MCP is a long equity position, it's been in a base area and as an inexpensive stock, getting slammed around pretty hard, but it still looks like it has a decent chance here, I still like it.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
MCP Request
I'm just able to get in to my gmail now so I'll try to get to emails shortly.
MCP is a long equity position, it's been in a base area and as an inexpensive stock, getting slammed around pretty hard, but it still looks like it has a decent chance here, I still like it.
I'd like to see this candle turn in to a reversal candle with a higher close.
MCP 60 min chart looks like downside momentum is falling off as each candle has a smaller body.
MCP 1 min is positive
2 min is much more positive
MCP 3 min looks good here so it seems downside momentum should fall off soon.
MCP's longer term -basing chart at 30 mins is leading positive in a big way, so I still like this one
MCP is a long equity position, it's been in a base area and as an inexpensive stock, getting slammed around pretty hard, but it still looks like it has a decent chance here, I still like it.
GOOG P/L
Well it was a bit bigger than the portfolio was showing...
filled at $3.70, closer to 65%, but still around 1% of portfolio
GOOG Update
I think I'll just take the 4^ loss in the GOOG call position right now than risk it, but I will wait on the put position
Objectivity / Subjectivity-GOOG vs the Market
I have to do these things once in a while so I know there's a reason why I say , "I think the market is shot here, but that one market bellwether, GOOG that I just so happened to call a long position (call weekly option) on yesterday still looks good"
The market looks pretty much the same whether I use the SPY or DIA so I chose DIA because its the same indicator as GOOG for the same reason, because it's usually the best to use on large caps.
GOOG 1 min has a large positive here and only a very minor (pullback) negative
DIA 1 min has no positive at all and a negative
GOOG 2 min has a large positive leading divergence
DIA 2 min has a leading negative divergence
GOOG 3 mins has a decent leading positive divergence
DIA 3 mins has an even worse leading negative divergence
GOOG 3 mins has a large (short term) leading positive divergence
DIA 5 min has a large leading negative divergence that only moved in confirmation for a period, while still being leading negative
GOOG 10 min is leading negative , but has a short term positive divergence, this is different than
DIA 5 min because 3C was in confirmation with DIA while leading negative as it was moving in the same direction in the red box, GOOG has 3C moving positive in the red box vs the direction of GOOG at the same place.
DIA 10 min leading negative
So that's the reasoning behind thinking GOOG might still have a shot left here vs the market.
The market looks pretty much the same whether I use the SPY or DIA so I chose DIA because its the same indicator as GOOG for the same reason, because it's usually the best to use on large caps.
DIA 1 min has no positive at all and a negative
DIA 5 min because 3C was in confirmation with DIA while leading negative as it was moving in the same direction in the red box, GOOG has 3C moving positive in the red box vs the direction of GOOG at the same place.
So that's the reasoning behind thinking GOOG might still have a shot left here vs the market.
The market has just about had it
The charts are looking pretty bad for the market here, but GOOG still looks like it has some in the gas tank, I'm going to see if that changes with the market of if it really does still have some left.
Charts coming up....
Charts coming up....
GLD Update
I was just talking to a member yesterday about HFT's and how the market seems to fill all gaps since they started dominating trade, it seems as if every gap gets filled which is what most people have always expected, but it didn't use to always be so true-at least not to this extent. Before HFTs there were such things as breakaway and exhaustion gaps and they were reliable, now it's fairly certain that the gap will be filled, but there's little certainty as to when.
GLD has filled "most" of the gap today, perhaps it finishes the job, perhaps that's it, but GLD is starting to look pretty good as an add to or a new position for those interested (long) in this area.
GLD daily is pretty close to having filled the gap, but not quite there, if there are decent signals though, it's enough for me.
On a 5 min chart the gap of course looks a lot bigger...
The 1 min chart has gone positive since pulling back, the 2, 3 and 5 min charts aren't quite there yet, but I would consider at least a partial entry in the area.
The GLD 15 min chart has been the strongest GLD chart, it has pulled back along with price as you'd expect, but still looks great as far as the longer term trend in GLD is concerned, I'd consider phasing in to a new GLD position or adding to an existing one here, I'd prefer to save a little room to add on a little more downside, but I don't think it would stop me from getting involved here if I had an interest in GLD, which I do have, but I'm already involved.
Futures don't look like they are quite there, quite there yet, but working towards it.
GLD has filled "most" of the gap today, perhaps it finishes the job, perhaps that's it, but GLD is starting to look pretty good as an add to or a new position for those interested (long) in this area.
Futures don't look like they are quite there, quite there yet, but working towards it.
GOOG Update
Goog still looks like it's waiting to pop off to the upside, I'm not expecting a huge move, but there should be something to sell in to.
GOOG's intra day chart looks like it has been building tension like a spring all morning for a pop to the upside, I wouldn't expect it to last long so I might set some price alerts to sell calls in to price strength. We'll look at puts from there.
AAPL Update
I think AAPL can make some more head room to the upside, but for me, I just don't see the edge in holding it any longer, I'd be looking to exit soon.
Market Upate
All of the futures are showing a positive divergence intraday and should head up short;y from here
Wrapping it up-Futures
Yesterday was a strange day in the market (Monday), almost an ineffable strangeness; it was very much like the invisible hand was trying with all of its might to lift the averages, not to a mind numbing huge day up, but some modest target and being the SPX closed only 9 points away from a new high (about half a point), it would seem that this may have been what the market was striving for.
The market use to draft a lot better, if one average was up, the rest would draft off that one, don't get me wrong, there was still differences in relative performance, but green was green and red was red.
Yesterday it seemed like the SPX was the main index of interest for the invisible hand and there's nearly zero doubt in my mind that the movement in the VIX, some attempts to influence market moving currencies and even the rumor on Bloomberg about AAPL's cash/dividend possibility (although specifically targeting the NASDAQ 100 where AAPL carries nearly 20% of the average's weight and as the NDX was struggling badly to break out of the red) were all desperate attempts to achieve whatever upside goal those who pull the levers behind the red velvet curtain, had set-as if the market needed that same drafting.
I said during market hours yesterday that I would be very interested to see the daily closing stats and once I saw them, I felt like I understood a little more about why the market was so difficult to move, why the VIX had to be sent down to seven year lows, why the rumors about AAPL came out when they did, the market simply isn't in good shape and as already mentioned, even with 3 of the 4 large averages closing in the green, many metrics went downhill, most notably market breadth.
Today the market seemed like it had already spent a lot of the manipulative currency (not meant as a pun) trying to move the market yesterday and today there wasn't much left in that particular piggy bank.
The market was weak all around today, but it seemed particularly weak in the same two averages it struggled with yesterday, the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 (both closing red today), breadth suffered again today on a day when the volume was only modestly higher than yesterday's which was the lowest volume of the year. Today however in at least a couple of averages, the dominant price/volume relationship was "Close Down/Volume Up", which often acts as a short term 1-day oversold condition. Considering what I saw in GOOG and AAPL today, it wouldn't surprise me if that were true, but considering what I saw in the 3C charts of the averages, it wouldn't surprise me if that were only true for a short period of time, possibly even ending intraday tomorrow.
As for closing leading indicators, nothing really jumped off the charts, however they still weren't good. Today was a day for algo driven correlations and what seemed like more of arbitrage trading than anything else as I had pointed out in this post "Quick Market Update" with the comment, "The market looks a little overdone on the downside intraday when comparing to currencies, some 3C signals, etc."
If you want to see something you don't see every day, take a look at CONTEXT and what I believe you'll see is an arbitrage algo driven market.
Rarely do we see ES and the ES model track so incredibly close and during market hours no less.
As far as Leading Indicators, it's hard for them to diverge significantly when CONTEXT is so close, but they didn't need to (although many did) as they already have on a longer term basis.
Lets take a look at the specifics.
HIO going negative, especially in to the now famous closing ramp
HIO on a longer term chart over months, already having diverged significantly away from the SPX.
HYG pulling away from the SPX yesterday and continuing today, again specifically in to the closing ramp, HYG is already dislocated on a longer term basis.
FCT diverged intraday as well since yesterday, again another leading indicator moves down against the SPX closing ramp.
Yields also moving away from the SPX intraday.
So we'l see what the market, AAPL and GOOG have to offer in the very near term tomorrow, but for now the futures seem to be giving away more of the market's secrets just as the did last night.
ES leading negative 1 min in after hours, perhaps the reason why they were so in line with 3C today during regular hours was because of the apparent arbitrage trading seen above on the CONTEXT chart, however after the algos have gone to bed, it appears the distribution is back on.
ES 5 min chart in a deep leading negative divergence
TF/Russell 2k futures 1-min are also leading negative ever since regular hours trade ended.
The R2K 5 min futures are also leading negative just as the 5 min ES/SPX futures.
NQ/NDX futures 1 min are also leading negative, seemingly since regular hours trade ended.
And would you be surprised if I told you the NDX 5 min futures are also leading negative since regular hours trade ended?
None of the Currency pairs are doing anything spectacularly interesting at the moment, but are all in an area in which it wouldn't take much of a move for the FX pairs to have a very meaningful effect on the direction of trade.
Some of the most important information is located in the intraday updates, be sure to try to catch up with them.
Other than the ongoing story in China with some PIG virus, which could become a big inflationary story, Japan's ongoing efforts to try to talk the Yen lower until the new BOJ governors take control and whatever adventures of the European PIG or PIIGS rather, we'll just have to see what the overnight holds and how tomorrow fares. My guess is we do see some short lived upside, as I already showed you today, there are larger structural problems in the market that are far beyond the movement of a single day, at least any single day's upside.
If anything develops before I turn in, I'll bring it to you.
Look for MBA Purchase Applications, Retail Sales and Import/Export prices tomorrow pre-market, during market hours we have Business Inventories, the Wednesday EIA Petroleum report, a 10-year Treasury auction (which the F_E_D will end up monetizing despite swearing under oath not to do such things that allow our government to spend at will knowing the F_E_D will make sure there's enough money created, whether via printing or digital 1's and zero's) and lastly the Treasury Budget.
The market use to draft a lot better, if one average was up, the rest would draft off that one, don't get me wrong, there was still differences in relative performance, but green was green and red was red.
Yesterday it seemed like the SPX was the main index of interest for the invisible hand and there's nearly zero doubt in my mind that the movement in the VIX, some attempts to influence market moving currencies and even the rumor on Bloomberg about AAPL's cash/dividend possibility (although specifically targeting the NASDAQ 100 where AAPL carries nearly 20% of the average's weight and as the NDX was struggling badly to break out of the red) were all desperate attempts to achieve whatever upside goal those who pull the levers behind the red velvet curtain, had set-as if the market needed that same drafting.
I said during market hours yesterday that I would be very interested to see the daily closing stats and once I saw them, I felt like I understood a little more about why the market was so difficult to move, why the VIX had to be sent down to seven year lows, why the rumors about AAPL came out when they did, the market simply isn't in good shape and as already mentioned, even with 3 of the 4 large averages closing in the green, many metrics went downhill, most notably market breadth.
Today the market seemed like it had already spent a lot of the manipulative currency (not meant as a pun) trying to move the market yesterday and today there wasn't much left in that particular piggy bank.
The market was weak all around today, but it seemed particularly weak in the same two averages it struggled with yesterday, the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 (both closing red today), breadth suffered again today on a day when the volume was only modestly higher than yesterday's which was the lowest volume of the year. Today however in at least a couple of averages, the dominant price/volume relationship was "Close Down/Volume Up", which often acts as a short term 1-day oversold condition. Considering what I saw in GOOG and AAPL today, it wouldn't surprise me if that were true, but considering what I saw in the 3C charts of the averages, it wouldn't surprise me if that were only true for a short period of time, possibly even ending intraday tomorrow.
As for closing leading indicators, nothing really jumped off the charts, however they still weren't good. Today was a day for algo driven correlations and what seemed like more of arbitrage trading than anything else as I had pointed out in this post "Quick Market Update" with the comment, "The market looks a little overdone on the downside intraday when comparing to currencies, some 3C signals, etc."
If you want to see something you don't see every day, take a look at CONTEXT and what I believe you'll see is an arbitrage algo driven market.
As far as Leading Indicators, it's hard for them to diverge significantly when CONTEXT is so close, but they didn't need to (although many did) as they already have on a longer term basis.
Lets take a look at the specifics.
So we'l see what the market, AAPL and GOOG have to offer in the very near term tomorrow, but for now the futures seem to be giving away more of the market's secrets just as the did last night.
None of the Currency pairs are doing anything spectacularly interesting at the moment, but are all in an area in which it wouldn't take much of a move for the FX pairs to have a very meaningful effect on the direction of trade.
Some of the most important information is located in the intraday updates, be sure to try to catch up with them.
Other than the ongoing story in China with some PIG virus, which could become a big inflationary story, Japan's ongoing efforts to try to talk the Yen lower until the new BOJ governors take control and whatever adventures of the European PIG or PIIGS rather, we'll just have to see what the overnight holds and how tomorrow fares. My guess is we do see some short lived upside, as I already showed you today, there are larger structural problems in the market that are far beyond the movement of a single day, at least any single day's upside.
If anything develops before I turn in, I'll bring it to you.
Look for MBA Purchase Applications, Retail Sales and Import/Export prices tomorrow pre-market, during market hours we have Business Inventories, the Wednesday EIA Petroleum report, a 10-year Treasury auction (which the F_E_D will end up monetizing despite swearing under oath not to do such things that allow our government to spend at will knowing the F_E_D will make sure there's enough money created, whether via printing or digital 1's and zero's) and lastly the Treasury Budget.
