Important Market Update

*If you miss everything else, don't miss the breadth indications near the bottom of the post.

One of the more notable changes in character  this week was actually hinted at last Thursday in an overnight session which I wrote about  last week as an oddity, turns out it was one of those "Changes in character" that leads to a change in trend, in this case a long established trend/correlation.

The first hint was from an early a.m. session/overnight in which USD/JPY surged and ES flopped, this entire week has been characterized by the complete reversal of the long time correlation between the carry trade and Index futures.

Stocks had their worst week since July, the S&P missed 2000 again despite the reemergence of 1 share orders this afternoon and  was the worst performer on the week of the major averages.

The SPX, Dow, NDX and R2K on the week...

This of course is right on line with the 3C signals for the August cycle...

The SPY has the strongest 3C chart out to 60 mins. as the stage 1 base/accumulation took place in early August (SPY was the only average to show accumulation out to 60 min), then 3C moving with price at stage 2 mark-up and seeing distribution at the stage 3 top. There are much worse looking charts than this.

While the Dow...

puts in the exact conceptual price movement from a bearish ascending wedge that we have come to expect, on top of that the Dow lost $17k today on the close.


You might think there would be some rotation in to bonds considering equity weakness, however...

Treasury yields had a horrible week as USD/JPY lost all correlation with Index Futures (a red flag) and rather took up with treasury yields, all significantly higher on the week.

 USD/JPY vs 10-year bond futures (bonds move opposite yields so yields moved with USD/JPY).

And Yields on the week, across the board higher, 5, 10 and 30 year.


The $USD, which we have been watching for a return to the historical legacy arbitrage correlation saw another weekly gain of +.05% on weakness in JPY, CAD and AUD. It would seem the $USD legacy correlation is returning amidst all kinds of other undercurrents such as the GBP strength/weakness on the Scottish referendum for independence next week, still the higher dollar saw commodities/$USD denominated assets lower including significant lows in gold, silver, copper and oil which regained some lost ground.

Commodities vs the SPX have been crushed. Some of you old timers may remember the last time we really saw commodities crushed, they led news of China's slowdown by about a month. I certainly would not be surprised, especially in light of the EIA's Oil downgrade for 2014/2015 based on European and Chinese weakness, if this was pointing at the very same issue of economic weakness above and beyond what the "Official" releases are from China, if not Europe.


This section is to show that not only does HY Credit's charts lead the market, but the actual flows in and out of High Yield Credit have a telling impact on the market. First from July 25th when the market looked like this...

I posted on that day (red arrow) in the Daily Wrap...

"High Yield ETFs and funds have seen huge outflows the last month, THIS WEEK SAW THE LARGEST OUTFLOW FROM HIGH YIELD FUNDS  IN MORE THAN A YEAR! Much of the flow has gone to low yielding, defensive Investment Grade Credit."

The following decline shaved -3.94% from the SPX , -4.49%from the Dow-30 and 4-8% from the Russell 2000, depending on when you account for the flow of HY Credit exiting the market.

From Monday, August 11th (the day the August cycle moved from stage 1 base to stage 2 mark-up, Intraday Update

"One of the reasons I think the upside sub-intermediate term bounce from the last week's base is still on track (other than the divergences) is that HYG is still leading the SPX higher (short term manipulation lever)- remember that small inflow of money in to HY credit last week? I suspected it was for a short term bounce off our week long base."

If we look at the relationship between HYG and the SPX (as we have more than a few times), we see exactly what I'm talking about above, HYG is leading the market, not only at the base, but through stage 2, followed by stage 3 and has already entered stage 4, while the market with it's downtrend this week may or may not have entered stage 4 decline (I personally don't think it has just yet), there's no denying that HYG credit which we have used for this very purpose, as a Leading Indicator, for years, is leading the market.

HYG is blue, the SPX is gren on this daily chart. HYG bottomed on August 1st, the SPX started it's base after being down -2% July 31st, on August 1st. You may recall the post from July 31st's Daily Wrap which was the first indication we had of a base/bounce coming and all based off deeply oversold market breadth, not indicators.

The white arrow above HYG shows it is still leading the SPX, the orange arrow above HYG shows where HYG lead the market in entering lateral stage 3 (top) and the red arrow shows where HYG led the market again entering stage 4 decline. The important thing is HYG LEADS the market.

I have included these same stages for the SPX wrapped around the dates at the bottom, stage 1 accumulation/base from 8/2 to 8/8 and stage 2 mark up the next trading day on 8-11. The SPX moves to lateral stage 3 top around 8/26 through present as it is marked in orange, although this week's clear downtrend could be looked at as the start of stage 4 decline as I posted in last Friday's  The Week Ahead...

"If I had to make a call, I'd say more of the same, more lateral chop which in the cycle is stage 3 top/reversal process... I feel pretty strongly the market will enter stage 4 decline sometime next week "

The above forward week forecast was probably about as close to right as we could have possibly been at the time. I don't think any one would argue that this week has been in essence, "More of the same lateral/sideways chop with the SPX-.73% on the week, the NASDAQ 100 -0.50% on the week , the Dow-30 -0.82% on the week and the Russell 2000 down -.81% on the week (if counted until yesterday, the Russell 2k is up +0.19% on the week (just to illustrate the chop).

As for the stage 4 decline... "I feel pretty strongly the market will enter stage 4 decline sometime next week "

 Looking at this trend of the SPX for the week vs HYG, it's not that much of a stretch to say the market has transitioned from lateral , choppy, stage 3 top to the stage 4 decline phase with a series of lower highs and lower lows.

The SPX is in green, HYG is in blue. HYG is already well in to stage 4 and looking at the trend for the week with the SPX's lower highs and lower lows, I think it's not that much of a stretch to say that we have transitioned to stage 4 decline.  However, the point I'm trying to get at here is the role High Yield Credit plays as a leading indicator. Look at the SPX's clear down trend and HYG which has turned lateral for the last 3 days as it has built a positive divegrence, you can also see the SPX has essentially flattened out as it barely made a mower low today.

From Thursday August 14th's Daily Wrap

" As we moved toward a base/bounce I noticed some inflow (small) in to HY credit which I figured was for a bounce and I noticed SKEW dropped below the elevated zone which I thought the same of"

From August 18th's Daily Wrap...

"Last week, there was a small inflow of funds ($0.71 bn) in to HY Credit, the measurement period aligns almost perfectly with the start of the bounce which is something I mentioned before as I believe smart money are making small "Piggy-Back" trades just as we like to do with solid bounces with decent signals."

That brings us to where we are currently in the cycle, you have seen already what High Yield corporate Credit has done and what stage it is in and it's leadership character...

According to Lipper Data, for the week ended Sept. 10 US High Yield bond funds saw an outflow of $765.8m , which is the second consecutive week of outflows as the previous week saw an outflow of  $198.1m. I think it's pretty clear to see that HY fund flow (much more coming out than what went in in late July/early August, is leading the market and pretty well synced with assets like High Yield Corporate Credit (HYG).

The primary buyer in the market has been corporate buybacks which for at least 2 years have seen record levels of buybacks which allow EPS and share prices to be artificially juiced higher, we know from Q2 data that the "Buyback Party" has now ended, it had to. As was posted here before, HY credit and equities are both arbitrage-able bets on the same capital structure. Simply put, "Credit leads, equities follow", the proof is on the charts above.

As for our HYG positive divegrence and the SPX chart for the week/downtrend, we know the market never makes it easy, but it is possible if you are paying attention.

I'm talking specifically about this chart...

 HYG vs SPX... What is the defining Technical feature of the SPX which may cause retail to buy on a breakout?

And specifically this chart as the averages don't have the kind of divergences to support a breakout

HYG 3-day 15 min leading positive divegrence. We've seen at least 2 HYG divergences, smaller, get run over already over the course of the last week or so, but this is the strongest of all of them which is why I posted what I did in this afternoon's, The Week Ahead. From my perspective, with the SPX chart having such an obvious channel, the F_O_M_C coming up and the scramble in some of our "Trade-Set-Up" assets to try to make it to their head fake zone seemingly before any serious market downside as we saw in FSLR and SCTY (up +1.62 and +3.84% respectively) in a down market and VERY close to the areas we marked as target areas, this just makes sense. The market rarely makes things easy or predictable.

Among other Leading Indicators, both of our Professional Sentiment Indicators ended the day right in line with the SPX, not a divergence suggesting higher prices in the near term. More importantly, these Leading Indicators have diverged notably from the SPX.

Our sentiment indicators have been in sync, confirming market action from the July decline to the August cycle, but at stage 3, much like our other leading indicator, HY Credit, they have diverged notably from the SPX.

Not surprisingly, HY Credit (other than HYG) was crumbling on the late week decline.

If our leading indication of Yields could be relied upon like it has been so often in the past (this has been a VERY weird week for bonds), then they'd suggest something I already brought up in today's post, The Week Ahead

Yields have been spot on during the August cycle until the last week or so, is HYG's signal enough to suggest this leading indicator might be correct as well? Note the channel mentioned in the SPX...

Also interesting given the Week Ahead, HYG and a few other indications ... There was a Dominant Price/Volume Relationship today which was Close Down/Volume Up,  with 18 of the Dow, 64 of the NASDAQ 100, 838 of the R2K and 241 of SPX.

This relationship most often signals a short term oversold or more precisely, a capitulation event with the market often closing green the next day which is quite interesting all things considered.

Adding to this, all 9 S&P sectors closed red today with Utilities performing the worst at -1.79 and Financials the best at -0.09. ALSO, all 9 S&P sectors closed red on the week, with Technology losing the least and Energy losing the most. AGAIN, THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE SAME SHORT TERM OVERSOLD EVENT WE SAW TUESDAY.

Just to round it out, only 37 of the 239 Morningstar groups closed green, Tuesday this was 17 of 239, very similar and Wednesday we had a green close across the board, the best day of the week for 3 of the 4 major averages. Just to drive the point home even further, the same groups only had 56 of 239 close green on the week.  In other words, we not only have the same kind of 1-day oversold event (deeply) that we saw Tuesday, but one of the worst on the week , perhaps worse than the July 31st breadth post in which we suspected a base and bounce based on the horrid breadth readings.

Continuing along the breadth path as I knew from today's intraday breadth that today was going to be bad, we had some of the biggest moves of the week in breadth declines today.

Advance/Decline lines deteriorated badly, most breadth indicators posted the largest losses of the week on top of losses already seen which I have been talking about this week as leaving this market very exposed up here and very hollow or thin.

To illustrate HOW BAD a shape this market is in, here's the "Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above their 200-day Moving Average"...

Breadth indicator green/SPX red. The indicator has made a new low that is BELOW the 8/11 reading, 8/11 is the first day of stage 2 mark-up, so breadth at this level in the SPX is now LOWER/WORSE than it was as the stage 2 rally started!

The "Percentage of NYSE Stocks One Standard Deviation Above their 200-day Moving Average" is nearly at new lows!

Again, indicator green, SPX red. The horrible breadth DURING a DECLINE is the reason I posted the urgent July 31st update expecting a base to form and a bounce because the market was so oversold from a breadth perspective.

I am NOT making the same case now, although this does help the case I made in the The Week Ahead , however after that, I feel like the little boy who says, "I see ghosts", this is exceptional market breadth readings far surpassing the 2007 top.

The "Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above their 40-day Moving Average" lost 11 percentage points today alone which puts the breadth reading at a 66% retracement from the lows that created the August rally!

I can go on and on, but I think this gives the week ahead forecast some legs and it gives our longer term forecast or bigger picture I should say because we are right at our longer term forecast, some serious teeth.

I'd really be ready for next week, unless the F_E_D pulls a printing press out of their pocket and proceeds to print right there, I don't think there's much stopping this (actual momentum, just not visible in price, but it is in 3C and breadth as well as Leading Indicators and a number of other pieces of the puzzle we have put together.

If you got some positions together this week, you should have a great weekend, I feel great about next week.

The Week Ahead

This looks like a pretty clear no brainer with F_E_D concerns (rightfully so) for next week apparently behind some of the selling while I think other factors are behind some of the bigger picture selling which cannot be separated from the F_E_D.

HY Bond flows were actually positive going in to the early August base, a sign that we were probably looking at the bounce expected from the Daily Wrap of July 31st. However this week we have 765 million in HY outflows on top of last week's 198 million, in other words HY credit, just like before the August rally, is giving a tell signal again. HYG's bigger picture chart is giving the same tell signal and in the SPX we have lower highs and lower lows, but the market rarely makes it that easy.

HYG's positive divegrence this week is still there and it's not for nothing , it's not a coincidence.

While I can't pinpoint the exact moment, my guess is HYG is used to boost the market, maybe even our head fake move because the market itself just doesn't have the positive short term divergences to do it alone. However after that, I'll say HYG will be head ed straight back down and I'm guessing this happens before the policy announcement on Wednesday. Judging by the scramble toward our set-up targets in several of our short set up plays today, despite a red market, it looks like they are in a hurry to get that move in place and I suspect HYG is going to help early in the week and then retreat before the market.

So rather than last week's "More of the same" sideways chop, I think the SPx's downtrend of lower highs and lower lows I have posted several times this week is a target for technical traders and HYG will likely sponsor the move, however breadth and 3C charts are so weak, that's the time to use any strength as charts like FSLR and SCTY that are up today, are so VERY close to the targets they need to hit. That's when we want to get those positions, not that having them now is a problem, I'm just looking at the best timing.

That's my take based on what I see right now, HYG sponsors an early move in the week before Wednesday breaking the SPX downtrend and getting longs to bite and by Wednesday I suspect the F_O_M_C will move us from stage 3 to stage 4 and if they don't breadth will.

Quick MCP Update

I wasn't "thrilled" about MCP's early performance today, you might even think, "At 2% down, what's there to be happy about?"

I waited on an MCP update for the same reasons most people look at the close as the most important part of the trading day, there are a lot of games intraday that kick traders out of positions.

As an aside, the last time I used a placed stop (placed with my broker) was about 8 years ago as I was going on a 4-day cruise, the long position was looking good and I put in an "Emergency Stop" much, much lower than a reasonable stop, just in case the world stopped spinning. Not only can Wall St. see every order you place despite what your broker says, most decent traders can see them as well.

I was stopped out of my long position while I was on my cruise. Interestingly my stop was the low of the day on about a 6% move down that day, after it was hit, the stock went on to close up 5% on the day and kept going in the days and weeks after that. So I never place an order until I place an order and when I go on vacation (which ha been a good 4 years for anything beyond a long weekend), I'll likely close out all positions and enjoy my vacation.

In any case, the day is not done, but I didn't want to overreact to something I knew was likely an intraday game.

 The only thing I'm concerned about today with MCP is the close, I'd like to see today's candlestick's real body stay within Tuesdays, a sort of Rising 3 Methods pattern. A break above Tuesday's body high is a bonus.

As for the longer tail on today's daily candle, note the support area and the volume spike just as price moves below that support area, stops rang...

I do like the U.O signal here as well.

More importantly...

 On an intraday basis, look what happened to the stops hit at support.

As far as thinking bigger, this 30 min chart of MCP is what's keeping me in the trade (as well as some others, but in this area, this is the most relevant).

And if we zoom in to the same 30 min chart and look at the last 3 days and today's move under support, we get an interesting picture.

One of your first hints

Intraday breadth is always one of the first hints of an intraday reversal, in fact daily breadth such as the Dominant Price/Volume relationship is a hint as well for slightly larger daily reversals.

Draw those trendlines...

Lots of breadth damage done today...

Market Update, 2 p.m.

2 p.m. seems to be the magical hour on Friday's (op-ex) in which things change.

 The market/SPY has a clear down trend, lower highs, lower lows, this is going to be an obvious first target for any possible head fake move that might be brewing in HYG. I will note that several of our trade set-ups seem to be in a hurry to get to their head fake zones like FSLR and SCTY today, even against an ugly market, I suspect they know they are running out of time, I also suspect they know exactly when that time is, an obvious date would be the F_O_M_C, especially as the sentiment is that the F_O_M_C is going to come out more hawkish, watch those dots and talk about interest rate hikes, slack in the labor market, etc.

As for today, on of the things we are looking at is support, an inability thus far to make a lower low. Watch for volume to expand in this area, it's a sure fire flag that there's going to be an upside reversal intraday.

 The 60 min 3C chart has been right on. It showed the accumulation at the August base, confirmation at stage 2 and distribution through stage 3, stage 4 is coming. HYG is the short term wild card and whether the market makes a head fake move. I'd say 80% of the time the answer would be yes, but looking back at some previous tops, there weren't any, so who really knows, when weakness sets in, you'd be surprised how quickly smart money tightens up-look at the AAPL decline in 2011.

 Intraday the SPY is showing signs of a positive divegrence.

As is the IWM

And the Q's have a more notable one.

HYG has seen some deterioration intraday, but it hasn't changed the divergence in this flat area that I have been watching the last 3 days.

Intraday breadth has been horrible, I'm sure it will show up on the updated internals/breadth charts after the close.

And TICK today, horrible, breadth has been consistently below 100, then the -1250 level and peaking at nearly -1600, this has been a trend as of late, however,  in addition to a surge intraday in volume, the TICK will give early warning for an intraday reversal so watch for a break toward the upside or channel to the upside.

Last, don't forget the trade set-ups, any price strength bringing them in to our target zones with confirmation of a false move is an excellent entry, if not a bit hard emotionally, but that's what we get paid for.

Trade Idea (longer term) Transports

It's no secret I really like transports as a short and a diversifying asset as I typically only run about a half dozen positions at a time and want to get as much diversification among sectors as I can. The good thing about transports is that they'll typically confirm equities so any downside in my core shorts that are linked to an average like SRTY (3x times short the Russell 2000) are confirmed by a move lower in transports, but allows for rotation.

Transports look good in this area, in fact our current layered entry in to IYT (transports) is only down 1.36% ...

which is impressive as far as entries go considering the daily chart...

Which is close to all time highs. The price pattern looks as if it may be a H&S top with this being the head, but all H&S tops start off as "Broadening Tops" which could also be possible. In any case, both of our entries/blended, have given us a great average entry.

As to the charts which are what really matter here...

 Long term 4 hour, consistent with the increased upside ROC of price right before a change in trend (see trendlines), in this case most often a topping pattern...

 The 60 min chart with entries as the first divegrence took place very quickly on our first entry and the subsequent move has a much lower flow of funds/support or in other words, heavier distribution with less support at the same relative price area.

 As for this particular move as transports have been strong the last couple of days, this chart is comforting although with the longer charts looking the way they do, this is something you just expect to see.

On a more timely basis, the 5 min chart showing the most recent move since our last entry to be totally hollow as the other intermediate charts show, with an especially strong leading negative divegrence today.

 The 3 min trend just provides more confirmation.

And the intraday 1 min looks like this is an excellent place to enter or add to. I kind of doubt you get anything much better, at least not another move (maybe some fumbling in this one).

THIS IS WHAT 3C IS FOR, THESE ARE THE KINDS OF DIVERGENCES AND CONFIRMATION AMONG MULTIPLE TIMEFRAMES AND ASSETS I(IYT) THAT I DON'T IGNORE.

Just "After" Noon Update

Well the much anticipated if not telegraphed US sanctions on Russia via the US Treasury Dept. have been unleashed this morning, targeting Russian Financial, Defense and Energy sectors, including: Energy giant Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, Surgutneftgaz (lots of oil and gas in there) Rosneft. Several financial institutions have been added to the list and for the sanctioned financial institutions, refinancing operations of 90-days have been cut to 30-days.

In response the Putin government is drafting their own list of retaliatory sanctions that are said to not include travel bans or anything that would negatively impact Russia.

I'd say the market is taking this in stride for the most part. Brent Crude actually seems a bit relieved as it pushed higher after the release of the sanctions from intraday lows. The $USD has lost some ground, but I can't say that it is in response to the sanctions as it doesn't match the release, more in line with the cash open. The 10- year yield has backed off the 2.6% level (the first time it has broke 2.6% since July) and is back down at 2.585%.

As for the market, I don't think tonight's breadth readings are going to look much better unless something dramatic changes, yesterday they looked worse across the board despite a high beta R2K short squeeze seen in the MSI. This morning so far the MSI is inactive, I really don't think there are many shorts left that "WILL" be squeezed. I'm nearly praying for a head fake move on the upside now as the market is so hollow, it would be the gift of the year. Although several watchlist/Trade set up stocks are hitting alerts, SCTY has just hit several price alerts I have set as it closes in on my target range and FSLR is doing the same.

As I said earlier, it seems these are both being rushed (they are moving against the market) in order to pull off the much needed head fake moves with position sizes as large as institutional ones are. Perhaps the F_O_M_C is D-day which would allow enough room for a head fake move as the range is pretty darn well set and any break above it would get bulls off the wait and see fence as we have been in pure chop and chase the breakout (or "technical confirmation").

 The MSI's afternoon helping hand can be seen, this morning NOTHING.

My Custom TICK Indicator vs the SPY has been deep red all day thus far and...

The TICK Index has barely surpassed +500 on the upside while probing sub -1000 lows all morning,  again, I doubt market breadth at the EOD is going to look very good.

The two things that keep me hopeful for a head fake / false breakout are 1) the concept is so reliable, it's seen probably 80% of the time and the more defined a resistance or suport zone is and the more watched an asset is, the more likely the move is.

The second reason would be HYG's ongoing positive divegrence, although suffering some minor distribution intraday, it looks like it is set to fire which creates an arbitrage trade as correlated algos see the HY credit move as institutional risk on and start buying which has been why HYG has been used for such a long time as one of the ,most liquid ways to trade HY credit since the banks that use to loan it out emptied their balance sheets of it in the wake of the financial crisis.

 There's some very minute deterioration in HYG, I don't think it means much.

In context, the current HYG divergence is pretty small, these 60 min negatives are the divergences you don't ignore and it won't be long before HYG is making that lower low and changing it's sub-intermediate trend status, perhaps even intermediate.

At the same time this HYG positive divegrence (in context above) is going to fire off in my opinion. "IF" HYG's options had more liquidity I'd be buying some calls with next Friday's expiration, but the liquidity just isn't there. "IF" HYG were higher beta, I'd be shorting it either here or on a bounce from this divegrence as it has a much lower move to make and on this scale, it should be leading the market to a new impressive low. PErhaps that's why investors like Soros and Icahn are taking this very seriously and banks like BAC are stating the obvious, "There's significant downside risk ahead.

Intraday the SPY's charts have been following or confirming the downside move, however I suspect an EOD ramp job in to the close, it is a Friday after all and charts like this...

SPY 2 min are starting to improve ahead of the 2 p.m. max-pain pin release.

DIA, QQQ and IWM are following along to various degrees, but it's a change in character right about the right time in front of 2 p.m.

I'm continuing to set alerts and follow up on those triggered thus far.

Put SCTY on the radar as well as FSLR.

UNG / UGAZ

I have to post this UNG (UGAZ 3x long UNG) because the for 1 the opportunity here is looking better and better and for 2, the string of updates are very telling, looking at the signals we had at the time as well as the signals that we didn't, but the concepts we have come to expect, UNG analysis has been pretty close to flawless, but it's all about the trade and I REALLY like UNG long or better yet, UGAZ (3x long Nat. Gas).

I already have a UGAZ position that I'd gladly add to if one more concept falls in to place.

This last update from 9/2 shows our expectations even though we didn't have specific evidence at the time and later how the evidence built in based on the concepts and the expectations followed suit, sort of like any of the trade-set-ups like FSLR earlier today.

Here's the post, UNG / UGAZ Update with links to the preceding posts as well. If you have the time to read them, I think you'll find that the concepts are what are important about them (although the UNg/UGAZ trade is the final destination), the concepts can be applied to any stock or asset in any timeframe you trade.

 The initial evidence was that this breakout move was going to back and fill some gaps, maybe more. I'd like to see a move below support to add to UGAZ long, you'll see why in a moment.

The 2 hour chart shows where we were seeing distribution and you can see clear accumulation in the current range.

 The 60 min chart shows the negative divegrence from higher levels to come back down and fill out a base which has a huge leading positive divegrence, thus any move below support is which is fairly well defined, is likely to be a head fake run on stops which would be accumulated, exactly the kind of area I'd want to enter at a lower cost basis although we're already at a low cost basis on the current UGAZ position, only down 1.5% on a 3x leveraged ETF a we sit near the bottom of support.

 The shorter term charts show the head fake move in detail, like this 3 min with distribution at the false breakout, but the distribution is very light as it is only showing up on intraday 3 min charts at the longest, also suggestive of someone accumulating a larger position. The false breakout forces longs who bought the confirmation to close out their position as price drops below their stops, creating more supply while smart money just waits for price to re-enter the accumulation zone at lower prices.

In actuality, this could end up looking like a Crazy Ivan shakeout of the rectangle base which is what I would want to buy as an add-to position.

 As I said before, distribution wasn't heavy, you can see the evidence, however again only on a 2 min chart and since the decline accumulation has been seen in to lower prices.

I have no problem with a long UNG or UGAZ in the area , but I would like yo leave a little room as a head fake/stop run below well defined support is pretty likely and we have such strong positive divergences where it really counts. Again, you may want to set some price alerts for a move below $20.59 intraday.