Even intraday, this market is punishing anyone trying to navigate it. This is the most ridiculous manipulation I've seen in a top and truly it ought to be investigated by the SEC. With all their circuit breaker rules, why they allow this kind of senseless volatility to exist for the sole reason of stripping people of their accounts is beyond me, except for when I consider the fact that the government is complicit in these events or at least turns a blind eye to them. This is why we do not chase every 200 point day up or down. As I have recently pointed out, over the last 4 weeks, the market has gained no ground, yet we have seen the S&P rack up 29.13% up or down combined and 315.37 S&P points up or down and a net move over the period of +0.09% That's a lot of movement for not even 1%! That's what I call a meat grinder and that doesn't even take into account the intraday highs and lows-you could probably double those numbers!
Tonight I've taken some of the positions I posted about a week ago and updated them to reflect the market's move since then with new stops and entries, many can be entered now.
The end of day rally has me wondering what they intend to pull out of their hat in the a.m. Maybe a gap up and a bearish engulfing candle of that hanging man in most of the indices? That would be nice, at least we'd have some follow through and in our direction as well.
This is exactly the reason we have our core trending shorts at 50% and not 75 or 100%, the market needs to follow through and show us before we commit the rest of the position. Please consider not reacting to every shuck and jive of this market, that is exactly what they want you to do. Be patient and follow your risk management plan.
check out tonight's updated list. If this market does follow through on the negative divergence and hanging man, they should be in perfect position to make some money. This is not a market well suited to any kind of trading at this point, as today showed, even day traders can't hold a position more than a few hours without getting whipsawed. This is not by chance, it is by design.
Also check out the longs I put up last night in metals and mining, the momo crowd should be back and URRE that jumped 34%, was a long on 6/2's list. I hope someone got a pice of that one.
Look for an update in the a.m. I can't imagine the market will not have a reaction to the unemployment #'s that came out today, or at least that they won't use them to create even more volatility.
Translate
Risk Management
Get the Most Out of Your Experience
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 1
- * Understanding the Head-Fake Move Part 2
- * The Holy Grail of Investing and Trading-MUST READ-MUST UNDERSTAND IF YOU WANT TO EVER MAKE CONSISTENT MONEY IN THE MARKETS
- * Member's Video-SWING TRADE ONE ENTRY SYSTEM
- * Placing Stops-What you should consider...
- * A Currency Crisis
- * A Currency Crisis Continued...
Email Me
My Charting Software
3C Quick Start
Many of the charts you see here at WOWS are my proprietary indicator 3C which reveals underlying institutional money movements and often contradicts price. To understand the annotations made on charts, you must first understand that 3C has no numerical value, it is a pure divergence indicator. Positive divergences represent accumulation by smart money, negative divergences represent distribution by smart money and when 3C trades with price, that is trend confirmation.
The chart annotation system is simple; white arrows represent relative positive divergences, red arrows represent relative negative divergences and green arrows represent trend confirmation. When 3C is in a white or red box, that represents a leading positive or negative divergence, leading divergences are the most powerful.
We analyse 3C in multiple timeframes, the longer the timeframe the stronger the accumulation. 1-2 min timeframes represent intraday moves, a 5 min timeframe can represent a day or two and 15 min timeframes average trends of a swing trade nature. 30 and 60 min charts can move the market for a month or more and daily charts can be over a year.
You'll get use to seeing the charts and understanding how the multiple timeframe analysis works and works well.
Welcome to Wolf on Wall Street.
The trades featured here are meant to maximize returns with the least risk and highest probabilities. Unless otherwise mentioned, all trades are meant to be executed at market. I prefer long-term trending trades which perform well in rising markets, but really stand out in declining markets. However, we get occasional one day gifts 30,40,60% 1-day gains. I'd urge you to consider taking some or all off the table in such cases, the markets don't give gifts like that often or for very long. Most of the returns that make the system outperform so well come in short-entry trades. If you are opposed to short trades, this is not the system for you, unless you are ok with buying an inverse ETF. If you would like more information about the truth about shorting stocks, just email me.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
Risk management. I recommend a specific and consistent risk management approach to all positions. In most cases we try for 2% risk money (2% of portfolio) unless such a position size exceeds 15-20% of overall portfolio in actual position size. Each trader is different and each has a different allowance of open trades. I like to keep the overall money in the trade around 10-15% of portfolio per position in case of gaps against you. Stops are generally executed at the end of day and I personally never place a stop order, all my stops are mental; remember, the middle man gets to see everyone's cards. When you are not in tune with the market or opportunities just aren't that spectacular, I take my risk per position down to 1% or even half a percent of portfolio value.
Each trader is different and must determine their own level of comfort with risk. I do have a channel stop which I provide to TeleChart/StockFinder users for automated stops, I appreciate you using my links to sign up if you do. The Trend Channel catches trends and works well as it automatically adjusts for each stock's volatility. Arbitrary exits based on nervousness about the markets WILL decrease the portfolio performance dramatically. This system will not ever get you in at market bottoms or tops. The recent 1 year performance against the Russell 2k buy and hold had the system beating it by 3:1. Ultimately it is up to you as to how you proceed, but I'm always available to help you determine what might work best for you.
I do use other scans and systems when market conditions warrant their use and may change strategy with market conditions.
The MOST IMPORTANT tool you have to bring you long term success is RISK MANAGEMENT. There are plenty of articles linked at Trade-Guild.net on Risk Management. We can be wrong 75% of the time and still outperform the market with solid, consistent risk management.
Position Sizing
The position sizes noted in the positions @ 2% risk of portfolio are based on a $20,000 portfolio-adjust as needed. Due to tight stops, there is the possibility, even probability that one position could take up the entire portfolio. You need to decide how many positions you want to trade and reduce the position size according to that. For instance, if you want to trade 5 positions in a $20,000 portfolio, no one position should be valued at more than $4,000-not risk money or 2% rule, but share price entry x shares.
Blog Archive
- ► 2014 (2868)
- ► 2013 (5102)
- ► 2012 (5120)
- ► 2011 (4731)
Useful Links
My Blog List
-
-
Futures Update BR-EXIT Edition - So the conventional wisdom couldn't have been more wrong. Those chasing risk and closing hedges couldn't be in a worse place right now. I would still remin...7 years ago
