slv update

SLV 1 min recent accumulation

 SLV 2 min accumulation and one of the strongest ares seen in awhile.

 SLV 5-this could possibly turn in to a positive divergence where SLV may make for a decent entry on the long side.

 SLV 10 min. A leading positive divergence

 SLV 10 min is in line today with the price trend

 SLV 15 min, leading positive divergence and in line today with prices.

 SLV 15 min 3C depth chart, shows this to be one of the shallowest troughs since Feb. 2011

 SLV 30 min showing a relative positive divergence

SLV 60 min, another relative positive divergence.

You have to be aware of the COMEX risks when trading the PMs, but SLV may offer a decent low risk/high probability entry soon.

Model Portfolio trade

I do like the UNG trade idea I featured below

I have a feeling this could be a longer term trade then the other long trades we have on. I'll be adding it to the equities model portfolio as well as the new Options model portfolio.

I'll also be watching for a low risk/high probability entry in to crude/USO, probably via a leveraged long like UCO.

I'm also partial to gold, although risk management here is a must. Remember the last time the COMEX went on a margin raising spree with silver, they raised it 5 times, about 1x every other day.

So far, Pretty Good

Remember this post earlier? Taking action and starting to lock in some profits...


And then this post... A decent looking short term environment to take profits in to.

 Here's the second post time and we saw a nice little pop off the Bollinger band squeeze to take partial profits in to.

And good thing as well, here's the action in the SPY since.


It's normal and healthy to get a pullback during an uptrend, it keeps the market excesses out and prevents an overbought condition. Hopefully we'll see some short term accumulation as the market pulls back, which will allow those who want, to add those positions back and take more substantial profits on the next move higher. Or you can just take profits as we move up without all of the trading around of positions.

UNG Update

This is one we have been watching for awhile as it has showed some very bullish signs, t's just been a matter of a tactical entry.

 UNG daily bullish descending wedge, these have been forming lateral bases lately after they pop out of the wedge rather then follow Technical Analysis textbook patterns and just breaking out to the upside. I believe this is an example of Wall Street using expectations of technical traders against them.

 The daily 3C chart has been VERY strong for a long time, showing this to be accumulation and a base that is much bigger then anything we have seen recently.

 UNG 60 min positive divergence

 30 min leading positive divergence

 15 min leading positive divergence

 10 mn positive divergence at the bottom-short term base.

The long term 2 min chart shows a new leading positive high. I believe UNG is very close if not at stage 2) mark up, which happens after an equity breaks out of a base.

I like UNG a lot in this area and would consider it a buy, however you must make sure to use risk management as always and allow for a wide stop as bases, like tops, can be very volatile.

USO Update

 USO 1 min negative divergence, this is pretty common to see on a trend reversal,(moving up) as Wall Street sells in to demand and strength and the divergences have to start somewhere, it is on the 1 min hart and progresses.

 USO 5 min is in a leading positive divergence with a negative divergence today, I would like to see an intraday/daily pullback in USO in order to go long there.

 USO 10 min in a leading positive divergence with a slight negative divergence today.

 USO 15 min leading positive divergence, very strong, you can also see the accumulation at the short term base at the white arrows.

USO 15 min 3C depth chart. The recent positive divergence is a fairly large base compared to the past rallies, it is also in a leading positive divergence.

As mentioned before, any pullback in USO soon, for me is a buying opportunity.

GLD UPDATE

 GLD 1 min

 GLD 2 min

 GLD 5 min

GLD 10 min-in line.

It appears as if GLD is going to make an intraday move higher. The 10-15 and 30 min charts still look very bullish

The Euro

 This correlation isn't as strong as it was a week ago, but the FXE/Euro moving higher, should take the market higher and there's a slight positive divergence.

The 5 min chart below is in line. Any parabolic move higher and I would like to take some profit in to that as they often reverse n the short term.

Possible pop up?

 The 3C TICK chart looks like there's going to be a pop up, this might be a nice place to take some $$$

 Also look at the 10 min Bollinger bands, this suggests a directional move, but doesn't give us the direction.

 This is a fairly tight stop on the DIA with my Trend Channel at $118.50

And wider at $118.

A very tight stop would be $118.75, but personally, I would only use the tight stops as places to take partial profits.

Action

Yeah,  think I'll lock in about 25% of my longs here, again, I'm more hoping to catch a pullback then anything else. Nothing goes straight up or down in the market.

Market Update

There's some decent distribution going on today, there's two possibilities sticking out in my head, 1) is like the last uptrend where we had a day or two of accumulation, a move higher for 2 days and then a new low and a few more days of accumulation and then a rally, which was the last rally we had in this consolidation area on the daily chart. 2) Would be this is just normal distribution of the trend.

The volume and flat trading range are hallmarks of accumulation and distribution, in this case distribution.

 DIA 1 min distribution with a slight area of accumulation, perhaps an intraday move higher coming.

 DIA 5 min in a slight leading negative divergence.

 DIA 10 min mostly in line, 15 min harts are in line so far.

 QQQ 1 min, negative divergence/distribution-remember it will always start on the short term charts first and work its way to the longer term charts like 10-15 min or longer.

 QQQ 5 min leading negative divergence.

 QQQ 10 min negative divergence

 SPY 1 min negative divergence

 spy 5 min negative divergence

 SPY 10 min negative divergence

 SPY 15 min is in line

Here's the SPY 5 min 3C depth chart, you can see the crest/distribution has picked up quite a bit today, however it is still below previous tops and this was a stronger accumulation cycle so I would expect the crest to be deeper then past rallies and the distribution in to them.

Just because of the flat trade and neg. divergences, I'm considering taking a little off the table, but it is more in hopes that I may be able to buy the positions back at better prices on a pullback. So far there's now pullback, just a flat range. The bulk of my position I would still hold on to. I haven't made a decision about this as of yet, just considering it. Each person has to consider the profits they have and whether they want to start to lock some in. I have found that phasing in and out of trades, just lke Wall Street does, has kept me at a profit and allowed me to lock in a profitable trade, no matter what may happen to the last 20 % of the trade I still have on.

Europe Really DIDN'T Like Tim's Visit

Another news item that seemed to have came an went was Geithner's visit to Europe to advise them as to what they should do. It seems at least the German's are still chaffed.

German Finance Minister says the following:

*SCHAEUBLE SAYS `WILL NOT SPEND OUR WAY' OUT OF CRISIS

*SCHAEUBLE SAYS `SOLIDARITY HAS LIMITS,' REQUIRES RETURN EFFORTS

*SCHAEUBLE SAYS `IMMEDIATE FISCAL REFORMS ARE OF THE ESSENCE'

several rebukes of US economic policy and more directly to Geithner...

*SCHAEUBLE SAYS EASIER TO GIVE ADVICE THAN TAKE IT!!!

*SCHAEUBLE SAYS INCREASING EFSF WOULD DAMAGE SOME AAA RATINGS

S&P didn't think they could downgrade the US sovereign rating without reprisals did they?

If so, they were fools. And this is how business gets done in Washington. I just posted how the FADRAL RASERVE will be ease dropping on anyone blog or media outlet mentioning their name-thus my creative spelling.

You want to know why?

Take a look at the SEC's action against S&P rating's agency

One may be excused to think this chapter of history was over and it probably was, that is until the S&P dared tread where the other rating's agencies know not to tread.

Here's an excerpt from the article:

"U.S. securities regulators are zeroing in on the use by Standard & Poor's of fictitious "dummy" assets when it assigned a triple-A credit rating to a $1.6 billion mortgage-bond deal that imploded during the financial crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter.

S&P's parent company, McGraw-Hill Cos., said Monday that it had received a so-called Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission. A Wells notice is the agency's warning to financial institutions that they could face civil charges. McGraw-Hill said the SEC is weighing civil enforcement action against the firm for its ratings on a collateralized debt obligation called Delphinus CDO 2007-1 issued in July 2007 as the housing market was taking a turn for the worse."

Some might call that intimidation and reprisal, I would say it's business as usual. Don't fight the FAD or the gov.

GLD Update

Gold and Silver are so manipulated -(just refer o the Dodd-Frank legislation that made OTC trading in both illegal and put nearly all PM trading under the corrupt reign of the Comex's relentless margin hikes) I am very careful about trading them, you just never know when word will come down to the CMe and the next margin hike will hit.

 GLD 1 min negative divergence

 GLD 5 min negative divergence

 GLD 10 min positive leading divergence

 DIA 15 min positive leading divergence.

 GLD 5 min 3C depth chart indicates a decent round of accumulation eight where I expected it, at the 150 day moving average. It would seem that this trough of accumulation is just getting started as far as the view beyond intraday-however, we never know when a margin hike may hit. The 1/5 min divergences could be a tell, or they could be nothing.

The 15 min GLD chart shows another area that suggests a decent area of accumulation not seen since June.

 have a small position in DGP, I'll probably let it ride, but I have considered taking profits to try to re-establish it at a lower price. I believe though I will take the longer view and just leave it for now.