More from WOWS Global Analysis

Remember, the words, "the economy has accomplished more then 10,000 Al Qaeda terrorist/martyrs could have dreamt of" and this lesson won't be lost on them. The fulcrum is not terrorism, it's economics. In that light, here's a story I was just emailed.




Iraq's biggest oil refinery at Baiji, 180 kilometers north of Baghdad, was blown up early Saturday, Feb. 26, by an Al Qaeda cell activated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Al Qods Brigades, debkafile's Middle East sources report. Tehran is using the Middle East turbulence to generate fuel shortages in Iraq and boost oil prices worldwide.
Thursday night, Feb. 24, saw the first signs of unrest in Saudi Arabia with demonstrations by young people demanding reforms of the kingdom's system of government and by Shiites living and working in the kingdom's oil-rich eastern regions. They demonstrated at Awwamiya in Qatif in solidarity with the protests in Libya and Bahrain. They also demanded the release of detainees rounded up by Saudi security authorities among the two million Shiites living and working in the main oil centers of Saudi Arabia to nip potential unrest in the bud.
Friday, in the Red Sea town of Jeddah in the west, a group calling itself "Jeddah Youth for Change staged a demonstration.
The slightest sign of unrest in Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is bound to affect the price of oil. Iran is the biggest beneficiary of soaring prices. Day after day, as Arab capitals are beset by popular turbulence, Tehran is watching the damage caused its economy by international sanctions shrinking.
 In 2010, sanctions slashed Iran's oil revenue from $120 billion to $80 billion, i.e. 6.6 billion a month, whereas in February, 2011, it shot up to $10 billion as a result of Middle East unrest.
Early Saturday, Tehran gave the oil market another nudge by knocking Iraq's biggest refinery out of action just hours after clashes with anti- government rallies left nine dead in three North Iraqi towns.
The gunmen shot four refinery guards and engineers and blew up the Al Shamal unit, its main kerosene and benzene producer, leaving sticky bombs in other operational units to explode after they fled. It took hours to put the fire out. The entire installation is now closed. "We are not talking about days," said a refinery official, "The damage is too severe."
The Baiji refinery working at 70 percent capacity produced 150,000 barrels per day. Oil experts estimate that Iraqi towns face a 35 percent decline in petrol supplies for several months, with effect on world prices and domestic stability in the country.
debkafile's intelligence sources report that the sabotage of the Iraqi refinery marked another stage in the fuel war becoming an integral part of the rising tide of protest engulfing the Middle East since Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution erupted in January. On February 5, the Palestinian Hamas used the uprising in Egypt to blow up the Sinai gas pipeline to Israel and Jordan. Supplies have been cut off since then.
In Libya thus far both Muammar Qaddafi and the opposition fighting him, mainly in Cyrenaica, have refrained from touching the country's export trade of 1.8 million dollars a day. However, the fighting in oil-sensitive areas is thought to have cut supplies by half. It is estimated that Libya's partition between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania will split half of its oil resources roughly equally between the two entities, leaving the export terminals with the rebels.
Whoever ends up ruling Tripolitania will have to come to terms with Cyrenaica over the use of those facilities or build new ones. That is why Qaddafi's opponents are fighting so crucially for control of the four outlying towns of Tripoli on the Mediterranean coast - Sirte, Misrata, Zawiya and Zuara.  Without them, the Libyan ruler has no way of exporting the oil produced in Sahara fields.

As We Said..

The radicals have been biding their time. History shows 1 thing with regard to revolutions and power vacuums, it's not the most popular who wins, it's the best organized. Recent presidential elections in the US have even shown that and as I noted, Hamas has been in Egypt for nearly 3 weeks now coordinating with the Muslim Brotherhood.

For Al Qaida , this is a gift from Allah and they are now making their presence known..

The Story...

This is not an Islamic Revolution

In the recent past I've listed a number of countries seeing protests, many outside of the middle east and Africa including Europe. We have seen the initial stages of protests in China, North Korea, south Korea and now Vietnam -Article Here from Al Jazeera.

This has more to do with the inflation that CPI refuses to acknowledge and threatens several varieties of Black Swan Events. The UK's latest inflation and GDP are putting them in a spot in which they have to consider raising interest rates. I have berated Bernanke for playing the innocent role of "QE? Causing civil unrest? No!" As he recently said when asked during a Q&A, his smug answer was that central bank policy can't add one bushel of corn. This is not only smug, sarcastic, but condescending as we all know that Bernake's QE or the Bernanke Put has caused money to be borrowed at nearly zero interest and invested in risk assets so you can effectively say that the Fed IS EXPORTING INFLATION.

Take a look at the CRB (commodities) Index and tell me the rising prices caused by ultra low interest rates have not fueled immense speculative activity in all risk assets including the stock market.

LOOK AT THAT VERTICAL RISE SINCE QUANTITATIVE EASING. The Fed has now not only put the American economy in extreme danger as traders have leveraged up on margin debt to levels not seen since the bull market top in 2007, but they are now contributing to inflation worldwide, that's what these revolutions are about, however, what they turn into may be something completely different. This is the MOST dangerous Fed we have ever seen, one that is fueling world political turmoil.

Furthermore, QE can not last forever and when the Bernanke put is removed (and the market's recent dip may be discounting that now) the failure of the SEC to address structural liquidity problems may very well cause the greatest bear market drop we'll ever see-Which for us is not entirely bad as we will be there to take advantage of the change. However, millions of Americans and possibly billions of people around the world are going to pay the price for Bernanke's "academic experiments". I feel it is because he's putting the "too big to fail banks" first as the Fed shows it does NOT have the self proclaimed political independence and as these banks show record trading quarters.

Here's the Vietnam Story-the World just got a little more dangerous.

Could I have not written this?

OK, this isn't a pat on the back, but if you put together the sum of my posts and videos, is there much daylight between what I've been saying and what follows in this article?

It's not that you need to be a guru to see it, you just need to open your eyes to see it and many have been blinded by the Bernake Put that has ramped the market up, oh how greed blinds us. My job is to help you make money, but in a responsible way. I think this article is an excellent read as it does a better job then I have to put many of the pieces together in one article. Of course members know my mind toward this, but for newer members, this is a must read.

Just remember, change is not be feared, it's an opportunity and perhaps one of the biggest we'll see in our investing lifetimes.

The Article...