All Mullinsed Up

What a day, what a week! The SPX comes within $.25 cents of the new closing (nominal) high, gains eight points or about half a percent and then ends the day down 5 points or 1/3 of a percent. We saw them try to push with the levers, but it didn't matter. 

Nearly the entire session the SPY Arbitrage model composed of TLT, HYG and VXX showed the levers being pulled to no avail, I showed you the VIX futures being pushed around to no avail, I also showed you HYG earlier as well to no avail and ending the day at session lows.

Here's TLT being pushed around with intraday distribution holding it down and trying to keep rates from falling even further.

 TLT  2 min intraday distribution to keep this flight on the ground...

However the flight is fully loaded and ready for take-off, this has been clear for a while.

In addition to the normal (but this time extraordinary ) catastrophizing (*verb, to mess up a task that is seemingly painfully simple; to exacerbate a situation that has gone slightly wrong with catastrophic consequences.) the Troika pulls on every bailout (talk about being a Mullins), the Dutch Finance Minister, Dijsselblom (pronounced Diesel-Boom) who is also the head of the Eurogroup held a formal, on-the-record joint interview with Reuters and the FT today, saying that the messy and chaotic Cyprus solution is a model for future bailouts.

This did the markets in despite damage control, ES travelled 20 points from highs to lows, the SPX lost it's gain and nearly new high to close red along with the other 3 major averages. 

Before we even get to the market, two things-First thank you to EVERYONE who have sent such incredibly supportive and productive messages to me and my wife, I sent a kind of collage with excerpts from each mail (I didn't include any information that would disclose your identity or email). Thank you again, I'm floored every time this group comes out to give support.

Second, those of you who have been with me for a while know I have covered every EU bailout or mechanism/scheme they've tried to hatch, each one was easily torn to pieces by someone of my intellect within the first day. At first I thought I must be making a fool of myself in tearing apart these seemingly ludicrous plans, but as time went on and we saw the weaknesses and foolishness of each plan actually come to pass and make a bad situation worse, I began to realize, I'm not dumb or a fool, I'm not a genius or rocket scientist either, these plans are simply and obviously that painfully horrible that they can be torn to shreds as soon as the details emerge.

Now if last weekend's announcement that the Troika was going to impair / levy depositors in all Cyrpus' banks, whether they had $1 Eur or $1 bn, wasn't obvious enough as a catastrophic mistake (being the EU-wide $100k deposit protection was just violated-which they had to back peddle on this weekend as it would have and may still cause a pan-European run on the banks), these fools who were really going after Russian deposits from wealthy oligarchs with an initial 9.9%, then up to 40% and then even a total loss, the idiots left the barn door open all last week!

That's right, if you were an average Cypriot and went to take money out of the ATM, the levy was already in place, but for the rick oligarchs that the EU was after to fund this bailout had other means, MANY other means. According to Reuters during the last week of chaos:

" No one knows exactly how much money has left Cyprus' banks, or where it has gone. The two banks at the centre of the crisis - Cyprus Popular Bank, also known as Laiki, and Bank of Cyprus - have units in London which remained open throughout the week and placed no limits on withdrawals. Bank of Cyprus also owns 80 percent of Russia's Uniastrum Bank, which put no restrictions on withdrawals in Russia. Russians were among Cypriot banks' largest depositors.


German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the bank closure had limited capital flight but that the ECB was looking closely at the issue. He declined to provide figures.

The withdrawals by Russians over the last week means that the two Cypriot megabanks are now likely  drained of capital and that the levies on those who still have unsecured deposits of over $100k with the two banks will have to be bigger to compensate, in fact so big it will likely mean a complete wipeout of all deposits. In true Mullinsed style, the EU went after the rich Russian oligarchs, ticked Russia off in a huge way that they WILL pay for come next winter as the EU imports most oil and natural gas from Russia's Gazprom who will gladly slow the flow just like they did to the Ukraine and in the end, the targeted Russians take the EU for a ride and caught in the middle is Cyprus which will see no more high end visitors in their hotels, sales of luxury cars or any of the money rich Russians spent to keep their economy alive and they will no longer have the only thing that they had going for them, a financial hub-banking center as the EU has dismantled it!

As for the market, I showed you EU Financial Credit and what happened to financial stocks there shortly after credit diverged negatively, now it's time for the US's financial credit...

Look familiar?

Oh boy...

I've been warning about Financials as well as the broader market and carrying a FAZ long position for Financial short exposure, hopefully (I think there's a decent chance) we get a nice bounce to short in to because most of the Financials don't look very good, GS, MS, JPM, WFC, etc.

As noted, ES dropped 20 points from overnight highs to the comment that let all of the EU now what was in store for them.

ES just managed to claw it way back to VWAP by the close.

As noted during the day today, the Yen popped 1.4% higher as the carry seemingly was covered in a hurry, much to the dismay of Abe and the BOJ.

The carry pairs, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY obviously moved, that's what moved the single currency futures of the Yen above.

I mentioned several weeks back, "In a world where everyone is trying to devalue their currency, the currency that gets bought is the $USD).

The US Dollar Index has gained 4.25% since the start of February, the SPX is in red, this is not the normal correlation, stocks usually go the opposite of the $USD, perhaps this is part of the reason the SPX can't make that new high even when it's only 25 cents away!

As all of this was happening today, the yields on 10-year US paper were headed back to last week's lows (yields move opposite bond prices), the flight to safety is not on again, it never stopped, despite the market trying to make this new nominal SPX high.

The SPX is in danger of losing the Friend found in the trend...

I can almost see it from here, a new closing high, a surge, an upside channel buster and all heck breaks lose to the downside, assuming anyone is brave enough to bid the new nominal high.

As for the futures, right now they aren't looking so hot on an intraday basis, but that rarely holds through the morning...

 ES 1 min

 ES 5 min has a little hope as noted earlier...

At 15 min where bigger funds flow, back to the rot in the market.

Every breadth indicator I track declined today, that tells you something about what ISN'T happening in the market.

The only saving grace other than the DIA positive divergences and the ES 5 min positive, is the Dominant Price/Volume Relationship today; all 4 major averages closed out the day with a dominant P/V relationship of Close Down/Volume Up, I know this sounds bad to most people, but most people have forgotten the art of volume analysis in leu of the newest, trendiest indicators out there that promise to be the next Holy Grail of Technical Analysis,

The implications of this P/V relationship are that of "Short term" or 1-day oversold, most times when I see this relationship the market is up the next day, think of it as mini-capitulation, all the sellers have thrown in the towel in the short term for now and there's room for demand to drive prices up, although I'm sure they'll need the levers.

The most disturbing thing about traders right now is they look at the market as being bullish, does this look bullish?

That's 2 trading weeks (10 days) of the SPX not able to follow through and move a fraction of a percent to make a new high even with manipulation of credit, rates and volatility among other things.

What I look at when I see this chart is a market desperately trying to climb a wall of worry to make it to 1 objective and I very much doubt from the flight to safety trades, the distribution, the carry trades being closed, etc that this market will have any will to fight when and if it reaches the new high, sure maybe a little algo buying  spree that pulls dumb money in, but this has the potential of being one of the biggest, ugliest bull traps ever set, just look at the last time they did it in 2007, that was the top and from there we lost 5 years of a true , healthy bull market in 18 months plus an additional 15% knocked off and most of that damage happened in the span of 8 months.

We have so much less ammunition to hold the market together, a wildly large F_E_D balance sheet that has to be unwound and a true Global epidemic in the markets and we have never really seen what a nasty bear like the 1929 bear would do to a market that is co interconnected globally, just imagine Cyprus, the smallest and meekest of countries that most people can't find on a map, "Could" be the Lehman of 2013.

Be very careful in how you look at this market, price is the most deceptive thing in the market, more so than any central bank.

SPY Update

I'm not going to make this in to any bigger of a deal than it is or pretend this is the high probability trade that I'd want to be in, I'm just going to give it to you like it is, it's not really inspiring, but it's also not really scary.

After a quick look, I'm not excited about the QQQ charts (meaning I don't think they look bullish), the NASDAQ futures 5 min chart looks good as does the ES 5 min chart I showed you in the last post, and remember it had been the 5 min futures charts that gave us that 14:1 winning streak on call/put positions. The R2K 5 min chart is positive, not as much as ES and NQ though. The IWM short term charts look decent, better than the Q's. Ironically, the DIA charts finished out the day looking the best by far, as in looking good enough that I'd say we are up tomorrow, whether that is early in the day or on the close I can't say, but the DOW took a lot of damage, regrouped today and put together a solid set of short term positive divergences which I would have no problem holding overnight.

As for levers, HYG finished the day in the off position, the earlier support it was giving to the SPY arbitrage completely failed and it closed at the lows of the day. There was nothing special about the Euro, it slightly underperformed in to the close, the $USD did manage to push higher and somehow the SPX held some ground, this chart is worth seeing.

 USD made a marginal new high on the day, the SPX DID NOT make a new low so there's some strength in there somewhere.

If you think what's going on with the carry currencies, think again, look what happened when the Yen as well as the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY carry pairs stemmed the gains in the Yen, the market bottomed.

HY credit closed near the lows of the day, but I'd expect that regardless of what the more liquid HY Corp. Credit did as HY credit doesn't have the liquidity, last week we saw what some selling in HY credit could do when 2 days of selling took out all of 2013's gains and then some, that move was so deep because the instrument is so illiquid.

Commodities broadly speaking closed near the lows of the day, copper did a little better.

After failing at 1 pm as VIX futures were obviously being used to help slow the bleeding in the market, they saw some 2 pm accumulation intraday, it didn't go beyond the 1 min chart and really didn't do much for VXX, which is otherwise in line to the 5 min chart (leaving room for the market to move higher if it can), but at 10 min it is as positive as you could ask for so that's the theme of the thin veneer and rot beneath, today the rot got the better of the market for a bit, but I think the market can still make that SPX new high, it's just with the VXX 10 min chart positive and all the market charts in that timeframe negative, the rot is still there and I don't see any move above new SPX highs as having any legs, in fact it looks like a trigger to sell the market off, so 8 days later from being 2 points away, would the SPX finally just move the half percent or so needed to finish the job already!

I'm going to update the charts and scans, talk to my wife on Skype for about an hour and then see what else there is to see in the market today, especially with breadth.

SPY Calls

If you sold during that last burst of momentum (I put 1 out as a tester), you should have been able to make 12+%

SPY Call Decision time

I REALLY did not want to hold this overnight, but I think I'm going to. The TICK is getting very anxious, way out of character, the last 45 mins. it's jumping between + and - 1000, the ES 5 min chart is where it looks positive and perhaps worth the wait, the 1 min ES chart won't hold water overnight, but the 5 min will.

I see it's moving now, I'd say if you can take a profit, I would, there's no way I can move fast enough to do so.

AMZN

AMZN April $255 Calls are still open and will remain so for the time being, this however is a piggy back ride to what I think will be the bigger trade, which is AMZN short, I prefer equity short, but I suppose a longer term put could work, it just wouldn't be my choice.

As you may recall, this is all about a gap in the $270-$274 area.

I don't see anything really exciting today other than the fact that some important charts for the call position are holding up.

 The 30 min chart is kind of almost like the "Swing" signal for AMZN right now, it went negative and AMZN gaped lower and headed lower, it stayed in line with price and then went positive and the decline stopped and a lateral trend started. The bigger the lateral trend, the more potential accumulation for a move to the upside, the 30 min chart did not falter today, it has held up well and that is probably the most exciting thing I see at the moment.

 The 5 min chart did a good job in identifying the double bottom (not in the true sense, but let's call it support) and then going positive late Friday, gapping up in to distribution like most of the market and has been in line since, that is a far sight better than a leading negative divergence which it "could" have had right now.

 Even the 2 min chart is positive, AMZN moves , the open today is negative and it is in line the rest of the day, the 2 min chart is fast, it gives more detail and it's not even showing small negative divergences right now, it's in line and that's better than I would have expected considering the market's temperament right now.

 Ultimately though, I'm looking for the short set up, the 11/16 lows were accumulated, this is the same on virtually 90% of charts out there as 11/16 was the start of a new cycle, but since the longer term 3C chart has been negative as it should be as a cycle progresses, the gap just gives a better entry, lower risk and the trade comes to us, but one thing at a time.

The 5 min/50 bar average a lot of momentum/day traders use is showing AMZN holding the average, I doubt this is coincidence so this may be an average and timeframe you want to keep an eye on if you are long AMZN on a short term trade.

SPY Update

It looks like the SPY calls are in the green, I'd like to see a burst of momentum and sell in to that, unless there are really amazing divergences, I don't want to hold this overnight, Divergences rarely get run over like they did today, when that happens it's typically because there is fundamental news and what I mean is an event that the market didn't know about ahead of time and it has to discount it on the fly, there was fundamental news and I'll get to that, the market discounted it on the fly and ran over the earlier positive, but those who built that intraday divergence want their money back, once the supply dies down and they have absorbed it, maybe they get some good news as a spark and they get back to where they have inventory and make money doing so because they bought on the way down, especially if they are market makers forced to do so on a market order with no match.

 1 min SPY, opening negative divergence, the first positive was run over the second is where all the levers started showing up, they lost control and this is why I keep shorts open when the long term and other probabilities are negative, you don't know when that Black Swan is going to stretch its wings, but you do know where the probabilities are.

 2 min, the first divergence run over, second held and we have a pullback/consolidation here.

 The 5 min is marginally positive

10 min is ugly, an island top at #1 and #2 and leading negative off those gaps.

The Fundamental event...

EU DIJSSELBLOEM SPOKESWOMAN: DIJSSELBLOEM DIDN'T SAY CYPRUS A TEMPLATE FOR BANK RESTRUCTURINGS - DOW JONES

Although he did, maybe he misspoke, but he did and that is what the market didn't like and the rebuttal above is what brought some calm back, but everyone knows they crossed the Rubicon, what he originally said is the truth.

Deja Vu

I know you already saw this, but think back to last week as the first EU Cyprus plan to take up to 9.9% of people's savings made the rounds, I believe it was Saxo-Bank's CEO who had said he heard rumors of it the week before, that means people really in the know with the professional networks (a legal name for inside information) knew exactly what was going down.

Tell me this, how is it logistically possible to come up with an idea, "Lets take up to 9.9% of all the savings in every Cypriot bank" on Friday night, with every ATM in the country already set and having already deducted the levy from people's accounts immediately as soon as they went to get their money upon hearing the news?

That would have to be one heck of a IT unit to get orders and levy every bank account in numerous banks moments before the announcement was made.

So yes, someone knew and European financial credit knew it and knew it was a bad idea...

In fact it looks like they knew for quite some time, this is what I spent about half a day last week talking about in filling the downside Monday a.m. gap, some promises were made to keep this quiet.

Credit leads, stocks follow.

It's just a bigger, smarter market than equities.

The Levers of Intraday Manipulation

These can't hold the market for long, they will work intraday, but just as the SPX hasn't been able to make that new high since 8 days ago when it was 2 points, a fraction of a percent away, these levers won't be able to hold the market beyond intraday movements, things are getting ugly fast.

Here's what I first saw...

 First I saw the VERY Liquid (thus they can use this lever and get in or out because of the liquidity) moving up as the SPX was moving down. This is lever #1 and figures in to the Capital Context SPY Arbitrage model.

 I saw that the High income opportunity fund was not moving up, but down, sellers are in control of the market, the invisible hand is using HYG to try to stop the fall, but they'd never use HIO, it's not liquid, it's a bit obscure, this is better to take the temperature of sentiment at the time.

 Copper also wasn't showing anything other than risk off as well.

 HY credit was moving with the market to the downside, but here's the trick, HY credit is illiquid, if they use this as a lever they may get stuck when they need to get out quickly unlike High Yield Corp. Credit.

 CONTEXT for ES was still pretty nasty and this is delayed 30 minutes, but the differential seen at the bottom as a histogram was rising, this told me some levers were being pulled and after seeing HYG, I figured that was the case.

 The SPY arbitrage which uses rates and HYG in the calculations shows the model positive above the SPY with a +$.30 differential, now I know other levers are being pulled, VIX is another in this model.

 I see the Dollar is not rising, yet the market is falling, they lost control here, the first positive divergence was overwhelmed with sellers.

 The carry traders even seem to be running for the hills, although they are typically the first to run as they can have 200:1 leverage, but they were running last night as the FX markets opened so no surprise to see the Yen higher-Watch for jawboning from Japanese PM Abe or any of the BOJ Central bank governors to try to stem this closing of the carry trade which is pushing the Yen higher which is exactly what Abe and the BOJ DO NOT want. Again risk off, they're losing control and reaching for levers.

 Yields have been in line with the market most of the day, but remember they are like a magnet for equities so stocks have some catching down to do .

 Commodities, like Copper, are risk off and more so than the $USD strength would suggest. The bottom line, the market does not like this Cyprus deal, the ramifications are being thought of and they are not liking what they are coming up with.

 When I saw EUR/USD's 1 min positive divergence I knew FX traders knew something that wasn't reflected in stocks yet, I'm still not sure if it's news or just the levers because I haven't had time to look, but they knew something.

 Then VIX futures went negative here intraday and...

 This is the SPY (green) vs VXX (Vix Futures in red), VIX futures should have been at a higher high, between VIX, HYG, EUR/USD and everything else above, the SPY Arb model made sense, that's why I had to get the trade idea out ASAP, I can't explain all of this fast enough.

SPY, Market and Fills

The SPY weekly $155 calls were filled at $1.23

Half of the April IWM puts, just because I think I can get better positioning, but I want to keep some in place as fundamental flow is driving sellers.

This came out to be a +23% profit, but that's not the reason as explained above.

I'm going to get some other market charts out, I see the levers being used, thus the SPY intraday position with $155 calls, we'll see what it looks like later, but I'm very skittish about holding these overnight.

As for the SPY itself...

I called this out (position) as soon as I saw the levers being pulled, even before this chart which developed insanely fast after the first divergence was overrun by sellers.

I'll show you the levers, but this was as of before the SPY Call post-coming next

Taking half of IWM April $95 Puts off the table

Will look to add them back later.

That's April 5th expiration

Going Long SPY $155 Weekly Calls VERY SPEC

This is ALMOST certainly going to be a day trade. I'll get charts out ASAP, but this looks like a very short term spec trade that is worth it, PLEASE make sure it is spec and consider that it will probably be closed today

Nose Dive-Their trying to pull it up

I think they will, but as I said, this isn't a well thought out EU plan like all the others and once we got past the headlines of a deal reached, the details and ramifications are causing a lot of panic.

European Financials saw their worst 1 week drop in 8 months, what does that tell you since the first plan to steal people's money was announced a week ago? No bank in the EU is safe and they are suffering for it.

In Italy the banking system went limit down as credit spreads hit 4 month wides! The European equity indexes saw their biggest drop since the Italian elections a month ago, Switzerland's SMI market was the best performer as Swiss 2 year rates are still zero. The Russian Rubble, it is having it's best day in 6 weeks vs the Euro.

What's all of this telling you about this deal?

In any case, the EUR/USD knows something the equity market doesn't know yet, they are pulling the nose up, I'll post more charts in a minute..

Market Update

I think the last few updates were correct, I think the SPX closing high is within grasp and I think they are desperate for it, even if it's just transactional costs, the bid/ask spread on volume, volume rebates, whatever, it's worth it to hit that mark when it's so close, but taking so long to hit it is telling in itself, we've been within two points of the new high in the SPX since 8 days ago, that's almost 2 trading weeks. Eight days ago we were literally less than 2 points from the close needed for the new high, we are talking about 0.0013% away!!!

 DIA 1 min, I said I thought we needed more time before a positive divergence, intraday bottom could be put in, since capturing this chart just minutes ago, prices have headed toward the trendline I was going to say, "This is where they are headed to finish the divergence".

 The 2 min chart is on board now, that means probabilities shift away from consolidation and toward a bounce intraday, they still have a mission.

 CONTEXT for SPX futures saw the model leading ES lower all night, as mentioned last night there were negative divergences and ES followed them lower, but they are now a bit closer.

The SPY arb. shows they have been throwing everything they can at the market to try to arrest the decline and get the market moving up again toward that SPX high, as you see, it seems to have worked, it seems they have been able to absorb the supply for now as the arb and SPY now move in to nearly perfect correlation. I'll have to see if this is just due to the SPY holding or risk assets losing their grip as they were used earlier to help halt the decline.

Nothing above changes any plans, generally speaking, I WOULD NOT try to play this on the long side right now, there's just WAY too much fundamental risk out there or Black Swan risk.

Dow- DIA and Transports

I don't know why the DIA/DOW is taking it on the chin more so than the other averages and I mean with regard to intraday 3C charts, but it certainly is. A few of the averages have some intraday positive divergences or are at least are in an area where one can be put together, the DIA, not so much.

One of the reasons I use ETFs of the index over the index itself (other than for logistical reasons) is that the ETF must try to match the underlying asset, but since the volume isn't part of that, only price is, we can often see what traders are feeling at the ETF level first, that's because the volume that is associated with the ETF is nothing like the underlying asset, or at least there's nothing that says it has to be, only the % gain or loss is trying to be recreated by ETF managers. To make a long story short, the average's volume can be effected (especially on the Dow) by a few stocks moving on big news, the ETF's volume though is a more pure reflection of actual supply/demand and sentiment toward that average as a whole and sentiment is what moves the market or you could say, Fear and Greed move the market.

The other reason is that ETF managers will often use large caps like Dow or SPX components to balance their ETFs, so some of the action in the actual average is not at all a function of real supply and demand, but is a function of hundreds, possibly thousands of ETFs and ETn managers trying to balance their managed instruments to reflect the underlying, the ETF itself doesn't have that problem.

First the Dow-30 and Dow 20, Industrials vs Transports which is old time Dow Theory when Industry and Rails where the dominant businesses in the US. I don't think this is as effective as the Dow-30 is not a pure industrial anymore, in fact many components aren't industrial at all and the US is more a services economy, but there are those that still follow this theory and trade it everyday so if you believe it, you can manifest it.

The Transports in red slipped before the Dow, they had been flying this year, they still haven't recovered from that slip and it's almost as if the Dow is reaching down to regain the correlation which Dow-Theory proposes.

 Last week I half-jokingly said that FDX and the Russell 3000 were a much better/modernized version of Dow Theory as the US has turned to services, the R3K is a large index with a lot of different companies and Fed-Ex caters to many of these service oriented companies, whether it be shipping small goods or parcels, business documents, etc. I say half jokingly because 1 stock isn't enough to get a real feel for an industry, but in any case, the time FED-EX and the transports slipped is about the same, if this is even a fractionally better model for modern Dow Theory, the implications for the US economy aren't good and ultimately the Stock Market is a leading indicator for expectations of the economic activity 6 to 12 months out as a discounting mechanism, of course QE has distorted that along with other things, but at this point I think QE has peaked in it's ability to move the market and as the F_E_D is realizing, is starting to become more or a liability than an asset with further purchases that MUST be unwound at some point and in the past the unwind and rise in rates has not been good to the market. I think some of Bernie's comments last week specifically alluded to a bubble and I think everyone knew which bubble he meant-stocks.

 I wanted to show the Dow intraday, but I went a bit further, intraday we have accumulation to the left, this is intraday accumulation, it is small, it is meant to move the market higher or market makers, specialists and other participants see something in the order flow that suggests the market will move higher and they position by buying to ride that move. However the DIA didn't do much with that accumulation intraday, keep an eye on the area where there's a yellow arrow, it's a flat area meaning it's hugging its VWAP, this is where market makers/specialists will try to fill orders and this is why flat areas are where we most often see positive and negative divergences.

This morning's open was negative right off the bat, distribution of the gap on the open and leading negative.

 2 min chart shows all the same, distribution in the flat area, distribution on the open and a leading negative divergence.

 Remember that flat area I asked you to keep in your head, here we have intraday positives to the left, these are small accumulation areas and are meant to move intraday price, they aren't anything that effects the longer term trend, although the trend of these charts on a long time frame can be useful. To the left you see how a relative positive divergence is formed, we look at two relative points (price and 3C) at the second point price is lower and 3C is the same), if 3C is the same as the first point with lower price or if 3C is actually higher at the second point than the first, we have a relative positive divergence which is the most common, but weaker than a leading divergence. In to the move up from the intraday accumulation we get a flat zone, price can't move up because it's seeing more supply than demand and 3C shows this with a negative divergence, again another on today's gap opening, it seems everything that can be sold in to higher prices is being sold in the DIA. The current divergence is leading negative.

 5 min is where we get in to more serious flows, and away from intraday only and again the same flat area sees the same negative divergence which is the strongest kind, leading.

This morning didn't provide any relief either, as is already obvious, the open or higher prices and demand for stock by retail traders were sold in to by the pros.

 Here's where I went further than I intended, the 10 min chart with the accumulation that was the basis of Trend #1, the expected strong move to the upside, I said back then it will likely be stronger than we can imagine at this time, I didn't think it would be this long however, but I guess they saw the new Dow highs as an opportunity to try to get retail to keep coming in to the market (which they have been exiting as of late) and they used that opportunity to sell in to the demand, there's a VERY clear negative leading divergence right at the area in which the Dow went for the new high, this is about as clear of a divergence as you get and the 10 min chart means heavy money flow.

 On a 30 min chart we again see the accumulation that created the forecast of the Trend #1 move higher, distribution in to that move and then a not so big accumulation area for the Dow new highs, this would have maybe given me pause if there was large accumulation, but there isn't, it's enough to get the job done, not enough to sell in to over 6 months.

This hourly chart will be the heaviest flow of money in underlying trade, I wanted to show you that same flat area and how the negative leading divergence shows up on a 60 min chart in that area, this really looks like trouble if there's a divergence on a 60 min chart in to such a flat area, this tells me that institutional players are wiling to dump at VWAP and not wait or  expect the chance to be able o dump in to higher prices and demand. In a way, this is a sort of panic to "Sell first, sell best", however short selling is read by 3C as selling as well, so this can be short selling, both transactions come across the tape as sales.

This is the rot and it's bad, this is a miracle market right now or dead market walking.