Fooling Around

I've spent most of the night backtesting trading systems, mostly based on volatility, 3C and a long stochastics. Results in the past are pretty good, results over the last 6 months are not as good, mostly due to the choppiness of the markets. Very short term trades recently have tested the best, at least the highest percentage of winners, but the percentage gains have been hardly worth the risk.

In any case, in poking around the market, the one thing that stood out today, was the exact opposite of what stood out Tuesday night-the Price/Volume relationship. I know it's not a fancy indicator and most people probably don't even understand or are aware of the 4 potential relationships. What stood out Tuesday night was Price Down and Volume Up by a 2:1 margin over the second place pairing. In essence this was a short term oversold reading. This was 1 of 3 things I mentioned on Tuesday that lifted the possibility of a bounce which of course we have seen.

Tonight's dominant relationship is the believe it or not, most bearish relationship-Price UP (yes it's still the most bearish of the 4) and Volume Down. The dominance was even stronger then Tuesday night's with averages like the Russell 2000 coming in nearly at a 3:1 dominance over the next relationship which was as  you'd expect Price up/ Volume Up which by the way is the most bullish relationship, but not when the first is seen in between a 2:1-3:1 ratio over the second. This indicates traders backing away from chasing higher prices.

Of course this is still a very fundamental market or news driven and the employment report at 8:30 will take center stage. Remember with news, it is never the news that matters, but how the market react to the news.

Charts Request

Because the Dow is the only average that includes custom indicator intraday data, I included it.

 DIA 1

 DIA 5

 DIA 15

 DJ-30 1

 DJ-30 5

 Dj-30 15

 QQQQ 1

 QQQQ 5

 QQQQ 15

 SPY 1

 SPY 5

SPY 15

SPY daily

Dollar Chart Request

I have to use UUP as usual because the dollar index does not have intraday charts.

Dollar divergences 10 min chart.

The dollar was extremely overbought so a correction is not very surprising.

I was asked earlier in an email about it, I answered I'm not too concerned as long as it holds around the 10-day m.a.

The yellow line is the 10-day m.a. This is the screen I use to avoid false m.a. whipsaws, with 3-4 components all having to be positive, all 4 are still positive.

That didn't take long

I just posted the channels and mentioned the possibility of black box manipulation. The initial signs look like a false breakout.

Rangebound

My first update this morning I said to watch for a "Trading Range" to develop, we have it. We also have the black box systems still active, they'll easily see the range so there's a high likelihood of a few tricks around support and resistance, volume spikes on breaks of either will confirm the black boxes are getting their way, but ultimately these ranges will be important to watch as they develop.

PMs Chart Request

 GLD 1  min

 GLD 10 min looks like the distribution is catching up with GLD

 SLV 10 min-similar to GLD

SLV 1 min

Charts longer then 10 minutes are not inferring anything as of yet.

5 min Update

 DIA 5 min

 QQQQ 5 min

SPY 5 min

Market Darlings Being Taken Down?

I just read how NFLX's CEO just sold another 100,000 shares and only owns 51,563 shares. I decided to take a look at a few other market POMO darlings just out of curiosity.

 AAPL 1 min up +.06% today

 NFLX 15 min down -2.92% today

PCLN 60 min -.65% today

None are performing with the market and have not been the last few days either.

A Different Metric

Looking at ETF's in different categories, the charts below compare the long/bull to the short/bear underlying action.

 FXI CHINA 25 Long

FXP CHINA 25 UltraShort

 QID QQQQ Ultrashort


 QLD QQQQ Ultralong

 TWM Russell 2000 Ultrashort

UWM Russell 2000 Ultralong

It 's a little early for an update

as morning trade is not the most reliable indication, at least until it settles in, but here are the charts right now...

 DIA 1 min leading negative

 QQQQ 1 min close to a leading negative, but negative

SPY 1 min

As you can see the early divergences have already halted the upside trend, it will take a little longer for a trend to settle in. I'd look for a trading range first.