Daily Wrap

Tonight is date night so I'm going to keep it short.

Just some fun factoids, since the NASDAQ hit 5000, the Dow has lost 611 points and we're just getting started, this is what I mean when I say, "Price is deceiving", what's going on below the surface often tells the true tail and it has been that 60 min ES/SPX futures that has been confirming what we expected back in January when we forecast the range would be broken to the upside before any real downside would begin.

The Dow and S&P are seeing the worst performance in 2 months with both below their 50-day moving averages and joining transports in red year to date. It's amazing how fast things change from a new high at a head fake move to that being a great downside timing signal which is why I like to use them.

One of the big problems is excessive leverage whether NYSE margin interest or the carry trades, there's a massive $USD shortage and it's forcing an unwind of carry trades which means that the positions bought with the proceeds have to be closed as well (equities). I suspect this is just going to get worse so we'll be keeping an eye on that as the $USD appreciates at the fastest pace in 34 years.

Yields are down as we expected, Credit led the market (HYG) as we expected and on a short term basis, 3C picked up where it left off if you saw last night's post calling for weakness that was evident in futures as of the Daily Wrap post, then they really fell apart after midnight.

We are still looking for a bounce to re-open QQQ and maybe AAPL puts as well as any other assets that are offering a nice looking opportunity and timely.

There really wasn't much in the way of 3C strength anywhere to call for a bounce, a lot of it was pieces of the puzzle, the way price moved laterally, the intraday breadth, but there were a few other signs.

 Our SPX:RUT ratio was supportive of the market intraday, but that's about all.

Our Pro sentiment indicators were also supportive of a dead cat type bounce.

HY Credit is not going along with any risk and continues to lead lower.

Even though yields were down today as we expect, they are still mildly supportive bigger picture, 5 year.

Intraday though, nothing-30 year

Commodities led on the way up and are leading on the way down.

Intraday, they flattened out, while not positive, they are giving the market a chance to try to bounce,  I obviously don't think it's anything more than a dead cat bounce, normal market movement.

Any slight3C strength the market tried to build like SPY...

 SPY 1 min intraday...

Was torn up at the close, you can see on the SPY, but even more in IWM...
IWM leading negative in to the close and just about destroying even a 1 min positive divergence intraday.

However, you know the case I made and why as well as why I chose to close the AAPL and QQQ puts when I did, dimply so I can add them back on a bounce.

To that end other than a few leading indicators, price and volume acting like a bounce is a possibility here,  the biggest indication of a short term oversold bounce was in breadth.

The Dominant P/V Relationship was in everything except the Russell 2000, the Dow saw 27 stocks! The NDX, 88! The SPX 333! The relationship was Close Down/Volume Up which is the most oversold condition among the 4 relationships and the second most bullish short term.

Even worse, all 9 of 9 S&P sectors closed red and to my disbelief, of the 238 Morningstar groups I track, ONLY 5 ENDED GREEN !!!

That's a massively oversold 1-day condition that should end with a green close tomorrow which plays right in to out hands.

There's really nothing in the charts that trumps that on a short term basis.

As for that ES 60 min chart and the divergence that has been warning us to be ready for this (which I like because it's just management now, not a lot of detective work)...

ES 60 min with price catching down to 3C and the entire head fake move in SPX retraced. All of the gains since February 2nd (actually on the whole year) are wiped out, any long chasing them and not having sold is underwater just like that.

This has to be one of the ugliest markets I can recall seeing and how quickly it turned, but this was expected before the Feb. cycle even began.

I just hope we get a chance to add some additional positions, I wouldn't have closed AAPL/QQQ puts today if I didn't think we'd get better entries with longer expirations. Tomorrow will tell, assuming the global carry trade doesn't collapse overnight.

When I get back from date night, I'll check on futures and let you know if I see anything like last night even though the weakness didn't increase until after midnight.

Have a great night.

Market Update

I believe this morning's AAPL/QQQ Put closure was well played and good timing to re-enter the positions on a near term (tomorrow) bounce, but not a bounce that would be of any concern to me on the upside, just the normal short term oversold jiggles that we were talking about last night.

I looked at Leading Indicators which I'l post and they look supportive or at least not blocking the possibility of a bounce.

The great thing about this scenario is it brings the trade to us if it bounces at a better entry and much lower risk and if it doesn't bounce, then our core shorts just continue to work so it's either an additional opportunity or no harm done and we keep moving in the right direction.

There are a few divergences that may be enough to get the job done,  they are far from a divergence that I'd point out and call as a short term piggy back trade (bounce), there's just too much negative stuff in the mix to make them worth any kind of risk or probability, but looking at it from a "If it comes to us great, if it doesn't no harm no foul" perspective, it works perfectly.

I'll show you the leading indicators after the close, they aren't screaming bounce, but they are supportive enough, we have the gap in place, it all looks decent for a new add to or new opening position move, I'm specifically looking to add QQQ puts and/or AAPL puts on a discount/bounce.

I'd say that's our near term highest probability on a very short term basis, but I would not trade against the stage 4 decline, there's too much on the downside probabilities to make that risk worthwhile.

I'll have those charts out in a few minutes.

QQQ Put Addition Trade Set-up

While there may be many assets that we could consider besides the Q's on a bounce, like the inverse ETFS such as SQQQ, SRTY, FAZ, TECS, SPXU or the short term VIX futures like VXX/UVXY, I'm not ruling any of those out, I'm just using the QQQ puts that I want to replace as an example asset.

Looking at the price chart, we are deep enough in to stage 4 that a bounce here would be of little consequence, see last night's Daily Wrap for the September example that was a little too hot and a little too cold for our current situation, but a reasonably close proxy.

Just looking at the QQQ price chart (and remember from my point of view, I would not trade anything long, but rather sell or short in to any price strength, I want to trade with the current stage which is decline, anything other than that better have a strong edge as it runs counter to the stage we are in), this looks like a reasonable area and target...

 QQQ daily chart wit the range, the head fake above the range and while the SPX has already retraced all of the February 2nd rally to all time highs and then some, the Q's haven't quite made it. There's a gap just above from today's gap down, this would make for an excellent upside target and a new QQQ put position,  the beauty of this is "If it does not make the move, no harm no foul". Price either comes to us on out terms or we wait for the next trade, nothing risked, nothing lost in this situation.

On a QQQ 60 min chart you see the heavier volume as support is broken and stoops are hit, then additional volume at what looks like a short term capitulation low.

Thus a bounce in to today's gap, makes for an excellent QQQ put entry at a discount. Since we are not going long on this, there's no harm if the trade set-up doesn't work as planned and instead heads lower.

If there were strong bounce signals, I might put out a scalp trade (long) in to the gap, I don't see signals strong enough to warrant such risk taking, so I'd just see (set alerts) if the gap is filled, if not, then core shorts are still performing.

 This is my custom TICK/SPY indicator which is showing improving intraday breadth which makes sense with everything else starting with the reason for closing the AAPL and QQQ put to the prospect of opening a new position at a better entry and a discount on the puts.

Other than the intraday breadth improving, there are no real strong bounce signals. This doesn't reduce the probabilities of a bounce here, it just shows the market is weak and there's no justification for trying a long piggy back trade.

This 5 min , small QQQ positive divergence at a flat area in price is the best we have for a bounce signal, really there's not much more.

 Remember our UVXY long (2x long VXX/VIX short term futures) ?

This 15 min VXX chart is SCREAMING for an upside move.

The inverse XIV, short VIX short term futures on a 15 min chart is sending the exact opposite signal confirming our VXX/UVXY long position.

I can't find much of anything short term that says market bounce, it just doesn't have the strength which isn't surprising in the middle of a stage 4 decline (or start).

TLT (20+ year bond fund) which we expected to see a pullback and accumulation and then a trend higher has done both thus far and is just missing the trend higher. The gap in TLT, a pullback and bounce in the market near term makes sense here too, but there just aren't many or any short term signals pointing to that, there are a lot of other things like TICK or the price pattern today, the deep sell-off in such a short period that all make sense, but not great short term positive divergences yet and that goes for other assets like HYG.

So if the trade comes to us , GREAT. If it continues lower (the market), our core short positions will continue to benefit and ultimately we are looking for a break below the 2015 range and a move to or below the October lows.

AAPL Update and AAPL/QQQ P/L

*I've been trying to get this post out for well over an hour, hopefully some of it still makes sense,

As warned earlier, I was looking for some downward momentum to close AAPL and QQQ puts in to this morning, QQQ & AAPL March 20 Put Management and I'm sure I could have squeezed more juice out of them, in fact I may be dead wrong about even closing them, but we live on the right side of the chart and you make the best decisions you can with the information you have.

My main concern with both positions was time decay, I like to have a lot of time on options even if I'm almost positive I don't need it, this has made all the difference between a losing and winning position over the long haul for me and every time I violate that precept, I end up paying for it so why not stick with what works (for me any way, the key is always to find what works for you and hopefully our analysis gives you an edge in making that work better).

As for the positions and the P/L, as you know half of AAPL was taken off the table on March 5th at about a +10% gain pre-earnings, that half was added back yesterday.

As for today, here's the P/L for both,

AAPL came out to a +22% gain, an aded 10% just for waiting for that intraday downside momentum.

The Q's came out to a +48% gain, another +10% for waiting a bit longer for the intraday turn down as I always want to close puts in to a move lower rather than wait for them to turn sideways or start up as both are doing this very moment.

Additionally I was watching volume pretty closely, increased volume was a cue as to when I'd want to pack it in on an intraday tactical basis, but this same concept holds for macro trends , say a daily chart or even a 5-day chart.

Without even using 3C, I knew the probabilities of a turn to the downside were higher as we have a pretty significant move this morning and volatile markets are volatile even intraday, but before any upside volatility would be likely to begin, a wider "W" base intraday would be the most probable outcome, therefore I just set alerts below the area when I decided I'd be wrapping up the positions at "A" and then watched for volume and/or fading price momentum which could also be done with a Rate of Change indicator applied to price on an intraday setting (if you can't apply ROC directly to price, apply it to an invisible 1-bar moving average of price which is exactly the same, 1 bar has no averaging, but allows you to attach ROC as a child indicator).

Did I get the best exit, no and I knew that there was always going to be a strong chance that I wouldn't.

However this is why I wanted to get out of the March 20th which has the F_E_D ahead which could be a couple of days of knee jerk, even if it resolves lower with a crash, that essentially wipes out the options on time decay from a couple of days of the market being flat ahead of the meeting and a possible knee jerk so I want to re-establish the positions, but I need more time on the expiration.

AAPL...

I've made the argument and even shown the evidence that AAPL is turning from a former MSFT growth monster to a MSFT range-ish blue-chip, AAPL is making that same transition and if you look back at MSFT, they had an even bigger momentum story than AAPL, but once they declared a dividend, everything changed and they became a blue chip rather than a momentum monkey.

I was going to talk a little about AAPL's future and what they are doing which I don't approve of, I think they rightfully belong on the DOW with the other former growth stories gone flat and turned dividend income stocks. I decided it serves no purpose for me to go on a rant, but I'll just say from a consumer's perspective, the mystique and the "cool" factor of AAPL is long gone (the days when being an AAPL owner of a mac made you a strange agent). AAPL's product line went from Revolutionary to evolutionary and they are playing catch-up on just about every product they make. I have used Macs for about 10 years and love them, but I'm having a much harder time justifying paying a thousand dollar premium for a machine that for all intents and purposes, doesn't offer what some of the PC's do now, the only thing that I really like is the OS and I've heard the new OS is not so great, sort of like MSFT's newer APP based OS, so is it really worth $1000 more when the main thing I'm interested in is Flash hard-drives I can get on virtually any brand? I'm not sure it's worth it.

As for the I-phone, I had been with them since the first one, but 2 years ago I switched to the Galaxy. Is the Galaxy as intuitive and clean as the I-Phone? No, but it allows me to do a lot more without Apple controlling every aspect of it, if I buy music I own it and can take it wherever I want and do whatever I want with it. Besides, AAPL was way behind the curve and is now just catching up to what Galaxy was a year ago, when the new Galaxy comes out (the 5 is kind of a flop IMO), it's going to put AAPL behind the curve again with just the "Apple" branding, but again, as they have tried to make products like the I-Phone C's, a phone for everyone and now this insanely expensive watch that I can get a lot cheaper in other brands without an AAPL, do I really want to pay for the branding? Not after the Turlington event, wow, AAPL products use to stand on their own and she'd just have been a distraction, what happened? They lost Steve Jobs is what happened IMO. OK, sorry about that.

 As for the trend that broke out just a bit before the market's Feb. cycle, the 1-day Trend Channel has held it since January, it just broke last week at the red arrow, that means the Trend Channel is telling us that something in AAPL's price ROC has changed character to the tune of 2 standard deviations of the typical 10-day rolling trend and that's a change in character.

On this 15 min chart, this pierce of support on that volume looks like a good place to accumulate a small position and bounce AAPL, that means that looks like a good opportunity for me to establish a new put position in to a small bounce on price strength and a put discount a  the additional time/expiration that I would like.

 Yesterday I showed the intraday AAPL chart 1 min and said, what you see is what you get, there were no divergence that suggested anything other than what was happening with price was setting up for a surprise, but today that's a little different with this intraday positive and since we started the day with a deep discount on the averages and AAPL, it's likely that we get at least an intraday bounce which may be my chance to re-establish the new position.

AAPL 2 min positive today...

The 5 min negative in AAPL looks about right considering the proceeding trend following. I'd like to see a move to the upside just to re-establish those puts.

AAPL is not worth it to me for the amount of assets that need to be committed for a core short, but it is worthwhile as a trading position with some leverage, meaning options, thus I'd prefer other assets that have a better risk/reward ratio for core trend positions and just use leverage to trade around AAPL and I'll show you why in a moment.

 AAPL 15 min, note the base area or accumulation area in white and the relative negative divegrence that is starting to lead. This tells me AAPL is not among my first choice of "MATURE" distribution assets, that it's likely to have more chop than trend in the coming weeks/months, thus I'd rather trade that volatility short term using leverage and save the trend positions for assets that are further along the process.

 AAPL 30 min shows the same thing with an accumulation area and a head fake move below support at the yellow arrow just before the transition to stage 2. Again, we have a nice relative divegrence, but not a leading one whereas many other assets are deeper in to their tops than AAPL.

The 4 hour AAPL chart tells me it's very likely AAPL is topping here, but looking at price, it would seem reasonable that we maya be at the top of a head in a H&S price pattern or some other price pattern's top, which means more volatility as the right side of the top forms, that's not ideal as a trending core position, but it is ideal as a shorter term trading position with leverage, thus the puts.

I hope anyone who took the AAPL or QQQ puts did as well if not better! There's just too much risk for me right now with a March 20th expiration, this is all about simply fixing that expiration problem.

Quick Market Update

If you were able to do the hard work, and that means shorting in to price strength, the chimney head fake moves, last Monday's market strength, if you were able to do that knowing the 60 min chart was the highest probability resolution to the downside, then you are sitting on positions now (or have been and should be relieved) that just need to be managed for the most part.

We saw a lot of Igloo/Chimney tops the week previous to last and were looking for early strength last week early in the week, Monday, so if you did the hard thing which is always the hard thing as the market never makes it easy (usually your emotions are the best reverse indicator when they reach extremes and you feel like all hope is lost, that's usually when you want to be taking action that directly contradicts everything you fear).

Otherwise, we are in stage 4 decline of the cycle from Feb. 2nd.

I can search for the actual post, but I can tell you exactly what I said before the February cycle/bounce, I said that the 2015 range (which was horrible price action for the start of the year, no Santa Rally, no January effect) would have to be taken out on the upside in a head fake move before any downside price action that would actually hold would take place as the range was becoming or was at that point, that obvious that it's virtually free money for smart money and it's a fantastic set-up for the smarter portion of smart money like Dan Loeb, Carl Icahn, etc. to sell in to.

If we go back to the original post which I can find if anyone would like to see it if you don't recall, let me know, the range on the upside had to be taken out on a head fake before we'd move to the downside, there's just too many goodies and opportunities above such an obvious range.

 Daily SPX 500 with the obvious 2015 range, the head fake move we called for BEFORE it started and as a cycle, it's now well within stage 4 as it has retraced the entire move and then some.

The idea was that the upside head fake, just like on an intraday chart, would create a bull trap. Have you seen bullish sentiment lately? Job WELL DONE. Now a move below the range which was the forecast back in January after a head fake move, is the target, this not only creates a larger short term stage 4 decline, but likely a primary trend stage 4 decline since the October lows broke the trendline and made a lower low.

This is how a bull trap's momentum works. once prices move inside the range and below, the bulls who chased there head fake above the range are trapped, that's the entire point of the strategic exercise, although there are tactical considerations as well such as selling in to strength or shorting.

Only after the fact do we see the forecast was correct, but the data that showed the probabilities was in place BEFORE the fact.

The simple fact is, YOU GET PAID TO TAKE RISKS. Often those risks are going to be diametrically opposed to every emotional cell in your body screaming you don't believe it and this is not how it's suppose to be. If the market is moving in a comfortable way and you don't feel that conflict, you are on the side of the bag holders and enjoy the good feeling while it lasts because it will turn on you.

The obvious question is, "Then why not just trade around all of it?", some people can, emotionally very few people can disconnect themselves from price action to see the bigger picture, it feels to good and it's too difficult to counter with objective data, it's a lot easier to listen to the talking heads on CN??BC telling you you are doing the right thing. That's not objective analysis, but it is human emotion and that's why these price patterns repeat over the centuries, because human nature, even in a world of HFTs programmed by humans , NEVER CHANGES. I suspect that's also part of the reason that most people who make money in a bull market lose it ALLL in a bear market, denial.

Quickly...I don't have great intraday signals, but VXX is looking even better (UVXY too) and XIV is looking even worse. There are mixed intraday signals among the averages.

Remember why I wanted to close the puts before the market turned lateral today? Well it has turned lateral inviting a change of character intraday, I'm not worried about it and maybe it's strong enough that I can replace the AAPL and QQQ puts with the longer expiration which was the point of closing them earlier before this lateral trend developed.



 ES/SPX futures 1 min shows a pretty clean positive divergence since the cash open at the white arrow, this is one of the better looking intraday charts.

The lateral price trend is most probably a small intraday base being worked out for an intraday bounce, rising volatility doesn't mean that everything is smooth and easy sailing for your shorts if you watch price action too close, if you back away a bit and don't micro manage, you should be just fine, but Wall St. makes its money by taking yours so they'll shake the tree every which way to make as many apples fall as possible because your loss is their gain.

 Es 5 min had a clear divergence that led to lower prices and it is clearly in line and confirming the trend since on this chart, this is what I'm interested in and I don't need to micro manage positions, intraday volatility is largely noise and it doesn't interest me beyond how I can use it to my advantage or if not, then just sit back and maintain my cool. "SIT TIGHT".

 NASDAQ 100 futures 7 min also shows the same negative divergence at the same place and the same downside confirmation, beautiful and exactly what we want to see in stage 4.


 Russell 2000 futures and the head fake or early strength from last Monday,  remember the concept that head fake moved DIRECTLY PRECEDE a change in trend? There it is.

Otherwise, 3C is in confirmation of the move to the downside, exactly what we want to see.

And the ES 60 min. I know this is hard to take as objective evidence when CNBC is saying, "All time new high" and "This time it's different", but it's not. I've shown this chart for at least 2 weeks, now you can see that it was right on. Probabilities!

So I suspect an upside intraday bounce, but other than that, I see strength in VXX and UVXY and weakness in XIV, this looks like the UVXY long will be fine even among an intraday pullback, other than that, there's just a bunch of nose, other than the price trend also looking like an intraday bounce.

I'm sticking with the highest probabilities above on the 60 min chart, we'll look at it again in a few weeks and you'll see it was telling you the entire time where te probabilities were, it's just that they are never emotionally easy to take on.

Closing Down the AAPL and QQQ Puts for now

QQQ & AAPL March 20 Put Management

I'm watching both AAPL puts that were added to yesterday after taking half off the table last week, Adding AAPL March 20 $130 Puts Back as well as the March 20th QQQ $108 puts, both at a nice gain, Q's near 40+% and AAPL just in the low teens.

I'm watching for a turn to the downside, maybe toward $106 in the Q's and $124.80 in AAPL, around those areas, depending on what I see, I'll likely close both positions as the March 20th expiration is coming up and so is the F_O_M_C meeting which is a wild card, one comma out of place can change the market's entire perception, while it may not change reality and we know prices are all based on perception, less and less on reality.


My options tactics have been over the last several years to get in and get out as fast as possible, before the first significant correction on momentum, exactly when everyone else is buying puts or holding them. The last thing I want to get stuck with is a consolidation, this isn't even about the position going against me, but the time decay in a consolidation.

I'm not saying this is the best way to make the largest gain in options, but it has been one of the most consistent ways to keep gains coming in rather than "Letting it ride".

This isn't about any forecast changes or anything else. You may recall from yesterday's Adding AAPL March 20 $130 Puts Back post that I was agonizing over whether to go with the further out April monthly expiration or add back the March monthly, I went with the March monthly.

However, I'd be looking to re-establish either or both positions, just with a new strike at the right time and a further out expiration.

Just a head's up.

USO UPDATE

I was trying to get a USO update out late yesterday, but was also very busy watching the market for the signs of what was to come today on a short term basis, apparently the concept of 3C picking up where it left off and yesterday's weakness as well as last night's futures weakness won out.

The important thing about asset stages (1-4) is knowing where you are, then you know where you are likely to go next. We are in a stage 4 decline area (fairly early in to it) of a short term trend (the February cycle), but we are also late stage  3 of a primary trend (as in bull/bear market) that this short term stage 4 trend could easily slide in to a primary stage 4 trend.

While there are always counter trend trades, for the most part you won't see me adding short positions during stage 1 or stage 2, I'm generally pretty quiet, if you decided to go long at stage 1 then it's just management, but there's overall risk because of where the primary trend is in its cycle. However at stage 3 and the head fake of stage 3 which we saw the week prior to last, that's when I'm more actively putting out positions as you've probably noticed. When we are in stage 2 you have to assume the trend wil be up or at least lateral and not conducive to entering a new short for timing purposes, if you look at it from a primary trend perspective, then we are high in the stage 3 cycle and almost anywhere in the area (even short term stage 2 ) is ultimately going to be fine for a trend short. 

However in a short term stage 4 with the primary trend where it is, you have to assume weakness and that's why I kept saying I would not buy this, but sell in to any strength or short in to it, that's the probabilities of the stage/trend.

In any case, I wasn't in such a rush yesterday to get out the USO post after I took a quick look at the charts because there wasn't anything that needed immediate attention and the only trade right now other than the current long (1/2 position) would be pretty speculative and from the risk:reward perspective, gets a little dicey.

 This was what a quick glance at the 1 min chart looked like, I could tell the highest probability near term was that this trend on this timeframe continue for now.

Here's a closer look at exactly what yesterday's USO 1 min chart looked like.

The longer term (30 min-2 hour) charts are still very positive, but at this point we are much bigger than any base that would be needed to stage a counter trend bounce so as I have been suspecting more and more recently, I believe we are in the process of carving out a sustainable bottom that can hold a trend reversal in oil, but although I'd say we are about half way or more there, we aren't completely there and for that reason, I don't mind holding a 1/2 position long for some bounces or to build out the larger primary trend position once we get a move to the lower end of the base area. As you know, like biotechs, oil can be very sensitive to sudden fundamental changes or news.

 It has been charts like this 15 min that show the positive divergence/base and a downside reversal which doesn't look like heavy selling/distribution, it looks like a base/range is being created and smart money simply isn't biting above a certain level.

I'll keep track of USO for any swing moves in the mean time, the most likely would be a swing to the lower end of the range / base, but this is not the area I like to get involved in any size unless we are at the end of the stage (1 base) and ready to transition to stage 2 mark up, otherwise, probabilities are that you'll be sitting in a lot of flat / dead money with increased opportunity risk (areas where the assets could be put to better use).

There is this descending triangle that's becoming very noticeable which is one reason I don't mind holding the 1/2 size USO long right now, there's a decent chance for a head fake move above the range to ultimately get USO to move to the lower end of the range faster to be accumulated so if we did get a breakout above the $19 area, I'd likely be looking to close the 1/2 size position, maybe even go short as there are much higher probabilities and less risk after a head fake move in this scenario and then wait for a return to the lower end of the range where I'd cover any shorts and look for a new primary long trend to get in to.

A.M. Update

Good  morning.

It seems the soaring $USD caught the blame for the overnight sell-off in futures, I don't disagree, I just don't think we can call moves like this days, weeks, even months in advance without the market having shown us first. I do believe markets are pretty efficient, but not the way most people think of them, I believe they plan quite a ways ahead and part of a US rate hike or perceptions of one is going to be a strong US dollar.

We aren't far off the support areas from yesterday's lows/Friday's close.

I suspect we'll see some bouncing during today's session, but that doesn't change the fact we have entered stage 4 decline and decline is what we should expect overall.

As you can see, last night's ugly futures charts that I mentioned, got a lot uglier after midnight.

 NASDAQ futures overnight, note the small positive now.

Russell 2000 futures overnight, again another small positive now.

As I've said since last week, I wouldn't buy any of this, just sell in to or short in to any price strength, but hopefully most of you are already in position.