Monday, January 11, 2010

One Finger in the Air

And that finger is trying to figure out the prevailing winds. Take a look at the most recent post at Trade-Guild.net tonight. I'm going to let the lists I have published already stand for tonight because there are still some great charts/ideas there-it's market cooperation that is needed and I'm not sure we are going to get it. As I've been saying, tighten up, book some profits if you have them, don't swing for the fences and use sound risk management, we may be on the verge of a serious correction.

Take a look at the ETFs posted today, those went through 3 different scans and had to pass all of them-out of many hundreds. They give you a feel for the market and where we might be looking next.

In the portfolio I am managing, we took a decent position today in FAZ, it may be early, but we're getting our toes wet. Other market short positions we are holding (for the longer term) include: EDZ, SKF, SCC and SSG.

If I see anything really interesting I'll update the site so check back as I do intraday updates when needed. If you have questions, email me. ASTM and MATK are an example of two stocks on the lists that are looking interesting, but honor those stops and you'll be around to cash out the double bagger.

Market Long and Short ETF's

As I mentioned, I'm looking for a change of trend in the market and today has been a little spooky. So I put together two lists for you. I ran 3 different scans using my 3C indicators (3 differently constructed versions for better confirmation. The first spreadsheet are ETF's showing significant 3C distribution and are likely to lead the market to the downside. Remember, everything on this list is at some point, a potential short; so pay close attention to whether it is a Ultra or Ultra short. For example DDM is the double-long version of the Dow and I consider this ETF a short (some you will not be able to short and will have to look for an inverse ETF or stocks in that sector-TeleChart provides you with the components of all ETFs). There are no inverse ETF's on this list, but for example, had an Ultra-Short ETF of the Dow be on this short list, it would mean that the Dow is a buy since the ETF would be a short and this list would have you short that ETF. A little convoluted, I know, but I want to show you what areas of the economy are under distribution and which are under accumulation.

None of these currently are to be taken as the trading list for tomorrow, although you may seem some that you do like immediately. This is simply a "get ready" list. To see the current list just click the link to current list and it will be brought up for you. Don't forget to check past lists. We made a quick 60% today alone in 30 minutes on PEIX, but it has since headed significantly higher.

    Short List
TICKER
ETF NAME
LAST CLOSE
LAST VOLUME








AAXJ
iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index
57.71
1291




AGQ
Proshares Ultra Silver
67.32
2867




BGU
Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares
57.13
33070




BWX
SPDR Lehman International Treasury Bond Fund ETF
57.16
1938




DDM
ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF
45.53
17058




DIA
DIAMONDS Trust Series ETF
106.11
49119




DJP
iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN
43.28
3162




EDC
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3x Shares
151.2
5983




EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF
43.2
411203




ERX
Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares
46.22
18305




EWG
iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF
22.8
5236




EWM
iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund ETF
11.1
13992




EWQ
iShares MSCI France Index Fund ETF
27.09
1553




EWW
iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund ETF
51.34
11993




FAS
Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares
84.99
167390




FXA
Rydex CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF
92.48
1229




IAT
iShares Dow Jones US Regional Banks Index Fund ETF
22.39
2130




IHF
iShares Dow Jones US Health Care Providers Index Fund ETF
50.74
1526




ILF
iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund ETF
49.82
13536




IWM
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF
64.52
488117




IWR
iShares Russell MidCap Index Fund ETF
85.25
5811




IYE
iShares Dow Jones US Energy Sector Index Fund ETF
35.03
2008




IYG
iShares Dow Jones US Financial Services Index Fund ETF
57.04
3227




IYR
iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund ETF
46
106295




IYW
iShares Dow Jones US Technology Sector Index Fund ETF
58.21
5936




MDY
SPDRs S&P Midcap Trust Series ETF
136.51
12353




PGJ
PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio ETF
25.72
1287




PHD
Pioneer Floating Rate Trust
11.75
988




PIN
PowerShares India Portfolio ETF
22.98
2627




QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
61.43
50387




QQQQ
PowerShares QQQTrust Ser 1
46.55
888701




SMH
HOLDRS Semiconductor ETF
28.52
208796




SPY
SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Series ETF
114.57
1263692




SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P 500
40.37
102506




UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P500
163.6
12414




URE
ProShares Ultra Real Estate ETF
6.91
104023




USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF
34.54
2945




UWM
ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 ETF
30.3
21737




UYG
ProShares Ultra Financials
6.15
141654




UYM
ProShares Ultra Basic Materials
37
25819




VBR
Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF
56.24
1784




XLF
SPDRs Select Sector Financial ETF
15.22
908750




XLY
SPDRs Select Sector Consumer Discretionary ETF
30.39
64380




XME
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF
58.73
39158




XRT
SPDR S&P Retail ETF
36.52
112515

Again, the ETFs below are ones I consider to be a "buy" whether they are Ultra-short or long. You will see some repeats such as short the Dow above and buy the Ultra-short Dow below; this is just further confirmation of what we are seeing in the markets. I'll update the lists further tonight, but obviously this is a time for a little caution on the long side of the market.

Long List
TICKER
ETF NAME
LAST CLOSE
LAST VOLUME








BGZ
Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x
15.67
39900




DOG
ProShares Short Trust Dow30
51.34
1451




DRV
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares
12.93
17218




DUG
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas
11.42
25216




DXD
ProShares UltraShort Dow 30
28.31
24558




EDZ
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x
4.39
20360




EEV
Ultrashort Msci Emerg Mrkt
9.99
7951




ERY
Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares
9.63
14088




EUO
ProShares UltraShort Euro
18.49
5104




FAZ
Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares
16.81
415538




FXP
ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF
7.7
34483




PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ ETF
42.9
3287




QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
18.38
137251




REW
ProShares UltraShort Technology
21.87
1185




RWM
ProShares Short Russell2000
42.75
1563




SCO
ProShares UltraShort DJ-AIG Crude Oil
12.53
22058




SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
33.14
196923




SEF
ProShares Short Financials
42.38
987




SH
ProShares Short S&P500 ETF
51.12
7810




SKF
ProShares UltraShort Financials
22.08
74010




SMN
ProShares Ultrashort Basic Material
7.35
15068




SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500
33.4
16334




SRS
ProShares UltraShort Real Estate
7.48
139677




SSG
ProShares UltraShort Semiconductor
17.54
2763




TWM
ProShares UltraShort Russell2000
23.55
32978




TZA
Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x
8.85
190041




UNG
US Nat Gas FD ETF
10.41
279208




UUP
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
22.84
73740




YCS
ProShares UltraShort Yen
21.22
1571




ZSL
Proshares Ultrashort Silver
3.97
11065