first put forward the theory of a market bounce the following week, "There's only 1 reason to accumulate HYG, to ramp the market".

Today HYG fell sharply at the close and should continue to lead the SPX lower.

High Yield Credit also has been refusing to participate in moving any further with the SPX.

 High Yield Junk credit also selling off vs the SPX.

And PIMCO's HY fund, also selling off vs the SPX (green).

And the longer term view of the same...

As for the short term, EVERYTHING IS FLASHING OVERBOUGHT.

Of the 9 S&P sectors, all nine closed green with the DEFENSIVE Utilities leading at +1.23% and the Industrials lagging at +.21%.

Of the 238 Morningstar groups we track, a huge 226 of 238 closed green today, BOTH INDICATIVE OF A SHORT TERM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION POINTING TO A CLOSE LOWER ON MONDAY,  which fits with our Santa Claus rally SCENARIO.

There was a Dominant Price/Volume Relationship Among all 4 major Averages, it was Price Up/Volume Down WHICH IS THE MOST BEARISH OF THE 4 RELATIONSHIP.

The Dow finished with a stout 25 of 30 stocks, the NDX-100 with 83, the Russell 2000 with a dominant 1371 and the SPX with a whopping 403 or the 4 possibilities. Between the S&P sectors, the Morningstar groups and Our Dominant Price/Volume Relationship of the component stocks in the major averages, EVERY SINGLE ONE IS POINTING TO SHORT TERM OVERBOUGHT OR REVERSAL  just as the candlesticks are, the leading indicators and 3C signals.

Have a GREAT weekend, I wish you plenty of happiness and peace, but come next week, I think our Crazy Ivan theory that has thus far fulfilled 2 of 3 expectations, fills the third and final expectation first forecast on December 12th and having been exactly dead on ever since.

Again, have a great weekend.

Market Update

Interestingly, some things have changed in intraday futures, like ES looks a lot more negative now, TF remains VERY negative, but NQ/NASDAQ 1000 futures look like they are running in to the close with a predetermined positive divegrence, maybe to create that Igloo/Chimney top as price action (as seen earlier on the Daily charts) has a rounding look since the move up on 12/17 that was forecast on 12/12. It seems to be an obvious run of some limit/stop orders @ $105 and is already showing distribution in to the move.

All averages in fact are showing deeper intraday distribution in to the close and scratching beyond the thing veneer or facade at 2 min or longer charts and the damage is more pronounced, this includes the DIA.

I'll post charts ASAP, but I think the market is failing here in the last day of Window Dressing and the first of the Santa Rally as posted way back on 12/15 or so as things became more clear.

MCP Update

Today is one of those days in which MCP makes a move and I think, "Perhaps there is more to this as I have suspected".

In any case, this is a long, sorted story of a company that needed financing, got it, has some looks like there's more to the story and it's the only long I personally hold right now. On many occasions I have nearly sold it to put my resources to best use in whichever asset I feel is going to generate the best return, but there has been something about the way MCP acts with what I call, "Glimpses" ever now and then, they are fleeting, often you have to see them as they happen. It's glimpses such as these that first told us that the F_E_D was looking for a way out of QE on the very day they announced QE3 and the market seemed to pick up on it too because the knee jerk lasted about 2 hours before a question was asked that made it seem the F_E_D was already looking for an exit from extraordinary accommodation, I remember the press conference with Bernanke, I don't remember the exact question, but the gist of it and I remember the exact time, 2:24 p.m. on September 13th, 2012 when the market topped on the knee jerk move upon Bernanke answering that question, it made a slight intraday move higher the next day and then traded down over -8% the next 3 months and didn't see that price level again until the new year UPON THE RELEASE OF QE3!

The few times we have found F_O_M_C leaks that were extremely obvious, it was a glimpse that you would have never found looking back on a chart unless you saw it at the time it occurred in the context of the market at that moment.

In any case, MCP reminds me of that now.

 This break at the yellow arrow triipped up a lot of stops. While not a very big move below support, traders tend to put their stops right at EXACT support/resistance which is a mistake as support and resistance are created via emotional constructs and are much more appropriately viewed as areas rather than specific points, although they do react like specific points because of human Mass Psychology, kind of the same reason retailers never sell anything for $10.00, but use $9.99 instead, the human mind gravitates toward whole numbers, obvious areas and typically , exact support/resistance levels which makes them easy to run based on Mass Psychology alone, forget about NASDAQ's TotalView or NYSE's OpenBook, ArcaBook, etc. that let you see the depth of the market, which are available to retail, Institutional view of the orders on the books and that of market makers and specialists are vastly superior. The point is, even without these sources of the depth of a market, Mass Psychology alone tells you where the orders are stacked up as you see them hit at the yellow arrow and volume swell.

However look at today's 10+% move and the volume thus far which I'm not comparing to Wednesday's half day, but rather Tuesday's full day and today in which even fewer carbon based traders are at their desks, volume is increasing.

 I still believe something longer term is going on in MCP as this 2 hour chart seems to continue to suggest.

If we go by the concept of "Wherever you first see a 3C divegrence, price will surpass that area, just on this year's trade, that would suggest a move well above $6.00.

 The 5 min chart has more detail and interestingly has been increasing in its leading positive divegrence since that move below support, which has the smell of big accumulation at low prices,  this is similar to what I saw during the 2000 Tech Bubble explosion when Home Builders were showing clear accumulation, years in advance of the next bull market led by Home Builders and Consumer Spending based on the rising equity of people's homes.

 Near term here's what the 2 min chart looks like.

And the 1 min chart shows a slight pullback from a recent previous intraday high and the accumulation of the pullback leading to today's move.

The DAILY Trend Channel has a stop out of the down-trend at >$.86, which means ABOVE $.86 on the close. This would show a significant change of character suggesting the trend is about to change.

The recent high that we pulled back from, nearly broke above the Trend Channel we are even closer now.

Also the 10-22-day moving averages have defined resistance on the upside, so I'd set alerts for > $.86 as well as a move above the 22-day moving average.

Enjoy

It's a bit of a slow day, although I do have some other charts coming.

My girlfriend Andrea who has taken up the job of completing our new website, which has taken way too long (she's made more progress in a week than my web designer in several months), had her mom come down to spend Christmas with us and after 15 years of service in the military as a Black Hawk pilot (Andrea) and another 5 or so years flying EMS Trauma Helicopters, this is the first time her mom has ever had a chance to go up with her (at her new job working for a news station). What a cool Christmas.

 Andrea and mom...

The Bell Ranger as they take off to cover a news story.

I can only imagine how much Andrea has been waiting for this moment.

The Thin Facade of Price is Giving Way to Reality

For those not familiar with the term, "Facade" or "Veneer"  (this is not condescending, we have many members in many countries and English is a second language and a quite difficult one in many respects as compared to some others that are 100% phonetic), a "Facade" is usually the front of a building that conceals what is behind it, thus it may look very large or lavish, but what lies just behind it may be much less grand or it may be described as "Outward appearance used to conceal a less credible or less pleasant reality".

A "veneer" is very similar in meaning. In my many years building custom, high end furniture, we used wood veneers which were a very thin slice of the wood on a paper backing, usually about 1/28th to 1/40th of an inch in thickness or about 0.907 to 0.635 millimeters, in other words, very thin and used to conceal the less desirable substrate, often plywood.

In my time owning my own woodworking shop and managing a high-end shop for 9 years, I built and finished the following...

 This is part of a large job done on Fisher Island in Miami, well over a million dollars in wood working, build out, and upholstery. The wood you see is a dyed Bird's Eye maple VENEER, a very beautiful wood, but a very thin slice of it covering plywood.

Even the small table which I called the "Bumble Bee" is a thin veneer and while elegant looking, try handing this down to your children and grand children, a couple of good knocks would tear right through the thing facade or too much moisture would cause it to wrinkle or crack the finish. 

This is the same job, it looks very elegant on the outer surface, but behind that, there's nothing interesting or even lasting.  This is a facade or veneer.

By contrast, the piece below is much less elegant, but will last many lifetimes.

 This is a "Low-Boy" TV stand I built for myself from SOLID African Bubinga (reddish colored wood) and African Wenge (Brown wood with black stripes).

 This isn't a great picture, but you get a better look at the piece. The Wenge doors in the middle, the darker wood can be seen below...

This is the door for the piece above.

This IS NOT Veneer, this is solid wood and high quality, almost $1,0000 in raw lumber alone, BUT I built this well over 15 years ago and it looks as good today as the day I built it because it is solid, there's no fine layer of thin, exotic wood. I can hand this down to my children (if I had any), grand-children, and so on. There's no reason this could not last centuries, but as elegant as the work above in the first photos are, I can guarantee that if the work is still there, it has warped, cracked, scratched through the wood surface, rippled the finish (urethane/lacquer) and will never be handed down over decades, much less centuries.

What is my point? I like quality, you do it right the first time and you won't have to do it a second or third time.

For our purposes though, the charts are showing the thin layer of price action , the veneer or facade is already crumbling interestingly on the first day of the traditional Santa Claus Rally and the last day of Window Dressing when considering the Trade + 3 days for settlement before year's end.

From the earlier futures, here's what they look like now...

 The price move up in ES/SPX futures since the cash open is like a thin veneer or facade with the "undesirable" reality being the divergence that created this move is a very small flat area of trade in pre-market (white), which is not a large or strong area of accumulation, thus the price action to the upside is not sustainable considering how small the divergence to the left actually is.

TF shows continued 3C distribution in to "higher" Russell 2000 prices, distribution occurs in to higher prices, rarely does smart money sell as prices are declining, the large quantity of shares due to their large positions would tip the supply/demand equation unfavorably toward more supply than demand and send prices lower, which would not be beneficial to smart money whether they are selling the shares we saw accumulated almost 2 weeks ago for a short term move higher or whether they are selling short,  both trades are sales.

And NQ/NDX 1 min futures with a small positive divegrence to the far left and a negative divegrence in to this morning's higher prices, but how much higher are we really moving?

Here are the daily charts of the SPY, IWM and QQQ.

 The SPY daily chart shows the strong momentum created by the Russell 2000's bear trap which we can not only verify through 3C distribution in to higher prices and 3C accumulation of prices below the range on the Monday and Tuesday in which IWM/Russell 2000 prices fell below the 6 trading week range for the first time, but we can also tell from the strongest small cap (Russell 20000) short squeeze in 3 years on the first two days of the move higher.

Since then, the SPY has done VERY little in a tight range (orange).

 The IWM shows the 6 trading week range that moved approximately -0.10% over the 6 trading week period, the first head fake move lower that lured in shorts as 6 week support broke which shorts chased and the bear trap (first half of the Crazy Ivan shakeout) was set, setting the stage for the strongest move in Most Shorted/Small Caps in 3 years. Remember the week just prior was the strongest move down for a weekly move in 3 years.

At #2 we have the forecasted/predicted move from December 12th, a breakout ABOVE the 6-week range that was also forecasted to be a head fake move or bull trap, luring in long traders as price broke above the resistance level of the 6 week trading range, just as the break below support lured in short traders and created the upside short squeeze momentum. My forecast on December 12th was for this move above the range's support to occur in to distribution, confirming a head fake move or false/failed breakout which would give the market downside momentum the very same way the initial break below the range created a bear trap and upside market momentum, strongest 5-day move up in 3 years.

This is to say nothing of the change in character via increasing volatility which should be equated with the change in character of a Channel Buster just like BABA, which initially looked like a stronger, more volatile move to the upside, but ended with a stronger move to the downside. The volatility or change in character was the warning sign as we said on November 10th (BABA) that was the red flag telling us something was about to change in BABA's trend as it did.

And the QQQ daily chart showing a bear flag at the yellow arrows which led to the strongest weekly move down in 3 years (for the Dow, 2.5 years for the SPX) and in orange, the recent change of character again since the move up we forecasted on December 12th which was , again, to be a failed breakout/head fake move.

The thin facade of price action is giving way to the uglier reality beneath the thin surface...

Here's the IWM's action confirming what was forecasted....

 IWM 1 min with some slight accumulation in to Wednesday's close as prices fell and a gap up in to the first day of the Santa Claus rally, something I said in mid-December was taken for granted by traders, they just assume it will occur and as such,  convincing traders the Santa Claus rally has started with the price action leading up to it and today, the first day of the seasonal rally, would lead traders to believe the January Effect (also a bullish period when new money comes in to the market) would cause traders not only to go long because of their belief that a Santa Claus Rally is a certainty as it usually has been, but reinforcing that with a breakout above the Russell 2000's well formed and very obvious 6-trading week range, all but setting a near perfect PSYCHOLOGICAL (mass psychology) Bull Trap which could be turned on longs and used to send the market downward very quickly, similar to the initial move up's short squeeze.

 The 2 min IWM chart is also confirming cracks in the facade of near term trade and the head fake move as once again we see accumulation of Wednesday's opening lows and a leading negative divegrence migrating to a stronger 2 min chart. Also note again, the range just like ES in pre-market in which it saw accumulation,  these flat ranges that seem to be dull trading/price action are where we often see the heaviest underlying trade whether accumulation in ES's case pre-market today or distribution in the IWM's case in a flat range from later this morning and now.

This 5 min IWM chart shows the accumulation just after the forecast of a move higher on December 12th (Friday). As of December 15th, the next trading day we started to get evidence to support our forecast as you can see, but that accumulation leading to a move higher is fading in to stronger IWM distribution now that we have crossed above the resistance area of the 6-week trading range.

 A more detailed 3 min chart shows the distribution in to the worst weekly performance in 3 years (orange arrow) and at "F" our forecast for a move higher on December 12th above the IWM's range and distribution once the move higher crosses above the resistance level when and where technical traders will buy the market on "confirmation" of a breakout, just as shorts shorted the "confirmation" of the breakdown just days before when support of the 6 week range was broken on Monday and Tuesday (December 15th and 16th).


This is the confirmation we look for in a head fake move and more specifically a Crazy Ivan shakeout as both areas have shown 3C confirmation as expected.

And the longer, highest probability IWM 60 min chart with the range showing distribution through it, causing the weakness that made it impossible for the IWM to break out to the upside, even though that is an 80% probability before any downside reversal. It took the head fake, false break down/ bear trap to create the momentum (short squeeze) to get to the upside breakout as well as  the use of all 4 levers, (HYG), Treasuries/Yields, VIX/VIX futures and USD/JPY).

As for the Q's

 1 min QQQ with the same late day accumulation in to price weakness Wednesday at the close. Confirmation on the thin, 1 min chart, like a veneer and some weakness showing through...

At the 2 min chart it is very obvious from the accumulation of the head fake move lower to the far left to the distribution of a head fake higher with an increased pace the last 2-days including today.

QQQ 3 min from our forecast for a move higher on the 15th (green) to the accumulation for the move (white) and the distribution confirming the head fake move (red).

And since the October cycle lows in which we forecast a very strong move up which would be followed by a stronger move down, you can see the accumulation of the October lows when everyone was bearish, some sentiment indicators were at their most bearish on record, yet we were calling for a super strong, "Face ripping" rally days before the market even tried to put in a low/bottom.

Then the distribution through the stage 3 top or rounding "Igloo", our forecast for a move higher on the 15th (white) and accumulation with distribution in to the move forming our classic, "Igloo with Chimney", although the Chimney is now quite as high in the QQQ, it is in some other averages. This is usually the last thing we see before a strong move down. a head fake move as rounding tops are too obvious and too many technical traders are familiar with them, so they are shaken out before they are trapped and become fuel for a bear trap.

The SPY 1 min is in line like the QQQ 1 min, but again at 2 mins you can see right through the facade with deep negatives and the same theme throughout.



 

A.M. UPDATE

I hope everyone had a fantastic Christmas Holiday, day off and/or... Thursday (seeing as we have members from all over the world).

Jumping right back in to it, overnight the Chinese central bank , PBoC (People's Bank of China) gave the market a bit of "stimulus"  in lowering the non-bank deposit reserve ratio to zero which in turn caused the market to do what it always does and hope for more because a stimulus addicted market knows nothing else than stimulus.

Has anyone written a book that deals with, instead of P/E multiples, Annual Dividends, PEG Ratios or technical indicators;  the merits of Liquidity Injections, rumors of liquidity injections, hope for liquidity injections and hope despite the end of liquidity injections that this time is really different and there WILL be more liquidity injections because we now live in a world in which asset prices for the first time in history can only go up? Perhaps such an author borrowed Obama's campaign motto for its title...HOPE?

Well if not, I'd suggest one of you, a more succinct writer than I, get to it!  If you really want to get rich, you need to write a book about why the market will never fall because central banking liquidity is a one way street; you may have trouble documenting that historically; in fact there will be some inconvenient truths you'll have to smooth over, but people will believe anything when it comes to hope... Obama got re-elected ( sorry, that was a low blow).

In any case, the Shanghai Composite closed up +2.77%

Speaking of hope, I think Japan's crazy man of QE, PM,  Abe is hoping he's not washed away in an uprising called the "Japanese Spring", like the "Arab Spring" after he became the first Japanese leader to preside over the LARGEST DROP EVER in Japanese wages on record after the overnight session revealed that not only did Industrial Output decline, but more importantly in the recession stricken country (the 3rd largest economy in the world) and the country plagued by years of spiraling deflation, the overnight also produced Japanese Inflation data with Core National CPI Slowing for November combined with eighth consecutive drop in Real Consumer Spending since Abe's Tax Hike (on a y.o.y. basis), for example Core Real Spending on Housing has dropped -20.3% on a y.o.y basis.

Real Disposable Income of household's declined again, this time another -3.9% for October (y.o.y. basis), but at the center of it all Real Nominal Wages (total cash wages & overtime pay) collapsed thus Real Wages (Nominal less CPI inflation) printed at -4.3% y.o.y. as the decline widened with Nominal wages, thus Abe-enomics has produced the largest drop in Japanese wages on record.

There are some other interesting developments between China and Russia with direct currency swap trading beginning Monday and Putin signing a new military doctrine naming the US and NATO as the most grave threats to Russia and test fires an ICB missile.

However for our purposes, today is the first day of the "Traditional" Santa Claus rally. You may remember that part of my theory with regard to this recent move up that was posted a week ago last Friday was that it coincide with the Santa Rally which is the week of Christmas (day after) through New Years, and the possibility if not probability that traders would be lulled in to the rally as they believe it's a near God-given right that MUST occur, with any sudden drop during this period likely to cause some intense downside action/pain. so it will be an interesting time moving forward through New Year's.

However, this is also year end Window Dressing, the biggest Window Dressing of the year, The Art of Looking Smart,   in which managers get rid of under-performing holdings and buy the hottest stocks of the last quarter or year so when the January prospectus comes out, it "LOOKS" like the fund's manager had all the right stocks and none of the wrong ones, even though they may have only owned them for a few days, it doesn't matter, they'll close out the quarter and the year with this new list of stocks going down for those less prone to do investigative digging around, awestruck by what great stock pickers these managers are,  which is why we call Window Dressing at month's , Quarter's and Year's end, "The Art of Looking Smart".

Officially however, we are at the last day for this type of window dressing (not including broad market performance for the year's end) when you consider the T+3 Rule or "Settlement", stocks or rather trades settle in T+3 which means "Trade plus 3 days", so with 4 trading days left in the year, Trade = today + 3 days for settlement.

The Index futures have an interesting look to them near term... Note the difference between ES, TF and NQ (SPX, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ100 Futures).

The 1 min charts....

 ES 1 min had a positive divergence in a flat area overnight leading to a ramp up on the open with initial 3C confirmation, but...

TF 1 min looks very different, very negative so the tie breaker, NQ 1 min...

NQ 1 min is virtually perfectly in line except a strengthening negative divergence especially since the open.

So we go to the longer charts and the 5 min chart that has been so key for me...

 ES's longer term 5 min is negative showing the same overnight positive divergence in a flat zone of price as is very common and initial confirmation after the cash open.

 However it takes no skill whatsoever to see the gaping negative divergence on the 5 min TF/Russell 2000 chart.

And the tie breaker again, NQ 5 min...

 Which has taken a break from a larger negative divergence and fallen in line!

Still the highest probability near term resolution is still marked by the 7 min charts which have stayed pretty negative.

 ES 7 min

TF 7 min, gaping!

NQ 7 min negative and leading negative.

So now I suppose its up to leading indicators and the divergences in the averages which we should be able to see just about now being the first hour of a.m. Tom-Foolery is about over.