Sunday, November 18, 2012

ES Overnight

Just looking at the ES futures, after hitting a high of 1365+ it looks like there's a pullback coming in to the European opening which is in about 3.5 hours, however that doesn't mean a lot this early in the overnight session, but the signal looks pretty clear. We'll see how it worked out in the a.m. and what comes next.



News that Moves the Market

So far the only possible biggie I see is this one from Stratfor, "Rumors on a Gaza Cease-fire"


Opening

While it's way too early to come to any conclusions based on the opening indications, it is useful to know at least where it has opened.

 So far in a little less than an hour of opening trade, ES (S&P E-mini Futures) has been trading up from Friday's close.

 The EUR/USD has also opened and moved up thus far, however last week we saw the Euro up and the $USD up as well, which is not typical, however there is some early evidence the $USD is falling a bit so far which is what the market needs to move higher, while the Euro is a good proxy because the $USD usually trades opposite the Euro, as we saw last week the $USD managed to stay up while the Euro moved up.

 Here the AUD is up vs the $USD as well

 Also the GBP is up vs the USD as well as are many popular FX/Currency pairs, this is something we recognized last week as being important to a reversal as well as seeing some sharp momentum in the EUR and USD charts that suggested the $USD was ready to make a move lower as last week for most of the week it held in a lateral range, except Friday it jumped a bit above that range which may indeed have been the head fake move that so often precedes a reversal.


The $USD Dollar Index ha also opened and moved lower, at last check it was at the lows of the day even though we only have about an hour in thus far.

Other than the charts and the indications that suggest an upside reversal,I would think those that have the power to move the market in the near term would like to see it higher this week with Black Friday coming up, you know- a little consumer confidence, but for that to make news for the average person, the move up would need to be sharp... Just a Thought.

More as it develops.