Sunday, September 16, 2012

Additional Events


Al Qaeda-led Salafis hit three Egyptian Sinai bases, down Egyptian chopper


I hadn't heard about this, I wonder why?

 More than 1,000 MFO peacemakers including hundreds of American officers have been under Salafi-Al Qaeda-Bedouin siege for three days since their Al Ghora base was raided Friday. They have a fleet of helicopters and small reconnaissance aircraft with American crews,  but they don’t dare take off because it is feared that al Qaeda gunmen will shoot them down with FIM-92 Stinger anti-air missiles smuggled into Sinai from Libya.

The IDF high command is tensed now for the jihadis to again turn their guns and rockets on Israel.

Something Bigger Than the Government Wants Us to Believe

While the US keeps repeating, "The attack in Libya was not premeditated" as if it were a chanting mantra, evidence everywhere suggests otherwise. Not only did the Egyptians warn the US nearly a week before, but the Libyan president says there's no doubt the attacks were pre-planned starting months ago and officials warned the US 3 days before the attack (a Libyan Security official met with diplomat in the city 3 days before the attack to warn them), again refuting the popular theory that an anti-muslim film was the reason behind a protest that turned deadly as the US would have us believe, yet if you look around the world at the numerous protests, even the violent ones are largely rocks, bottles and the like, not Rocket propelled grenades and artillery pieces as well as automatic weapons.

As details become more clear, there were in fact ex-Seal Team members among the Benghazi dead, this team arrived at an airport in Libya and was escorted to the safe house I mentioned where some embassy staff members escaped to, which also came under attack. The heavily armed seal team (or ex-seal team in civilian clothes) was picked up at the airport and accompanied in to the fight by a Libyan militia group and were ambushed again by RPGs and mortars as soon a they arrived. The Libyan militia was instrumental in the rescue of the staff in the safe house, two of which were killed.

As mentioned, Libyans have condemned the attacks and stage solidarity protests saying the attacks did not represent the Libyan people.

Protests and attacks at embassies and other diplomatic missions in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia (Arab Spring countries) as well as Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia continue. Causalities have been reported at many of the protests.

In Afganistan a recent string attacks by militants who have infiltrated police and other security organizations has left 4 US troops dead this morning, this marks the 3rd such attack in 3 days killing 8 US troops thus far and a similar attack killed two British troops yesterday. The US/NATO response was bombing of an area in which insurgents were thought to be in hiding, which led to the death of 8 women and young girls. Villagers drove the bodies to the provincial capital and chanted, "Death to America". The civilian casualties have caused a deep divide between the Afghan government and NATO and the US led ISAF forces, it appears a break down in cooperation is in the making. The point of al of this is not the individual events, but the seeming coordination invoking muslim rage against the West, which when looked at with a broader perspective, all seems to be very intentional.

Israel condemned the US for not recognizing the rise in militancy, instead choosing to ignore it. This is very similar to the long term analysis right here on our own pages as the Arab Spring saw very weak governments after the fall of the establishment governments. In fact the ruling party in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood, the same group I had mentioned which was being aided by militants who crossed the border in to Egypt during the Mubarak crisis, back then I warned they were preparing the Muslim Brotherhood to step in to the power vacuum. The bigger picture presented in that analysis was looking at Iraq and Afghanistan as a model for the Arab Spring nations, the main point being that after a decade and with strong international and US military presence, neither countries governments can project power outside of their capital, even with all of the US/NATO military support. The ugly question was, "What happens to the Arab Spring Nations? What radicals step in to the power vacuum there?"

Meanwhile in China, anti-Japanese protests have swelled, engulfing dozens of cities and attacks have been carried out against Chinese people themselves for driving Toyota's or other Japanese cars. The Chinese owners of such cars are now covering the brand with Chinese flags and stickers. The Chinese have stepped up Naval operations since 6 Chinese "observation" ships crossed in to the Japanese territorial waters surrounding the disputed islands and refused for some time to turn back when confronted by the Japanese Coast Guard. Since then, starting today, Chinese naval assets have begun military drills in the East China Sea, also known as the West Japanese Sea.

In what can only be called, "strange coincidence" for the time being, the new Japanese designated ambassador to China was found unconscious in the streets of Tokyo as he was walking from home to work, he later died in a hospital today with no apparent or as of yet released cause of death.

In Europe, first it was the Spanish marching/protesting austerity measures imposed by the government, today somewhere around 150,000 Portuguese took to the street protesting austerity measures imposed by the EU and IMF in exchange for a bailout. A 20-year old Portuguese protestor was taken to the hospital after trying to set himself ablaze, echoing the event in Tunisia that marked the start of the Arab Spring uprisings. The protestors are calling on the government to step down after austerity measures have pushed unemployment to its highest ever at 15% with even greater tax hikes planned.

In other flair-ups, the protests turned violent by South African miners saw a return to escalating violence as negotiations over the weekend failed to halt a planned strike to start today among the miners. There has already been violence in these protests, today the police fired rubber bullets at miners/protestors.

To tie it all together, the massive naval armada from 25 nations is growing larger in anticipation of an Israeli strike on Iran, with the US aircraft carrier, The Stennis, is en route. To really stir things up, Iran has announced their elite Revolutionary Guard is now "boots on the ground" in Syria!

Things are going from bad to worse at a frightening rate. We'll see tonight how the futures market is handling all of the sudden and escalating crisis around the world.







More Immediate Concerns

***This is a post I had been working on yesterday for some time, I put out a later, briefer post, but since writing the below comments which in my view suggested a direct Al Qaeda link to events in the Muslim world using that crudely made film as an excuse for this kind of wild-fire discontent, just didn't sit well with me, it seemed there was much more behind the protest, although the protestors by and large are simple pawns, it is an effective strategy by Al Qaeda, divide and conquer as they say. The US can't deploy assets to 50 or 60 regions at once. In light of developments since I wrote this yesterday, I figured I'd release this post as a sort of background information before updating the most recent events. Tonight we'll see how the futures market is taking all of this in.****


As Thursday the market got what it has been seeking since 2011, quickly it may have to deal with more pressing concerns. It's difficult to say if Friday's lack of a strong follow through rally was connected to a ground swell anti-American (as well as other Western Countries -German and British as well) movement gains momentum that makes even the Arab Spring look tame; however I think there's little question that oil prices clearly reflect growing concern over events.

It turns out my "4 nations a day joining the protests " estimate was too conservative as can be seen below...
 At present, I count at least 42 different ares where protests have taken place since the September 11th killing of a US ambassador and 3 aides in Libya and this doesn't include other areas such as Australia and Germany. While hostilities are being blamed on a crudely made trailer for a film that insults Mohammed, Egyptian Intelligence warned the US as early as September 4th that the Global Jihad group was planning at least two embassy attacks on both American and Israeli embassies. 

The Libyan attack was not anything like the global protests that have erupted, blamed on the film. The group said to be responsible for the attack is a Al Qaeda spin-off, named after a blind Sheik serving a life sentence in the US for his part in planning the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center.  This group was heavily armed including rocket launchers and heavy artillery. Look at the damage to the Consulate...



In addition there have been a wave of protests against the terror plot by Libyans, carrying signs saying, "This does not represent us".


Many Libyans also expressed their high regard for Ambassador Stevens, saying he was a friend to all Libyans.

I won't show the photo because of its graphic nature, but the Libyan people had come to the ambassador's aid after the attack and tried to revive him.

The US response in the hot spots has obviously been to step up security with more marines stationed at embassies and consulates, a very different response to the Libyan event in which two warships were sent as well as predator drones, an elite team of marines and CIA/FBI assets as well. Obviously this seems natural as those responsible are tracked down, but the point is the US government seems to be acutely aware that this event was much different than other protests taking place, as whoever is truly behind the plot (An Al Qaeda-produced Web video recently released called for Libyans to avenge the death of a terror leader killed by a drone strike in their country in June) uses the film as being justification.

Just today, Al Qaeda has released more videos calling for Muslims to carry out more attacks on US diplomats in Muslim nations.

The assault on the consulate lasted 4 hours where Ambassador Stevens and Smith died,  with some staff members escaping to a second site which was also attacked killing 2 more US embassy staff. 

The September 11th date stands out as does the location as American support for anti-Gadafi forces helped topple the regime. Initial protests also were notable in that they were all Arab Spring countries such as Tunisia and Egypt. 

This seems much more well coordinated than simple waves of protest. The US government has sent Marine FAST teams to several embassies and consulates, but the widespread nature of the protests and the ability for militants to blend in to crowds as large as 500,000 is typical Al Qaeda guerilla tactics that divide thin US assets.

In other escalating tensions, China has sent 6 ships including warships in to what are considered to be Japanese territorial waters off the coast of the Senkaku Islands islands which Japan has recently purchased from private owners, but have been under Japanese jurisdiction for decades, however that jurisdiction has been disputed by China for years. This has inflamed tensions with thousands of Chinese protesting outside Japanese Embassies in multiple locations throughout China. Japanese restaurants and businesses have also been attacked.

The US is not clear of this incident either, as recently as 2010 the US reiterated that the islands fall under the scope of the US-Japanese Security Treaty.