SPY

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UUP/dollar Update-Request

Someone has been pretty accurately in front of this trade as you'll see in the longer term charts.

 5 min UUP showing a slight positive divergence. I wouldn't consider this a reversal signal until it makes it to the 10-15 min charts.

 The 10 min chart shows ditribution right at the second attempt at resistance yesterday.

The longer term chart, 30 minutes shows how in front of the trade they are. Accumulation 12/29-12/31 then UUP moves up, then the negative divergence I showed above between 1/10 and 1/11 and today a decline. Right now, this chart is showing confirmation, despite the 5 min chart's positive divergence. Until that divergence makes it to these longer term charts, I would not act on it.

Updates

There are still a lot of C&D trades out there, the ones that are still in play include the following and need to be paid attention to:


(symbol/ trigger date/ trigger price/ current % gain)

EMMS 1/3 @ $.84 =27.3%

BQI     1/4 @ $.44 =45.45%

OPXT  12/26/10 @ $1.73 =21.3%

EEE    12/29 @ $.61 =307%

VITA   1/5 @ $2.14 =8.4%

CPST  1/6 @ $1.05 =21%

CNXT  1/6 @ $1.73 =24.25%

CRIS   1/6 @ $2.17 =24.4%

ABCW  1/6 @ $1.36 =5.8%

JSDA   1/7 @ $1.34 =18.65%

IVAN   1/7 @ $3.07 =4.5%

WG    12/31 @ $9.63 =15.15%

I'll be out for about an hour to the doctors for a blood draw-I'm a needle phobic as well :(

If you need updates on any of these trades, send me an email

PM Update

Yesterday I covered GLD and SLV and concluded both were in simple bounces under resistance for now anyway. GLD is showing some weakness in the bounce, SLV while not moving much is not showing the same negative divergence yet.

 GLD showing  a 5 min negative divergence yesterday afternoon-prices have fallen since.

SLV, although it's gapped into a range, is still confirming, there's no divergences here right now.

While USO is not a precious metal, I thought I'd throw it in.

USO saw an accumulative period between 1/5/2011-1/07/2011. Since then price has advanced nearly 4%, however it looks like the distribution has started there so I'm not sure we'll see too much more upside on this accumulative leg up as USO approaches resistance from 1/3/2011.

Market Update

 QQQQ 1 min with a negative divergence on the open and a slight decline from there. The current negative divergence is the worst looking of the 3 averages.

 It has even shown up on the 5 minute chart, which makes sense as the Q's underperform the Dow and S&P today.

 SPY 1 min-same opening gap neg divergence and a worsening current divergence, however, on the 5 min chart below it has not shown up there yet confirming the S&P's stronger performance today.

I've looked at the earnings trades that have definite times for after the close and tomorrow before the open, as of now, I don't see any candidates.

DPTR Just Broke out for a C&D long at $.82

Morning Blend

Today is Wednesday which means as I noted last night the bond auction out of Europe from Portugal would be closely watched and could be a major catalyst, it was more like a well received draw as the 4 year notes saw an escalated yield, from 4.041% from the last auction to 5.396% today. This may reflect short term concerns as the cost of debt for the short term rose. However, mainly as a result of the European Central Bank's (ECB) bond buying all week, there was more confidence in their 10 year auction which came in lower from 6.806% to 6.716%. You might say it was a draw and not the big catalyst we expected one way or the other, but ECB talk that came out right after the auction about bond buybacks and other issues to be taken up at next week's meeting was received well by the market sending European stocks higher. Tomorrow we have the Spanish auction which will probably be the more significant of the two events.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Index showed considerable improvement over their late December 2010 releases. It came in marginally positive where previous recent releases were way down.

Here's an interesting article-Home Prices Drop Below Great Depression Levels 

Although the information is from an independent Zillow, I still think the declines are underestimated. I've been talking more with homeowners here in South Florida and the amount they are underwater in this new neighborhood, is comparable to what I saw in my old neighborhood. Townhouses this time, rather then single family homes are showing the same declines at 50% or greater. 3 Neighbors in nearby neighborhoods I've talked with all paid between $175k and $185k between 2005/2006 and the selling price in the neighborhood has consistently come in at $75-$80k, well beyond the 25-30% drop that has been estimated. All are significantly underwater, one received a modification taking their payments down from $2000 a month to $1000, but that modification is going to reset in 10 months and they'll be back at an unsustainable $2,000 as the better half of the couple has lost teaching jobs 2x in the last year and a half and still can't find work. 

Also interesting was the NYSE this morning invoking rule 48-the cause? Supposedly snow, but who knows. Here's the story.

GGR just triggered a C&D long at $.91