Closing

For those who don't already know, 3C which is my proprietary indicator, is named so after something Don Worden (one of the most under-appreciated pioneers of moneyflow indicators) said in one of his books, I think "Street Smart Charting", which I have to tell you, if you want a perspective that veers from traditional TA, he offers it. Any way, he said something that stuck with me and has served me well and it the basis for the name, "3C" and that was, "COMPARE, COMPARE, COMPARE". You'll notice I have 3 versions of 3C, I compare every timeframe, I compare every index, I compare short ETFs to the averages they represent, FX, breadth, anything I can. There's no reason in the world that 3C would be negative the S&P/SPY and positive the inverse ETF, SPXU unless there was something that was really going on. 

Now with some help from a friend and member, we have ES and the ability to see 3C in extended hours trading, again, why would ES, a totally different market-Futures, not stocks, show the same thing if there wasn't something to it?

So here are the closing ES and extended hours SPY charts.

 ES 1 min today, closely mirrored what we saw all day in the market, nearly exactly. That last run into the close, ended on the strongest kind of divergence, a leading negative which means there was some heavy duty distribution/short selling in to that run.

 Here's the ES 5 min for Thursday/Friday 24 hours -And again today produced the worst negative divergence I have seen since I started looking at ES with 3C. This also is a leading negative divergence. Note they accumulated in the very thin volume hours of 3 -4 a.m. to push futures up and in the heavy volume regular hours, they distributed in to the highs. That should tell you something about how Wall Street really works. Manipulate the market higher when there's no volume and it costs very little and then sell in to that strength or short it when there's plenty of volume to fill their large positions. That's being gamed.

 Here's the continuous data 3C hourly which includes regular hours plus pre market and after market trade. This is a 20 day chart. Again, note the leading negative divergence now and as usual, in to price strength. Think about the meaning of these actions, why and you'll better understand how Wall Street really works or works people over.

This is the weekly 3C continuous data, the green arrow is where we called for a halt to the sell off and started buying while others thought the market would keep falling, but now this hart is leading negative again.

Some things to chew over. I'm starting to think this next leg down is going to be a lot bigger then expected. I'll be looking in to that this weekend.

Have a great weekend!

GOOG

I've been keeping an eye on this all day and wanted to give it a chance so I waited until the close, this is very surprising activity in GOOG.

 This is the 1 min 3C chart for GOOG, this , at least on the 1 min timeframe, should have raced up to confirm GOOG's price and been in the same area as price. Typically this will happen in the first hour of trade, even if there's distribution on other timeframes, confirmation of the high on a 1 min chart almost always happens or gets very close. Not only did it not happen, but look at the depth chart below which is sort of a MACD for 3C as you will se with very shallow readings or troughs in accumulation areas and very deep readings or crests in distribution areas.

 I checked other charts to see if any confirmed, just very deep readings on the 3C depth chart. Below is an example.

 I included the S&P-500 in blue below for timeframe reference, you can click on the chart for a larger view. Notice when the market broke down and moved much lower, GOOG also made a move lower, the depth chart is marked with red arrows at distribution/reversal points and green arrows at accumulation/reversal points. You can see the deeper the crest and longer it persists, the bigger the move down, conversely at accumulation points, the shallower the trough and longer lasting, the bigger the resulting rally. The October rally was the biggest rally on the chart (the last green arrow to the right). In the middle of the chart, you can see small accumulation zones that caused bounces, note how they are not as shallow as the bigger moves. So hopefully you get a feel for how this works. Then look at how deep the crest was in a 1 day jump today, nearly the same as the distribution at the July 25th top and the rally that led to that top was a 31% rally, this latest October rally was only 19%.

 Here's a close up view of the 15 min chart / October rally. Note the 3C leading positive divergence and the very shallow depth chart. Today that same 15 min chart went down and no matter what time frame I use, there was a huge jump in the 3C depth chart today.

 This blue version of 3C is not the appropriate version for GOOG, but it is the fastest hart to move, yet again, even on a 1 min timeframe, there wasn't even an attempt at confirmation and again the depth chart jumped.

It will be interesting to watch GOOG next week, this looks very much like a sell the news event.

Euro/FXE

Since the Euro has largely been driving trade, we'll take a quick look at it, some bad news is out of Europe as you have probably heard, the latest centers around Dexia Bank.

The fundamental flow of information makes the Euro difficult to analyze, but we'll look any way as it has reached a resistance level.

 Intraday 1 min of EUR/USD

 FXE/Euro 1 min

 Longer term daily chart

Here are the same levels as above.

It seems the Euro is nearing the end of it's short squeeze.

NYSE TICK Chart

Here's the NYSE TICK Index, this is issues ticking up less issues ticking down, you can see a trend that resembles market prices, however that trend was just broken to the downside, which often is an important signal for the Index

Market Update

 DIA 1 min longer term view with a leading negative divergence on the day

 DIA 1 min close up, the DIA 1 min never really showed the accumulation the other averages saw, it just floated with then, there was an afternoon brief period of accumulation, but on the day, there's a steep relative negative divergences as price is in the same area as the open. This is why I said earlier, I would consider phasing in, getting my toes wet, but leave room for any additional upside to short in to higher prices.

 DIA 2 min shows accumulation but 3C is dropping in to rising prices, which is what we want to see when shorting higher prices.

 QQQ 1 min long term view

 QQQ 1 min short term view, accumulation and trading in line with price.

 QQQ 2 min is seeing negative divergences in to higher prices.

 The 15 min was able to use today's price strength to add to the size of the negative divergence, although zoomed out, it has been in a leading negative position.

 SPY 1 min accumulation areas.

 SPY 2 min like the others, showing negative divergences in to higher prices, again what we want to see when shorting in to higher prices
.

 SPY 5 min showing the same

 And today's gap up also provided the SPY an chance to put in a deeper 15 min negative divergence, which was missing in the SPY.

ES made that new low and then went lateral for a bit, as prices have moved up, 3C has started lower again

GLD Update

 As many of you know, I have been talking about an opportunity to buy GLD that only comes around a few times a year, that is a pullback to the 150 day moving average. This time unlike other times over the past year or two, GLD was taken down pretty hard to the 150 m.a. and as such, I said that I think it is best if GLD consolidates along that moving average for several weeks, being the way it arrived at the average was a steep plunge. The declining volume is a sign of a consolidation, however recently it has pulled up and away from the m.a. which is not something I'd prefer to see until GLD is healthy enough to make a run higher.

 GLD 1 min 3C chart -Some recent updates I've noted GLD pulling a bit too far away from the long term moving average and showed a negative divergence suggesting it would fall a bit, which it did at the orange arrow, however not for long as accumulation started and it has moved higher today-it doesn't know if it wants to move as a flight to safety trade or as a week dollar trade, it keeps moving back and worth. Today's price action has run into some resistance and there has been a negative divergence on that.

 GLD 2 min 3C chart the 2 min chart shows the same accumulation as above from yesterday morning and a negative divergence today, which is slight really.

 GLD 5 min 3C chart Here we see the negative divergence suggesting the pullback we saw yesterday and today again it's a bit negative,

 GLD 10 min 3C chart This hart remains negative as long as it is away from the moving average.

 GLD 15 min 3C chart the red line is the moving average area and we see a leading positive divergence here, not quite as strong as the one that lifted prices from the near lows.

GLD 60 min 3C chart-The hourly looks a lot like a consolidation, however, the more it pulls away from the moving average, the more apparent distribution we see. For a healthy consolidation, we want to see accumulation here and I don't think we see that in strong measure while it is off the 150 day average.

USO/SCO Update

So muh for supply and demand moving the market in general and Crude oil in specific, is it OPEC? Is it Tensions in the Middle East and Africa? Is it the Iranian plot to assassinate a Saudi diplomat right here in the US that is moving oil? NOPE! Just adjustments to the dollar.

USO

USO 1 min chart expanded view-The recent divergence here is leading negative, even at new highs

 USO 1 min chart close up-shows us a negative divergence on the open, a slight positive divergence around mid day sending USO higher intraday and since a leading negative divergence.

 USO 2 min chart  A longer term negative relative divergence and some accumulation sending USO higher today.

 USO 5 min chart expanded view-There's a lot here -the red and white arrows are the same I use for 3C divergences, the green and orange are rallies and declines that resulted from the 3C divergences. September a negative divergence sending USO much lower, but there was heavy accumulation into the decline as marked in white with a leading positive divergence sending USO higher. Several short divergences moving USO intraday and a current, very ugly 1 day leading negative divergence. This would imply there's heavy distribution in to the gap up today which also broke a closing resistance level at $33.25 which may be a head fake move/bull trap.

 USO 15 min chart -This long term view shows 3C cause and effect from divergences, again with orange arrows representing price declines, however, like I explained earlier about the market and SPY, there's a long term positive divergence of accrued accumulation that allowed USO to really turn upward on a dime without the need for a "U" shaped bottom to accumulate. Currently this chart is in a leading positive position, partly as a function of the amount of accumulation that went in to this current leg up. There is a relative negative divergence on USO today.

 USO 60 min chart -The hourly chart shows a much less optimistic picture, being a longer timeframe, it s a more important chart, it doesn't give us the same detail as the 15 min, but does show what is a relative (longer term) negative divergence, again this is a function of the long term 15 min accumulation, it's a lot of shares that were accumulated by Wall Street and a lot that need to be distributed, thus we are seeing a 60 min negative divergence and today specifically it has gone leading negative which would imply the price strength is being used to distribute-either selling or short selling.

SCO-UltraShort Crude Oil

 SCO 1 min 3C chart expanded view- a longer term 3C positive divergence

 SCO 2 min 3C chart -Shows several positive divergences in a base like atmosphere including the very common and likely, head fake/false breakdown/bear trap- as SCO broke resistance today, but maintains a positive 3C profile, most likely any stops that were taken out were accumulated as this is one reason for the head fake/false moves.

 SCO 5 min 3C chart 0Shows the topping of SCO as well as what appears again to be a base with a very positive leading divergence

 SCO 10 min 3C chart -positive divergences

SCO 15 min 3C chart  positive divergences on an important reversal timeframe.

USO/SCO Update

So muh for supply and demand moving the market in general and Crude oil in specific, is it OPEC? Is it Tensions in the Middle East and Africa? Is it the Iranian plot to assassinate a Saudi diplomat right here in the US that is moving oil? NOPE! Just adjustments to the dollar.

USO

USO 1 min chart expanded view-The recent divergence here is leading negative, even at new highs

 USO 1 min chart close up-shows us a negative divergence on the open, a slight positive divergence around mid day sending USO higher intraday and since a leading negative divergence.

 USO 2 min chart  A longer term negative relative divergence and some accumulation sending USO higher today.

 USO 5 min chart expanded view-There's a lot here -the red and white arrows are the same I use for 3C divergences, the green and orange are rallies and declines that resulted from the 3C divergences. September a negative divergence sending USO much lower, but there was heavy accumulation into the decline as marked in white with a leading positive divergence sending USO higher. Several short divergences moving USO intraday and a current, very ugly 1 day leading negative divergence. This would imply there's heavy distribution in to the gap up today which also broke a closing resistance level at $33.25 which may be a head fake move/bull trap.

 USO 15 min chart -This long term view shows 3C cause and effect from divergences, again with orange arrows representing price declines, however, like I explained earlier about the market and SPY, there's a long term positive divergence of accrued accumulation that allowed USO to really turn upward on a dime without the need for a "U" shaped bottom to accumulate. Currently this chart is in a leading positive position, partly as a function of the amount of accumulation that went in to this current leg up. There is a relative negative divergence on USO today.

 USO 60 min chart -The hourly chart shows a much less optimistic picture, being a longer timeframe, it s a more important chart, it doesn't give us the same detail as the 15 min, but does show what is a relative (longer term) negative divergence, again this is a function of the long term 15 min accumulation, it's a lot of shares that were accumulated by Wall Street and a lot that need to be distributed, thus we are seeing a 60 min negative divergence and today specifically it has gone leading negative which would imply the price strength is being used to distribute-either selling or short selling.

SCO-UltraShort Crude Oil

 SCO 1 min 3C chart expanded view- a longer term 3C positive divergence

 SCO 2 min 3C chart -Shows several positive divergences in a base like atmosphere including the very common and likely, head fake/false breakdown/bear trap- as SCO broke resistance today, but maintains a positive 3C profile, most likely any stops that were taken out were accumulated as this is one reason for the head fake/false moves.

 SCO 5 min 3C chart 0Shows the topping of SCO as well as what appears again to be a base with a very positive leading divergence

 SCO 10 min 3C chart -positive divergences

SCO 15 min 3C chart  positive divergences on an important reversal timeframe.