Monday, July 12, 2010

This Bounced Bear is About to Come Crashing Down

Do yourself a favor and read Trade-Guild tonight, sometimes we get too caught up in minor details that really aren't all that important and there's some ideas there to help traders, trade WITH the trend because after all, "The trend is your friend, until the end when it starts to bend".

Today was a nothing day, breadth stunk. The market lost all momentum, but we'll see what happens tomorrow with AA's earnings out, the after hours had AA marked up, but lets see if they sell the rally there-same with CSX. This could take a few days, but it should be apparent in 3C pretty quickly.

Keep an eye on those shorts from last night, the ones that are moving down can be phased into 25% or so at a time or a bit more. The one short that ran away today, ABR, I should have elaborated on. Unlike the others, that were mostly already trending lower, this one was/is just entering into a top. It may be a quick double top, but you do want to wait for some confirmation and although I do say all the time "tops are volatile", I should have said something about that one. I still think it will be a nice short, but it's bout $7.60 where resistance comes into play.

Right now, it's back into our "Patience " mode and lets see what the sentiment is like through this week of earnings. Remember, it;s not the news, it's how the market reacts to the news. Speaking of which-BAC is going to be one to keep an eye on-it's still riding the market, almost tit for tat, but I suspect when a reversal comes about, BAC will fall a lot faster then the market.

If you have specific questions on anything-stocks, positions, risk management, etc-email me at BT46N2@gmail. com

For now, use your advantage over Wall Street, "Patience". Oh, and send me some stocks with earnings this week and lets see if we can find some leaks we can try a few quick trades on as an experiment and lesson about how Wall Street is really bent.

If you are feeling nervous about the recent bounce (which I hope I put to bed for you with the post over the weekend), take a look at Trade Guild tonight and note in those time frames, there's not a lot of vacillation-a downtrend is a downtrend, no matter what bounce is in there and you'll see when a downtrend is no longer a down trend.