The Big Picture

Last night we were in the “Bermuda Triangle with some strange readings, the 1 minute 3C chart was negative with the 5 minute 3C charts positive. Knowing what we know about the market, my interpretation is they didn't need the 1 minute positive, they had already been tipped off on the Initial/Continuing Claims as these reports run a week behind, there was plenty of time to pickup the positions long to sell into the bounce up today. And sell they did, right from the open, it never let up on 3C. Finally at 12:45 price dropped on increasing volume. The seeming catalyst was the extraordinarily low participation of direct bidders for the Bond Auction This is, in my opinion why the interest this morning wasn't on driving prices higher, but just getting out of their short term longs that were bought specially for today. Once the SPY hit $111, the volume spiked (see the charts posted today) as the stops were hit-again, the market makers went home saying, “Honey, we can buy that new Mercedes” all because people insist on putting stops near whole numbers. Only once did we see a positive divergence and that was the last post I put out today before being held up at BAC for 2 hours to open a simple checking account.

That ended up fizzling out as an ascending wedge which showed us the market trading thinner and thinner until it collapsed near the close. The last hour of the day and increasingly into the close are the most important times of the day for institutional activity, they didn't seem to put in any effort to defend the close.

The Bond auction I mentioned did not go well, with direct bidders coming in at a pace of approximately half the average number of direct bidders. It seems they are backing off and aren't too excited about holding US government debt. With the circus in the Initial Claims this morning, who can blame them. California and Virginia literally guessed at their numbers and the US government did the guessing for 7 other states. Why even bother releasing it? The report has just about zero credibility which raises some other credibility questions as to why the Federal government is guessing about 7 state's unemployment data and releasing that as an official report. It's disturbing.

This post is going to be rather short tonight (in relative terms) because the bottom line is we need a reversal. Today's head fake to the upside which closed lower then the open looked a lot like the example chart of what I expected to see, as I posted the same chart last night, here it is again with today's price action.

I said this weekend and several times this week, don't be surprised to see something like this. After yesterday's move I said, this is what I had in mind-something more along the lines of the June reversal was what I'd expect and posted the chart of the reversal of the June rally. Looking at today's head fake price action in the red box, obviously it's not exactly the same, but as Mark Twain said, history doesn't repeat, but it does rhythm. This was close enough for me to believe that longs bought into the trap. The point of the trap is to accelerate the downtrend just like you see after the head fake in June.

These 3 hourly charts show that as of this moment, it does not appear that institutional money intends on standing in the way of a decline. They are not accumulating like we saw before the bounce that started 8/31 -9/1. 

Forget all the arrows and just concentrate on the yellow 3C as of the bounce started September 1. All 3 versions of 3C show it was used to sell into or more probable to short into, however, that's just an added bonus. The real point is exactly what I laid out before this even started in late August, it perpetuates a snowball effect-the Judo concept of longs selling at deeper and deeper losses, flooding the market with supply and sending prices plummeting like we saw at the June reversal on the chart above with today's comparative activity.

So we need to see prices fall a little of their own weight and get those longs selling at a loss, that's when we get what we've been waiting for. I'd like to see a close below $109.50 on the SPY before I'm really comfortable with increasing directional trade ideas. I think we are headed in the right direction as everything we have seen since late August has come to pass, granted in its own time, but it's all played out. The head fake today, so long as it holds as the high on a closing basis is really the last component, there isn't much more needed.

If the head fake holds and is there for the reason I expected it to be there, then we should get our frenzied sell-off.

Sometimes I think perhaps I'm micro analyzing this market too much. What is important is the trend that things are heading in. So we are going to step back a little and just look at a few trends.

The breadth of the NASDAQ throughout this move up..

In a healthy bull move, that arrow would be white and heading up, not down.

The Dollar...

Despite the volatility between the dollar and the Euro, we have a pretty good general reversal without getting too microscopic-the dollar's relationship with stocks is an inverse one, one heads down, the other heads up so further strength in the dollar does not help the market one bit.

Here's the daily, I'd prefer to use the dollar index, but we don't have volume data for it. So here's the daily UUP

And most importantly, despite some sites talking about an inverse H&S bottom which as of now shows the exact opposite of the needed volume, we have a major top right where you'd expect to find it.

Remember, markets have for centuries run in a 4 stage cycle. Stage 1 accumulation or a base (Jan. 2009-March 2009). Stage 2, Mark Up (July-ish 2009-April 2010). Stage 3, Distribution/Top (November 2009-present) and Stage 4, Decline (what we are waiting on-starts in earnest at the break of the June lows and the red trendline.

A lot of people were faked out by a H&S top that really wasn't around June 2009, volume is exceptionally important to confirm a top so here's a simple cumulative volume indicator I created to show you where volume was heavy and light.

The pink line is the indicator. Concentrate on the rallies and sell-offs during the top. What you want to see to confirm the top is advancing volume on the declines in price and lighter volume on the advances, logically it should make some sense. Look at the volume spike on the decline forming the right side of the head. Look at the last two rallies, volume is falling to new lows, buyers are simply not buying advances, this is the key to confirming a H&S top.

So I wanted to show you the bigger picture, it's easy to get lost in the lines.

Today's dominant price/volume relationship was price up, although it certainly was a bearish day for price action, an volume down-again this is the most bearish of the 4 possible combinations, but you could have guessed that looking at the chart above as volume spikes downward.

3C 1-min ended today in a plunge down after the last rally attempt of the day failed and volume on the sell-side was huge. I see no positive divergences in the SPY right now jumping out so I'd have to guess that we are in the place we'd like to be or are heading in that direction, but again, nothing matters so much as price. A 3C divergence may help you make money, but only price moving puts it in your pocket.

As for trade ideas, I'm putting up a new list for September finally, it should be up tomorrow.

If you got into PRWT tighten up that stop a little on a closing basis, but give it a chance to show some upside follow through. The divergences there remain positive.

Tonight I want to show you JNPR Juniper.

April, a nice break-away gap that was never filled, this is like the last nail-the volume was huge as well. July it rallied with the market as tech seems to be really swinging far on the pendulum, both up and down. Then another huge break on volume. The recent rally looks way over-extended with no volume whatsoever to support it, it's like a narrowing, thinning plank-would you want to walk to the end of it? The yellow arrow shows the lack of volume.

Today's candlestick is called a "Bearish Engulfing Reversal Pattern" It swallowed 3 previous days-pretty much their entire range. JNPR opened on a gap up at its high and closed nearly at the low of the day. Today's candle alone, by itself is extremely bearish. The volume was also up today. Now this is where people always make the mistake, they look for huge volume spikes. Remember, to make money, you have to see what the crowd missed. What the crowd probably missed was the day before JNPR crashed both times, there were slight increases in volume, just like today. It's those little details people miss.

I would consider JNPR a short at the market open, unless it drops huge. I'd put a stop just above today's high, maybe 3% above it and certainly NOT at $29. Then, I'd hang back and let it do it's thing. Remember, I try to never execute a stop because of intraday volatility, only on a close through my stop, meaning the last minute or so of the day, otherwise you get stopped out left and right on otherwise good trades. 

In my opinion, JNPR is headed for the high to mid teens, but if the market collapses, you can adjust that significantly lower.

Until I get the new spreadsheet up, here's a list of other short trades worthy of a serious look.

AAPL, SNDK, HPQ, CSCO, OVTI, CAVM, PG, CTRP, ISRG, HMSY, DECK, ABC and GIL 

On the long side, take a look at GOK-this is a consolidation pattern that I would consider right here with a stop around $4.57

I'll get these ideas on the new spreadsheet for you, they all look good to me though.

Until tomorrow....

One last post before I run

There's a 1 min positive divergence, expect a bump up. They may be setting up an afternoon sell-off but we won't know until we see what they do with it.

Please read the annotations on the charts below. The only news I see to account for the sell-off is the lack of direct bidders in today's bond auction. I think it was 8.3% vs. an average of 17.9% The timing of the sell-off seems to be about the same time the auction results would have been released. Riddle me this, why were we seeing such an aggressive negative 3C divergence just around 11 a.m.? The market has it's secrets, but someone didn't like something quite a bit earlier then the sell-off as market makers were moving out and fast. Remember, I put up the 1 min 3C-that's the turf of market makers. They obviously were getting out before "something unfavorable" was released.

Again-watch your stops, whole numbers are an easy target-look at the volume-that's orders being hit.

It says 15, but this is a 10 min 3C chart, it gained zero ground with the big gap up, in fact it appears that institutional short selling was underway.

Here's the DIA 5 min-same deal, no support whatsoever.

As I said last night, we get these strange occurrences in 3C, but they clear up quickly and it seems like there's always some big, interesting surprise that throws them out of whack momentarily. Learning more every day.

I have to run to the bank and I'll be back soon so don't think I'm ignoring your emails.

As a reminder

Many of you may feel anxiety about the price moves and I've tried to ease that by showing you how Wall Street manipulates your emotions, because your emotions -rather most trader's emotions dictate their decisions. When we hit emotional extremes and can no longer take it we tend to get out of the trade, which leads to that ultra-painful experience of then seeing the trade move in your direction-selling at the bottom, covering at the top, they both really hurt our morale.  I struggle with these things too even after having been a day trader, trading for a living, advising people with a lot of money in the market, -they are all things that can cause a heavy emotional burden. Even writing every night here at WOWS is an emotional burden because the market is going to do things that I know are extreme, but typically head fakes.

The only solace I can find is in objective data. Even if I am wrong, at least I made my choices using objective data rather then an emotional response.

So I just wanted to show you the very important 1 hour 3C chart. It shows where the bounce began it's accumulation and the distribution that is present throughout-even on a day like today, it is steadily moving down. I can wonder, as can you, "what if it doesn't work this time" and all I can say is that 3C divergences have a very high likelihood of working out, I don't recall very many important time frames that have failed. You can see they worked in the past, so until I have reason to believe otherwise, I let the weight of the evidence dictate my analysis.

So I just wanted to show you this chart one more time. NO MATTER WHAT, you must do what you are comfortable with and what your risk management dictates. I'm just here to hopefully help you through the tough patches, see the market uncovered for what it really is and try to aid you in your journey toward a successful outcome in the market place. It's no place for the faint of heart.

Update-3C 1 min makes new lows

I can only go back on the 1 min. chart a little over 2 days, but as you see, 3C made new lows while prices are at new highs. This is an extreme form of a leading divergence.

and before I can even get this out to you, it looks like it's starting to sell-off now.

PRWT

From our list just trigged long

Oil Inventories

Were down, anyone remember the rally in oil "The improbable rally" that 3C called in the face of data that showed no reason for a rally? Well we get out first drop in awhile and USO is selling off right now. Recall last night I said I saw nothing other then a 1 -min positive divergence to suggest a move up in oil. Well 3C seems to be working like a well oiled machine. The 1-minute fits with the gap up, the rest of what had been seen fits with the sell-off in USO that started around 11 a.m.

Still there may be an opportunity like the "improbable rally when oil sold off and we bought the lows on a 3C positive divergence. So it's worth watching.

By the Way...

We just got a major negative divergence on 3C.

Maybe investors aren't too happy with the government's guessing for the states? Truly unreal. At least put the release off until you have the data, unless..... nevermind

The Shell Game

I talked earlier about the initial and continuing claims and the fact that the only honest thing in the report that could be objectively verified seems to be bad news. If that is even correct.

ZERO HEDGE felt much the same way I did, (I was wondering if anyone really cared about anything other then the headline number considering the gap up this a.m.). So read this quick article, I think it is enlightening and just is another link in the chain of manipulation between the market, the Fed, the Treasury and the Administration plus other shady organizations that I won't get into.

The thing about manipulation is it can only last so long before they run out of fingers to plug the leaks. They're betting they can keep it up until the economy turns or maybe until the mid-terms (GDP has shown that's not going to work out too well), but in truth, with each manipulation (and we have a member here who is very up on the POMO scam as is Zero Hedge ) there's less trust in our economy from foreign lenders and investors and the balance sheets can only stay bloated for so long. Ever wonder why volume dropped off so heavily during the great bear market rally of 2009? It's the "Butterfly flaps it's wings in China" concept-there are consequences and we have seen the consequences of the US government basically running the last bull market up (and I was talking about this at the time) almost purely from homeowners spending their massive equity lines. We saw how that worked out and we're not even done with that one.

Here's the article about guessing what the initial claims were from ZERO HEDGE

Update

We may have our first positive divergence forming.... Still, it does so within the context of a negative position.

In Contrast...

TZA an inverse ETF (bearish on the market) is showing both accumulation and confirmation on the top 1 min chart and look at the relative position of 3C on the 5 min chart below-that's one heck of a leading divergence.

First 3C Update

The question I wonder and a few members have wondered about is how the market will take this release considering it's nearly 20% of the states guessing and the government doing most of the guessing. California alone not reporting actual figures is scary considering California has the biggest economy in the US and the 8th largest in the world.

This may explain that 3C data on the 5-min chart last night. Remember I told you we were in the Bermuda triangle with the indicators-this seems to be a pretty plausible reason why.

Overall, 3C 1 minute did not follow price higher, no confirmation means distribution and we see that in price as I suspected a gap like this might provide any way. There's a current question as to whether a positive divergence will be formed considering at the time I took this capture 3C was still heading down. I just looked and it is not going to be positive, it just made a low for the day.

The 5 min charts show the same thing, 3C lower today then yesterday and just made a new low for the day. We may get that example scenario after all if this keeps up.

Continuing the Claims

Why Jobless Data Is So Important...

Did you know that consumer spending in the U.S. Accounts for roughly 70% of our economy?

Looking closer at the data, new claims dropped 27,000 from the previous week to come in at 451,000. However the previous week was 472,000, which is a drop of 21,000. What about the other 6,000? As usual REVISIONS. Last week's data was revised UP from 472,000 to 478,000-6000 more then were reported last week. So this week looks particularly strong in contrast.

Can we trust the numbers? I think we will see a huge revision and thus the market may not be as excited about this report as you might expect.

NINE states, did not report their numbers because of the Labor Day Holiday, which allowed California, one of the biggest economies in the world, to estimate their claims as well as Virginia. As for the other 7 states, well guess who had the honor of guessing what their numbers were? The Federal Government were allowed to make the guesses for those states. I don't know about you, but for me, that's like letting the fox count the eggs in the hen house.

Also in this report, people on unemployment was little changed, the number of people receiving UE benefits fell by 2,000 to 4.48 million the forecast was a drop to 4.45 million. People on extended unemployment actually increased by 29,300 to 5.47 million. Something tells me in are in for a big revision next week.

Initial Claims, Continuing Gains

The data is out and ironically, it appears we will get that gap that I posted the last several days as an example of "What we might expect". That gap was about 1.4% on the SPY and right now we are looking at a figure around 1.3%.

Typically gaps get faded so as a quick trade you might pick a leveraged index ETF and short a little within about the first 10 minutes of trade, typically it'll fall as the market makers fade the opening gap and you are out of the trade usually in less then an hour. You take a risk that the gap up is not faded, but usually they are.

So like the example I put out that gapped way up and closed quite a bit lower, we have to keep our eye on the market as we knew about the 5 min positive, but we still have a bunch of longer negatives. Don't forget Tuesday's surprise news... Inventories for Crude later this a.m.

Back Into The Triangle...

I had 2 really good questions tonight. The first was basically a question regarding the outflow of money we are seeing in the market, particularly in pooled managed assets like a mutual fund. The question was more or less "how can the market advance when we have huge sums of money exiting equities?"

My answer, although there could be several, is this:

For the sake of example only, lets assume the Dow 30 is actually the Dow 10 (so I don't have to list all 30 stocks). The stocks in the Dow-10 would be IBM trading @ $126, MMM @ $82.75, AA @ $11.07, BAC @ 13.37, GE @ 15.70, PFE @ $16.65, INTC @$17.90, CSCO @ $20.64, MSFT @ $23.93 and T @ $27.39. That is our fictional Dow-10, but using the real closing prices today.

The averages are weighted according to price, not Market Cap. If they were weighted by Market Cap the market would be much lower.

In our fictional scenario, MMM and IBM both gained 1% and all of the other 8 stocks in our Dow 10 lost 1%. The breadth would be extremely negative, we'd have 1 advancer for every 4 decliners, our A/D line would be very ugly. THIS IS WHY I PAY ATTENTION TO MARKET BREADTH. The Dow-10 would actually close higher for the day unbelievably because the net gain of the two advancers would have been $16.85. The net loss of the 8 other Dow-10 components that each lost -1% would be a loss of $15.16 so our net gain would be positive by $1.66. The Dow-10 would close higher even though we only had 2 advancers and 8 decliners. We know there's manipulation in the market place and the money that was flowing out would not change anything if the smarties moved only 2 stocks higher and it's not hard to do. Market makers could work the bid/ask higher, perhaps there were good earnings in IBM and MMM, whatever the case, the outflow of money would not effect the Dow's actual gain or loss. On the opposite side of the coin, we could have those 8 stocks all advance 1% and the 2 decline 1%. We'd have 4 advancers for every 1 decliner and the Dow would close lower for the day. This is a house of cards, eventually it will come tumbling down if not for that reason alone. There market is thin and has been getting thinner ever since the 2009 bear market rally kicked off.

The other question put to me was the market tonight is trading higher in after-hours, and “do I think there's a leak of the Jobless Claims data that is causing this?” I don't know what is causing it, I didn't see anything that stood out to account for it.

However, to answer the question, I'd say there are tons of possible reasons why, but I can think of one that I witnessed and was a part of that would perhaps indicate the very opposite, that the jobless claims would be negative if leaked. Understand I'm not making a statement of what I think jobless claims will come in at, I'm just giving a hypothetical answer based on experience.

I had an order once in after hours when I was relatively new to trading, the market is very thin in after hours and a lot games are played. I don't recall the stock or price, just the situation. I wanted in bad. I put in a market order for 100 shares of a particular stock (currently most after hours trading is now limit orders only). Because after hours volume is so thing and your options for routing orders through ECNs can be severely restricted as is your view to what is actually available at what price and quantity, I had a situation where I had a market order of 100 shares. They filled at my price, but only for 5 shares, the rest of the shares were filled at a significantly higher level, this can happen in certain orders in the regular market but it's or it was, much more likely in the extended market. They can change the bid/ask size in micro seconds. There are a lot of variables depending on your broker, what they will allow, the ECN you are routed through, its access to other ECNs and in what stocks they will allow it. Truly, depending on your broker and a lot of other variables, there are tons of variables unlike regular market hours. Many will only fill round lots like 100 and most require limit orders now. This can lead to you missing an entry and if you want the trade, then you may be forced to chase it higher, especially if you show your hand of how many shares you want. They'll just keep moving the ask up.

Now, here's what happened which could be contrary to the idea of the jobless claims coming in with a good number.

I owned a bio-tech stock and the next day they were to receive an answer from the FDA regarding whether their new drug would be accepted or not. I think it closed around $10 during regular hours. I got a call from a friend who put in an order to sell in after hours at a price of maybe $10.50 hoping to catch some newcomer during the extended market, his order was filled. So I looked and saw there were 5000 share bids and they were hitting orders at $10.50 and higher. I put half of my shares out at $11 and I got filled, then the bid came back down to $10.50 so I put the rest of my shares out and sold at $10.50. They kept flashing large bid sizes of 5000 and 10,000 blocks. Soon the market became very active, the spreads between the bid and ask were very wide and eventually the price ended up around $11 as this market got very active. We had a 10% gain in after hours. The assumption was there was a leak regarding the FDA letter and it would be good for the stock so people saw these bids and often they'd disappear and reappear, but the market climbed and retail Joes were buying up the stock left and right. Come the morning the FDA letter was released and the drug was not declined, but the FDA rather said they wanted to see more tests. The stock the next day in regular hours was cut in half-trading 50% lower. The smarties knew about the letter alright and they hit a few 100 shares asks at higher prices and enticed the Joes to enter the market on the buy side creating a buying frenzy, at the same time apparently, the smarties bought enough to get the frenzy going, but they spent the rest of the session selling to fill the Joe's orders. So the game left a lot of Joes holding the bag as they saw their investment get cut in half the next day. Sp we had a very active after hours market with extreme gains, but in the end it was a trap.

Many people attribute the 2009 bear market rally to after hours activity and manipulation. Look at the chart, the entire rally was on lower and lower volume, but all they needed was an earnings report or some kind of news to drive prices up in the extended market. The next day the market/stocks gapped higher as retail investors rushed into the market after seeing the AH trades.

In after hours there's very little volume and the spreads can be huge. The flashed bid and ask sizes make Joes think something is going on and they chase these wide bids higher, but it doesn't mean that good news is coming out, it's just the game that is played and the players are smart institutional players who have been doing this a long time before the general public was given the ability, about a decade ago to participate in extended trading.

So there's a lot of unsavory characters out there and a lot of manipulative tactics. I avoid extended trading altogether and don't put much thought into the prices I see as far as my analysis goes. Unless you specialize in this kind of trading, I'd stay away.

So I don't know why it's up tonight, but I'm not too concerned.

As for today, I warned something like this could happen, over the weekend and last night. To be honest though, I expected a much bigger scare move up, we may still get it?

As for the market today, the Beige Book in reality showed what we've known since Q1 2010 when GDP fell off from 5%. The reality is different from the perception being sold. The perception is we have growth, it's just slowing. The reality is the economy is tanking and heading dangerously toward a double dip. There's no sign that growth is slowed, but stable. Growth has slowed and continues to slow.

Here's our daily chart.

We got the close higher, but the long wick on the candle showed it to be a day that wasn't likely to create the false break out I mentioned.

We have some interesting 5 minute 3C charts showing apparent positive divergences like this one of the DIA

However the 1 minute came in a bit differently...Here's the Q's hitting a new daily low in the 1 min chart.

Then we have the more significant SPY 10 minute chart showing a leading divergence that is near the levels before the bounce started. This suggests to me that nor only did they sell all the inventory, but put in a decently large short position.

Right now there's a lack of consistency and I'm not sure what's behind it. I'm thinking we still may get that new high head fake like we saw in MSPD

The yellow box is the head fake and it led to lower prices, I believe it will tank soon, especially when it breaks the support level of the bear flag.

MSPD is still a trade I like a lot. It does appear we'll see some early strength in the a.m. which may be a good time to enter or add to that trade. There are several 1 min positive divergences there, the 5 min is showing a lot of distribution, but that doesn't mean it won't gap up and test resistance perhaps as high as $7.50. Still the 5 min negative divergence ultimately trumps any 1 min move.

More appropriately, the same chart I showed you last night of the SPY in June.

Note that we had a poorly formed hanging man, the reversal set up we have now is much stronger, but that day with the arrow was the head fake that made a new high and then came crashing down. Anyone who has studied traditional candlestick charting knows that this is not the expected outcome and this is precisely why Wall Street perpetuates these manipulations.

Tomorrow is probably going to be a bigger release then today's with the 8:30 release of Initial and Continuing Claims. We also get the Trade Balance at 8:30 and Crude Inventories at 11:00 a.m. so there are a lot of important, market moving releases tomorrow. However in the long run, the GDP falling and the employment picture is simply the high man on the Totem Pole. Traders can't ignore the long term implications for short term, volatile reports that refuse to form a trend that shows improvement. They can however use them to set up head fakes and bull traps. Remember that a failed move almost always reverses and quickly and falls far.

I don't see anything in USO that suggests we'll see a rally in oil tomorrow, at least nothing consistent. It's one of those charts where if it doesn't jump out at you, I pass it by. So I'm not expecting much there on the upside. There's only 1 one minute chart showing a positive posture, the rest are showing negative divergences.

In fact most 3C charts are nearly lateral or in line with price. 3C does not always have a finding in a chart every time. It picks up on unusual activity of accumulation/distribution. This suggests to me that smart money is not always active in the market. It may be that they have set up their position and are just waiting for it to play out. They don't need to be active everyday, just as you set up a trade and wait for it to play out.

So given the uncertainty in the charts, all around(in the short term only, the longer term is still solidly bearish), my best “Guess”, and it has nothing to do with after hours, but more to do with the 5 min positive divergences, is that we will see a volatility move higher, perhaps a new high which sets up a bull trap and reversal with extra momentum to the downside. The close of the TICK Index seems to support the view of higher prices in the a.m., but this isn't an especially strong signal, it's just another piece of the puzzle that fits with the 5 min negative divergences.

Back to breadth...

Look at the NASDAQ Advance/Decline ratio for today-it wasn't positive and we've had days of this, price moving up on fewer and fewer stocks.

As for the Price/Volume relationships, the overall market closed up on declining volume-this is as bearish a relationship as you get. The exceptions were the NASDAQ 100 that closed up on advancing volume (very bullish)-but did so on fewer stocks for the !/D chart above into the close, the Dow also had a bullish P/V relationship as well as the S&P. . The broader Russell 2000 and 3000 both closed up on lower volume (very bearish). If this seems confusing, that the NASDAQ closed up on higher volume and it's dominant P/V relationship internally was strong as compared to the a/d line, remember that the A/D line is looking at 5-minute intervals and how many stocks are participating in each interval.

This is one of those strange Bermuda Triangle days when I wish I could tell you, we have XYZ telling us the highest probabilities are “XYZ”, but that is simply not the case today and beyond what I have said, anything else would be pure conjecture with no objective basis. These periods happen and I'm not sure why, but they typically pass within a day or so.

Tomorrow should be exciting.