It would be a lot faster for me to just update the spreadsheet, but I want you to get more out of this service then trade ideas, I want you to learn how I find them, what makes for a high probability trade and how we handle the risk, even on great looking trades as the market CAN and WILL do whatever it pleases on a day to day basis. Long term, I think it is sunk. The GDP numbers are understood well by Wall Street, thus the charts on the averages looking so bearish, but retail traders by and large will miss the meaning so they will rally on unemployment data-Wall street knows even a great number is an anomaly and they know that with all the stimulus-at the height of government and Fed intervention we were only able to get 1 single quarter of 5% growth. It takes 4 consecutive quarters of 5% growth to bring unemployment own by 1 single percentage point so while main street may cheer any good news, Wall Street knows the truth and there are few if any reports that will trump the last GDP release from Friday. Sure they'll use whatever news retail will react to to swing the market, create volatility and rob traders of their profits, that's what a top is for in their view and practice. Just understand, whatever good news comes out and however the market may react for a day or two or more, can not compare to the magnitude of the bad news in the latest GDP. It's Rock Paper Scissors and a BULLDOZER-GDP was the Bulldozer and it trumps all of them.
That doesn't mean there aren't trades on the long side that can do well, but you may want to consider not getting greedy and taking any extraordinary profits or at least enough to guarantee a profitable trade when you get them because the volatility game will see to it that most of them don't last long.
As for the market....
Here's the SPY and 3C 15 minute chart-As I said, I am an eternal student of the market and when institutional money shut down for a few days before the GDP report, because there was something they weren't sure about-I'm guessing the revisions, I found out that's why 3C 5 min stopped working. I always thought institutional money didn't show up until the 10-min charts, now I know differently. This 15 min chart shows Friday-there's a trading range in the red trend lines, as I mentioned, if smart money wants to move the market, they'll use your money and they did so with false breakout to the downside, which created a short squeeze, pressuring prices up, then created a false breakout on the upside, hitting longs and creating a snowball sell-off effect. 3C was negatively divergent at the breakout-distribution or short selling. Watch the support levels, once $110 SPY is broken, things get hairy. It appears that will happen this week.
Here's the 5-min 3C chart. The red square is when institutional money came back in the market, they forced a positive divergence with a little buying, sending the false breakout back into the range-short squeeze, then a negative divergence by flooding the market with supply, knocking out longs with a snowball effect, and once again, back inside the trading range. This is the volatility they use to take people's money, it's why we use end of day stops, it's why we don't put stops at obvious levels like trading range support/resistance and why we keep our orders in our head, not with our broker where they can see them. right now we are moving toward a negative divergence in leading fashion.
As for trades...
GOOG is on the list 7/23. This is one trade that appears as if it "could buck the trend." Keep n eye for a breakout above the $495 area or check the list for details.
FISV
Take a look at the notes Aug 1. MACD is positive, the breakout has occurred on heavy volume and the first target you can see on the chart.
This is my crossover buy screen, we have 3 buy signals and the pullback area is the yellow 10 day moving average in the top window near the blue box. A pullback to this area would make for a good ling or an add-to if you bought it now.
KONG
KONG is showing the 4 stages-1 accumulation, 2 markup, 3, a top, 4 decline and now back to 1, accumulation. 3C daily is in a positive divergence indicating accumulation in the base as you'd expect.
Here's the 1 day chart for KONG. the positive divergence is impressive.
Here's a bunch of Bollinger Band on KONG. When they pinch, volatility is low and price tends to break out as it did here, again it's fairly tight, it may take a few more days and tighten up more.
Here's the Trend Channel for stops, although the trend is not underway quite yet, I would widen the stop to $5.65 area. The yellow box shows the Bollinger Band breakout that was a 7.42% 1 day move.
ESLR
Here's the Bollinger Bands again. The Green spikes indicate buy signals and you can see the corresponding moves associated with the signals in yellow. The red box shows the bands tightening.
Here's the 5 minute chart if ESLR, both 3C and MoneyStream are showing positive divergences. More info on the spread sheet-7/29.
SCMP
This is breaking out of a Descending Wedge, just like GOOG, it's on the spreadsheet 7/25 and already at a nice profit.
PIR-This is a short-read the notes from the SS. The original notes still pertain from 7/26, but it can also be shorted below $6.59-stop would be $7.78 for now under that scenario (no chart).
EEFT (no chart) On the SS (spread sheet) on 7/29. If you didn't get in, I think you still can with the original note still pertaining to it. Take a look!
AVII on the SS 7/25-7/26 (no chart). Keep a close eye on this one-if you have TeleChart, set an alert for an intraday price breakout (you may need platinum service?-you can also use www.FreeStockCharts.com from what I understand. This is the BEST free charting software available as far as web-based software that is free, it's the only one I know of that is not delayed 20 minutes-it's real time). As a matter of fact, all of these limit trades should have alerts set on them so when they break the limit order, you know about it right away.
NEXM
This is a really strong looking chart for a breakout. It seems to be doing such now. You can find the notes on the SS from 7/26 but I almost feel it's a buy on the open right now. You'll have to decide.
Here's the Bollinger Bands I use and NEXM is pinching now, when we see this it means volatility is low, this almost always precedes a breakout. It also is an indication typically of cheaper prices on option pricing. I like this one a lot, as I do all of them.
ISIS
This is my screen for crossover setups to reduce false signals. Here we have all 3 indications going long. It's already broken out and pulled back to the 10 day moving average which is what you typically see in a good uptrend. You can see the notes from the SS on 7/25, but I feel the pullback is probably over and if I really likes this, as I do, i would not mind entering at the market open-at market price as to not miss any move.
RAD
Here's the daily chart-SS notes are from 7/29. This looks a lot like it's ready to rocket. Although market direction can have some say in that. In any case, being what I see, i like it a lot. As with all of these, check for earnings and anything trading below 200k shares a day and $5 must be considered speculative.
NPD
NPD is a great example of the Bollinger Bands pinching. This is almost a for sure breakout.
Here's the 1 hour positive divergence in NPD and this looks like a pretty decent setup.
Now, as for shorts, I'll be adding shorts as I see them develop on the market, we don't know what the short term is, just the long term. So we use the 25% + cash to play the swings and keep draw down to a minimum and as many members have said, even make some decent money in the process.
Tops and bottoms are very difficult to trade, especially tops and we are in one of the most volatile markets ever seen-just look at the VIX to see the average volatility over the last 10 years. Just surviving this market is a triumph-We are shooting for big profits as well.
Keep n eye on the site, the 5 min 3C is back in business and we should have a hold on decent trends by tomorrow.
If you have questions, please let me know. If you need quick shorts go to the June list-specifically June 3rd and check out the leveraged inverse ETFs-still the best bet in an earnings related environment.
Hold on, this week should be very interesting and I think quite profitable.
Oh-one last thing, there is now a link at the top right on RISK MANAGEMENT. If you have not read it, if you do not have risk management-this is the first thing to read, understand and implement before you trade anything. Without, there's no hope for you long term.
Have a great week everyone!!!
