Today's After Hours Earnings

Remember, the 3C call on these is not about a good or bad report, it's about how the stock will react initially and n the next few days.

Here were the short ideas:


ACTG Short which was a miss so far as it is up big about 11% in AH. Their call was scheduled for 4:30 today.

ALB Short is up about .66% in A.H. with their conference call scheduled for tomorrow.

AMZN Short This is an important one and one which beat the street consensus, still  3C was right on and it's down over 7 points or over 4% A.H.

AXP Short Their profit rose 71% yet they're down 1% AH, the call starts at 5 p.m. today. This is one I said I thought may have a mediocre reaction.

LEG Short This is what I had to say about LEG: "this is a tough call because it appears that some bad earnings may have already been discounted into the stock, which means even on a bad earnings call, it may bounce, however, there was major distribution at it's top. So I would not play the earnings here, but after earnings, this may very make a great short, especially if we get a bounce." Here are the results: Down 11 % in AH call scheduled for tomorrow. While my speculation was off target, 3C was on target with LEG.

PMCS LONG  There seems to be no after hours trade here, they sound like they came in inline on expectations. Their call is scheduled for 5:30 today.

RMBS LONG down -1.45% in AH with the call scheduled for 5 today

RVBD LONG up about 8.5%% in after hours with the call at 4:30

SNDK SHORT Up 9.6% in AH with the call scheduled for 5 pm today

Last Market Update

As I told you there were weak positive divergences and the dollar/equities trade decoupled, we saw rising prices. Now the QQQQ and DIA both have 1 min negative divergences into the close which is interesting given the front running bounce. Is there a bigger dog selling?

BAC looking like decent trend trade.

The top line of the channel is the stop out price. I would build this short in pieces, short any strength so long as it does not close above the trend channel. With risk management/position sizing, there's no reason not to take a shot at this trade with a 2% of portfolio risk.

SNDK One Last Stock

SNDK short reports after the close. There was good accumulation in late September, that seems to have been sold off mid-October. I'm not sure if this is a leak of just reaction to smart money moving positions around **

Market update

Short term positive divergences are taking shape in the 3 majors, these are in my opinion front runners of tomorrow's POMO day. The market has now detached from the FX pairs that have been guiding it all today as the Euro is sliding while the market is up. Again, they are at this point rather small positive divergences, probably as I suggested, retail front running POMO tomorrow.

Some more possible earnings plays.

These MUST be considered speculative because there's no way to control the risk of a gap against you in the morning. Please read each to see if they are long or short.



LEG this is a tough call because it appears that some bad earnings may have already been discounted into the stock, which means even on a bad earnings call, it may bounce, however, there was major distribution at it's top. So I would not play the earnings here, but after earnings, this may very make a great short, especially if we get a bounce.

PMCS LONG Although I'm bearish on semis, I'm including PMCS because of some recent accumulation. It's also in a bullish falling wedge. I'd count this as speculative and give it 1 * because of the overall sector and the only recent accumulation.

RMBS LONG is almost the same as PMCS, I don't like putting it on the list , but there have been 15 min accumulation. I'd watch this tonight, but more so in the days to come should they come out with a decent number. For the above mentioned reasons 1*

RVBD long shows a nice 15 minute positive divergence **

On the earnings list

Scratch CAT as they reported this a.m. FCX says time not supplied but I believe they reported and RL can be scratched. Still looking at others.

Update

If you look at the charts I posted with the gap line support, you can see right now those are being tested. More importantly, the EUR/USD pair has hit a zone of support, the two are trading right now in near synchronicity. The main way to tell what kind of shape the market or stocks themselves are in will be through 3C divergences, volume and price patterns, especially major price patterns and reversals that complete engulfing patterns. CAT's daily chart is a god example, a big engulfing bearish pattern and huge volume.

Earnings Plays

These are all stocks that whether their earnings are good or not, have shown some level of distribution. You can have great earnings and still sell off. 3 starts is the highest probability in my view, 1 star still a probability, but not as strong.


ACTG *

ALB  ***

AMZN bought yesterday for the gap up today, the gap has been sold today. **

AXP not showing any real bad signs, I'm assuming there's either not leaked information or it will be a mediocre reaction either way *

FCX had a very negative divergence on the 60 min chart at the 10/14 top. That is the most obvious divergence seen on the chart **

CAT showed a very negative 30 min divergence on 3C during the entire October top process. **

RL  *

You may want to double check, but all of these should report after the close.

Afternoon Update

As I always say, gap support is pretty darn strong, you can see the huge volume trigged when the gaps were filled, another reason not to put stops in with your broker and not near obvious support/resistance levels.

The chart in FAZ was as card players say, "TELL" Watch the positive divergence or accumulation on the break of resistance earlier today.

Interesting Chart

Here's a chart of FXE an ETF covering the Euro... Keep an eye on volume around mid-day yesterday as opposed to today.

Update

3C continue to trade in-line with price. We are approaching the close from yesterday or the gap support, expect some congestion in this area.

Update

Of course the currency pair and the market both broke down at 12:36. There was a several minute negative divergence in the SPY, Q's and DIA just before the break which I find to be interesting since I can't run 3C on FX.

I'm compiling a list of today's after the bell earnings.

Update

The market is following the Eur/USD pair, around 11:40 the FX pair started a bear flag, the same as the market. I think (other then a black box volume breakout) the market will probably stay in tune with the FX pair for the time being.

Mish-Mash

Today's jobless claims came in as a beat, but only after last weeks numbers were upwardly revised, for the 25th out of the last 26 weeks. This in itself is mixed and almost market neutral. Continuing claims came in bad, again with another upward revision to the prior week. This is viewed as by many QE2 advocates as evidence that they'll get what they want and then some-even if the QE game has changed, they're already conditioned from the last QE operation.

3C is trading or was trading roughly inline, but at a negative divergence to yesterday's position, known as a relative negative divergence (relative between two equal price points).

Here's an example on the SPY

 Trading roughly inline with prices, although there is a negative divergence all the way to the right as price made higher highs, 3C didn't

When zoomed out and compared to yesterday, you can see the relative nature of the negative divergence as price moves to higher highs and 3C is stuck down below.

Since I captured these it looks like that last divergence I mentioned on the top chart has taken hold and price is declining now. We are also seeing a dip in the Euro after the jobless report it jumped a bit. I'll update as things develop.