Friday, October 8, 2010
Don't Forget To Set Those Alerts
Off the 10/5 list we had 10 trades triggered, one was QTM which made 13% in 2 days
Here's the daily 3C divergence into a rounding bottom.
This was an "AT MARKET " Trade so it was entered 10/6 on the open at the red square. Today was a nice breakout on great volume. This trade looks like it has a lot more upside.
The Dow $11,000, Buying it?
Like I said earlier today, today was going to be a volatile day. The EUR/USD is in decidedly, undecided mode as it formed a triangle all day long with each tick higher taking the market higher and each tick lower taking the market lower.
Dow 11,000 is a pretty big deal, psychologically, yet market wise it was akin to another day with the Dow gaining exactly a half a percent +.50%
The volume is the first thing that looks off, I think anyone would admit a breakout of $11,000 should see some volume.
That's not just the lowest volume in the last 4 days, that's the lowest volume in 189 days! You have to go into 2009 to find lower volume.
And the close...
A 2 hour rally retraced 62% and most of that in the last 5 minutes.
Here's the 1 min chart showing when the change occurred..
Here's the more important 5 min chart where we first see institutional money show up.
You can see the accumulation in white and distribution that led to sell-offs in red. Yesterday and today we saw nothing but a pure leading divergence to new lows.
There are a lot of other things I'll show you later in a bigger post, but I wanted you to see this. To me it suggests there was nothing behind this rally other then retail buyers and some market maker trades. Certainly the volume doesn't account for any institutional buying. This looks and smells like a head fake.
Dow 11,000 is a pretty big deal, psychologically, yet market wise it was akin to another day with the Dow gaining exactly a half a percent +.50%
The volume is the first thing that looks off, I think anyone would admit a breakout of $11,000 should see some volume.
And the close...
A 2 hour rally retraced 62% and most of that in the last 5 minutes.
Here's the 1 min chart showing when the change occurred..
Here's the more important 5 min chart where we first see institutional money show up.
There are a lot of other things I'll show you later in a bigger post, but I wanted you to see this. To me it suggests there was nothing behind this rally other then retail buyers and some market maker trades. Certainly the volume doesn't account for any institutional buying. This looks and smells like a head fake.
The Dow $11,000, Buying it?
Like I said earlier today, today was going to be a volatile day. The EUR/USD is in decidedly, undecided mode as it formed a triangle all day long with each tick higher taking the market higher and each tick lower taking the market lower.
Dow 11,000 is a pretty big deal, psychologically, yet market wise it was akin to another day with the Dow gaining exactly a half a percent +.50%
The volume is the first thing that looks off, I think anyone would admit a breakout of $11,000 should see some volume.
That's not just the lowest volume in the last 4 days, that's the lowest volume in 189 days! You have to go into 2009 to find lower volume.
And the close...
A 2 hour rally retraced 62% and most of that in the last 5 minutes.
Here's the 1 min chart showing when the change occurred..
Here's the more important 5 min chart where we first see institutional money show up.
You can see the accumulation in white and distribution that led to sell-offs in red. Yesterday and today we saw nothing but a pure leading divergence to new lows.
There are a lot of other things I'll show you later in a bigger post, but I wanted you to see this. To me it suggests there was nothing behind this rally other then retail buyers and some market maker trades. Certainly the volume doesn't account for any institutional buying. This looks and smells like a head fake.
Dow 11,000 is a pretty big deal, psychologically, yet market wise it was akin to another day with the Dow gaining exactly a half a percent +.50%
The volume is the first thing that looks off, I think anyone would admit a breakout of $11,000 should see some volume.
And the close...
A 2 hour rally retraced 62% and most of that in the last 5 minutes.
Here's the 1 min chart showing when the change occurred..
Here's the more important 5 min chart where we first see institutional money show up.
There are a lot of other things I'll show you later in a bigger post, but I wanted you to see this. To me it suggests there was nothing behind this rally other then retail buyers and some market maker trades. Certainly the volume doesn't account for any institutional buying. This looks and smells like a head fake.
Update
There is now a negative divergence in the QQQQ and very close in the SPY. The DIA is still trading in line.
Here's an interesting read, there is a difference between GOLD the metal and GLD the ETF. Like all ETF's, it's important to read the prospectus as not having done so has led to some major problems over the last few years with them.
GOLD vs. GLD
Here's DIA's 5 min 3C chart. Note the lack of volume today around the $110.00 level.
White=positive divergences/Red =negative divergences.
Here's an interesting read, there is a difference between GOLD the metal and GLD the ETF. Like all ETF's, it's important to read the prospectus as not having done so has led to some major problems over the last few years with them.
GOLD vs. GLD
Here's DIA's 5 min 3C chart. Note the lack of volume today around the $110.00 level.
UPDATE
There's now a small 1 min positive divergence in the DIA at the 2:02 lows. 11,000 is certainly an area of resistance/support that will probably see this battle on for a bit. I'll let you know if anything changes. The 5 neg. min divergence is still leading and still heading down.
Update
Last update we had the negative divergences in place, but like we have seen (I keep saying 85% of the time, but it feels more like 100%). I said this in the last update....
DIA is still in a worsening negative divergence, but there is a triangle in the majors, that would lead me to believe the probabilities are high of an upside head fake first.
You can see the triangle to the left, it's an obvious pattern and an obvious breakout.
DIA is still in a worsening negative divergence, but there is a triangle in the majors, that would lead me to believe the probabilities are high of an upside head fake first.
Update
DIA is still in a worsening negative divergence, but there is a triangle in the majors, that would lead me to believe the probabilities are high of an upside head fake first.
They they are
These are pretty well formed, the last batch were not this far along. It seems HFT or someone juiced the market with AAPL, SMH and tech in general. GLD has also broken it's intra morning move and rounded over. I suspect the dollar may be strengthening or they're expecting it.
Possible Divergences
We have three possible 1 minute divergences "just now" starting to form. They can still go either way, but I wouldn't publish it if I didn't think it was a decent chance.
Update
Not much to report, as expected, the open saw a negative divergence, but since then 3C has been trading in confirmation or in like manner to the major averages, no divergences to report. GLD which is up, does seem to have a 1 min divergence-negative in effect on 1 and 5 min charts. The dollar appears to be headed back up again in this mornings range trade.
A Volatile Day Ahead
Not only do we have noises from the EU regarding currency, but look at these charts of the Dollar/Yen.
Here's the daily chart making new lows. Japan is trying to keep their currency weak against the dollar and having a hard time of it.
The Bear Flag Was A Head Fake?
Yesterday I twice proposed the question, was yesterday's normal market action of breaking down below the bear flag, then rallying back into it the work of black-boxes and market makers/specialists that have been breaking up 85% of these patterns or was it something more serious?
We may have an answer, lets see if it holds.
We may have an answer, lets see if it holds.
Dynamic...
No sooner did I hit publish, see the Euro had given up then entire hourly candle, then this came out..
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/did-jean-claude-juncker-just-declare-currency-war
The Euro has regained some ground, more then half since.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/did-jean-claude-juncker-just-declare-currency-war
The Euro has regained some ground, more then half since.
Jobs Data is Bad, but Is It Bad Enough?
As you probably know, the economy shed another 95,000 workers. It seems some media are puzzled as to why the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6%, as one put it ,
"The unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 9.6 percent."
As I mentioned a few days ago, people are falling off extended benefits and are falling into the murky shadow of U6, which the media act as if they have never heard of. Not surprisingly, the U6 rate rose from 16.7 to an astounding 17.1% this report. That's why U3 headline rate didn't change.
So what's got futures dropping and the dollar rising against the Euro as well as a few other currencies? This is bad news, this should guarantee a second round of QE? Goldman Sachs said yesterday that QE2 at at least 500 billion and from what I understood, nearly a trillion dollars is pretty much already priced into the market. That means if we don't get it, beware the sell-off of sell-offs. So the data, "may" not be as bad as they hoped for a guaranteed round of QE2 and what appears to be happening is the market discounting the possibility.
This is why my post last night stuck to the facts, the market is clearly bearish, but why I'd attempt no guesses as to what smart money may or may not have known because this one was not black and white, the two colors were not even on the palette, it was pure shades of grey.
We'll se what happens, but the Euro had a nice rally going this a.m. and it's now giving up most of that one hour candle spike and futures have fallen way off-another reason I largely ignore extended hours trading.
"The unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 9.6 percent."
As I mentioned a few days ago, people are falling off extended benefits and are falling into the murky shadow of U6, which the media act as if they have never heard of. Not surprisingly, the U6 rate rose from 16.7 to an astounding 17.1% this report. That's why U3 headline rate didn't change.
So what's got futures dropping and the dollar rising against the Euro as well as a few other currencies? This is bad news, this should guarantee a second round of QE? Goldman Sachs said yesterday that QE2 at at least 500 billion and from what I understood, nearly a trillion dollars is pretty much already priced into the market. That means if we don't get it, beware the sell-off of sell-offs. So the data, "may" not be as bad as they hoped for a guaranteed round of QE2 and what appears to be happening is the market discounting the possibility.
This is why my post last night stuck to the facts, the market is clearly bearish, but why I'd attempt no guesses as to what smart money may or may not have known because this one was not black and white, the two colors were not even on the palette, it was pure shades of grey.
We'll se what happens, but the Euro had a nice rally going this a.m. and it's now giving up most of that one hour candle spike and futures have fallen way off-another reason I largely ignore extended hours trading.
