Weekends are my tinkering time, messing around with different ideas for analyzing the market. I have long been using a filter that sorts out performance for any watchlist in several different timeframes from 1 day (sorts all stocks from best performing to worst performing for the day), 10 days, 31 days, etc-all in all 11 different daily timeframes up to 250 days. I modified the code a bit and took the 126 day returns and extrapolated what the trend would be expected to return at 31 days if it continued. I went through industries and different investments and looked for large variations between the expected percentage for the 31 day trend and the actual percentage. I only noted those groups that had very large changes that really stood out.
I may try to set this up for a shorter timeframe as well, but this timeframe seemed appropriate as it looks at the QE period to the recent doubt over another round of QE and as it takes awhile to make big rotational sector changes, the 31 day trend comparison seemed appropriate.
Below are specific groups that showed either very bullish changes away from the median or very bearish changes (most changes are in the area of 30% to triple 100+%) . Most of these won't be surprises to you:
Bearish Changes:
Brazil , Base Metals, Emerging Markets, Energy Sector, Crude Oil, Financial Sector, Oil and Gas, Basic Materials, Commodity Indexes, Xinhua China 25, Small Caps, Russell 1-2 and 3k, Pacific economies/ equities Ex-Japan, Value Stocks, Growth Stocks, Dow 30, S&P-500, Industrials, Mid-Caps, Large Caps, Euro (FX), Semi-conductors, Developed Markets, Retail, Global Water, Home Builders, Internet, Technology, International Industrials, Information-Tech, Swedish Krona (FX), International Small Caps, Telecommunications, Global Technology, Environmental Services, High Yielding Equities, Europe, US Aerospace/Defense, Precious Metals, France, Grains, Philippines, Insurance, International Utilities, South Korea, Telecom Services, Agriculture, Software, Hong Kong, Clean Tech, Emerging Asia/Pacific, Coffee, Cocoa, International Financial Sector, Chinese Small Caps, Chinese Real Estate, Platinum, Rare Earth Metals, Nuclear Energy, Community Banks, Brazilian Equities, Chinese Technology, Africa, Australia Small Caps, US Regional Banks, Mexico, Emerging Markets Infrastructure, Wind Energy, Chinese Financials, Netherlands, Austria, Canada, MENA, Coal, Italy, Latin America, Progressive Energy, Spain, Natural Gas, Oil & Gas Exploration, Aluminum, Palladium, Oil & Gas Equipment/Services, South Africa, Timber and Forestry, Norway, Global Steel, BRIC Economies, Canadian Energy, Industrial Metals, Heating Oil, India, Copper Miners, Metals/Mining, Silver, Silver Miners, Gold Miners, Livestock, Turkey, Nickel, Eastern Europe, Sugar, Russia, Tin, Solar, Platinum, Vietnam, Cotton, Broadcasting-Radio, Drug Delivery, Credit Services, Communication Equipment, Music and Video Stores, Medical Appliances & Equipment, Textile Manufacturing, Personal Service, Rubber and Plastics, Scientific and Technical Instruments, Long Distance Carriers, Specialty Eateries, Diversified Entertainment, Specialized Semiconductors, Healthcare Information Service, Business Software and Services, Electronics Wholesale, Rental and Leasing Services, Auto Dealerships, Paper and Paper Products, Chemicals-Major Diversified, Diagnostic Substances, Industrial Electrical Equipment, Internet Software and Services *-Major Decline*, Auto Parts, Recreational Vehicles, Insurance Brokers, Machine Tools & Accessories, Meat Products, Trucking, Asset Management, Office Supplies, Home Healthcare, Home Improvement Stores, Computers-Wholesale, Regional Pacific Banks, Appliances, Regional Mid-west Banks, Money Center Banks, Investment Brokers, Independent Oil and Gas, Hospitals, Foreign Regional Banks, Major Oil and Integrated Gas, Metal Fabrication, Shipping, Oil/Gas Refining/Marketing, Heavy Construction, Regional Southeast Banks, Agricultural Chemicals, Semi Conductor-Memory Chips, Cement, Farm & Construction Machinery, Security & Protection Services, Non-Metallic Mineral Mining, Longterm Care Facilities, General Contractors, Manufactured Housing *Huge Plunge*,
Bullish Changes:
20-year treasury, 20+ year Treasuries, US Utilities, Airlines, 7-10 year Treasuries, C.A. Municipal Bond Fund, N.Y. Municipal Bond Fund, 7-15 year Treasuries, 3-7 year Treasuries, New Zealand Dollar, Build America Bond Funds, Mortgage Backed Securities, Japan, Emerging Market Bonds, MBS Bond Funds, Japanese Small Caps, U.S. Dollar (FX), Yen (FX), Healthcare, Major Airlines, Data Storage devices, Cigarettes, Tobacco, Apparel Footwear, Multimedia and Graphics software, Drug Manufacturers, Biotechnology, Personal Products, Restaurants, Generic Drugs, Electronic Stores, Wineries & Distilleries, Wholesale Food, Transportation, Toy & Hobby Sotres, Photographic Equipment & Supplies, Regional Airlines.
Perhaps by looking at these lists, you'll get a feel for underlying currents in the economy.
5 years ago
