Daily Wrap

More and more surprises, more and more volatility, less and less liquidity, put them together and you get... Probably some nice day trading opportunities.

Rather than beating a dead horse over the SNB action, lets look at something useful. Swiss Franc futures from before the SNB action in last night's overnight trade shows a huge positive divegrence. I'd guess that there was a leak of the SNB action, it crushed a lot of macro hedge funds, I'm sure someone made out like a bandit.

Swiss Franc Futures prior to SNB action at the right, this looks like a very obvious leak and very profitable one.

There's additional evidence that Bonds may have been accumulated overnight as well before the SNB action, they popped higher and have not turned back.

 30 year Treasury future w/ a huge 3C positive divergence before the SNB move...

And since (regular hours green to red), 30 year T-Futures haven't looked back.

One of the late day levers that looked like it was being activated for a market bounce, TLT (20+ year bond fund) suddenly went positive in to the close and there has been heavy activity in Treasury futures since the close as well as Euro Dollar.

There were some other signs to similar to last Thursday's unexpected ugliness in the market when an upside bounce was expected to continue. While not as overt today, there is more evidence like the TLT chart in to the close where and when I expected a bounce to get some legs under it.

While HYG's 5 min chart still holds a small positive divergence suggesting the bounce we have been expecting (which would not be effected with a short term change in the last hour or so of the day- meaning the 5 min. chart would not be effected i that short of a time period)...

 HYG 5 min positive which looks set as a ramping lever for the continuation of the oversold bounce expected since last week. However, like the last minute or hour change in TLT above, there seems to have been a similar move in HYG  on faster charts that would react in that short of a period of time.

HYG 1 min and 3C close at the lows of the day with 3C confirmation of the intraday trend lower.

This is what I mean about the market pieces of the puzzle starting to get a bit ridiculous. Obviously this "seems" like it's not a planned reaction, but the SNB move came as a surprise to almost everyone, maybe everyone, it's just the couple of charts above that suggest someone knew about the event before hand and was trading that insider information. The point being... The market has to adjust to the situation on the ground. Some of the only times we see divergences run over is when a fundamental piece of data surprises the market and it must react and re-discount the new information, take a September 11th type event for example or anything the market had not anticipated and this move was not anticipated by more than a handful of people.

One of the things traders are really talking about is the "Surprise" nature of the central bank's move. You may recall earlier today I posted an excerpt from a email with a member from yesterday in which I said I expected a lot of volatility and surprises.

Well, I can think of one good reason to keep such a move totally quiet, those on the wrong side of the trade and there were a lot, were crushed, those on the right side of the trade just had a huge pay day.

I enjoy the challenge of trying to put the pieces together and figure out where we need to be and when, but this is getting a bit ridiculous.

I've had a lot of emails today, one of the popular themes was, "Doesn't this mean ECB QE?" There's an obvious case to be made as the Swiss National Bank was the biggest daily buyer of Euros, under a QE printing regime they likely wouldn't be able to buy them as quick as they can print them, but there are plenty of alternative scenarios as well, this just happens to be exactly a week before the ECB policy announcement next Thursday. However, as I pointed out in numerous emails, QE doesn't mean the conventional wisdom will prevail, in fact the conventional wisdom can be very dangerous. When QE3 was launched, the conventional wisdom was that stocks were going to sky-rocket, I almost bought it myself out of pure emotional fear, but that's not what the 3C charts said, they were negative and other than the first 2 hours after QE3 was announced, the market didn't hit that level again for months and drifted -8% lower after the launch of QE so the charts were right, my emotional mini-panic would have been wrong. It's dangerous to assume too much, like Japanese QE_Zilla is going to combat Japanese deflation, it didn't. You can't take the same scenario and put it in two different environments and expect everything to be the same. With the F_E_D seemingly closer to tightening (especially with all the vocal non-voting doves who seem to want their voice heard as their vote won't be) and with some Yellen comments like the F_E_D DOES NOT have traders' backs, they need to be responsible for their own trades, that's not dovish talk from Madame Chairwoman and really comes off sounding more like a warning, much like the "I keep telling the market what we are going to do, I wash my hands of the market if they won't listen".

The point? Simply that assuming is dangerous in the market; there's no indicator that can replace due diligence which includes reassessing a situation when something on the ground changes. We c an make assumptions as to why the SNB did what it did, but they are assumptions, they certainly aren't the official party line which changed 180 degrees in 48 hours as posted earlier today.

Here's a repost of the SNB's stance 48 hours before this shocking move and then today...

From January 12th,

"The Swiss National Bank's cap on the franc at 1.20 per euro will remain its key monetary policy tool, the central bank's vice-chairman said in a television interview broadcast on Monday. "We took stock of the situation less than a month ago, we looked again at all the parameters and we are convinced that the minimum exchange rate must remain the cornerstone of our monetary policy," Jean-Pierre Danthine told RTS."

Today,

"Recently, divergences between the monetary policies of the major currency areas have increased significantly – a trend that is likely to become even more pronounced. The euro has depreciated considerably against the US dollar and this, in turn, has caused the Swiss franc to weaken against the US dollar. In these circumstances, the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified."

So... Apparently in the bank's view, a LOT changed over 2-days.

So, real change in forward expectations or not? This is what I continue to investigate and the last hour or so of trade didn't make my job an easier.

From a macro point of view...

 On a 3-day SPX/SPY chart, there's a clear change in character from a nice clean uptrend through 2013 and part of 2014 to a Broadening top with 5 points of contact, a Crazy Ivan Shakeout both below the Broadening Top and Above and...

5 days of losses with yesterday's candlestick and internals looking a lot like the market found short term footing to bounce from (white arrow), however today's closing candle is what is known as a "Bearish Engulfing " candle, a bearish reversal which swallowed the entirety of yesterday except the intraday lows. From a conceptual point of view, I'd rather see heavy volume on today's candle if it is a failure, but again I can't ignore that a lot of the possible changes occurred in to the close.

Playing devil's advocate, it could be op-ex influenced. This is why we gather objective data and see if there's a pattern/confirmation. Also playing devil's advocate, most reversals are going to see a head fake move first so the SPX's close below the psychological level of 2000 (as well as the 100-day m.a.), could easily serve as that head fake move we see so often before a reversal (the bounce to the upside).

Here's the Averages price action on the day...

The clear laggard is the Russell 2000 down 1.90% and the best performer was Transports at -.39%.

I suppose a case for a head fake move could be made, although it's likely to early to confirm any accumulation on such a move that would need to trip up local stops. A case for the max-pain op-ex could be made as it is generally right at the area of Thursday's close. Or the SNB action could have introduced a new element. I'll keep digging.

While the SPY still has positive divergences that will work for a bounce as we have been looking for, I can't say that I can get any kind of confirmation of a head fake move based on the close. I wouldn't expect it with just the last hour or so seeing a change in character (Treasuries, HYG, etc.), but I think I should point out the SPY's 1 min chart at the close, it looks a lot like the closing changes in TLT and HYG.

In white is the timing positive divegrence that made me think we were on the cusp of a bounce in to the close, but look at that very sudden and sharp (considering the short time period) negative move in 3C in to the close.

This wasn't just seen in a few of the averages and a few of the levers, treasuries, HYG, etc... this was seen nearly market wide. Remember the Tech and Financial trade set-ups,m let them bounce to you?

 XLK (Tech) has it's positive divegrences for a short term bounce, but note the action on the 2 min chart toward the close. It's more noticeable on a faster 1 min chart...

 XLK 1 min. Now I am making an assumption, but I do assume there was some reason for this move toward the end of day in numerous assets.

Financials were set with their bounce divergence, yet again look at the change at the end of day. The difficulty is it's a small change that doesn't scream, IT DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO IF IN FACT THAT IS WHAT IT WAS/IS GOING TO DO.

Again, patience pays.

Speaking of Financials, you've seen the earnings for Financials this week, JPM, Wells Fargo, BAC, not good at all, which is something 3C has been reflecting which is why I have been featuring Financials as a trade set up. Isn't it interesting that 3C was showing us this weeks and even months ago and now earnings are confirming some of the worst?

In yet another odd end of day bit of action, you may recall our custom SPX:RUT Ratio and VIX Term Structure, both of which were positive coming in to the recent lows (yesterday) which caused me some concern about the possibility of a broader base or a "W" base in the SPX. Well on an intraday basis, look at the close...

The rising SPx:RUT Ratio (red) in to falling SPX prices was a positive divergence suggesting non-confirmation of the SPX lows and the probability of a bounce in the area, it really still does. In addition to that, the VIX Term Structure (bottom) put out a buy signal (white), which I have shown several times in multiple timeframes and context,  but look at the SPX:RUT Ratio in to the close, it turns negative. Again, not a huge signal, but there wasn't much time left in the day so we really don't know yet if it gets bigger and if it does, then something has changed. If it doesn't, then probabilities are still with a bounce and maybe this is op-ex related (Max pain pin) or something else that isn't too important, but we just don't know yet. We do know that this was the sharpest negative move on the chart and not where we'd expect it.

VXX and VIX (spot) were pretty much in line with the SPX correlation, HYG was in line which means it was leading lower with the market in to the close. I'll be watching HYG like a hawk tomorrow for signs of a continued negative divergence based on what we saw at the end of the day (see if that grows which would be a very useful signal).

Yields on a short term basis were leading the market lower, even earlier this week. On that same short term basis, the averages have reverted to the mean, meaning yields have done what they tend to do and act like a magnet pulling equity prices toward them.

 5 year yields (red) vs the SPX (green), , as I said, short term they have reverted to each other or the SPX has caught down to yields.

However on a slightly longer basis, yields are still leading the market negative and the bond market closes at 3, we already know Treasuries continued higher after the close, thus yields lower, so the reality as of right now is that yields (5 year and 30 year) are lower than what is pictured which closed at 3 p.m.

The 5 min chart of the 30 year yield leading a bit lower and as toy know, 30 year Treasury futures shown above have continued higher, thus once again, yields' reality is lower than what we see here.

This isn't the smoking gun, but it could be the start of something that changed in to the close. I don't want to well on this too much as you can drive yourself nuts with minutia, but I do want to mention it just in case there is something to it, it won't have just popped up out of no where for you.

In describing HY Credit (other than HYG), I'd say there's really no move of interest other than to say they aren't especially strong as you might expect before a bounce. They are stronger than the correlation, but not like what we saw about a week ago as HY Credit was leading the market in to the January lows.

Currencies are a week of study at this point with everything changing so suddenly, but here's how USD/JPY and ES reacted today...

As you can see, USD/JPY lost ground, Yen gained ground today on the SNB action, thus the FX pair lower. ES followed pretty neatly to the downside.

I'm going to finish up for now with internals, although I'm not sure how influential they'll be with op-ex and with everything that has happened today.

Again the Dominant Price/Volume Relationship was split. Interestingly for the most part yesterday's Dominant P/V relationship was "Close Down/Volume Down", which is the least influential (it is the hallmark of a bear market just as an aside) and you might remember that I often call or describe this relationship as "Cary On...Keep doing what you were doing". This is because it isn't a strong overbought or oversold condition. I find it a little interesting that this is what the market essentially did today, the 5th day down, it basically carried on and kept doing what it was doing.

Tonight we have a split again, actually all of the averages except the Russell 2000 are Close Down/Volume Down, the same as yesterday. Also like yesterday the dominance of the relationship was there, but not a really strong reading , the same today with 15 of the Dow 30, 239 of the SPX 500, 56 of the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell's Dominant P/V relationship which makes sense with it's lagging performance was Close Down/Volume Up with 1049 stocks. This is interesting because this P/V relationship is a short term oversold condition that usually sees the average close green the next day,  a 2-day oversold condition and with an almost 2% loss, it makes some sense here.

Of the 9 S&P sectors, 2 closed Green. The leader was the Defensive Utilities at +.79% and the laggard which was not surprising given retail sales and some other macro data (jobs) was Consumer Discretionary at -1.29%.

This is a slightly oversold condition.

Of the 238 Morningstar groups, only 35 of 238 closed green, this is worse than yesterday and much closer to a solid oversold condition.

Finally I wanted to mention the SKEW Index (The Black Swan Index), I noticed as I often do, a sharper rate of change to the upside and in the red zone from yesterday at 132 from 122. This was a bit odd because you sometimes see SKEW elevated when we have sharp upside gains in the market as an effect of hedging, but we didn't have those gains yesterday or anywhere near yesterday. This may be a moot point because it's back down, but we'll see after tomorrow's op-ex passes and in to next week. We have quite a few Hindenburg Omens over the last month or so, SKEW is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Tomorrow is an op-ex (monthly) Friday, so look for the max pain pin somewhere around today's close and it should be in effect until about 2 p.m., then we'll see what good 3C data the market has the last 2 hours. I don't expect the end of day strangeness to pick up on the open or early tomorrow because of the op-ex max-pain pin, but I will be looking nonetheless for anything that continues what started during the closing hour or so of today. I would just warn in advance that if we don't see anything especially interesting tomorrow, it doesn't mean it's not there, often things are almost put in to suspended animation on an Op-Ex Friday because of the max-pain pin (an effort to cause the largest dollar amount of options to expire worthless, letting the writers' (typically smart money) keep all of the premium.

Of course I'll check futures later tonight and if there's anything you should know about, I'll post it.

Remember though, today saw the lowest liquidity in ES . SPX E-mini futures in 3 YEARS! This means what-out above and BELOW for extreme volatility. We may get some fade trade opportunities, who knows what else, but every day we keep setting some new record, this one can be especially dangerous.

Tomorrow Monthly Op-EX

Don't forget that tomorrow is January monthly op-ex, which means it's very likely that we have a max-pain op-ex pin and very likely we open near today's close. The pin usually will hold until about 2 p.m.

I'm not sure what role 3 year lows in ES liquidity might play, but we'll find out.

We also have 3  F_E_D speakers tomorrow, the recent Kocherlakota and Williams (Doves) who have come out against raising rates this year and James Bullard who has moved the market at least 3 times up and down and has ZERO problem turning from a dove to a raging hawk in less than a month as he did in September with "We should be willing to remove accommodation" at the September highs, then   "A logical response at this juncture is to delay the end of QE" at the October lows and 30 days later to a 180 degree about face with "Inflation expectations have rebounded since mid-October".

Really? The F_E_D's forecasts for inflation are so liquid they change every 3 weeks?

 I believe Bullard is one of the finest examples of my theory which I think he proves, The Plunge Protection and Market Correction Team

Yellen's own statement carried by Bloomberg is along the very same lines (from this morning's A.M. Update)...

"Yellen has signaled she wants to look past short-term market fluctuations and place economic outlook at center of policy making; to succeed, she must wean investors from the notion that the Fed will bail them out if their bets go bad"

At least the normally rambling Yellen who made Greenspan seem clear and articulate, is consistent. 

I'm not sure what the events for each F_E_D speaker are tomorrow, but with the market set up the way it is, recent statements by Williams (more dovish than usual) and Kocherlakota and Bullard willing to go whichever way Wall St. needs him to depending on which way they've got their cycle set up (long or short), I'd expect a them to come out in harmony against raising rates, something quite at odds with Yellen's recent comments clearly hinting they are coming (rate hikes).

Market Update

While there's always more to look at as the market is dynamic, my best guess right now is we are pretty much back to where we started, looking for a bounce as the market has clearly been bearish in movement and in tone and that's what markets do. Even in a raging bear market you'll typically have just about as many up days as down days, it's just how much each of them moves.

When I say we are pretty much back to where we started, that is an oversold bounce. That's also largely charts that are positive out to about 5 mins and charts that are negative 10 mins and beyond, again where we started with all of this.

Te market can't do this on its own, at least not until it can potentially trigger a short squeeze, so the levers are active as we expected, the only addition I'd add is the oil bounce which until recently was viewed as its own event, I think the broader Energy sector (not just oil, but drillers, explorers, transporters, storage, etc.) will contribute to the market bounce, but nothing has changed with the oil bounce either, it's still a bounce, it's not a trend change and at some point it will roll over again.

We are also back to using price strength/underlying weakness to our advantage with a number of trade set ups already put out and more as they become available. Finally I think to resolve the 5 min charts, just as I said earlier in the week, we'll need prices to move up. The question I have that we'll have to wait on an answer is whether or not the market aggressively sells any price strength as it has the last week or so.

Since things are fast moving, I'll have to add updates in sections or categories, first I'll add the charts of Index futures and the major averages, the timeframes I honk are the most important which have not changed 1-5min positive- 10 min and longer negative. Leading Indicators should turn negative or more negative in some cases, in to the bounce, the same as distribution should be more apparent as smart money HAS to sell in to price strength.

This is especially true right now as NANEX has made clear, the S&P E-,ini futures contract is at 3 year record low liquidity, that means any larger positions trying to be sold would essentially crash the market, there's no liquidity there to absorb such positions as SPX E-mini liquidity is at its lowest in 3 years right now. That also means, BEWARE OF VOLATILITY, it should reign supreme which makes it difficult to trade a bounce long as you should see sharp intraday moves down as well due to the liquidity issue.

I'm not as concerned about the 5 min SPY chart, I'm not done with looking at it, but it's not anything that would change any of my plans or the way I intend to use price strength/underlying weakness on a tactical basis to achieve longer term strategic goals.

The TICK chart is a horrible mess, probably indicative of liquidity problems exacerbating moves as there are quite a few -1500, several over +1200.

Here are the updated charts, you'll notice there are mostly short term chart changes (bounce) and a lot of charts look the same as you get in to the 5+ min range, some even in the 3 min range.

 SPY 2m

SPY 3m

 SPY 5m


SPY 15m

QQQ 2m

QQQ 3m

QQQ 5m

QQQ 10m

QQQ 15m

IWM 1m

IWM 2m

IWM 3m

IWM 5m

IWM 10m

Bounce About to Start

Whether this is just an intraday bounce in to the close or the start of the oversold bounce we have been looking for, something is about ready to start and I suspect it carries over at least until tomorrow morning.

GLD Charts

I moved out of a GLD position not too long ago at a very small gain, just because the near term charts were all over the place. Gold is "typically" bought as a hedge on inflation "EXPECTATIONS", as you might have picked up from the F_O_M_C, "they" expect inflation to move toward their long run goal of 2%, but acknowledge near term inflation expectations are not so hot.

In fact they also said that they'd raise rates at the current 1.4% inflation which is below their target, so long as they felt reasonably sure that inflation would move toward their target.

I may be getting off track a little, but Bloomberg just reported that Yellen just said (as posted in the A.M. Update today),

"Yellen has signaled she wants to look past short-term market fluctuations and place economic outlook at center of policy making; to succeed, she must wean investors from the notion that the Fed will bail them out if their bets go bad"

This is an interesting statement or message because taken with the F_O_M_C minutes and press conference, it was clear that Yellen is looking to raise rates sooner than later and the 2% inflation target not having been met has been rebuffed with the F_O_M_C's willingness to hike rates at current inflation levels of 1.4%, below their long-run target, as long as they feel reasonably assured  inflation will move toward their target (which is a subjective statement and definition that can be used however one pleases, so long as they preface any action with the words "They feel reasonably sure" despite data). Additionally now we have this new "Big picture perspective" from the Bloomberg piece/quote above and warning that the F_E_D does NOT have traders' backs as they have believed for a long time and continue to. This is along the lines of Yellen's, "We keep telling the market what we are going to do, if they don't listen, I wash my hands of it", except this is even more straight forward, we are proceeding, you are responsible for your trades, don't expect us to bail you out (RAMP THE MARKET).

In any case, one issue is the F_E_D's subjective definition of what their inflationary outlook is and that's whatever they say it is and the other issue is the actual inflation data which doesn't look very inflationary right now. Note I said "right now". Who knows what the ECB does, how they do it and what it turns in to, Japan's QE  hasn't exactly done what they expected on the inflationary front.

These are really just asides to the charts which is the reason for the position and post.

 GLD's 15 min chart which is along the lines of a swing trade and then some. Whatever events have transpired, it appears there's a negative cycle set up on this 15 min chart.

Gold futures show something very similar. Note I'm not getting in to longer term charts or forecasts yet, which I suspect will be long term bullish, but the data just isn't clear yet and there are too many wild cards that can move thing either way for a period or indefinitely.

 YG/Gold futures 10 min negative as well.

The 5 min chart shows a [positive / accumulation cycle and a negative distribution in to it recently.

As far as the timing charts now that we have a cycle set up...

This is GLD's 2 min leading negative

YG intraday is showing a negative divegrence on a parabolic move higher intraday.

And the 1 min timing chart (in this instance) is clearly negative in to GLD's gap higher, which on a daily chart is looking like a possible closing Star, Doji Star or maybe Shooting star, the volume surge is in place which would make any of those reversal candlesticks about 4 time more effective and probable than average volume. THIS IS ALSO RIGHT IN TO THE 200-DAY M.A.

Trade Idea (Short term Options) GLD Speculative Puts

Gold ran up on SNB's action today, however, at least for a near term swing, I suspect we are ready to see some downside very soon, quite possibly before the close.

I'll be opening a half size (speculative) position in Feb 20th GLD puts, just because the market is so fluid right now with news events and the actions, reactions and fading of all of the above.

I'll post charts in just a few minutes, but there are plenty of short term negatives in place and remember that Gold is typically bought on inflation expectations which may build, but right now after yesterday's retail sales, today's Initial Claims and Philly F_E_D (especially the employment sub-index), it would seem that inflationary pressures are not high on the list over the next few days of perception, but this is really about the charts, I'll have those out in just a moment.

I'm looking at this as a very short term trade and speculative. Again, GLD Feb 20th 121 Puts.

USO Set for Continued Gains

The SNB action caused volatility in Crude (Brent) futures early this morning, and they saw some downside, not too dissimilar from yesterday's stronger than expected EIA inventories build which initially sent crude lower on a quick knee jerk. However, like yesterday's post EIA reaction, I believe USO / Oil is recovering and getting ready to make another leg higher shortly.

 Crude Futures ramp and then fade after the SNB's action early this morning. However the intraday /CL chart looks to be recovering.

As does the 1 min intraday USO chart.

The 2 min chart is overall positive and flat intraday, however the 1 min positive divegrence should continue to build and cause a positive divergence (migration) in the 2 min intraday.

 All of the same applies to the 3 min chart above, which is still leading positive.

And the 5 min chart which is also leading positive.

This really isn't about crude, it's about a cycle that Wall St. has started and they'll usually finish it as we saw with the adverse EIA report yesterday and as we are seeing now post the SNB reaction to the downside.

Quick Market Update

You'll have to excuse me this morning. I'm spending some time looking at everything I can with  a fresh pair of eyes, no assumptions and just seeing what's there so I'm actually going through quite a few charts.

The main reason, which I'll show you is the SPY looking better than the QQQ or IWM and looking like a potential "W" base from the January 6th lows until the recent price action.

 With everything else that's going on, I normally wouldn't look twice at this IWM 5 min chart.


However this SPY 5 min showing more positive tone the last two days has me looking twice. Of course we have expected an oversold bounce since the positive divergence on the 5th and 6th which didn't go very far before showing signs of trouble on the 8th so the move never lived up to its potential.

There's also the SPX:RUT Ratio and VIX Term Structure which is similar to the SPY chart above.

The SPX:RUT Ratio (red) has a slight positive disposition and the VIX Term structure has its second buy area. What I'm trying to determine among other things is whether the first buy area already was spent on the move up to the 8th/9th and the current buy signal is the oversold bounce we have been looking for any way or whether this is a larger pattern like a "W" bottom .

There's also a lot of things that will change in the market because of the SNB's overnight actions, just from a perception point of view and perception is more than enough to move the market. So I'm also looking for anything that has or is changing since yesterday before the SNB action and today after the SNB action that is suggestive of a change in perception.

I have to look at this more carefully to be as reasonably sure as I can be that this isn't something different than current expectations or current expectations as they develop.

So I'm going through breadth charts, currencies which have been turned upside down this morning, Leading Indicators, sectors,  averages, etc.

Intraday there's a similar disconnect between SPX futures and NASDAQ/Russell...

 ES 1 min intraday is more positive looking than the other Index futures...

NASDAQ Futures intraday have a small relative positive divergence.

Russell 2000 Index futures are in line at best and we could make a reasonable argument for negative.

 SPY 1 min is pretty flat or in line intraday

2 min isn't very exciting either. This is one of the reasons I'm looking, if the 5 min chart were reflecting a "W" base, I'd expect to see much healthier intraday 2 min, 3 min charts.

 SPY 3 min with a small positive, however this is not far off from the bounce we have been looking for most of this week.

And of course the 5 min chart from above.

QQQ 1 min looks like it will see an intraday move higher, maybe the start of our bounce?

QQQ 2 min also reflects something similar to the SPY 3 min above, this is about the right size for the bounce we have been waiting on.

QQQ 3 min is in line with the recent negative trend.

And the 5 min doesn't look very bullish to me, this again is why I'm looking in to all of this when comparing this to the SPY. USually we'd have strong confirmation between all of the averages if that indeed was a larger "W" base in the SPY.

IWM 1 min with a slight positive.

IWM 2 min in line with downside action.

IWM 3 min in line with downside price action.

And the IWM 5 min chart not showing much.

All of the QQQ and IWM charts and a lot of the SPY charts reflect the shorter term bounce we have been looking for in the area and don't raise many questions, the 5 min SPY chart and the Indicators above are what raises some questions for me and why I'm looking in to it so closely.

Intraday TICK is lateral and very choppy as well as volatile.


So I'll be back with you with anything I might find, I wouldn't jump to any conclusions based on the fact I'm looking at this, that's all I'm doing is looking, not saying anything is different.